Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at Saratoga Race Course in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends | Aqueduct Track Trends

2023

Monday, September 4

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH Variable

The rail was good on the Main Track but overall it played fairly, as did both turf courses.

Sunday, September 3

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH West

While inside speed did well in some of the dirt races, and the rail was good, overall the main track played fairly. The turf courses also appeared to play fairly, with dynamics sometimes helping speed.

Saturday, September 2

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

The rail was good on the Main Track, but not a clear advantage, as over all the dirt and turf courses played fairly. The inside was possibly an edge on the Inner Turf.

Friday, September 1

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 0 to 5 MPH South

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, August 31

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH NW

The Main Track played fairly, with speed doing well in some cases, but closers dominating in others. The turf courses played fairly with dynamics likely playing the biggest role in the outcomes.

Wednesday, August 30

Muddy (sealed )2&3; Good ( 4-6 ); Fast ( 7-10 ) / Off

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NW

After morning rain we were off the turf. The track dried very quickly and there was an extreme speed bias. Making up ground was very hard.

Sunday, August 27

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, August 26

Fast ( 1-4, 6-7 )Muddy ( sealed ) 9; Muddy ( harrowed ) 10, 12-13 / Mellon - Good ( 5 ); Yielding ( 8 ) - Inner ( 11 ) Yielding

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH NW

Before the brief rain, the Main Track appeared to favor the inside, though how extensively is open to debate. Worth following. Likely the track was fair after the rain. The rails were down on the Mellon for the first time this year. The two races likely played fairly. No way to tell anything from the one race on the Inner.

Friday, August 25

Muddy ( sealed ) 1-6; Sloppy ( sealed ) 7-10 / Good ( 3 )

Cloudy-Showers

Wind 5 to 15 MPH South

Except for the 10F 8^th race, speed was a decided advantage, with very little significant movement from behind. Forwardly placed horses dominated the results. There was one 5.5F Turf race, run on the Mellon course, with a heavy favorite winning.

Thursday, August 24

Fast / Firm

Cloudy-Showers Late

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly. It began to rain around the 9^th race through the final race.

Wednesday, August 23

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The rails were at 12 feet on Mellon and 14 on the Inner. The rail might have been a slight advantage on the Inner. The Mellon appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, August 20

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SSW

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. There is a question of whether or not it was a disadvantage to be right on the rail but it's, at best, open to interpretation. The Turf courses, probably on the Firm side of Good, played fairly.

Saturday, August 19

Fast / Good

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH WNW

Speed and the rail appeared to be a decided advantage on the Main Track. We saw horses make OK runs outside, but for the most part, speed and the inside dominated. One turf sprint on the Mellon Turf course was won on the lead but no evidence the course wasn't fair. Both races on the Inner Turf played fairly.

Friday, August 18

Muddy ( sealed ) / Off

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South to West

After more overnight rain, we were Muddy and Off the Turf. The rail was good on the Main Track, and possibly at least a bit of an advantage. Forward horses dominated for the most part, but it was possible to make up significant ground.

Thursday, August 17

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

All courses appeared to play fairly. The Turf courses were listed as Good but were likely closer to Firm.

Wednesday, August 16

Fast / Good

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 MPH SE

The rail was good on the Main Track, though not a clear advantage, as mostly the track played fairly. There was one race on each course. They were both labelled Good but were on the Firm side of Good. Each race collapsed. On the Mellon it was more logical, while on the Inner it was likely due to a quick contested pace. Hard to say there was any bias.

Sunday, August 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH WNW

The Main Track played fairly. Much of the best running seemed to be done outside, but enough runners did well inside to suggest it was fair. The Turf courses seemed to play fairly. They we listed Firm but were on the Good side of Firm.

Saturday, August 12

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

The trends were similar to 8/11. The rail was good on the Main track, if not a distinct advantage, and while some horses made up considerable ground, it appeared to be a benefit to be forward. The rail was an edge on the Inner Turf, but not severely. The Mellon Turf appeared to play fairly.

Friday, August 11

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH West

The rail was good on the Main Track. How much of an advantage is debatable. While it was possible to close, forwardly placed horses dominated for the most part. With the rails down to zero for the first time for the two races on the Inner, the inside was likely an advantage, but perhaps not as distinctly as in past years. There was one race, a four horse sprint on the Mellon Course.

