by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 5 - 11
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 9 - 11 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 1 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
I’m not trying to beat Kerry (#2), who figures to vie for favoritism in this first-level allowance as she returns from a layoff. She was in great form on this circuit last year, advancing through her New York-bred allowance conditions last summer before trying this level a couple of times last fall. She didn’t finish far behind Loon Cry in either of those races, and that rival would be strong favorite in this spot. She has obviously been disappointing in two starts since then, but I can make excuses for those races. She was off a bit slowly and checked in the early stages two back while always out of position. That was also a much tougher field than this. Then last time she chased a fast pace going two turns, which doesn’t really suit her. I like her turning back to 6 furlongs and returning to this racetrack. She appears to be working well for her return from a layoff and drew well with tactical speed. Her main rival on paper is Masterof the Tunes (#4), but she’s a little tougher for me to trust as a win candidate. She has done much of her best running lately when she’s gotten more aggressive rides going longer, but she’s forced to come from farther off the pace in these sprints. I also wonder if she’s going to need one off the layoff, as she did last year. Risk Free (#5) might be a more interesting alternative at a much bigger price. She actually ran fine in both of her prior turf races, and put in a good effort last July at Belmont when she tried the surface most recently. Perhaps 7 furlongs was a little far for her that day as she got there in the late stages and was run down. That’s the real issue for her, since she typically runs well but just so rarely comes out on top.
Fair Value:
#2 KERRY, at 3-2 or greater
RACE 6
Carson’s Run (#2) is undoubtedly the class of this field as he makes his 3-year-old debut while returning from a layoff. This horse displayed quality right from the start, beating a strong field to break his maiden at Saratoga before just missing to the precocious filly Gala Brand in the With Anticipation. He seemingly put it all together in that Grade 1 Summer at Woodbine, launching a strong rally from last to first to win going away. He didn’t perform as well in the Breeders’ Cup, but he was breaking from the far outside post position and never had great position. Now he returns in an appropriate spot, and seems to have a good foundation under him, with a steady series of workouts. Walley World (#6) appears to be one of his main rivals as he returns to the New York circuit after racing once over the winter at Tampa. He lost to a very nice horse in Full Nelson, who came right back to win the Columbia in his next start with a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This colt showed some talent even as a 2-year-old, but will need to take a slight step forward off the short layoff. Elysian Meadows (#7) has some upside trying the turf for the first time. He wasn’t disgraced in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, splitting the field in sixth. Yet he probably needs this class relief, and he’s also bred to move forward on turf. He’s by City of Light, who has had success as a turf sire, and is out of a dam who achieved her only victory on grass. The only drawback is that Bill Mott is 0 for 41 over the past 5 years with non-maidens trying turf for the first time, with just 4 horses hitting the board. My top pick is The Big Torpedo (#5). This colt has also been racing on dirt recently, but he actually made his career debut on the turf back in November of last year. That race was going 6 furlongs, but he ran well to stay on for second behind a filly who was able to set slow fractions up front. He’s clearly improved on dirt since then, and arguably might have won that lucrative stallion series stakes in December without significant trouble in upper stretch. Yet he still strikes me as one that may ultimately be better on the turf, and it’s possible that he’s simply gotten better with added distance. Now he gets to go long on turf for the first time, and he should get a forward trip sitting just of the two speeds drawn inside of him.
Fair Value:
#5 THE BIG TORPEDO, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
Overacting (#1) was the rare Chad Brown first time starter to go off at a price on debut, as she overcame the widest draw to win in enterprising front-running fashion. That race was run just as a storm was brewing, which may have affected the race flow, as it was dominated up front; she subsequently went favored twice against winners and lost both times despite running well. She was arguably best two back when racing wide throughout, but was unable to turn the tables on rival Snowy Evening when heavily favored last time. She did go 3-wide on the turns, but ultimately had her chance and had to work to hold second over an inferior rival. She might have the opportunity to control this race up front, but I won’t be surprised if we see more speed from Being Betty (#6), who was unwisely rated last time and showed sprint speed in her maiden victory. The race could also change in Firsttimeinforever (#11) draws in off the AE list. She’s a rare New York starter for California-based Leonard Powell, and will be making her first ever start against state-breds. She obviously fits on speed figures, but she does have to overcome the wide draw as a stalking type. Stella Mars (#9) ran plenty of races last year that would put her in the mix against a group like this before tailing off at the end of the season. Yet now she returns switching into the barn of Mike Maker, so it would be surprise if she returns to top form. My top pick is Roagna (#8). H. James Bond had been trying to get this filly into a turf race for quite some time, first entered all the way back in July at Saratoga when rained off, before finally getting her chance in November. She broke a step slowly, and was last out of the chute. She saved ground on the first turn, but angled widest of all on the backstretch and continued a 4 to 5-wide advance on the far turn. Despite losing all that ground, she still found another gear to kick away late in an impressive performance. She now returns from a planned layoff right on schedule. Bond doesn’t have the best stats off layoffs, but he is 9 for 43 (21%, $3.43 ROI) with last-out maiden winners over 5 years. She was ready to fire fresh in the fall, and I’m expecting her to show up with another strong effort.
