TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 6

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 4 - 1A
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 6 - 11
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 6 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 10 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 10:   2 - 6 - 8 - 10
Race 11:   4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 12:   2 - 6 - 4 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: I’M PERFECT TOO (#4)
Equal Pay may go favored yet again after getting eased to the wire as the 6-5 choice last time. She was going to win her debut quite easily, as she was opening up past the quarter pole. Yet she appeared to stumble over herself in upper stretch and lost Irad Ortiz. It’s understandable that she took so much money off that race in her next start, but she never looked comfortable over the muddy track. She trains like a horse with a ton of speed, but she is extremely headstrong – to the point that may be detrimental. I won’t be surprised if she wires the field, but don’t want a short price on her. Looking beyond the Chad Brown trainee this is a pretty weak field. Mun Luv has had her chances and Big City Momma, despite selling for a large price tag as a yearling, has yet to show much in her races. I’m taking a shot against these with the New York-bred I’m Perfect Too. This might seem like an ambitious placement against open company at first glance, but she actually fits quite well here off her first race. She was absolutely clobbered at the start that day, as she got slammed from both sides. She dropped far out of contention immediately after that incident, but she launched a strong run around the far turn and nearly got up for the victory. She’s stepping up in class, but that effort indicates she has some ability. Tom Albertrani is 13 for 98 (13%, $2.52 ROI) with maiden second time starters over the past 5 years.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6

RACE 3: NO WORD (#4)
This Bernard Baruch has only drawn five entrants, but all of them are serious contenders. Tell Your Daddy may be the horse to beat and the one to catch as he figures to go to the lead from the rail. He got a good trip last time when just second best to gate-to-wire winner Flavius, who was allowed to set a slow pace on the front end. He’s been an excellent claim by Tom Morley, as he was run very well in three of his four starts for this new barn, and had a legitimate excuse for the Poker two back. He’s a major player, but there are some intriguing rivals to his outside, a few of which still have upside. En Wye Cee figures to attract plenty of support off his obvious trip last time when he should have beaten today’s rival L’Imperator, but was boxed in for much of the stretch drive. This Todd Pletcher trainee has never won on turf, but he’s run well in all of his starts on this surface and has the tactical speed to work out the right trip here. I prefer him to closers like L’Imperator and Dreams of Tomorrow, but I’m worried that he’ll be overbet. I’m actually most interested in Pletcher’s other horse No Word. He doesn’t have the speed figure credentials of some others in here, but he showed real talent last year. He was just a half-length behind division leader Domestic Spending in the Saratoga Derby before running a good second in the Belmont Derby. He’s been off the board twice since then, but I thought he ran better than it appears in his return last time. He got rank into the first turn behind a moderate pace and then was just hung out wide every step of the way. He’s better than that and could get somewhat overlooked even in this short field.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,3,5

RACE 5: ARUBA (#7)
Realm of Law and American Law figure to attract the most support after finishing second and third behind Big Everest in a similar race at this level earlier in the meet. Realm of Law finished a head behind American Law last time but arguably ran the better race after having to swing wide making his move. He definitely has the ability to win at this level but he’s been short prices in all four starts and has been a disappointment. He’s the one to beat, but I can’t take him as the favorite again. American Law arguably has more upside in just his second turf start. He got a great trip last time but he did do well to hold off Realm of Law in the late stages. I like the rider switch to Luis Saez, who figures to be a little more aggressive from the outside post position. They’re the two most likely winners but I don’t anticipate that either one will offer value. I’m most interested in a first time starter. Aruba was entered for a $75k claiming tag earlier in the week but scratched when that race was rained off the turf to participate here instead. I don’t mind that so much considering that he’s a homebred 4-year-old gelding. This runner used to be in Chad Brown’s barn and had trained well on turf down in Florida before getting put away. He’s now resurfaced in Jorge Abreu’s stable, which I don’t mind at all since he’s gotten some live runners that were transferred from Chad Brown. He’s bred to handle turf as a son of Kitten’s Joy and a half-brother to turf winner Robo Man. I like the way he’s been working on dirt, including a recent gate drill in company with Party Line Vote, who won impressively on Sunday.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,6,8

