Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at Saratoga Race Course in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends Aqueduct Track Trends

Monday, September 6

Fast ( 1 ) Sloppy ( sealed ) 2&4; Muddy ( sealed ) 7; Good ( Harrowed ) 9&10 / Yielding

Clear, save brief storm prior to the 2nd race

Wind 7 to 12 MPH NE to SE to NE

It poured for about 15 minutes after the 1st race. Hard to evaluate the track, as it was constantly changing, but the rail did seem good, if not an advantage, as the day went on. The turf was listed as Yielding after the rain, but it was probably closer to Good, and both courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, September 5

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 9 to 6 MPH SSE

All courses, dirt and turf, played fairly. It is worth noting that, as has been the case throughout the meet, the two turn dirt races are dominated by speed.

Saturday, September 4

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 to 5 MPH SE to NE

Being forwardly placed, as it usually is, on the Main Track was beneficial. Overall, the track was fair. The Turf courses played fairly.

Friday, September 3

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 MPH SE

All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly. The rail on the Main Track was good, though not an advantage.

Thursday, September 2

Fast / Off

Clear

Wind 9 to 7 MPH SSW to SSE

There is a reasonable argument it was at least a bit of an outside flow track and the rail was not the best place to be. We were off the turf after over one half inch of rain the previous night.

Wednesday, September 1

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 3 MPH SW

There was only light rain from around the middle of the card on that did not affect the surfaces, turf and dirt. All surface/courses played fairly.

Sunday, August 29

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 7 MPH North

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Saturday, August 28

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 4 to 6 MPH NW

The Main Track may well have been tilted towards speed, as except for the Personal Ensign, no horses made up any appreciable ground, but given the overall logical results, it may not be as definitive as it appears. Regardless, it is worth following going forward. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, August 27

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 6 to 8 MPH SW

The rail was good on the Main Track but not a clear advantage. Overall, all surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, August 26

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 6 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Wednesday, August 25

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 MPH NE

The Main Track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles. The turf courses were listed as Firm but there still appeared to be a bit of give in them. Both courses appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, August 22

Fast, Good ( sealed ) 8-9, Muddy ( sealed ) 10 / Yielding

Cloudy

Wind 8 to 10 MPH SW

The track was likely fair, with mostly logical results, and even though speed held when some showers hit, and the track was both sealed and downgraded, closers did well in the finale ( contested pace ). The inside seemed good. One race on each course, soft even though listed yielding, and there was no discernable bias.

Saturday, August 21

Fast, Good ( sealed ) 8th, Good ( harrowed ) 10-11 / Yielding

Clear

Wind 4 MPH NW

There is an argument you didn't want to be right on the rail. The 6th winner ran very well towards the inside but was probably in the two path for most, if not all, of the race. Inconclusive but worth following. It rained prior to the 8th. How much this changed the track, if at all, is open to conjecture. The turf courses were Soft. With one race on each it's very hard to determine any trends but the inside may well not have been the best place on the Mellon.

Friday, August 20

Good ( 1-2 ) Fast / Yielding

Partly Cloudy

Wind 3 MPH SSE

Speed did well, though given the mostly logical results it was likely at least somewhat situational, though the inside was good if not an advantage. One race was run on the Mellon, which was listed as Yielding but closer to Soft, and outside runners could have had an edge. The race also featured a very rapid relative pace which also led to the pace collapsing.

Thursday, August 19

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Off

Rainy

Wind 6 MPH SW

The rail was good, and very possibly an advantage, as speed did well too. Not clear speed wasn't more rail related and/or situational.

Wednesday, August 18

Good / Yielding

Cloudy

Wind 4 MPH NE

After rainfall during much of the prior 24 hours, only the 1st ( a Steeplechase race ) and 9th, the Stake, remained on the grass. The Main Track was harrowed all day and in extremely good shape. Speed did very well on the Main Track, though we saw extremely logical results throughout the day, and the inside was good. How much of an advantage this was remains to be seen. Given the Beyer figures didn't seem to be exaggerated for the winners specifically, it's hard to say there was a strong bias. With just one flat race on the turf, it's hard to determine any trends.

Sunday, August 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 MPH SW

There is an argument there was an outside flow on the Main Track. Not clear the rail was bad but the best running was done outside, though there were only four dirt races. The Mellon Turf course played fairly. The rail continues to be a significant advantage on the Inner and it was almost a necessity to spend at least a portion of the race inside to be successful.

Saturday, August 14

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 7 MPH SE

The rail was good on the Main Track, though not a clear advantage, as the track seemed relatively fair. The Mellon Turf course played fairly. The rail continues to be a significant advantage on the Inner and it was almost a necessity to spend at least a portion of the race inside to be successful.

Friday, August 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 to 6 MPH NE

There was a fairly brief thunderstorm that delayed the 8th race. It had little to no effect on the Main Track ( races 9 & 10 ) but did slow up the Mellon Turf for the 8th race, though it was still Firm. The Main Track, as well as the Mellon Turf, played fairly. Like the previous two days, with the rails down, the Inner Turf still strongly favored runners that were able to save ground on the rail.