Fair Value:
#8 ROAGNA, at 5-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 10 - 6
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 10 - 13
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 10 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
This $32k claimer is one of the trickiest races on the card, and a great deal of the uncertainty centers around Dangerous Ride (#7), who could go favored. This horse was entered in a $40k claimer sprinting two weeks ago, scratched from that spot, and now resurfaces here for a slightly lower price tag stretching out. There is no doubt that he has faced better horses in some recent starts, especially last time when he caught a tough optional claiming field at Gulfstream. However, the distance is a concern even though he projects to be forward in a race without much pace. The pace situation could really compromise a closer like Bossmakinbossmoves (#2). Though, to his credit, he did overcome a slow pace to win two back on Feb. 29, albeit over a track that featured an outside flow. I won’t hold his last race against him, since Mar. 30 was a day when it was nearly impossible to close from well off the pace. He has prior form that makes him competitive here, and Tom Morley is a solid 19 for 84 (23%, $2.13 ROI) second off the claim over 5 years. I’ve been of the opinion that Thunderian (#5) has been underrated through his recent starts, and I don’t think I’ve been wrong about him. He put in a solid effort at a big price two back and then nearly got the job done at a generous 9-1 last time. He might have won that race if there was a little more pace signed on. I’m reticent to pick him again now that his form is more exposed, but it’s not as if he figures to be a short price going out for lower profile connections. This is just a tougher spot than last time. The rise in class is also a concern for my top pick First Glimpse (#3), who competed in that same Mar. 29 race at this level. Prior to that he ran pretty well on Mar. 7 when trying to close over a speed-biased surface. He subsequently dropped slightly last time, and encountered another bias, this time racing wide over a track that was favoring rail runners. He’s now been claimed by Wayne Potts, and moves up in class against a tougher field. I think he’s capable of better than his recent results indicate, and he certainly has the back class to beat a group like this. It was a tough call between these top two selections, and I’ll let price be the guide.
Fair Value:
#3 FIRST GLIMPSE, at 4-1 or greater
#5 THUNDERIAN, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 5
This N1X allowance turf event drew a large field, but there’s definitely some filler in here and it’s not that hard to narrow down the contenders. Some might put So High (#1) in that category based on his superior speed figures. Yet this horse is best over marathon distances when he can make use of his early speed. He’s tried this drop in class during the last year and has not been able to translate his form to this level. He ran decently in a similar spot last November but he got a dream trip that day and still could do no better than third. Among the short prices, I have much more faith in Going Concern (#6). This 4-year-old gelding by Kingman took money and delivered on debut, getting a good education in the process. He got pace to close into, but was put in tight quarter along the inside before squeezing through in the late stages. His 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure is solid, and that appeared to be an unusually strong Tampa maiden event based on the limited runbacks. We have seen these types improve off Tampa debuts for Chad Brown in the past, so it would be no surprise if he takes a step forward. Other rivals with more experience to consider include Samburu (#11) and Ruse (#13) The former has some class questions to answer, and Ruse just isn’t a winning type who might prefer slightly shorter than this. Landbiscuit (#10) is perhaps a better option at a bigger price. He ran well in his final start last year and is spotted appropriately off the layoff for Bruce Brown. I just want to go in a different direction with first time turfer Authorize (#5). Going all the way back to this 5-year-old’s debut some 3 years ago, I had made the note that he moved like a turf horse, given that stretch and suspension to his stride. He ran so well on debut that it’s no surprise he’s been campaigned on dirt ever since, but it’s clear that he lacks consistency on that surface. There are turf influences going deeper into his female family. Now he switches over to grass for Bill Mott, who has absolutely abysmal stats doing this. Mott is 0 for 40, just 4 hitting the board, with non-maiden first time turfers over the past 5 years. That’s obviously a negative, but I still think this horse may appreciate the surface switch and the price figures to be fair.
Fair Value:
#5 AUTHORIZE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 6
Likely favorite Instamatic (#1) didn’t exactly live up to the hype last year, going off at short prices in all three starts and now still a maiden. He did have a legitimate excuse on debut when getting off to a poor start before making up mild late ground. He was more professional in his second start, but failed to seal the deal after forging to a slight lead before the line. He then tried to stretch out in November and showed speed while tracking wide every step of the way before getting overhauled late. That was probably his best effort, and it came going longer than this, so it’s interesting that he turns back off the layoff. Danny Gargan is 14 for 55 (25%, $2.24 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days over 5 years. He returns as a new gelding getting Lasix, and drew well. I just expect him to get overbet once again. Art of Courage (#3) is the other horse with turf experience who figures to take money. He went off at a big price in his turf debut and led most of the way while cutting out taxing fractions, only to get nailed in the final strides by a closer. It’s not a great sign that he’s subsequently been off for 11 months, but he’s obviously a contender if he returns in top form. Among the first time starters, Allofasuddenlee (#4) may be the most dangerous. He’s by low-profile sire Superestrella, who has had success with turf sprint progeny, most of which are trained by Rob Falcone. He’s training well for the debut and attracts Manny Franco for a trainer who can have them ready to fire first time out. My top pick is a horse switching back over to turf. Charles J (#7) was ambitiously spotted against winners in an open company race on debut last year. He got into a good, ground-saving position from a wide draw, and just stayed on at one pace late. Yet he earned a solid speed figure and the winner Tocayo went on to win a stakes at Gulfstream, so it was a strong race. He has subsequently regressed in two dirt starts at this maiden level, but he ran better than the result might indicate last time. He had good forward position, but got shuffled back behind a tiring runner into the far turn before his rider just eased him late. He is obviously bred for turf, and should appreciate getting back on that surface here. It’s a good sign to see Dylan Davis take the mount, and he shows a lively worktab for the return.