RACE 7: COMMANDPERFORMANCE (#2)
Don’t Wait Up ran well enough to win many Spa maiden events in his debut. He was off about a length slowly and had to advance while racing 4-wide all the way around the far turn. He challenged the winner like he might go by in mid-stretch but lost the bob at the wire. This colt took plenty of money that day to go off at 7-1 for a barn that rarely wins on debut. Tony Dutrow is 3 for 18 (17%, $1.65 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years, and this was once a key move for him. Power Agenda, who defeated him, runs in the Hopeful later in the day. However he may have to show up again to defeat a few well meant first time starters. The one that appears to have the most ability to me is Commandperformance. This $220k yearling purchase is by 9% juvenile debut sire Union Rags. The dam broke her maiden routing on dirt and was third in the Silverbulletday routing on dirt. She’s produced one winner, Under a Spell, who ran his best race in his career debut. The dam is also a half-sister to minor stakes winner Prodigy Doll. Todd Pletcher is 16 for 86 (19%, $1.60 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in Saratoga dirt sprints over 5 years, and has had particular success this season. That Aug. 22 drill was in company with 4-year-old Chilean Group 1 winner First Constitution, and this guy was going slightly better. He also worked heads up with Misbehaved (4th on debut on Saturday) on Aug. 29. He appears to have talent.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,4

RACE 10: DEFEND (#2)
This Hopeful is billed as the showdown between Sanford winner Wit and Saratoga Special winner High Oak. They’re clearly the two colts to beat in this race, but they each come in with something to prove. Wit has been visually impressive in his two starts, but he’s faced some weak fields and has yet to run particularly fast. His TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Sanford was just a 97, and that number has held up pretty well based on a few runbacks. He’s going to have to run significantly faster to beat this field, and he will also have to overcome his bad gate habits. He’s broken slowly in both starts to date and overcome it, but he could be compromised if he gives away ground at the start against this tougher competition. High Oak was a somewhat surprisingly dominant winner of the Saratoga Special and did earn a respectable 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure forth that triumph. However, that was not a strong field coming in. He obviously took a big step forward, but now he’s facing a better field and may have to improve again. I respect both of these favorites but I believe they could be underlays. My top pick is the likely speed Defend. This colt earned a strong 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut at Delaware Park. While he wasn’t facing much that day, he absolutely dominated that race on the front end and won geared down under minimal urging. He’s stepping way up in class but Cathal Lynch has good statistics with this move. Over the past 5 years he is 5 for 13 (38%, $3.80 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints. I don’t see many true front-runners signed on here, and Luis Saez figures to be aggressive from this inside draw over a track that has been speed-favoring this week.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 6,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 6,8 with 3,6,8,10

RACE 11: GHOST GIANT (#4)
Early position figures to be of utmost importance in this one-mile allowance event over the inner course with the rails set at 0 feet. King Cause is the horse to beat as he returns from the layoff first off a trainer switch to Mike Maker. He’s drawn perfectly down towards the inside and obviously has prior form that is superior to his rivals. That said, you have to take a relatively short price off the layoff for Mike Maker, whose barn has been relatively cold over the last several weeks at Saratoga. A few runners are exiting a race at this level on Aug. 14. Cold Hard Cash arguably ran the best race that day as he was wide around both turns and only lost by a neck. That was a day when having inside position was an advantage during another period when the rails were down on the inner turf. Despite that wide journey he still finished ahead of today’s rivals Klickitat, who drew a terrible post here, and Atone, who was used to chase the pace that day. I’m using him prominently, but I went in a different direction. My top pick is Ghost Giant, who makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. I like the move up in class off the claim for a horse that finished just behind two of today’s rivals at a lower level last time. I also think he’ll appreciate the slight cutback in distance to a mile after tiring late going a more demanding 1 1/16 miles over yielding ground. Ricardo Santana should be able to work out a ground-saving trip from post four, and he has back races that will make him tough, as long as King Cause doesn’t show up with his best effort.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,7

RACE 12: PATH LESS TAKEN (#2)
The final race of the Saratoga meet is a fascinating affair which features a few fillies coming off trips. The clear horse to beat from my perspective is New York Supreme, who was incredibly unlucky not to win last time out. That Aug. 15 race featured a couple of fillies who cornered very badly on the far turn and this Tom Bush trainee got floated out about 6-wide for much of the bend. According to Trakus she covered 52 more feet than the winner – obviously far greater than the margin of victory. She had run well before fading in her return from the layoff two back and showed much more versatility and stamina last time. She may just be catching the right field now, but you’re not going to get the 6-1 she was last time, as she figures to get bet off that trip. She is more appealing to me than Stella Mars, who moved a little wide last time but was ultimately just second best at this level, and that’s not the first time she’s settled for a minor award. I’m more interested in a different filly out of that July 22 affair. Path Less Taken was last across the wire that day, but she got a subtly poor trip. She actualy broke with the field and was showing good tactical speed early before she got shuffled back around the turn and coming to the quarter pole. She found herself behind a wall of horses in upper stretch, and Junior Alvarado had to steady her a bit and then just eased her to the wire in traffic. She definitely could have attained a higher placing with a clear run, but it is unclear how good she is. Now she gets a rider switch to Chantal Sutherland and can do better at a price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 4,5,7

