Picks & Plays for Friday, September 4

by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   8 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   12 - 9 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 8 - 9
Race 9:   12 - 8 - 13 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 11:   4 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 12:   4 - 2 - 1 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: SAMBORELLA (#4)
Rossa Veloce and Summer Brew finished first and second in a maiden race earlier last month and figure to again have a strong say in the outcome as both move up into this Seeking the Ante Stakes. While that Aug. 5 race earned a fast speed figure (76 Beyer and 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure), I’m a little skeptical of the number. Third-place finisher No Mo’ Spending returned to win last week, but did so with a significantly slower speed figure. The track appeared to be changing and carrying some horses on Aug. 5, so I’m just a little skeptical that either of these fillies ran quite as well as it seems. I want an alternative and there are two viable options. The more obvious one is Make Mischief, who drops out of a couple of graded stakes to face New York-breds for the first time since her debut. While she’s a legitimate contender in this race, I’m not certain that she’s actually getting much class relief, since those open company stakes were pretty weak races for the level. I want to instead go for second-time starting maiden Samborella. This filly was touted prior to her debut, but ran like a horse who badly needed that first-out experience. She was off slowly and then raced greenly along the inside, as Jose Ortiz rode her gingerly until midstretch. She figures to benefit from that race and it appears that she’s been training well out of it. I like her stretching out in distance and I’m hoping she can outfinish these fillies down the lane.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 1,2,5,6
 

RACE 6: SARATOGA PAL (#12)
Advanced Strategy and Papa Luke figure to go vie for favoritism here, but I’m not particularly interested in either one at relatively short prices. Advanced Strategy was switched over to turf in his two starts so far at this meet. While he ran fairly well in both of them, it’s not clear that he’s actually better on that surface. While he may appreciate the switch back to dirt, he’s going to get bet for the wrong reasons. Papa Luke has at least run competitive recent dirt races, but he’s had his chances to win, losing by narrow margins in each of his last two starts after taking the lead in midstretch. I want to look elsewhere at some better prices. Whichwaytomalibu makes sense as he returns from a layoff. He ran well off a similar break as a 2-year-old when finishing second behind the talented Bourbon Bay in December. He tried a mile in his last two starts and that just appeared to be a little too far for him. He seems to be working well and returns at the right distance. Yet my top pick is Saratoga Pal. This horse actually finished ahead of Papa Luke last time, but he could be a bigger price once against this afternoon. Saratoga Pal was making his second start off the layoff that day following a prep race on the turf. That August 15 affair was dominated by horses towards the front end, and Saratoga Pal found himself at the back of the pack early after an awkward start. All things considered, I thought he did well to nearly up in the late stages while really kicking into high gear for the final furlong. He ran some competitive speed figures over the winter, so it’s not as if that last effort came out of nowhere. I expect him to do better this time with a clean start.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,8,9,11
 

RACE 7: EAGLE ORB (#1)
A couple of contenders in this field are dropping out of the Saratoga Special, where they were overmatched against some of the best open company two-year-olds in the country. Both of those horses, Market Alert and Hold the Salsa, should appreciate this drop in class, as each showed promise in his debut. Market Alert is slightly more appealing, as he beat a couple of today’s rivals when breaking his maiden on debut at Belmont. He unleashed a strong stretch rally to win that day, drawing off impressively in the late stages after closing into a slow pace. Any natural progression off his debut should make him a major player. Hold the Salsa could be a better price, but he got plenty of pace to close into when he put in that wild stretch rally to win his debut. The same horse who set the pace that day, Lookin for Trouble, is back in this field, but this race isn’t exactly projected to feature a blazing early pace. I’m instead going with the second-time starter Eagle Orb. This colt won his debut the right way. He professionally sat off the leaders in the early going, and showed a nice turn of foot at the top of the stretch before holding sway late over a resurgent runner-up. The major hurdle for him is the 14-day turnaround since his last start. He also loses debut rider Irad Ortiz to another rival in the field, but Irad may have already been committed as this colt was likely a late addition to the race. I like that Rudy is showing confidence and he doesn’t need to improve that much to beat this field. Plus, over the past 5 years, Rudy Rodriguez is 7 for 20 (35%, $3.95 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 3,7 with 3,4,5,7,8
 