Fair Value:
#7 CHARLES J, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
It’s pretty clear that Quick to Accuse (#7) will be tough to beat if he runs as well as in his first start for the Brad Cox barn. He only got a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that visually impressive performance, but the number was significantly downgraded due to the slow pace from a 116 final time number. That downgrade seems a little excessive for a horse who rallied from a couple of lengths back, but he did get a perfect split up the inside on the turn. He now has to stretch out to a mile, but that’s not supposed to be an issue for a horse who has handled this distance in the past. His main rival appears to be Locke and Key (#5), who is also coming off some of the best efforts of his career. He finally won his N1X allowance condition two back with a strong late kick, and then ran well when moved up to this level last time. He was finishing best of all late into a slow pace where winner Donegal Surges got the jump on him. He’s been campaigned as a sprinter recently, but he has handled more ground in the past and looks like a horse who should relish this distance. I’m not against either one of these, but I do think there is one alternative who could fly under the radar. Majestic Frontier (#2) looks a cut below those two based on his two performances since the Wayne Potts claim. Yet there are clear excuses for both of those races. He had no chance to close on Mar. 30 over an intensely speed-favoring surface. Then last time he encountered a pretty slow pace going a distance that is too short for him. He actually did well to just miss second that day. Now he moves up in class despite those minor disappointments getting back to a distance that is more suitable for him. I think he’s underrated and will be the right price in a race where the two favorites are likely to attract most of the support.
Fair Value:
#2 MAJESTIC FRONTIER, at 8-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 6 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
Lucency (#6) is clearly the horse to beat in this opener as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. The drop does seem a little hasty off one poor effort, since he just lost a head bob at the N1X allowance level merely two starts ago. It’s also easy to make an excuse for his last race, where he was meeting an unusually tough field for the level. He’s probably going to get claimed here, so there are some red flags. I do think he ran well in that Feb. 10 affair, but it’s not as if his surrounding races make him untouchable against this group. Masterwork (#4) seems like the most obvious alternative, since he was running well at the tougher starter allowance level two and three back. He put in a better effort than it might appear on Jan. 12 when he was too keen behind rivals early before encountering some traffic when attempting to angle out in the stretch. Then last time he missed the start and had to rush up to set a fast pace before paying the price late. I like him turning back to a mile here, but he’s been a vet scratch since that last start and I wonder if he has it all together mentally. My top pick is Barnstorming (#5), one of two Linda Rice trainees in this race. He’s been a tough read since coming into this barn, since he showed ability for Brad Cox but has been inconsistent for Rice. He ran well on Jan. 17 at a higher level, but then disappointed two back, albeit utilizing a more aggressive style that may not have worked for him. Then last time he failed to get the job done dropping down, but still ran well and perhaps might have won had Eric Cancel been able to maneuver him outside. That race only got a 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but horses have come back to run well out of that spot. I like that Rice is moving him back up in class, and the outside draw should help.
Fair Value:
#5 BARNSTORMING, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 5
The key to this race is likely favorite Smokie Eyes (#4). She looks formidable based on that last dirt race from December where she earned a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure at this level. I just have to wonder if she’s truly a dirt horse, or if that performance was some kind of fluke. She’s spent most of her career on turf and her lone prior dirt attempt, albeit in the mud, was quite poor. That last race was hardly flattered when winner Bernt Again came back to lose at 8-5, regressing significantly. This filly was sold in January for $140k and now goes out for Bill Mott, who does reasonably well off trainer switches like this. Yet I don’t think it’s a great sign that her prior connections put her up for sale even after she proved herself to be versatile enough to win on dirt. I’m mildly against her at what figures to be a very short price. I see two possible alternatives to this favorite. The more obvious of the two is probably Scoring Chance (#1). This filly was a vet scratch on Mar. 28 when entered in a tougher race for the level, and now catches an easier spot against a smaller field. She earned a competitive speed figure on debut, getting a good trip, saving ground early over a track that was kind to inside runners. Yet she went clear going 7 furlongs as if a little added distance won’t be an issue. Last time she was always outrun on the cutback, and never had great position. Good Magic is a 20% dirt route sire, and the dam has produced one dirt route winner, so I can take a positive view. My top pick is Echo in Eternity (#5). She faced some good ones in her maiden losses, as Angelique and Timely Conquest went to beat allowance company with improved speed figures, and no one was touching 14-length winner Speightful Lily when she came off the layoff. She finally found a field she could handle last time and gradually wore down the leader before holding on late. The final time looks slow, but she got a pace-upgraded 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure, since she was attending some quick early splits. I actually like her stretching out, and have always wanted to see her try longer distances. She’s out of a dam who wanted to run all day, even as far as marathon distances, and her best sibling is multiple dirt route winner Ice Princess. She has worked well since that victory and might still have some upside third off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#5 ECHO IN ETERNITY, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
I didn’t want to settle for short prices on the likely favorites here. Lake Abanakee (#5) figures to attract support off her debut win earlier this month, but she’s coming back just 12 days after that race. I didn’t think she beat the strongest field, aside from a well-bet but disappointing Brad Cox first time starter. She’s stepping up into a tougher race and figures to be the default option for many. The Jorge Abreu entry is also likely to go off at a short price, since both halves offer some appeal. Weekend Rags (#1) is more of a turf horse but has run well on dirt before. Highway Harmony (#1A) is a little more appealing as she gets back on a fast track for the first time since her maiden win over two years ago. Yet neither one will offer value paired together. Easy Play (#6) typically goes off at a price at this level, and it’s been some time since she’s hit the board. However, she’s run better than it might appear a few times this winter and spring. That was the case when chasing a fast pace two back, and she even stayed on well last time after racing out of position early. She should display more speed here switching to Manny Franco. My top pick is George’s Vice (#4). She looks uncompetitive based on recent form, but that makes it all the more strange that Linda Rice is running here. She would typically not hesitate to drop a runner like this in for a tag, especially considering that she ran her for $16k back in December. Yet Rice is persisting with her at this state-bred allowance level, so she obviously seems more potential than is apparent on paper. This filly did at least show a new dimension last time, intentionally taken off the pace before launching a mild rally to mid-stretch. She had to alter course behind a drifting foe and lost momentum late, but it was a step in the right direction. She might have more upside and is catching a pretty soft field for the level.