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 5

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 10 - 9 - 11
Race 3:   9 - 7 - 10 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 1/1A - 3 - 9
Race 6:   3 - 12 - 11 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 11 - 7 - 2
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 11:   7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 12:   1 - 6 - 8 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 3: BALINESE (#9)
Coalition Building is obviously the horse to beat as a likely heavy favorite in this $40k maiden claimer. She was compromised by a slow pace last time when only managing to get up for third at the $75k level. The potential for a quicker pace in this spot will help her, but that loss marked the fifth time in a row that she’s been defeated as the favorite. She’s generally had good trips in most of her other starts and her form is mostly exposed, so I didn’t want to take yet another short price on her. If Coalition Building loses, I think it’s most likely going to be done by a horse who gets the jump on her once again. I’m hoping that can be Balinese, who returns from a layoff and makes her 3-year-old debut for Phil Serpe. Notably, she is the only horse in this race who is not risked for the $40k tag, as her connections had the optional to withhold the claiming price due to the fact that she last raced for the same tag over 6 months ago. Both of those prior starts came over the Tapeta surface at Woodbine and I thought she ran decently in both starts. She chased a fast pace in her debut and then got the wrong trip next time when going 4-wide all the way around the turn in a race dominated by rail runners. She shouldn’t mind the switch to turf as a half-sister to Futurity winner Uncle Benny. I think it’s also meaningful that Luis Saez takes the mount for this low-profile barn, as he figures to be aggressive in a race with a murky pace scenario.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 7,10

RACE 6: FAIR HAIRED BOY (#3)
A couple of horses who could attract support here are both coming off maiden victories. Clever Fellow may go favored for Chad Brown after finally making it the winner’s circle last time. However, he needed a perfect trip as the odds-on favorite, and I’m not sure he actually ran any better than the runner-up in that spot, who got a perfect trip. I think he’s stepping up to face much tougher company here. Caribbean Gold ran a faster speed figure last time beating open company in his maiden score. He set a legitimate pace and did well to hold on. However, he won at a time when Mike Maker was very hot at the start of the meet, and he’s since cooled down. I’m interested in a pair of bigger prices. The longer of the two figures to be Public Information, who was running races that would make him competitive here when he was in Chad Brown’s stable two and three back. He regressed off the claim for Wayne Potts last time, but I thought he got a poor ride, ridden far too aggressively in the first furlong. Now he’s switched to Jorge Abreu, a much more productive turf trainer. My top pick is Fair Haired Boy. I tried this horse last time and thought he was simply second-best when taking plenty of money at this level. However, I want to give him another shot third off the layoff. He was competing over a yielding turf course last time and I think he’ll appreciate getting back on firm ground here. Furthermore, he’s trained well out of that race and he’s drawn towards the inside in a race where all of the others I’m considering have wide post positions. The Saffie Joseph barn has been cold all meet long, but this is one of the few horses that actually ran well for this stable.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 9,10,11,12
Trifecta: 3 with 11,12 with 4,9,10,11,12

RACE 7: SUMMER SNOW (#6)
Perhaps Classic Lynne will attract some support as the only runner with experience in this field. She ran pretty well in her turf debut, bounced around late in a roughly run race. She’s by Classic Empire, so I don’t mind the switch to dirt. Yet I do think there are a couple of potentially talented firsters in here. Classy Edition, another daughter of Classic Empire, sold for $550k at Fasig-Tipton after working a furlong in 10 1/5. This Chester and Mary Broman homebred is out of the solid mare Newbie, making her a half-sister to their stakes winner Newly Minted. This filly has been training very well for Todd Pletcher, whose juveniles have been showing up at this Saratoga meet. She’s the one to beat, but I’m interested in Summer Snow for Mark Hennig. This homebred is out of stakes-placed dirt sprinter Blithely, who raced for these same connections. Hennig is a strong 9 for 45 (20%, $4.13 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She’s been working in company with Chasing Artemis, who debuts against open company in the 8th race, and she’s been outworking that one. It appears that she has some ability for a barn that can win on debut.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 2,6

