Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at beautiful Belmont Park in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Saratoga Track Trends | Aqueduct Track Trends

2023

Sunday, July 9

Fast ( Sloppy / sealed - 9th ) / Firm ( Good - Widener - 8th )

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

The Main Track played fairly. With heavy rain coming right before the 8th, the track was sloppy and sealed for the 9th. The Widener, softened by rain for the 8th, seemed to play fairly. Saving ground likely continued to be an advantage on the Inner.

Saturday, July 8

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH South

The Main Track likely played fairly, with most of the best running done a bit off the rail, but there is limited evidence at best that the rail was off. The Widener Turf played fairly. With the rails down for the first time on the Inner since 6/11, saving ground for at least of a portion of the race was more than beneficial.

Friday, July 7

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

Speed did well in three of the four dirt races, and the rail was fine, but likely the track was fair. The rails were at 27 feet on both turf courses. Speed did well, but likely it was somewhat situation with the courses playing fairly overall.

Tuesday, July 4

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Yielding

Cloudy - Intermittent showers

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

Heavy rain about an hour before the 1^st race turned the track sloppy and the Turf courses Yielding to Good. The Main Track played fairly, with horses running well inside and outside, and speed and closers doing well. The turf courses continued to play fairly.

Monday, July 3

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

Much of the effective running on the Main track was done well off the rail, but there is no evidence the rail is bad. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, July 2

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH South

The Main Track played fairly. The rail was good but not a clear advantage. The Widener played fairly. All three races on the Inner were won by the inside speed. It may have been more situational, slow paces etc, than any bias.

Saturday, July 1

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

The rails were at 0' on the Widener and 27' on the Inner. All courses appeared to play fairly. Even with the rails back to zero on the Widener for the first time since 6/11 the rail didn't appear to be a significant advantage, if one at all.

Sunday, June 25

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Saturday, June 24

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

Horses ran particularly well on the inside on the Main Track, and while it’s worth at least considering it was some advantage, enough horses ran well outside to suggest the course was mostly fair. The turf courses played fairly.

Friday, June 23

Fast / Firm

Cloudy ( minor showers )

792

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, June 22

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NE

The rail was good on the Main Track, but not a clear advantage, as overall the course played fairly. The rails were out 18 feet on both turf courses. Both races on the Inner were won wire to wire but there was no clear bias. Outside closers did well on the Widener, but once again it's hard to say it was a trend.

Sunday, June 18

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH West

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Saturday, June 17

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NW

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Friday, June 16

Muddy ( sealed ) / Firm

Cloudy/Showers

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

There was some intermittent rain early in the card. The turf courses were labeled Firm throughout the day, but after the first two races, they were much closer to Good. They also appeared to play fairly. The Main Track was sealed and most of the running was done off the inside and it's worth considering the inside was not a good place to be. Speed and closers were effective.

Thursday, June 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 25 MPH West

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly. The rails were out 9 feet on both turf courses.

Sunday, June 11

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SW

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The rail was good on both turf courses, but they played reasonably fairly, though it seemed to be a bigger advantage on the Inner Turf than the Widener.

Saturday, June 10

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SW

While there is no real evidence the rail was bad on the Main Track, see the Belmont Stakes, the vast majority of the best running was done towards the outside. Worth following perhaps. The rail continued to be helpful on the turf courses, but overall the courses seemed much more fair than Friday.

Friday, June 9

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

The rail on the Main Track was good, though not clearly an advantage, as overall the dirt played fairly. The rails were at zero for the first time, on each course, this year. There is a strong argument that the inside was a significant advantage.

Sunday, June 4

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH NE

All courses, dirt and turf, played fairly.

Saturday, June 3

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NE

The trend continues that much of the running on the Main Track was done outside but there is no real reason to suggest the rail was bad. The track appeared to play fairly, all courses, turf and dirt.

Friday, June 2

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

Most of the running on the Main Track was done off the rail but there's no real evidence the rail was bad. The Turf courses appeared to play fairly as well.

Thursday, June 1

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Monday, May 29

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH East

While most of the running on the Main Track was, once again, done off the inside, there is no evidence the rail was bad. In fact, based on the 9 ^th race, the rail was likely just fine. The turf courses continue to play fairly.

Sunday, May 28

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

While arguably the Main Track had a bit of an outside flow, and it may have, the winner of the 1 ^st rode the rail, and given most riders stayed off the inside, it's hard to say the rail was bad. The turf courses continue to play fairly.

Saturday, May 27

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

With logical results throughout the day, and a mix of running styles, it's fair to say all surfaces, dirt and turf, played fairly.

Friday, May 26

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

There were only three dirt races and likely the Main Track played fairly though most of the running was done off the rail. The turf courses played fairly though forwardly placed horses dominated the mostly logical results.

Sunday, May 21

Good ( 1-4 ), Fast ( 5-9 )

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NW

Off the Turf after Saturday's rain. Almost all the running on the Main Track was done reasonably far off the rail. There is a fair argument that the rail was dead. Worth following.

Saturday, May 20

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Yielding ( 2^nd )

Rain

Wind 15 to 25 MPH East

It rained throughout the day with only the 2^nd remaining on the grass. There is an argument that speed was an advantage with few horses making up significant ground. Most riders avoided inside paths when possible. With one turf race there is no way to detect trends.

Friday, May 19

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH South

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, May 18

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SE

Most of the running on the Main Track was done off the rail, but some effective running was done inside ( 1 ^st race ), which suggests the track was fair. The rails were out 18 feet on the Inner and 9 feet on the Widener and both courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, May 14

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH North

The main track played fairly, as did the turf courses. Outside closers were effective on the Widener, but it didn't appear to be a prevailing bias.

Saturday, May 13

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

The Main Track played fairly. There is an argument that closers had an edge on the Turf, especially the Widener, but it may have had much more to do with race dynamics, and who the horses were, than any bias. Still, perhaps some food for thought.

Friday, May 12

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SW

All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, May 11

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SW

The Main track played fairly though it's possible the best running was done at least a little off the rail. Might be worth following. Not a Dead Rail situation. The rails were out 9 feet on the Inner and 27 on the Widener. Both courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, May 7

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH West shifting the 10 to 20 MPH SW

All courses, dirt and turf, appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, May 6

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH West

The Main Track continues to play fairly with riders seemingly staying at least a little off the rail, though there isn't evidence the rail was bad. The turf courses, listed as firm for the first time, seemed to play fairly.

Friday, May 5

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH South

While most of the best running was done a path or two off the main track, horses once again ran well enough inside to suggest the track was fair. One turf race, again on each course, and they seemed to play fairly but it's hard to really know.

Thursday, May 4

Muddy ( sealed ) / Good

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH NE

The Main Track appeared to play relatively fairly. Speed and closers did fine, and while runners seemed to stay a little off the rail, enough ran decently inside to suggest the inside was fine. There was one race on each turf course, making it hard to suggest any biases or trends. With the rails out 35 feet all week on the Inner Turf, the distances are considered "about" and the fractions should be taken with a grain of salt.

Previous Years' Track Trends:

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017