Fair Value:
#4 GEORGE'S VICE, at 7-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 7 - 10 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 4 - 8
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
There are four primary contenders in this allowance race and they all have their merits, but I have some doubts about three of them. Quiet Wisdom (#2) always seems to get overbet, and he finally delivered last time. However, he was facing an overmatched field that day and couldn’t help but win. He hadn’t run nearly as fast in prior starts, and I didn’t think he performed any better than Land d’Oro when they met two back. Brick Ambush (#4) showed talent early on, but I wonder if he’s gone on developing as a 3-year-old after losing his last couple of races at short prices. Boss Three O Two (#5) could be perceived by some as the one with the most upside in his second career start, but I wonder if he really wants to go this far. He has more of a sprint pedigree and moves like one that may ultimately want turf, so I’m skeptical that this is the right spot. Given my opinions on that aforementioned trio, it becomes pretty easy for me to select a top pick. Land d’Oro (#3) is a horse that I’ve had some interest in since the beginning of his career. I highlighted his debut on the Horses to Watch show I host for Daily Racing Form, since he had some minor trouble that day. He showed decent tactical speed but was against the race flow as he got shuffled back behind tiring runners on the turn before staying on late. He benefited from that experience second time out, improving to cause the upset at an overlaid price. He cut back to 7 furlongs that day, but he strikes me as the kind of horse that wants every bit of this one-mile trip, if not farther down the line. His 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up very favorably against his main rivals, and that performance was flattered when Silver Satin and Schlomo returned to run so well completing the exacta in a fast maiden race yesterday.
Fair Value:
#3 LAND D'ORO, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 3
I originally wasn’t going to pick against Run Devil (#7), who is obviously the horse to beat as she gets significant class relief. Yet she is just so obvious in this spot and figures to be an extremely short price. The more I thought about it, I just wasn’t comfortable recommending her as a strong lean in the early part of this card given her propensity to lose races even when she looks like a logical contender. She usually runs well, but she hasn’t crossed the wire first in a long time, not since she was in George Weaver’s barn back in early 2023. She drew well towards the outside as a horse with early speed, but I think we could see some aggression from the likes of Jolly Miss Jill (#2) and Sweet as Sugar (#4), especially as the latter stretches out in distance. I’m not convinced Run Devil can sustain pressure and fight for a victory, and I’m a little concerned that she sometimes doesn’t run the turns that well. Looking back at that Mar. 1 affair, I didn’t think Run Devil ran that much better than today’s rival Suspended Campaign (#3), who went off at a massive price that day. Suspended Campaign got an unexpectedly aggressive ride to put mild pressure on the leader early before fading a bit late, but she still held on for third in an improved effort off the claim for this low-profile barn. Then last time she had no chance against a tougher field, trying to close over a heavily speed-biased track. She is also getting appropriate class relief, and she might sit the right trip from mid-pack this time. At the very least, she seems like the best value play in a race where the logical favorite may be overbet.
Fair Value:
#3 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 5
I could see Big Prankster (#4) going favored in this intriguing New York-bred allowance that drew a full field. He obviously showed ability in his last couple of starts on dirt. I don’t love that he could take money based on that dirt form, though he did handle the turf well on debut. I just question his overall ability, since I don’t think much of the turf field he faced and he does have to get faster off the layoff for a barn whose runners sometimes need a start. Among those with turf form, Icy Flavor (#11) and Russi (#6) both finished off their 2023 campaigns well, finishing second and third in the same Nov. 11 race. However, Icy Flavor might have tailed off over the winter and has a tough post position to overcome, whereas Russi has to be ready to go off the layoff. Looking back at that Nov. 11 affair, I’m more interested in Kreesa (#10), who finished further back in the pack. He encountered some minor traffic when having to alter course in the lane, and he’s supposed to get an honest pace up front as one of the few closers in this field. He also should go off at a square price as he returns for lower profile connections. Yet I think there are two horses trying the turf for the first time who must be considered. The one who figures to attract more support is Slammin Gold (#7), who has obvious turf pedigree. His dam Bar of Gold is best known as upset winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint on dirt, but she was also a talented turf horse. Her best foal is this colt’s full-sibling Coinage, who is a turf stakes winner. Slammin Gold has shown ability on dirt but has probably needed this surface switch. My top pick is Li’l Lang (#5), who also tries grass for the first time. He ran better than it might appear on debut, racing on the rail when that perhaps wasn’t the best path. In his second start, he got bumped at the start and put in tight before rushing up to chase 2 to 3-wide against an extreme rail bias. He switched to Jorge Abreu for his drop in class two back, and won easily against overmatched rivals. Stepped up against winners last time, he held his own after chasing the pace. He clearly has to improve on turf to beat a field like this, but he strikes me as one that will really appreciate this surface switch. His dam won her only turf start sprinting on this circuit, and her only other foal ran his best speed figures on turf despite not winning on the surface. Yet what really attracts me to this colt is his action. He just moves like a turf horse, picking up his knees and showing that suspension to his stride that is typical of grass horses. He should fly under the radar here and I think he’s going to outrun his odds.
