Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at Saratoga Race Course in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends Aqueduct Track Trends

2020

Monday, September 7

Fast / Firm

Clear
77
Wind 14 to 10 MPH N

The Main Track played fairly. The Mellon Turf played fairly as well. The Inner Turf seemed fairer too, though being inside didn't hurt.

Sunday, September 6

Fast / Firm

Clear
71
Wind 3 MPH E/NE

The Main Track played fairly. The Mellon Turf was fair as well, but this inside, and often speed, continues to be an advantage on the Inner Turf.

Saturday, September 5

Fast / Firm

Clear
72
Wind 8 MPH NE

Speed did well on the Main Track but it's far from clear it was a real advantage. The same goes for the rail. It's arguable that the Turf was closer to Good than Firm. The Mellon was relatively fair, but there is an argument that inside speed was an advantage on the Inner, though as is often the case, race dynamics may well have played a role in this. Worth following.

Friday, September 4

Fast / Good

Clear
73
Wind 8 MPH E/NE

The rail was very good on the Main Track. This may have made speed look good but it appears the rail was the biggest factor. Both turf courses were listed as good but were probably on the yielding side of good. Despite the two Stake races, won wire to wire, the turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, September 3

Fast / Off

Cloudy
75
Wind 3 MPH NE

All the races were contested on the Main Track, including six taken off the turf. While it was possible to close, there was a decided edge to runners racing on the rail, which often resulted in speed doing well. That was likely more situational and was aided by a strong inside.

Wednesday, September 2

Sloppy (sealed)

Rainy then Cloudy
70
Wind 9 MPH N

Speed did well during the day but it was arguably at least somewhat situational as some closers fared well at times. It is arguable, especially as the day wore on, that being inside was an advantage. Worth following to the extent that you believe sloppy track form is predictive going forward.

Sunday, August 30

Fast / Good

Clear
71
Wind 9 to 7 MPH SE

Speed did well on the Main Track but we saw enough closers race well that it's fair to say it was at least relatively fair. Despite Saturday's deluge, we did run two turf races, one on each course. While labelled "Good" the courses were closer to Yielding, especially the Inner. Hard to draw any strong conclusions and it's reasonable to suggest some runners couldn't handle the going.

Saturday, August 29

Muddy ( sealed ) 1&2 Sloppy ( sealed ) thereafter / Soft

Rain, Heavy at times
75
Wind 6 to 8 MPH N/NE

Wild weather at times created some unusual circumstances. Forward placed horses dominated the first four races, and the inside was fine though no clear advantage, but it may well have been situational. The 6th race, and fifth dirt race, fell apart but the rapid pace may have been the reason for that. The Forego was run in a driving rainstorm, and while speed held up very well, the winner made an extreme run, on the far outside in the stretch, from well back. Speed remained good, but a fast pace helped midpack runners close in the finale. All in all, I would say speed was good, the track had no definitive path bias, and it was possible to close from well back. Odd day. The two turf races, one on each course, live in isolation in that we almost never run on such rain soaked courses. Speed was a clear advantage and it's probably prudent not to make too much of the results one way or another.

Friday, August 28

Fast / Good

Cloudy
76
Wind 4 MPH NE

The rail/inside was very good on the Main Track and a clear advantage. This helped speed but also any horse that spent at least a reasonable amount of time inside. The Main Track also produced quick times. The Turf Courses had some give, but were Good at "worst" and they both seemed to play fairly, though being inside, or close to the inside, may have helped on the Inner. Given there was one race, this is a reasonable guess.

Thursday, August 27

Sloppy (sealed) / Off

Rain early, cloudy later
60
Wind 3 to 5 MPH SW

It started raining heavily just after 11:30 leading to all turf races being moved to the Main Track. The rail was good, though not clearly an advantage, and overall the track played fairly. Speed did OK but it’s not clear it was anything more than logical horses being forwardly placed.

Wednesday, August 26

Fast/Firm

Clear
70
Wind 7 to 9 MPH SE

There were only three dirt races. It appears despite not much to go on, that the Main Track played fairly. The rails were back out on the turf courses after two weeks of them being down. They were out nine feet on the Inner and 27 on the Mellon. Speed did well on both courses but it may have been more situational ( based on talent and race dynamics ) than any kind of bias, but it’s at least worth following going forward.

Sunday, August 23

Fast/Firm

Clear
85
Wind 4 to 6 MPH NE

The Main Track played fairly, with the rail good, though not necessarily an advantage. The Mellon Turf appeared to play fairly. There continues to be an argument that saving ground on the Inner Turf is an advantage but it's not absolute based on the two races.

