Track Trends
NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at Saratoga Race Course in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.
Belmont Park Track Trends Aqueduct Track Trends
2020
Wednesday, August 12
Fast/Firm
Clear
84
Wind 5 MPH E
The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The rails were down on both turf courses for the first time at the meet. The two races on the Mellon played fairly and there did not appear to be any significant path bias, though rail runners did well in both races. There was one race, outside of the Steeplechase, on the Inner, and that played out fairly.
Sunday, August 9
Fast/Firm
Clear
82
Wind 5 MPH NE
The Main Track seemed relatively fair though forwardly placed runners dominated. Maybe situational. There were times early that the rail seemed like it might ave been off, but given the 6th race, it's nearly impossible to believe that. The Turf courses played fairly, though the Inner continues to play closer to Good than the listed Firm.
Saturday, August 8
Fast/Firm
Clear
81
Wind 2 to 4 MPH NE
The Main Track played fairly but may have been tilted towards forwardly placed runners. Not clear. The Turf courses were listed as Firm, but the Mellon was on the Good side of Firm and the Inner was likely Good at best. There is still some give in the ground. The courses appeared to play fairly.
Friday, August 7
Fast/Firm
Cloudy
73
Wind 2 to 3 MPH SW moving counterclockwise to NW
The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The Turf courses played fairly overall. Speed did well but it was likely situational. With some morning rain, combined with Tuesday's deluge, the courses were listed as Good, with the Inner Turf likely much closer to Yielding.
Thursday, August 6
Fast/Firm
Clear
77
Wind 4 MPH NE
There were three races on the Main Track and all were won easily wire to wire. Two were short prices and one was an 8:1 so it seems fair to at least suggest the track may have been very speed friendly. Worth following going forward. The Turf courses were listed as Firm, but there was clearly give in the ground, and the Inner was likely no better than Good. The courses appeared to play fairly.
Wednesday, August 5
Fast/Firm
Clear
80
Wind 10 to 8 MPH E
We were off the Turf after getting 2.56 inches of rain the previous day. The track was in great condition as the new surface has handled moisture remarkably well. While forwardly placed runners continue to do well, it appears to be mostly situational, and enough horses closed effectively to suggest the track was at least reasonably fair.
Sunday, August 2
Fast/Firm
Cloudy
81
Wind 10 to 12 MPH N/NW
The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The two Inner Turf races were won on the front end but it was likely situational. The Mellon Turf played fairly.
Saturday, August 1
Fast/Firm
Clear
86
Wind 2 MPH NW
All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly
Friday, July 31
Fast/Firm
Clear
84
Wind 4 MPH SW
All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly
Thursday, July 30
Fast/Firm
Clear
83
Wind 6 to 8 MPH NE to SE
Speed may have been an advantage on the Main Track, but it might have been a bit exaggerated by some logical early results. All three Inner turf races were won on the front end. It was likely more situational than any kind of bias. The Mellon/Outer turf races were run fairly.
Wednesday, July 29
Fast/Firm
Clear
88
Wind 6 to 8 MPH NE
There were four races on the Main Track. There is a reasonable argument that speed was good, but also that the rail was an advantage, at least for the first three dirt races. However, the 8th race, the final dirt race, while favorable to speed, though the favorites dominated, did not appear to favor the inside at all. There are several possibilities. The first is that the track was relatively fair and any bias was more situational than real. The second is that the track changed somewhat between the 6th and 8th races. The latter may be the case, but regardless, it’s worth some thought as well as paying attention to how runners from those races perform going forward. The turf courses continue to play fairly.
Sunday, July 26
Fast/Firm
Clear
88
Wind 10 to 8 MPH NE
The were only three dirt races, but there is a strong indication the rail was very much NOT the place to be. Speed was fine but you didn't want to be inside. The turf courses played fairly.
Saturday, July 25
Fast/Firm
Clear
86
Wind 3 to 7 MPH NE
Speed continues to do well on the Main Track, but in many cases it may have been situational, as closers did well on some occasions. Probably closer to fair. The turf courses also continue to play fairly. While many have suggested speed has not held up on the turf, that is not clearly the case, and in general a fairer course won't tilt towards speed, at least in my opinion.
Friday, July 24
Fast/Firm
Clear
83
Wind 3 MPH SW
The Main Track played more fairly than recent days. The rail continues to be good, though not a clear advantage, and speed did fairly well, but not as strongly as previous days. The turf courses played fairly.
Thursday, July 23
Fast/Firm
Cloudy
82
Wind 5 MPH NE to SE
The Main Track continues to favor forwardly placed runners and the rail may have been an advantage. The turf courses both played fairly.
Wednesday, July 22
Fast/Firm
Cloudy
78
Wind 3 to 6 MPH SW
Once again, forwardly placed horses dominated on the dirt, and there is at least a reasonable argument that spending time on the rail was an advantage. The turf courses had firmed up quite a bit and were playing fairly.
Sunday, July 19
Fast/Firm
Clear
93
Wind 9 to 11 MPH NE
The Main Track appeared to favor forwardly placed horses, with little to no significant running being done from the back. It's possible the warm temperatures could be playing a role in this. There did not appear to be any path bias. The turf courses firmed up a bit and played fairly.
Saturday, July 18
Fast/Firm
Clear
78
Wind 6 MPH NE
There is an argument that it was hard to make up ground on the Main Track and that speed was an advantage. The pace did come apart in the 8th race, a nine furlong race with a contested pace, so it may also be that race dynamics are making it appear to be a bias, but it's at least worth considering that speed was an edge at the very least. The rail was also good while not being any significant advantage. The turf courses played fairly. They continue to be listed as Firm but are hardly the firm courses you expect in the Summer, and may be closer to Good.
Friday, July 17
Fast/Good
Cloudy early, Clear late
79
Wind 7 MPH NE
The Main Track dried out after considerable overnight rain and played fairly throughout the day. There were two races taken off the grass ( the 5th and 10th ). There were two races on the Inner Turf and it appeared to be much closer to Yielding than Good. The Mellon Turf ( one race….a sprint ) was probably on the Yielding side of Good, but perhaps a bit firmer than the Inner. Those races seemed to play out fairly.
Thursday, July 16
Fast/Firm
Cloudy
79
Wind 9 MPH N/NW
The Main Track, the new surface being used for racing for the first time, played very fairly. There was some early talk that the inside was not the best place to be, but that proved totally false as the day wore on. There were two sprint races on the Mellon Turf Course, and both appeared to play fairly. It's arguable that saving ground on the Inner Turf Course was an advantage, but that could well have had as much, if not more, to do with race dynamics than any course bias. Worth considering going forward.
Past Years' Track Trends
2019 2018 2017 2016
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