Fair Value:
#5 LI'L LANG, at 8-1 or greater
#7 SLAMMIN GOLD, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 6
At first glance, Aunt Yola (#1) might look like a logical sort in this maiden event. She broke slowly on debut before putting in a decent run for fourth, and then progressed in her second start, improving her speed figure. However, she had every chance to win that race, and was just slow to wear down the leader before getting passed from behind in the late stages. She’s still not the quickest away from the gate, so I worry about her breaking from the rail in a race that doesn’t feature much pace. Calling an Audible (#2) might be the one to beat based on her recent form, though I understand some reticence to take her, since she’s settled for minor awards in all of her recent dirt starts. I thought she ran better than Five to Two (#5) when they met on April 6 since she had to navigate some traffic towards the inside and was finish well at 6 furlongs, which might be too short for her. Perhaps a new face like Purpose (#7) can show some speed on debut. H. James Bond isn’t known for having his first time starters cranked up to win, but this filly is out of a dam who ran one of her fastest races first time out. She was entered to race and scratched in February, so she’s been ready to run for a while. It does seem like a good sign that Javier Castellano takes the mount. My top pick is Ekwanok (#4). She’s another lacking much early speed, but at least she’s going to be a more enticing price. This filly ran some decent races last year, including when closing for third second time out at Saratoga. She subsequently caught a speed-favoring track on Sep. 28 before going to the sidelines. She returned for Mark Hennig this winter and ran better than the result might suggest. She got stymied along the inside in traffic on the turn, and was mildly shuffled back before making a belated rally. She should appreciate getting back on a fast track here, and didn’t run that much slower than the main players in here as a 2-year-old.
Fair Value:
#4 EKWANOK, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
This Plenty of Grace presents a problem for me, because I don’t really want to pick any of the turf horses, since they all have flaws. It's also a far less interesting race after some key scratches. Each of the Chad Brown runners figure to attract strong support, but I don’t trust either one of them off layoffs. Midnight Mile (#1) had shown some talent early in her career, closing for fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2022. However, she never really panned out last year, and achieved her best result going much farther than this over good-to-soft ground. She feels like one who is just getting her campaign started and might not be cranked up to win going a mile. Marvelous Maude (#6) might be the preferred of the two Brown runners since Manny Franco lands here. However, she’s also a little tough to trust coming off the layoff going a distance that might be short of her best. I know she won going a mile when last seen nearly a year ago, but she was only narrowly beating the NY-bred Runaway Rumour when that one was perhaps past her best form. Spirit and Glory (#3) will attract support off her Al Stall Memorial win two back, but she benefited from a perfect trip in a race where others got les than savvy rides. The longer I looked at this race, I ended up settling for a horse I didn’t expect to like. Sunset Louise (#2) has plenty of questions to answer as she tries turf for the first time while also returning from a layoff. However, the connections reportedly wanted to get her on turf a couple of times last year, and were thwarted by the weather. Analyzing her pedigree for turf, many will point out her full-sibling The Reds as evidence she isn’t bred for grass, but this dam actually ran decently on turf and she’s primarily produced turf horses outside of that best sibling. This mare shows an extensive worktab for her return, so she should be fit. Racing off Lasix is a minor concern given her record in stakes races, but turf can sometimes be easier on these types. She projects to be the clear speed in this race, and she doesn’t need to improve much on her best effort if she takes to the surface. She’s my best value option in a field full of flawed contenders.
Fair Value:
#2 SUNSET LOUISE, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1A - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 10 - 2 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
The two horses likely to attract the most support exit the same March 24 race going this distance. Silver Satin (#3) is the one to beat after finishing second that day, repeating the result from his encouraging debut a month earlier. He arguably might have won last time if not encountering some traffic in upper stretch, but he still stayed on gamely to just miss behind a colt who might possess some talent. Now Jorge Abreu adds blinkers as this horse seeks to take just a small step forward. Schlomo (#6) finished a couple places behind the favorite last time but might have run just as well in defeat. He took some money to go off at 7-1 in that spot, and ran well, making a premature move to lead in mid-stretch before tiring in the late stages. He should be fitter for this second attempt to go 7 furlongs. However, Bill Mott does have much better statistics with debut runners than he does with second time starting maidens. I’m actually interested in the third horse from that March 24 affair. Tomacon (#4) finished further back in the pack, checking in 10th at a big price. However, his performance was better than that result indicates. He was off slowly, which was a significant disadvantage in a 14-horse field. He actually showed good speed to rush up into mid-pack after that, traveling willingly down the backstretch. He continued to race in heavy traffic and stayed on gamely until mid-stretch, despite never reaching contention. He earned a solid 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, and should do better in his second start for David Duggan, whose runners tend to improve with experience. He adds blinkers, and I would expect him to show a lot more speed here provided he gets a clean start.
Fair Value:
#4 TOMACON, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 4
I’m not thrilled with the remaining half of the Jamie Ness entry, Edge of Glory (#1A). He would have been tough for this field to handle at one point, but he hasn’t looked like the same horse since returning from a layoff this winter, and he also isn’t getting as much class relief as it might appear. I much prefer the local contingent. Winning Connection (#6) is clearly the horse to beat among those, as any of his races from earlier this winter would make him too tough for this field to handle. His last race is of some concern, since he ran so poorly. Yet the rail might not have been the place to be on Feb. 29 and he was always inside while fading. I don’t love that he’s dropping off the claim for Michelle Nevin, but the class relief might wake him up again. My top pick is Union Lights (#3). This gelding has been in pretty strong form since the Wayne Potts claim, running three of the best races of his entire career. He held his own against a tougher group two back going a distance that may be too short for him. Then last time, he was chasing outside against a minor rail bias while trying to run down a vastly superior heavy favorite. He doesn’t have to launch from as far back as some others in here, so he should get a decent trip. He is getting a negative rider switch, but the apprentice takes some weight off and will help the price.