RACE 8: TEXIAN (#4)
Jester Calls Nojoy figures to be pretty tough for this group to handle as she makes the second start of her career. She showed excellent early speed in her debut and fought on valiantly through the stretch, just succumbing to the more experienced Gimmick in the late stages. She had worked well leading up to that race and ran to expectations. She obviously wouldn’t need to improve much to beat this group, and her experience should be an advantage going this 7-furlong distance. Todd Pletcher is 3 for 18 (17%, $1.22 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt at Saratoga over 5 years. And picking up the leading rider at the meet certainly doesn’t hurt. I’m hardly against her, especially since none of the firsters in this race appear to be training particularly well. However, I am interested in some other runners with experience who could get dismissed at bigger prices. Pletcher’s other filly Amani’s Image is certainly one to consider after she raced a bit greenly in her debut. She’s bred to stretch out, and has apparently trained well out of that unveiling. I’d use her, but I’m most interested in Texian at what could be a bigger price. This filly got an educational run in the debut, as she really wasn’t asked for much until the late stages by Jose Ortiz. That was obviously a tough spot, as she and most of the others in that field were no match for the talented Echo Zulu, the expected favorite in the Spinaway later on this card. She didn’t take much money that day, so perhaps there will be more intention this time. Her dam was a multiple dirt route winner, so she should handle the added ground. Plus, Shug McGaughey is 6 for 28 (21%, $2.34 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,8

RACE 9: THEODORA GRACE (#8)
This starter allowance seems totally wide open, so pace and trips could be key factors. Kemba is perhaps the runner coming in with the best turf form, but it’s hard to see her working out the right trip unless some other speeds take back. Shining Colors and Hohohoho have plenty of speed to her inside and Mopolka figures to be sending from the outside. Kemba has done her best running when she controls the pace and she may have to rate here. That said, she’s ridden by Luis Saez and he’s had a knack for working out the right trips at this meet. I want some horses who can come from off the pace. The most logical of those are Command Point and Baseline Drive. I didn’t know what to do with Command Point, who faced a good field at Arlington last time but has to validate that form in New York. Baselive Drive makes sense as she comes up from Florida. She’s an honest performer but not one that I’d want to take at a relatively short price. I’m most interested in a couple of longshots. One of those is Family Time. Her recent efforts have come on dirt and her turf performances look slower. However, when she was competing on turf, those efforts represented a slight improvement on her surrounding dirt form at the time. I think it’s possible that this 3-year-old filly has just improved overall lately, so perhaps she’ll translate that improved form to grass. The other horse that interests me at an even bigger price is Theodora Grace. She was visually impressive breaking her maiden against weaker two back, ranging up four-wide on the far turn before asserting her dominance through the lane. She tried a tougher level last time and got a subtly bad trip. She was too rank in the early going behind a moderate pace and then got shuffled back for about a quarter of a mile from the far turn until upper stretch. She was never winning or even hitting the board in that spot, but her effort isn’t as poor as it looks. Now she finds herself in a race with more pace, so she should have a chance to settle better.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7,11

RACE 10: LIMONITE (#5)
Mystic Night is clearly the horse to beat in this N2X allowance optional claimer. He was an impressive winner in his lone prior start going a two-turn 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct, a performance in which he beat a rail bias to get the job done. However, he’s only run once since March with his subsequent start surrounded by layoff lines. He perhaps didn’t love the sloppy track he encountered last time, but he was supposed to win that race against a slightly softer field. He’ll beat this field with this best effort but this is a competitive affair and I didn’t want to settle for a short price about whom I have some questions. Superfecto makes sense after finishing second to Danny California at this level last time. That rival returned just 4 days later to finish a distant third in a stakes. Superfecto set an honest pace when they met on Aug. 7 and held well for second. I think 9 furlongs is stretching him to his limit and he has other speed to contend with here. I’m using both of them, but I want to get a little more creative with a closer at a price. Limonite was running races that would make him competitive here going back to last winter for Amira Chichackly. However, he went off form for that low-profile barn and was put way for a little while. He resurfaced last time first off a trainer switch to Gustavo Rodriguez and woke up a bit despite facing a very tough field in the Alydar. He closed for fifth in a race that was dominated on the front end, and he was running on best of all late. I think he can step forward second off the layoff and I like the addition of blinkers, which could get him a little more involved early.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,9,10