Thursday, August 10

Fast / Off

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

The track appears to play fairly. The riders often drifted off the inside in the stretch, whether or not there is a concern that the rail was bad it's hard to know, and there is at best ambiguous evidence the rail was a problem in the stretch. Might be worth following.

Wednesday, August 9

Fast / Off

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH NW

After more rain over the "weekend" we were off the turf, the Jump race was cancelled, and we lost the 5^th race as well due to a power outage at the track and in the area. The Main Track appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, August 6

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH SE

The Main Track played fairly. There were three turf races, with two on the Inner, and they all appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, August 5

Fast / Yielding

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NW

The Main Track played fairly. There were two races on each turf course. Possible you were a bit better off outside, particularly on the Inner, but it's hard to be sure. Worth following.

Friday, August 4

Muddy ( sealed )/ Yielding

Showers

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SW

After heavy overnight rain, the Main Track was Muddy and the Turf was Yielding for just the Stake. It began to rain before the 7th, the Stake, and after a post race delay, the remainder of the card was cancelled. Other than there being a lot of give in the course, no determinations can really be made, other than the favorite dominating. Most of the best racing on the Main Track was done forward, but enough horses made reasonable runs to suggest the track was at least borderline fair. Tough to be sure.

Thursday, August 3

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SSW

There is a strong argument that the rail was dead on the Main Track. The turf courses likely played fairly.

Wednesday, August 2

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Sunday, July 30

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NW

The rail was good on the Main Track, but not a clear advantage, as the track played fairly. There was one race on each turf course, and while speed or forward horses dominated, it was likely due to race dynamics or ( in one case ) a very logical result. While there was some give to the courses, they were on the Firm side of Good.

Saturday, July 29

Fast ( 2&4 ); Good ( sealed ) -5; Sloppy ( sealed ) 7-12/ Firm ( 1&3 ) Yielding ( Mellon Turf ) 6

Cloudy, rain after the 4th

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SW

Hard to have concrete thoughts given the weather. Likely the surfaces played fairly, and there didn't appear to be any conclusive biases, but hard to know for sure.

Friday, July 28

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH West

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, July 27

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SW

There were four races on the Main Track. It's hard to be sure, but the rail may have been off. Worth following. The turf courses played fairly.

Wednesday, July 26

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

The rails were out 18 feet on both turf courses. All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, July 23

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH WSW

There is a fair argument the rail was dead on the Main Track. Two path and out seemed fine, but right inside may well have been dead ( similar to 7/13 - Opening Day). Worth following. The turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, July 22

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH WNW

All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Friday, July 21

Good ( 1-3 ) Fast ( 4-10 ) / Yielding ( 9^th only )

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

Overnight rains knocked all the races off the turf except the Stake, the Lake George. The track dried quickly and was Fast early in the day. The rail was good on the Main Track, though how much of an edge is debatable, but it's worth following. While speed did well, it could be situational. Forward horses, at the very least, probably had an advantage ( not exactly unusual on dirt ). With one turf race, on the Inner, it's hard to say there were any trends. Nobody made up any significant ground but it's hard to take a lot from that.

Thursday, July 20

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH SSE

The Main Track played fairly, as did the Mellon Turf. The rail dominated the two turf races but arguably it was situational.

Wednesday, July 19

Fast / Good

Clear

803

Wind 5 to 15 MPH WNW

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, July 16

Good ( Harrowed ) 1-3; Sloppy ( sealed ) 4-10 / Off

Cloudy, with heavy rain before the 4th

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

Before the rain, riders stayed off the rail, but there is no evidence the rail was bad. The same was the case after the rain, for races 4-7, then the 8 ^th winner closed inside and the rail appeared to be an advantage after that. Possibly it was always strong, but there is no way to be sure. Either way, speed and closers did fine depending on dynamics and quality.

Saturday, July 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH South

The rail continued to be an advantage on the Main Track though how significant is open to interpretation. Worth following going forward. Speed did OK in some turf races on both courses, but overall they played fairly. While listed Firm, both courses were likely Good at best.

Friday, July 14

Good ( 1-2 ) Fast ( 3-10 ) / Off

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 MPH SSW

We were off the turf after heavy overnight rains. However, the Main Track dried well, and ( especially as the day progressed ) it appeared that the rail was a significant advantage.

Thursday, July 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

There is a fair argument the rail was dead, just the rail, at least in the stretch. Worth following. The rail was out 9 feet on the Inner Turf and 12 on the Mellon. Both courses appeared to play fairly.

Past Years' Track Trends

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