Fair Value:
#3 UNION LIGHTS, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 5
Grayosh (#1) looks like a heavy favorite in this spot as she is essentially a second time starter after losing the rider in the early stages of her last race. Her debut was a solid effort, easily the best turf race anyone in this field has run recently. There was no pace on ahead of her, as the two leaders just crawled through the early splits. She sat a decent trip tracking them, and just couldn’t get by in the lane as those two frontrunners sprinted for home to complete the exacta. Yet this filly did do some real running to get as close as she did, absolutely flying across the wire. She figures to be tough to beat even if she merely repeats that debut run. The only other horse to have run nearly as well on grass is Wish List (#8), but her best effort came over a year and half ago in her debut sprinting. She returned last fall with a couple of disappointing results, but she was bobbled at the start of that Oct. 28 affair, which put her out of position early before hitting her best stride belatedly. She then went to Turfway to stretch out in December, but got bounced around at the start before making some mild late progress. She might be better than her recent form suggests, but it’s fair to wonder how much upside she still has as a 5-year-old. I’m actually most interested in the other Chad Brown runner, Chantilly Road (#5). This expensive 2-year-old purchase was sent favored on debut at Tampa, where she rushed up from a slow start to show speed before fading. She stretched out to a mile last time, but got off to an awkward start, and wasn’t involved thereafter. Neither of those results are inspiring, but I’ve been waiting for her get on turf. Her best sibling is dirt route stakes winner Five Star General, but Quality Road is a solid turf influence. Watching her run, this filly has the fluid action and loping stride to suggest she should take to turf better than her pedigree suggests. Futhermore, Chad Brown is 16 for 61 (26%, $2.53 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time in maiden turf routes over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#5 CHANTILLY ROAD, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6
My primary opinion in this race is to take a shot against Clubhouse (#4), who will probably go favored off his superior set of speed figures. Yet he’s now catching a tougher field at this starter allowance level than he’s encountered in his recent starts. He got sent off as the even-money favorite last time, and couldn’t get the job done despite making the lead through moderate fractions. He’s been in good form, but I think his last race is slightly overrated, as we saw another pace player from that race, Messi the Magician, return to disappoint on Friday. I see two interesting alternatives to this horse. One of those is Nineteen Oysters (#6), who makes his first start off the claim by Rob Atras. This barn doesn’t have great statistics off the claim, but has been on a strong run in general so far this year. It’s a big trainer upgrade, and this gelding has also run slightly better than the speed figures suggest in his last two starts. He was never inside over a rail-biased course when he won two back, and last time he was always out of position racing out in the center of the track. He adds blinkers and is confidently moved up in class off the claim. My top pick is another horse going up in class. Upside Potential (#5) was debuted for a $40k tag by Chad Brown and ran a nice race to win professionally. He broke very sharply and got some education as Manny Franco allowed a rival to pass him on the backstretch before making an outside run. He finished strongly while beating a pair of rivals who had achieved some nice speed figures in the past. His 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort compares favorably to the aforementioned pair. Now he’s been claimed by Linda Rice, who is 17 for 59 (29%, $2.27 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners on dirt over 2 years. This feels like a potentially savvy acquisition of a horse that may have been undervalued on debut, and it’s a good sign that she protects him as he steps up against winners.
Fair Value:
#5 UPSIDE POTENTIAL, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this Danger’s Hour, the first turf stakes of the year in New York, sending out 3 of the top 4 choices on the morning line. The likely favorite is his Spirit of St Louis (#3), who has 4 of his 5 prior turf starts. All of those races came against New York-bred company, but he faced some tough rivals in those state-bred stakes events last year. He twice defeated the classy City Man in the fall at Aqueduct and now tries to extend his winning streak at this venue in his return from a layoff. His speed figures suggest he’s the one to beat, and he projects to get a good trip given his versatile running style. There is speed in here, and one of the Chad Brown runners, Masen (#1), figures to be setting the pace from the rail. He got keen when they attempted to rate him last time, and he should return to frontrunning tactics here. I’m just not quite convinced that he’s good enough to lead this field all the way, since he tired in the last furlong when trying a similar spot in the Artie Schiller here last fall. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is also predicting a fast early pace, but that is heavily dependent on the participation of Heaven Street (#4), who is cross-entered on Saturday at Laurel. Brown’s least accomplished entrant is Equitize (#5), who might have the most upside of these. However, he still has much to prove in just the fourth start of his career. He’s needed plenty of time between each prior start, and now comes off another short layoff after winning his seasonal debut at Tampa. He was dominant that day, but only earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and even that number seems generous since a few who finished behind him have since returned to regress. I would need a generous price to back him in this spot. My top pick is Dakota Gold (#7). He exits the same couple of races as Spirit of St. Louis, who defeated him in both the West Point and Mohawk. However, neither of those races set up well for this gelding. He trailed in the early stages of both events behind slow early paces. He was especially compromised in the Mohawk, where they crawled through the early stages, giving Spirit of St Louis a significant advantage. Those races were also contested over turf courses with give in the ground, and he seems much better on fast going. He was in excellent form when he returned from a layoff in the first half of last year, and I think he can return to form off another freshening. His trainer Danny Gargan is 14 for 55 (25%, $2.24 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#7 DAKOTA GOLD, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 9