RACE 11: DREAM LITH (#7)
Echo Zulu is obviously the horse to beat in this Spinaway as she stretches out off her visually impressive maiden victory on opening day. That was the faster of two maiden divisions on that card, and she was flattered when third-place finisher Outfoxed returned to run away with a stakes at Gulfstream last week. Echo Zulu may be very talented, but her 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, while the highest number in this field, doesn’t make her a total standout in this race. Steve Asmussen is just 4 for 23 (17%, $0.99 ROI) with 2-year-old last-out debut winners returning in dirt graded stakes over the past 5 years. She also has to contend with a difficult pace scenario, as the two runners drawn immediately to her outside appear to be committed to sending for the lead. Given her likely short price, I want to take a shot against her, and I’m most interested in horses who can rally from off the pace. One of those who interests me is Tarabi, who makes her second start for Cherie DeVaux. She got a great trip in her debut, slipping through along the inside before running away late, and can be a factor here. My top pick is Dream Lith, who I trust the most to get this demanding 7-furlong distance. This filly took no money in her debut but ran a professional race. She rated kindly on the backstretch and delivered a strong stretch rally when called upon, finishing with good power through the line. The runner-up came back to finish off the board in her next start, but actually repeated the same TimeformUS Speed Figure, so it’s a legitimate number. She’s bred to handle added ground and she doesn’t figure to be bothered by having to rally from off the pace.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,5,8

Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 4

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 12 - 3 - 9
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 6 - 8 - 9
Race 7:   10 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 9:   2 - 1A - 7 - 10
Race 10:   12 - 10 - 3 - 9
Race 11:   3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 12:   5 - 1 - 2 - 4

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 3: NORTH CAROLINA (#1)

RACE 5: OXANA (#1)

RACE 6: IRISH SEA (#7)

RACE 7: BRIGADIER GENERAL (#10)

RACE 8: NEVER SURPRISED (#4)

RACE 10: STAYIN' OUT LATE (#12)

RACE 12: NIGHT OPS (#5)

Picks & Plays for Friday, September 3

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   3 - 11 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 9 - 5
Race 7:   4 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 10:   1 - 8 - 4 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 6: HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY (#2)
The two fillies drawn down towards the inside both have a right to take to this surface after fading in their debuts on dirt. Doc Doc Rock was sent off as the even-money favorite that day and didn’t have much to offer after showing brief speed. However, she seems like one that is destined to do better on this surface. She had a bit of a turfy look to her prior to her debut, and her pedigree indicates that she should handle this surface. Her dam was Grade 3 placed on the turf and this filly is a half-sister to multiple turf winner Daring Duchess. I’d use her, but I’m more interested in the filly to her inside who finished just ahead of her last time. Howdyoumakeurmoney showed excellent early speed in that dirt start before coming to a stop in the final furlong. While she doesn’t have a ton of obvious turf pedigree, she’s by Freud and her dam is a half-sister to some Texas-bred turf horses, including a multiple stakes winner on that surface. This filly had worked like she had some ability prior to her debut and I think she may just now be getting on the right surface.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,5,9

RACE 7: VOODOO ZIP (#4)
Between the two Chad Brown runners, I prefer Emaraaty and think he is the horse to beat in this spot. He looked like a horse with a real future when he made his U.S. debut at Saratoga two years ago and he’s arguably been a bit of a disappointment since then. However, I thought he was significantly compromised last time at Aqueduct when he got caught behind a slow pace while racing wide around both turns and had little chance to make up ground. I’m not too concerned about the layoff since he’s been rained off the turf multiple times since then. He’s not a horse that I’d be running to the windows to bet at a short price, but I do think he’s the most likely winner. The other Brown runner Principled Stand does have upside in just his third career start but he needs to run a lot faster than he did last time, when he barely bested the inferior Red Storm Risen. I’m taking a shot against these Brown runners with Voodoo Zip. This horse has really stepped forward over the course of his last 3 starts. He was a dominant maiden winner at Gulfstream, and then had a poor trip in his first start against winners at Belmont. He got caught inside at a point when the race was falling apart and lost all momentum steadying in traffic. Even with that trouble he almost beat Red Storm Risen, who just missed to Principled Stand. Voodoo Zip came out of that race to beat a N1X allowance field last time going 7 furlongs and he did so while closing on a day when speed seemed to have an advantage on the turf. I don’t mind the stretch-out to a mile and he can use his tactical speed to work out the right trip.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 1,3,5,9

