Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at Saratoga Race Course in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends | Aqueduct Track Trends

Monday, September 5

Good ( 2 ); Muddy ( sealed ) 5, 7; Sloppy ( sealed ) 8-12 / Firm ( 1 ); Good ( 3, 4, 6 )

Rain

Wind 5 MPH SW

The track likely changed as it got wetter. Speed did well with the moisture, but it was possible to make up some ground, and most of the running was done well off the inside. How bad the rail was is debatable but likely it was not the most opportune place to be. Two races on each turf course, and they appeared to play fairly. There was some give in the ground but for the most part the courses were in good shape.

Sunday, September 4

Fast / Firm

Clear early, cloudy late

Wind 2 to 9 MPH SW

The Main Track played fairly though most riders stayed off the inside. No evidence the rail was bad. The turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, September 3

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 MPH North

All surfaces, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Friday, September 2

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 MPH North

All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, September 1

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 9 to 6 MPH SE

Speed was good on the Main Track but not a clear advantage. Most running was done at least a bit off the rail but it's not clear the rail was off. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Wednesday, August 31

Fast / Good

Cloudy

Wind 12 to 7 MPH ESE to ENE

The Main Track played fairly. Once again, most riders stayed well off the rail, but enough horse ran well enough inside during the stretch to suggest the rail was probably OK. After some overnight rain, the turf courses were listed as good. The rails were moved out 27 feet on the Inner. Both courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, August 28

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

6 MPH North

Three of the four dirt races were won wire to wire by horses that raced inside before drifting in the stretch. They all may have been logical horses as the fourth dirt race played out fairly. The turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, August 27

Fast / Good

Clear

6 MPH SE

Main Track played fairly, with most of the running done off the rail. The turf courses played fairly. They were both labeled good after Friday's rain.

Friday, August 26

Sloppy ( sealed ) 1-4; Muddy ( sealed ) 5-11 / Off

Cloudy ( Showers early )

Wind 4 MPH NE

After heavy rains shortly before the start of the card, all races were taken off the turf, and the track was wet and sealed. The Main Track played fairly and the rail was good, though not an advantage.

Thursday, August 25

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 MPH NE to SE

The Main Track played fairly but once again it was better to be off the inside. Both turf courses played fairly, despite the fact that the rails were down to zero on the Mellon course. The rails were up nine feet on the Inner.

Wednesday, August 24

Fast / Off

Clear

Wind 4 to 6 MPH ESE

We were off the turf after almost 1/5 inches of rain the previous evening. The main track played fairly though riders stayed off the rail for the most part and it's reasonable to think the inside was not the best place to be.

Sunday, August 21

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 9 to 6 MPH NNE

Speed dominated all four main track races. The Mellon course played fairly while the inside continues to be an advantage on the Inner Turf. This will likely change on 8/24 when the rails move out 9 feet.

Saturday, August 20

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 to 6 MPH NW

Speed did well on the Main Track, though most of the running was done at least a bit off the rail. How much of an advantage speed was is debatable. The Mellon Turf continues to play fairly while the inside continues to be an advantage on the Inner, though perhaps not as strong as earlier in the week.

Friday, August 19

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 MPH NE

The Main Track appears to be playing fairly. Most of the best running was done off the rail but one horse, at a big price, came up the rail for second. Ambiguous at best. The Mellon Turf played fairly. The rail continues to be an advantage on the Inner Turf, but two of the three races were won by horses with trips off the inside. Could be a little more fair.

Thursday, August 18

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 7 to 9 MPH SE

While the Main Track played fairly overall, there were races that made the rail, particularly in the stretch, appear very strong. The two turf sprints on the Mellon were won wire to wire, but this was due to race dynamics and the talents of the speed horses, as the route on the Mellon played out fairly. Saving ground for at least a significant portion of the race remains essentially a necessity to be successful on the Inner Turf.

Wednesday, August 17

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 MPH SSW to SSE

Horses stayed away from the rail, particularly in the stretch, but whether this was a precaution, or the rail was actually off, is anyone's guess. The Mellon Turf played fairly while saving ground, for at least a significant part of the race, remains almost a prerequisite for success on the Inner.

Sunday, August 14

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 2 MPH West

The Main Track played fairly, as did the Mellon Turf, while the rail continues to be an advantage on the Inner Turf.

Saturday, August 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 MPH SW

Most of the running on the dirt was done a bit off the rail, though there is no evidence the rail was bad with one longshot winner coming through on the inside. Speed was possibly an advantage. The Mellon Turf played fairly while spending at least a significant portion of time on the rail continued to be an advantage on the Inner Turf.

Friday, August 12

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 to 9 MPH SE

The Main Track was fair. Horses ran well enough inside to suggest the rail was OK. The Mellon Turf was fair while saving ground, for at least part of the race, was a big advantage on the Inner.

Thursday, August 11

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 to 8 MPH NE to SE

Overall the Main Track played fairly though forward horses probably had a bit of advantage ( as they often do on dirt ). The Mellon Turf played fairly while the Inner Turf continued to favor horses that spent at least some of the race inside.