Saturday, August 22

Muddy ( 1 ); Good ( 2-4 ); Fast ( 5-8 ) / Good

Cloudy early - Clear late
81
Wind 4 MPH SE

After early morning showers, we were off the turf for all but the last two races. The Main Track was always harrowed and dried quickly. Speed did well, but the rail was really the advantage, and it was helpful throughout the card. The Fourstardave, run on the Inner Turf, showed a bias to horses that were able to save ground for most of the race, and there is a reasonable question if closing outside of the three path in the stretch was possible. Worth following. The last race on the Mellon was run fairly. While both courses were labelled “good” they were likely Firm.

Friday, August 21

Fast/Firm
Clear
84
Wind 9 to 5 MPH NE to SE

The Main Track played fairly and the rail was good, and possibly a slight advantage, at least it seemed possible in the first two dirt races. There might be an impression that speed was an advantage on the turf courses, particularly the Mellon course, but in all likelihood it was circumstantial.

Thursday, August 20

Good/Good
Clear
72
Wind 4 to 7 MPH NE

There's a good argument that the rail was bad on the Main Track. At the very least it's worth following going forward. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Wednesday, August 19

Good/Good
Mostly Clear
72
Wind 4 MPH SE

After a sudden downpour at about 12:20 for about ten minutes, the Main Track was Good and the Turf was Good to Firm, with the first flat Turf race on the Mellon at about 2pm run on a course that was closer to Good than the rest of the day's turf races. With only three dirt races, it's hard to notice any trends, though speed did well in two of the races, but the results were logical, and one was a four horse field. As for the turf, there is an argument the rail was an advantage in both Inner Turf races, but that could have been situational. Otherwise the surfaces were probably fair.

Sunday, August 16

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
75
Wind 6 MPH NW

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. Much of the running was done a bit off the inside but it’s tough to say that the inside was off at all. The Turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, August 15

Fast/Firm
Clear
82
Wind 4 to 7 MPH SW to NW

All courses, dirt and turf, played fairly.

Friday, August 14

Fast/Firm
Clear
84
Wind 7 MPH SW

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. There is an argument that the rail was a slight advantage though it's far from clear. Both turf courses played fairly with dynamics ( as usual ) sometimes dictating results, like the 10th race.

Thursday, August 13

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
84
Wind 3 MPH SW

The Main Track likely played fairly but it’s possible being forwardly placed was an advantage. The 9th race would somewhat argue against that, and given it was possibly the most competitive dirt race all day ( at least as it turned out ), overall the track was probably fair. Hard to say inside paths were any advantage on the Turf courses, which seemed to play fairly, but maybe the rail was a slight advantage on the Mellon. Worth following perhaps.

Wednesday, August 12

Fast/Firm
Clear
84
Wind 5 MPH E

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The rails were down on both turf courses for the first time at the meet. The two races on the Mellon played fairly and there did not appear to be any significant path bias, though rail runners did well in both races. There was one race, outside of the Steeplechase, on the Inner, and that played out fairly.

Sunday, August 9

Fast/Firm
Clear
82
Wind 5 MPH NE

The Main Track seemed relatively fair though forwardly placed runners dominated. Maybe situational. There were times early that the rail seemed like it might ave been off, but given the 6th race, it's nearly impossible to believe that. The Turf courses played fairly, though the Inner continues to play closer to Good than the listed Firm.

Saturday, August 8

Fast/Firm
Clear
81
Wind 2 to 4 MPH NE

The Main Track played fairly but may have been tilted towards forwardly placed runners. Not clear. The Turf courses were listed as Firm, but the Mellon was on the Good side of Firm and the Inner was likely Good at best. There is still some give in the ground. The courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, August 7

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
73
Wind 2 to 3 MPH SW moving counterclockwise to NW

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The Turf courses played fairly overall. Speed did well but it was likely situational. With some morning rain, combined with Tuesday's deluge, the courses were listed as Good, with the Inner Turf likely much closer to Yielding.

Thursday, August 6

Fast/Firm
Clear
77
Wind 4 MPH NE

There were three races on the Main Track and all were won easily wire to wire. Two were short prices and one was an 8:1 so it seems fair to at least suggest the track may have been very speed friendly. Worth following going forward. The Turf courses were listed as Firm, but there was clearly give in the ground, and the Inner was likely no better than Good. The courses appeared to play fairly.