RACE 8: PRINCE OF PHAROAHS (#3)
Gold Panda and Big Bobby figure to vie for favoritism in this New York-bred allowance event. The former showed ability in his debut when staying on well behind the promising duo for Water’s Edge and King Angelo. He then took a significant step forward in his second start, showing vastly improved early speed to wire a field in the slop. He earned a strong 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance and a repeat of that number will make him tough. However, he is coming back just 15 days after that maiden win. Big Bobby was no match for the impressive Judge N Jury at this level last time but he still ran a respectable speed figure to be second. I do wonder if this horse was just ready to fire on debut because he really hasn’t moved forward at all since that unveiling. He’s obviously a major player once again, but I thought Gold Panda had more upside between the two favorites. Anotehr 3-year-old to consider at a better price is Work Out. He never had a chance last time after dumping his rider and running off prior to the start, and probably should have been scratched. My top pick, who should also be a square price, is Prince of Pharoahs. This 4-year-old gelding returns for Linda Rice with prior form that makes him competitive here. He ran poorly as a heavy favorite when last seen in February at Aqueduct, but he was off for a long time after that so something may have gone wrong. He had previously run well going this distance on Jan. 8 and I love the way he’s training for his return. Furthermore, Linda Rice is a strong 5 for 13 (38%, $4.30 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days on dirt at Saratoga over the past 5 years.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,6,7

RACE 9: BACKTOHISROOTS (#6)
Maven is arguably the horse to beat in this Lucky Coin as he returns from Royal Ascot for Wesley Ward. He wasn’t particularly competitive in that King’s Stand and now finds himself in a more realistic spot back on domestic soil. However, he’s going to take money off his victory at Keeneland back in April and I have some doubts about the quality of that race. Runner-up Boldor is an accomplished dirt horse who hasn’t run quite as well on the turf since that runner-up finish to Maven, and third-place finisher Joker On Jack is an inferior Wesley Ward stablemate who ran poorly up here earlier in the meet. Maven has thrown in his fair share of clunkers in his career, including as the favorite in the Mahony Stakes over this course and distance last year. He’s not for me. I actually think Pulsate might be the horse to beat as he gets back on turf. He just missed in this race last year, and it appears that he’s returned in top form as a 5-year-old. They took a shot on dirt last time, but now he’s back on his preferred surface and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip. My top pick is Backtohisroots. We haven’t seen this 5-year-old for a long time, but he was in career form when he last completed a race at Saratoga just over a year ago. He was an impressive allowance winner at the 2020 meet and took money in the G3 Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational off that score. He lost his rider at the start and never participated that day. However, now he returns for John Terranova, who is 6 for 19 (32%, $3.21 ROI) off 240+ day layoffs over the past 5 years.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 4,6
Trifecta: 6 with 4,8 with 4,5,7,8

RACE 10: GAILHORSEWIND (#1)
Lady Valentine is probably the horse to beat in this race, but I’m not thrilled with her at a short price. She got a great trip stalking Pathetique last time and was going nowhere in the stretch, only getting close late because the winner hit a wall in the last sixteenth of a mile. She handled the turf well enough, but that was the weaker division of two maiden races run on that July 24 card. I think there are more interesting options at better prices. I am interested in Pruning as she makes her NYRA debut for Shug McGaughey. This filly took a nice step forward in her second start at Colonial Downs last time when she arguably moved to soon and was reeled in late. She’s clearly still a work in progress but I like that she has some tactical speed and I think she fits nicely in this field. My top pick is Gailhorsewind on the stretch-out. I admit that I don’t know much about this trainer, other than the fact that he’s briefly had stakes horses like Alwaysmining and The Critical Way in his barn at different points in the past. This is just a filly who I’ve been waiting to see stretched out since her debut. It probably isn’t ideal that it took her connections three additional starts to make this move, but I do think she will appreciate the added ground. She’s a daughter of Flintshire out of a dam who did win going two turns on grass. She doesn’t give off the vibe of a sprinter, as she’s not quick on her feet and often hits her best stride too late in her races. I find it interesting that the connections are adding blinkers this time, which may be a sign that she will be more forwardly placed stretch-out. I don’t mind the switch to Ricardo Santana, who has been known to get aggressive in turf races.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,8

Picks & Plays for Thursday, September 2

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 6 - 11 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 1A - 3
Race 6:   1 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 4 - 9
Race 8:   4 - 10 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   2 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 15 - 8 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 4: OUR LAST BUCK (#1)
Aloha West figures to vie for favoritism off his gutsy allowance win earlier in the meet. A repeat of that 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure will make him tough, and he was flattered when the second and third-place finishers Night Time and Cost Basis returned to finish in those same positions behind the talented 3-year-old Beau Liam last week. This colt has trained forwardly in Saratoga since then, and doesn’t figure to be bothered by the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs. Though he is a closer in a paceless race, he overcame soft fractions to win last time. He’s the one to beat, but there are others to consider. I’m somewhat against the lone speed American Power. He figures to have a pace advantage, but I really didn’t like his effort in the Nerud last time and wonder if he’s heading the wrong way. Three Technique put in a fine effort in that same Grade 2 event, finishing a solid third behind the classy pair of Mind Control and Firenze Fire. I won’t hold his Vanderbilt against him, since he was just a little overmatched against that Grade 1 field. Seven furlongs is perfect and he’s drawn well outside. That said, I want to go in a different direction with Our Last Buck. This gelding really came to hand last winter, earning a stakes win at this distance over the talented Funny Guy. He was put on the shelf after that and didn’t resurface until earlier in this Spa meet. He caught a sloppy track in the Morrissey off the long layoff but ran an admirable race to stay on for third. He should benefit from that experience. While he’s stepping up into a tough spot here, he does have the tactical speed to sit close to likely leader American Power, and I believe he can cause an upset with his top effort.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with 2,3,4,5