Wednesday, August 10

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 2 MPH ESE

There is a reasonable argument speed was an advantage on the Main Track today. The Mellon Turf played fairly. Today was the first day the rails were down on the Inner Turf and the inside was a decided edge.

Sunday, August 7

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 MPH NE

There is a reasonable question of whether or not the rail was dead on the Main Track, Just off it ( even the two path ) seemed fine but right inside was questionable. The turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, August 6

Fast, Good ( sealed ) 8-9, Good ( Harrowed ) 10 / Firm

Clear / Midday Showers

Wind 6 MPH NE

All surfaces, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly. Whether or not the track changed after it was sealed is hard to know. Most of the running in those two races was done well out into the track.

Friday, August 5

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5to 3 MPH NE to South

The Main Track played fairly as did the turf courses. Two of the three races on the Inner were won wire to wire but that appeared to be situational.

Thursday, August 4

Fast / Firm

Clear / Midday Showers

Wind 7 to 9 MPH NE

A mild storm, that dropped less than 1/20th of an inch of rain, delayed the races for about 15 minutes before the 7th race. The Main Track was sealed during the rain, but was opened for the 8th race, the only dirt race among the final four races. While much of the best running was done at least a little off the inside on the dirt, there is no evidence the rail was bad. Perhaps worth following going forward. The turf courses played fairly both before and after the rain.

Wednesday, August 3

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 MPH NE

A lot of the best running on the Main Track was done off the rail, but horses seemed to run OK inside, making the track appear fair but it may be worth paying attention to horses that raced inside going forward. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, July 31

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 7 MPH NE

There has been some discussion that the rail was dead. The evidence is lukewarm but it's worth following. It did not hurt to be outside regardless. Both turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, July 30

Fast / Firm

Partly Cloudy

Wind 9 to 6 MPH SE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Friday, July 29

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 8 to 10 MPH East

While speed did well on the Main Track, overall the track played fairly, as did both turf courses.

Thursday, July 28

Fast ( 1 ) Good ( sealed ) 3, Good ( harrowed ) 4-5, Sloppy ( sealed ) 8-10 / Firm ( 2 ) Good ( 6-7 )

Cloudy with intermittent showers, heavy rain prior to the 8th race

Wind 6 to 9 MPH NE

Despite the changing track conditions, the Main Track appeared to play fairly regardless of how much moisture was in the racetrack. The three Turf races also appeared to play fairly.

Wednesday, July 27

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 MPH NE

The Main Track played fairly. The rails were up 18 feet on both turf courses. While they both likely played fairly, both races on the Inner were dominated by closers. Possibly situational but worth following.

Sunday, July 24

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 to 10 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Saturday, July 23

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly. Very slight chance you wanted to be off the very inside on the dirt but far from clear that's true. Worth following.

Friday, July 22

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, July 21

Sloppy ( sealed ) 1-3, Muddy ( sealed ) 4, Muddy ( Harrowed ) 5-6, Good 8-9 / Firm ( 7 ) Mellon - Good ( 9 ) Inner

Clear

Wind 8 to 10 MPH NE

A 20 minute rain storm before the 1 ^st race turned the track sloppy. It dried through the afternoon as the weather quickly cleared up. Only one race remained on each turf course. There was more give to the Inner Turf. There was an argument the rail was dead early but this may have mitigated as the day wore on. The race on the Mellon, a sprint, was won wire to wire, with a logical result on the Inner. Impossible to determine any bias.

Wednesday, July 20

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 6 MPH NE

The Main Track continues to be kind to forwardly placed horses though we saw some horses make effective runs from well back. The Mellon Turf played fairly. There were two races on the Inner Turf ( the rails continue to be out 9 feet like the first week of the meet ). One was won wire to wire with a slow pace and the other one the pace completely collapsed. It's fair to say there is some bias towards closers. Keep paying attention to the Inner as the rails are expected to be out 9 feet all week.

Sunday, July 17

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 to 5 MPH NNE

The Main Track continues to play fairly. Forwardly placed horses have done well, and the rail seems good ( not an advantage ). Worth watching how effective closers are, as we saw them hampered last year, but I am not sure how much that has been the case so far. Worth following. The Mellon Turf seems fair with closers continuing to dominate on the Inner Turf.

Saturday, July 16

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 4 to 6 MPH NNE

The Main Track appeared to play fairly, as did the Mello Turf. Closers continue to do well on the Inner, though there is no clear indication it was a bias. Continues to be worth following.

Friday, July 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 MPH NW to SE

Forwardly placed horses did well on the dirt but there is no clear indication it was a bias of any kind, but possible. Closers did well on the Inner turf but it also may have been situational. Worth following going forward.

Thursday, July 14

Fast / Firm

Clear ( brief shower before the 1 ^st race )

Wind 5 MPH SE

All courses appeared to play fairly with race dynamics playing the biggest role ( outside of the best horses winning ). The brief rain before the opener seemed to have no effect on the races.

Past Years' Track Trends

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