Wednesday, August 5

Fast/Firm
Clear
80
Wind 10 to 8 MPH E

We were off the Turf after getting 2.56 inches of rain the previous day. The track was in great condition as the new surface has handled moisture remarkably well. While forwardly placed runners continue to do well, it appears to be mostly situational, and enough horses closed effectively to suggest the track was at least reasonably fair.

Sunday, August 2

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
81
Wind 10 to 12 MPH N/NW

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The two Inner Turf races were won on the front end but it was likely situational. The Mellon Turf played fairly.

Saturday, August 1

Fast/Firm
Clear
86
Wind 2 MPH NW

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Friday, July 31

Fast/Firm
Clear
84
Wind 4 MPH SW

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Thursday, July 30

Fast/Firm
Clear
83
Wind 6 to 8 MPH NE to SE

Speed may have been an advantage on the Main Track, but it might have been a bit exaggerated by some logical early results. All three Inner turf races were won on the front end. It was likely more situational than any kind of bias. The Mellon/Outer turf races were run fairly.

Wednesday, July 29

Fast/Firm
Clear
88
Wind 6 to 8 MPH NE

There were four races on the Main Track. There is a reasonable argument that speed was good, but also that the rail was an advantage, at least for the first three dirt races. However, the 8th race, the final dirt race, while favorable to speed, though the favorites dominated, did not appear to favor the inside at all. There are several possibilities. The first is that the track was relatively fair and any bias was more situational than real. The second is that the track changed somewhat between the 6th and 8th races. The latter may be the case, but regardless, it’s worth some thought as well as paying attention to how runners from those races perform going forward. The turf courses continue to play fairly.

Sunday, July 26

Fast/Firm
Clear
88
Wind 10 to 8 MPH NE

The were only three dirt races, but there is a strong indication the rail was very much NOT the place to be. Speed was fine but you didn't want to be inside. The turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, July 25

Fast/Firm
Clear
86
Wind 3 to 7 MPH NE

Speed continues to do well on the Main Track, but in many cases it may have been situational, as closers did well on some occasions. Probably closer to fair. The turf courses also continue to play fairly. While many have suggested speed has not held up on the turf, that is not clearly the case, and in general a fairer course won't tilt towards speed, at least in my opinion.

Friday, July 24

Fast/Firm
Clear
83
Wind 3 MPH SW

The Main Track played more fairly than recent days. The rail continues to be good, though not a clear advantage, and speed did fairly well, but not as strongly as previous days. The turf courses played fairly.

Thursday, July 23

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
82
Wind 5 MPH NE to SE

The Main Track continues to favor forwardly placed runners and the rail may have been an advantage. The turf courses both played fairly.

Wednesday, July 22

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
78
Wind 3 to 6 MPH SW

Once again, forwardly placed horses dominated on the dirt, and there is at least a reasonable argument that spending time on the rail was an advantage. The turf courses had firmed up quite a bit and were playing fairly.

Sunday, July 19

Fast/Firm
Clear
93
Wind 9 to 11 MPH NE

The Main Track appeared to favor forwardly placed horses, with little to no significant running being done from the back. It's possible the warm temperatures could be playing a role in this. There did not appear to be any path bias. The turf courses firmed up a bit and played fairly.

Saturday, July 18

Fast/Firm
Clear
78
Wind 6 MPH NE

There is an argument that it was hard to make up ground on the Main Track and that speed was an advantage. The pace did come apart in the 8th race, a nine furlong race with a contested pace, so it may also be that race dynamics are making it appear to be a bias, but it's at least worth considering that speed was an edge at the very least. The rail was also good while not being any significant advantage. The turf courses played fairly. They continue to be listed as Firm but are hardly the firm courses you expect in the Summer, and may be closer to Good.

Friday, July 17

Fast/Good
Cloudy early, Clear late
79
Wind 7 MPH NE

The Main Track dried out after considerable overnight rain and played fairly throughout the day. There were two races taken off the grass ( the 5th and 10th ). There were two races on the Inner Turf and it appeared to be much closer to Yielding than Good. The Mellon Turf ( one race….a sprint ) was probably on the Yielding side of Good, but perhaps a bit firmer than the Inner. Those races seemed to play out fairly.

Thursday, July 16

Fast/Firm
Cloudy
79
Wind 9 MPH N/NW

The Main Track, the new surface being used for racing for the first time, played very fairly. There was some early talk that the inside was not the best place to be, but that proved totally false as the day wore on. There were two sprint races on the Mellon Turf Course, and both appeared to play fairly. It's arguable that saving ground on the Inner Turf Course was an advantage, but that could well have had as much, if not more, to do with race dynamics than any course bias. Worth considering going forward.

Past Years' Track Trends

2019 2018 2017 2016