RACE 8: CRESCENT LADY (#1)
I suppose Astoria Kitten is the horse to beat as she attempts to get her N1X win after just getting nailed on the wire at this level last time. I didn’t think she had much of an excuse to lose that race, as she was allowed to set a moderate pace and just got run down by a superior horse in Pecatonica. It did appear that horses who rode the rail and were forwardly placed had an advantage in that spot, so it’s worth at least taking a look at some of those who may have been compromised behind her. While Summer At the Spa was off the rail on the clubhouse turn, she got down inside around the far turn and ultimately just couldn’t mount a rally late while nearly losing third to next-out winner Giacosa. She has a right to do better here. I also would give a shot to Pandamom to rebound at a much better price. She was wide every step of the way in that same July 16 race, but ran well to beat next-out winner Kilkea when she broke her maiden two back. And then you have the stretching out sprinter Light in the Sky. She would obviously be a contender here if able to handle the two-turn distance, but I’m somewhat skeptical. My top pick is Crescent Lady. I realize that she has to get a bit faster to beat this field, but she projects to get a much better trip in this race than she received when she broke her maiden last time. She really had no right to win that race as she had to go wide around the turns and swing 4-wide at the quarter pole. Horses that finish behind her have returned to run reasonably well and I just think this filly has improved since returning this year as a 4-year-old. Furthermore Bill Mott is 6 for 32 (19%, $3.31 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in turf routes at NYRA over the past 5 years.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,8,9
 

RACE 9: INSIDE INFO (#12)
Freewheeler was a little disappointing in his first start back off the layoff last time to lose as the 4-5 favorite. However, he had excuses as he was last away from the gate, putting him out of position in the early going, and then had to close into a moderate pace. I think he’s better than that based on his solid two-year-old form and his encouraging workouts coming into that return. However, he will have to break better this time if he’s going to beat this deeper field. Another horse who disappointed at this level last time is Uncle George, who was never in contention as the 7-5 favorite at Belmont last time. I’m not really sure what was going on with his trip that day, as he was down inside at the back of the pack and his rider appeared to ride him like he was intimidated by getting placed in tight quarters. Ultimately, I don’t think that race is a true gauge of his ability. On the other hand, he got a great pace setup in his debut and there’s no guarantee that a repeat of that effort will be good enough to beat this field. I think there are plenty of other horses worth considering. Luna’s in Charge ran well in his lone turf start, and Three Outlaws owns a win over this track. Even longshot Big Package could make his presence felt if he moves forward off his juvenile form. Yet the alternative who intrigues me most is Inside Info. For a large field like this, there really isn’t much pace in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting that Inside Info will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and I think that makes him dangerous. Linda Rice tried to get this horse on the turf two back and was rained off, but he’s nevertheless shown improved form in his two dirt starts for this barn. I think he can handle the turf since he ran deceptively well in his debut on that surface last year. Some may also be deterred by the 5-day turnaround, but this is a strong move for Linda Rice.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 5,8,11,13
Trifecta: 8,12 with 8,12 with 2,5,11,13
 

RACE 10: SHARP STARR (#3)
Critical Value is the horse to beat, but I think she’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. Jeremiah Englehart has had trouble keeping her on the racetrack, as she’s only made one start in 2020. While she got the victory with ease in that Bouwerie Stakes last time out, it’s now taking her a while to follow up that performance. She was a vet scratch earlier last month out of a race that should have served as her prep for this affair. She can obviously win with her top effort, but I’m not sure that we’ll see it as she’s stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles. She’s really bred to be better going shorter distances, and I think she’s facing some fillies who are better suited to this two-turn route distance. I think Ice Princess is just as likely to win this race at what should be a slightly better price. She was progressing nicely over the winter at Aqueduct before her connections got a little too ambitious in a very tough edition of the Fantasy last time out. While she’s been most successful around one turn so far, she acts like a filly who should relish the added ground she gets to work with here. I’m using both of these fillies prominently, but my top pick is the improving Sharp Starr. This daughter of Munnings already handled the 9-furlong trip last time out, as she finished second in a N1X allowance event. While she lost as the favorite that day, she arguably ran the best race in defeat, as the track was favoring sped on July 22. She was one of the only horses on that entire card to make a significant run from the back of the pack and she did it while maneuvering her way through traffic. I think she’s getting better with every start and she may beat the favorites with another step forward.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with ALL