RACE 5: MY BOY COLTON (#7)
There are only 5 runners left in this off-the-turf event, but two of them are going to get bet off turf form. Mubtadaa and Defferred Taxes have both never tried dirt in the afternoons, and they have dubious credentials to handle this surface. Both have trained decently over it in the mornings, but that isn’t the strongest evidence to suggest they’ll handle it come race time. In my opinion, the clear horse to beat is Boldish, who was entered as an MTO and is obviously a contender on the main track. I didn’t think he was meeting a particularly strong field last time but he ran well within the context of that race. He launched a strong far turn move and got there in mid-stretch before hanging. He’s one to consider but I have another idea at a better price. My Boy Colton is now switching surfaces for his second start. While he was entered for turf, I can’t imagine his connections are too upset that this race was rained off. He was a dirt pedigree, being by versatile sire Pioneerof the Nile out of a dam who was a Grade 1 winner on dirt. He looked very green in his debut, but he showed some speed before getting shuffled out of the race on the turn. I like that he’s drawn the outside post position here and I think he can improve on his initial effort.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,3,5

Picks & Plays for Wedneday, September 1

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 4:   6 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 6:   9 - 6 - 10 - 2
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 2 - 11
Race 8:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 10:   12 - 1 - 8 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 4: IN A HURRY (#6)
Clara Peeters is obviously the horse to beat based on her races from last year. She earned her lone U.S. victory going 7 furlongs around one turn, but she ran admirably in both starts going a mile at Saratoga last summer. She stretches out a bit this time but she certainly has the class to overcome that minor obstacle. The big issue is the layoff. Brad Cox is 11 for 58 (19%, $1.57 ROI) off layoffs of 240 days or more in turf routes over the past 5 years, though he’s 0 for 6 at NYRA within that sample. She’s trained forwardly for her return and is a deserving favorite. I just wouldn’t want to take a very a short price on her. I prefer In a Hurry as the best alternative at a better price. Like many runners from this barn, this filly has been steadily improving throughout her career. She appears to be in career form now as a 4-year-old, coming off her best effort yet. Racing in blinkers for the first time, she was more aggressive in the early stages before getting outkicked in upper stretch. It briefly looked like she might finish off the board before she surged for second. She has worked well since then and now lands in a spot where that newfound early speed could come in handy.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 8 with 2,3,7

RACE 8: BUSINESS MODEL (#5)
Recent maiden winner Vindictive and last-out starter allowance winner Runnin’ Ray figures to vie for favoritism here. The former Pletcher-trained runner seems like the most likely winner off his game win going this distance last time. That July 28 maiden event was easily one of the strongest of the meet, as this well-bred colt earned a strong 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure in victory. He had been mildly supported in his debut when finishing behind Travers third-place finisher Miles D, and he significantly improved on that form last time. He has more upside than Runnin’ Ray, who was game to win going this distance on July 30. He backed up that blowout victory against cheaper foes at Churchill two back, and will be a factor once again with a similar speed figure. The runner-up from that last race, Winter Pool, did return to win his next start. And this runner’s early speed should make him dangerous in a race that doesn’t feature a clear front-runner. I respect them, but my top pick at a better price is Business Model. This Godolphin homebred returned from a lengthy layoff two back with a powerful maiden victory, rallying boldly from off the pace to get the job done. He disappointed when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles at this level last time, but I thought he had legitimate excuses. It wasn’t easy to close over that opening day track when the dirt was deep and demanding. Furthermore, the all of the fractions for that race are color-coded blue in TimeformUS PPs, indicating a very slow pace. He figures to work out a better trip in his smaller field this time, and I still think he has upside for Brendan Walsh.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 6 with 1,3,4