With this race coming off the turf, I want to avoid the horses who are going to get bet based on turf form. Those include morning line favorite Beach Cruiser (#1), who didn’t run particularly well in her only dirt start and is an unknown over a harrowed track. The same goes for Astonesthrowaway (#5), who does have some dirt pedigree but was campaigned as a turf sprinter last year, and is a major question mark getting added ground on a more demanding surface. I had originally liked Bussia (#2) on turf, and she’s a little less appealing on dirt even though she broke her maiden on this surface last December. I believe she’s more of a turf horse, but I recognize she’s far from impossible in this depleted field, especially considering she was racing on a dead rail last time. I think Rumint (#10) is a valid option even though she’s coming of a poor effort. She faced a tougher field last time and now gets some class relief. I’m just a little concerned she might be a need the lead type, and she doesn’t figure to get in front of Concerti (#3) early. That Joe Sharp trainee is in a similar situation, dropping out of some tougher races. She gets Lasix for the first time, but I haven’t loved any of her prior starts and she needs to show a bit more stamina to beat this field. My top pick on dirt is Scarlet’s Dream (#4). I know it looks like her form has fallen apart since breaking her maiden, but I think she’s had valid excuses the last couple of times. She doesn’t strike me as a horse that really wants to go a mile, and she was also racing 4-wide against one of the strongest gold rails of the year on Jan. 19. Then last time, I felt you didn’t want to be right down on the rail over that Mar. 3 muddy track, and she spent her entire trip glued to the inside path. I suspect she’s a lot better than that, and she had previously run well to break her maiden in December. She finds herself in a realistic spot and should be able to rebound at a square price.
Fair Value:
#4 SCARLET'S DREAM, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 1/1A - 5 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 1A - 4
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 8: 8 - 9 - 3 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Dylan’s Ruby (#3) looks like the horse to beat in this starter optional claimer as he comes to New York following a pair of efforts at Parx. He debuted for a $50k tag and won impressively against overmatched competition, drawing off late. He then stepped up to face a tougher field of winners last time, risked for a $75k tag rather than racing for the allowance condition. He appeared to be struggling a bit on the turn but he again found his best stride late to run into a clear second, albeit no match for a runaway winner. He doesn’t need to improve much on that 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field, and it’s a good sign that the connections are now seeking out a protected spot in New York. The Linda Rice entry could vie for favoritism with that horse, but I’m not thrilled with either of her runners at the expected short price. Remember the Name (#1A) is probably the stronger of the two after he chased home some more advanced rivals at this level last time. He’s been off for 3 months, and I don’t love that he’s now in for the tag upon return. Yet this might just be an appropriate spot. Stormquist (#1) is a little tougher to trust after he failed to deliver first off the claim for this barn in January. He ran well to break his maiden last September, but it’s unclear if he’s progressed since then. My top pick is Mad Banker (#2). He comes off a poor effort in the Damon Runyon last time, but that was always going to be an ambitious spot for him. It would appear he was hustled into that small field to make it go, which tracks with the 7-day turnaround from his prior start. He’s now had some time to recover since then, and I think he has a chance to run back to his Mar. 10 effort. He got a field-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day chasing home the superior duo or Lotsa Trouble and Brick Ambush. He had been cycling up to that improved effort since the claim by Wayne Potts over the winter. That was also notably his only start with Lasix, which he gets again here for the first time since then. I like the rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy and view him as one of the primary contenders at a square price.
Fair Value:
#2 MAD BANKER, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
Chris Englehart sends out a pair of runners who could take money in this spot, and I’m not thrilled with either of them. I’m particularly skeptical of Waralo (#2), who starts to look a lot less appealing when you isolate his fast track races. He posted big speed figures on wet, sealed tracks on Nov. 1 and Jan. 13, but one of those efforts was at Finger Lakes, and he got to stalk a slow pace in the other in a race dominated by forward horses. He seemed to lack his usual early zip last time and there isn’t rain in the forecast, so I’m skeptical we’re going to see a return to top form here. Dr. Kraft (#1) seems more trustworthy, but he just doesn’t really win. He’s run well in most of his recent starts, but he’s settled for minor awards each time. I was hoping to see a little more out of him last time when he couldn’t sprint for home with the top two finishers. He’s a contender, but I prefer others on top. Prince of Truth (#6) ran better than it appears last time, since he spent most of his trip down inside on a day when the rail might not have been the best place to be. I actually liked him going a bit longer, and wonder if this turnback to sprinting will suit him as well, since he got outrun going shorter two and three back. My top pick is Messi the Magician (#5). He ran well for the level to break his maiden in January before getting ambitiously move up to this allowance condition. He caught a muddy track which he didn’t seem to care for three back, and then got a wide trip on Mar. 9 over another sealed surface. He dropped slightly last time, and seemed to improve finally getting back on a fast, harrowed track. He showed good early speed and battled gamely to the wire. That 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a contender here, and I like that he’s drawn outside of his primary pace rivals.