Thursday, August 12

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 MPH NE

There is a fair argument that speed was an advantage on the Main Track, which included a 38:1 shot wiring a field, but the 5th race would argue that, as the winner ( a first time starter ) closed wide in a fairly impressive final time. At the very least, it is worth following going forward. There were five dirt races. The Mellon/Outer Turf played fairly. With the rails down on the Inner Turf, saving ground for at least a significant portion of the race was an extreme advantage, and being three wide ( or wider ) was a likely significant disadvantage.

Wednesday, August 11

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 to 6 MPH NE

Speed appeared to be an advantage on the Main Track. The Mellon Turf played fairly. The rails were down for the first time this meet on the Inner which gave an advantage to the inside paths.

Sunday, August 8

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 MPH NW

Overall, all courses, turf and dirt, played fairly

Saturday, August 7

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 7 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Friday, August 6

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 to 6 MPH NE

There is an argument that the rail was at least somewhat of an advantage on the Main Track but it could have been situational. Likely worth following going forward. The Turf courses appeared to play fairly overall.

Thursday, August 5

Fast / Firm

Partly Cloudy

Wind 5 to 3 MPH SW

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Wednesday, August 4

Fast / Firm

Partly Cloudy

Wind 2 MPH WSW

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Sunday, August 1

Fast ( 3, 5, 7 ) Fast ( sealed ) 8th, Sloppy ( sealed ) 9 & 10 / Firm ( 1, 2, 4 ) Good ( 6 )

Cloudy, with significant rain prior to the 9th race

Wind 8 to 5 MPH North moving to East middle of the card

The Main Track played fairly prior to it being sealed. Inside, but logical, horses dominated the 8th. After the rain, speed dominated, though both winners were extremely logical, but closing seemed to be hindered. The Turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, July 31

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 6 MPH NE

While the rail might have been an advantage, it's far from clear, and given we have not seen this at any point in the prior 12 days of racing, it's fair to be skeptical and perhaps keep an eye on it going forward. The Turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, July 30

Sloppy ( sealed ) 1-4, Muddy ( sealed ) 5-7, Good ( Harrowed ) 8-10 / Off

Clear

Wind 12 MPH SE

Speed totally dominated while the track was sealed, but it seemed to be more fair when it was harrowed

Thursday, July 29

Fast ( 1 ) Sloppy ( Sealed ) 3-10 / Good ( 2 )

Rainy

Wind 8 MPH NW to NE

It started to rain right before the 1st race. Hard to evaluate that race though most of the racing was done off the inside and the race played out fairly. The 2nd race, the only turf race, was run in the rain and it was dominated by forwardly placed horses. All the races were moved to a now Sloppy and Sealed Main Track, which seemed to be fair, with speed somewhat dominating half the races and closers the others. Hard to say there was any bias. The rail also seemed fair.

Wednesday, July 28

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 MPH SW

The Main Track played fairly. The rail was good but no apparent advantage. Speed did well on the turf courses, but it was likely circumstantial, with the courses likely playing fairly overall.

Sunday, July 25

Muddy ( sealed ) 1 - 4, Muddy ( Harrowed ) 5-6, Good 7, Fast 8-10 / Off

Partly Cloudy

Wind 8 to 6 MPH NE

The track appeared to play fairly throughout the day, even as the track went from sealed to harrowed, and dried quickly as the afternoon progressed.

Saturday, July 24

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 to 5 MPH North

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Friday, July 23

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 MPH SE

The Main Track played fairly. Closers dominated the races on the turf courses, but with logical results for the most part, they both likely played fairly. Arguably forwardly placed horses were not compromised.

Thursday, July 22

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 6 MPH SE

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The Turf courses were listed as Good, though the times suggested it was on the Yielding side of Good, but the races appeared to play fairly, though closers dominated the two races on the Inner Turf.

Wednesday, July 21

Fast ( 2 thru 5 ) Good ( 6 ) Muddy ( sealed - 9&10 ) / Yielding ( 7-8 )

Partly Cloudy / Intermittent Rain Showers

Wind 6 to 7 MPH SE to SSW

Inside speed appeared to be an advantage on the Main Track before rain changed the track for the final two dirt races. There was one race on each turf course, which was Yielding to Soft, and it's not realistic to make any determinations about the courses.

Sunday, July 18

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Off

Showery

Wind 7 MPH SW

The track played very fairly despite the conditions. There were times inside speed seemed dominant but also times outside closers appeared to dominate. Fair track.

Saturday, July 17

Fast 2 &11 – Good ( sealed ) 5, Good ( Harrowed ) 8&9 / Firm 1,3&4, Good 6,7&10

Cloudy with a showers before the 5^th for maybe 45 minutes

Wind 7 MPH SW

Tough to make a lot of conclusions about the Main Track, as there was only one race before the rain and one race over a sealed track, but it seemed to play fairly, though speed did will, and may have sped up a bit after the rain. The rain put some give into the Turf courses but both appeared to play fairly all day.

Friday, July 16

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 to 7 MPH SE to East

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. Most running was done at least one path off the rail but there was no evidence the rail was bad. The Turf courses were listed as Firm but they played, at best, as Good. The appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, July 15

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 4 to 7 MPH NE

The Main Track played fairly, the rail was good though not a clear advantage, and the times were very much on the slow side. The Turf courses were listed as Good but were on the Yielding side of Good, and there is an argument the inside path, particularly on the Inner Turf, were an advantage.

Past Years' Track Trends

2020 2019 2018 2017 2016