Fair Value:
#5 MESSI THE MAGICIAN, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Watch Hill (#3) is obviously the horse to beat as he makes another attempt at this $30k maiden claiming level. However, he appeared to be in a similarly dominant situation when he was bet down to 4-5 at this level in January, and he disappointed with an off the board finish. He’s rebounded since then, and comes off one of his better results, finishing second to Friday I’m in Love. Yet even that day he hung a bit through the late stages. I expect him to show up, but he’s just not the most reliable in candidate at a short price. I’m Just (#4) is the other 4-year-old in the field, and he’s coming off a poor performance when last seen. He never really panned out last year, and now he returns as a new gelding with some questions to answer. I wouldn’t want to take a short price on him either. The other alternatives are all 3-year-olds who have run a little slower, but at least they have more upside. I don’t want to give up on Irie Man (#9), who is better than his results might suggest. He was glued to the rail on debut when that perhaps wasn’t the best place to be. He then got a wide trip against a mild rail bias second time out, and went back to getting stuck in traffic on the rail two back. Last time he ducked in at the start and was far behind early before making some late progress. These excuses are piling up, but he should benefit from an outside draw this time and he figures to be a square price. My top pick is Janssen (#8), who returns on short rest. It's easy to make excuses for his first two starts. He faced a much tougher open company field on debut at Gulfstream, and then caught one of the strongest rail biases of the year when racing wide on NY on Jan. 18. He finally got into a more appropriate spot two back and ran a vastly improved race to finish second. He then proved that effort was no fluke last time, just missing in a game effort after setting the pace. Now he’s stretching out to a mile, but he has pedigree for it. Accelerate is a 16% dirt route sire, and the dam is a 3/4-sister to Grade 1 Spinster winner Mushka. His early speed should play well in a race with a murky pace scenario, and I think he could be tough to reel in if he displays the same fight as last time.
Fair Value:
#8 JANSSEN, at 4-1 or greater
#9 IRIE MAN, at 8-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 1/1A - 6 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 5 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This race surely loses some appeal after scratches, especially since I was against Leave No Trace, one of the favorites. Royal Poppy (#1) should be a clear favorite now. Her form has been steady recently, and she looks ready to handle this step up in class after repeating her top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 106 last time. That race has since been flattered as second-place Tough Street won two starts later, third-place Bustin Bay won next out, and 6th-place Stonewall Star won a stakes with an 107 TimeformUS Figure in her next start. The inside post perhaps isn’t ideal for a filly who has benefited from outside stalking trips recently, but she probably isn’t quick enough to make the lead anyway. The likely pacesetter Quick Munny (#5) comes in with a flashy set of TimeformUS Speed Figures, reflecting upgrades due to getting involved in some fast paces recently. Yet she still has to find more at the finish if she’s to hang on at this level, and there are a couple of rivals in here who should keep her honest up front again. Mosienko (#3) would appreciate any pace that develops up front. Her best days may be behind her, but she proved she was still capable of winning at this level when posting an 11-1 upset in December. She subsequently was reported to have bled in the Interborough and now she returns from a layoff. She’s typically a fair price and is far from impossible. My top pick is Pharoah’s Heart (#6). This 7-year-old mare has concentrated on longer races recently, but she has sprinted effectively in the past, even earning her career-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure at 6 1/2 furlongs back in 2021. While she generally hasn’t approached that form since, she did earn her best number in quite a while when posting a 111 TimeformUFigure for her return victory in January. Dropping into a softer optional claimer that day, she just dominated up front, though she’s not one who needs the lead to be successful. She got claimed out of that spot by David Jacobson, who interestingly moves her up in class and turns her back in distance. The class hike has to be seen as a sign of confidence, and Jacobson has had success doing this. He’s 10 for 29 (34%, $4.17 ROI) first off the claim with horses going from claiming to allowance status, and 6 for 14 (43%, $6.71 ROI) making that move at NYRA over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#6 PHAROAH'S HEART, at 9-5 or greater
RACE 5
Every runner in this $40k claimer has flaws. Toned Up (#1) is probably the class of the field as she drops out of a series of tougher optional claiming events. She’s earned speed figures that make her the horse to beat, but she’s tough to take at any kind of short price given her running style. She just lacks any early speed, and this appears to be a paceless affair. In fact, the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a No Speed scenario with Whistler’s Style (#2) on the lead. Yet she’s hardly a frontrunner, and looked like she had lost all of her speed last time when she was even behind Toned Up in the early stages. Halo City (#4) has a similar problem, as another deep closer in this field. I like the claim by Michelle Nevin and James Riccio, and the move up in class does instill some confidence. The best thing she has going for her is Kendrick Carmouche keeping the mount, since he knows her and should be able to get her a bit more involved early, as he did when she won in February. Pretti Xtreme (#3) might be the horse to beat based on her best recent form, but she can be a little tough to trust. She came form far back to get up for third sprinting at this level last time, but she should be able to attain better early position on the stretch-out. Some may consider Cinderella’s Cause (#6), since she at least won her most recent start. Yet that victory came in a $12,500 claimer as part of a 5-win day for Linda Rice, so I’m a little skeptical she can run as well moving up for a new barn. That leaves My First Love (#5). She’s not showing leading on the Pace Projector, but I could see her getting an aggressive ride from the apprentice. He wanted her to be forward last time, but she got squeezed between rivals at the start, putting her out of position early. From there she traveled well in the pocket and briefly had to wait for room on the turn before settling for second behind a runaway winner. She’s capable of better, and we had seen her register stronger speed figures when facing tougher optional claiming company two and three back. She now makes her first start off the claim for Wayne Potts, who moves her up and stretches back out to her best distance. I’m expecting her best effort since returning from a layoff this winter, and that might be good enough to get the job done here at a square price.
Fair Value:
#5 MY FIRST LOVE, at 9-2 or greater
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