RACE 10: LADY THORNHILL (#12)
Acushla is one of the logical contenders as she makes her second start as a 3-year-old after getting rained off the turf a few times prior to this. She ran pretty well in her debut, overcoming a sluggish start. However, she showed many of the same tendencies in her return at Belmont last time, again getting away slowly before making a middle move. She still has some room for improvement, but she just looks a little unfocused and one-paced. There are a few intriguing new faces like first time turfers La Victoria and Tapple Cider, but neither one has enough turf pedigree for him. I want to go in a different direction with Lady Thornhill, who drew the far outside post position. This filly showed nothing in her debut, but took a big step forward when David Donk put her on turf and stretched her out in her second start. Breaking from the rail, she got way too aggressive running into the first turn, opening up a sizable advantage while drifting out around the bend. Pablo Morales had a tough time settling her down, as she continued to race keenly into the backstretch. While the pace wasn’t exceptionally fast, she was setting those fractions the wrong way, fighting her rider. Most horses who run the first half of the race in such a manner will have nothing left for the stretch drive, but she actually battled on admirably when the closers came to her in the lane. I thought it was a strong effort, and I like that she’s being moved up in class into a protected spot for her return from the layoff. She has to cross over from this wide draw, but I think her speed could be dangerous as long as she settles a bit better this time.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,8,9,10

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 29

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   9 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 1A - 4 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   12 - 5 - 4 - 10
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 10:   7 - 9 - 5 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 3: BREAKING THE RULES (#2)
Sacred Life is a deserving favorite as he drops out of stakes company into this optional claimer. He’s been thrown into some tough spots over the past year, and has acquitted himself well on a few occasions, even picking up a Grade 1 placing when third behind stablemate Raging Bull in the Makers Mark Mile earlier this year. Since then he’s been a little disappointing, but it’s not as if his form has been terrible. He was a little flat through the late stages of the Dinner Party and then was compromised by a slow pace in the Forbidden Apple. He should be good enough to win here with anything close to his top effort, but the lack of pace could compromise his chances. Chad Brown’s other runner Analyze It is a bit more difficult to gauge. After winning the first 3 races of his career in impressive fashion, he’s gone just 1 for 9 since then with a few long layoffs sprinkled in between those starts. His last effort was decent, but he didn’t have much excuse to get run down by stablemate Value Proposition. I’m taking a shot against this Chad Brown duo with Breaking the Rules. This classy horse returns from another layoff after finishing off the board in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup in January. His form prior to that had been solid, as he had finished a decent third in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale. Most importantly, he ran two of the best races of his career when making his comeback from another lengthy layoff last summer, winning both at Belmont and here at Saratoga. He obviously has it in him to beat a field like this, and I think he may run well off the break.

Win: 2
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 4,5

RACE 5: A MO REAY (#7)
Mommasgottarun has to be considered the horse to beat after finishing a strong second on debut earlier this month. She was asked to go 6 1/2 furlongs that day and did well, setting a strong pace before succumbing to the longshot Dream Lith in the lane. She still drew 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field to earn a solid 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure A repeat of that performance may be good enough to win here. Furthermore, Tom Amoss is 14 for 41 (34%, $2.73 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. I’m not against her, but I am also interested in fellow experienced runner Gerrymander. This well-bred filly was a big disappointment in her debut, but she’s worked well since then and figures to show up with a better effort second time out. That said, there are some intriguing first time starters signed on. The one that I want most is A Mo Reay. This My Racehorse / Spendthrift-owned filly is a $400k yearling purchase. She’s by 14% juvenile debut sire Uncle Mo, and the dam achieved all of her success on the turf. Todd Pletcher is 16 for 88 (18%, $1.57 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in Saratoga dirt sprints over 5 years, and he’s sent out 5 of those winner at this current meet. This filly has been working very well for the debut, posting some fast gate drills before recently going best in company with debut winner Goddess of Fire on Aug. 15, and with a couple of other mates on Aug. 22. She looks ready to fire despite the sketchy dam’s side pedigree. I would also use fellow firsters Run for the Hills for Mark Casse and Distinctlypossible for Chad Brown.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,10

RACE 6: GUN BOAT (#3)
I suppose the experienced Bali Belle has to be considered a contender in this spot, but she was decidedly third-best in her debut and I thought some first time starters were more interesting. Chad Brown has two firsters in this race, both of whom could attract some support. Vagaries was purchased by Klaravich Stables for $217k at the Tattersalls sale, and these overseas acquisitions are typically dangerous. She worked with debut winner McKulick in that Aug. 1 drill and held her own with that promising stablemate. Kinchen also goes out for Brown as another daughter of Lope de Vega. Her dam is a half-sister to a Group 2 winner on turf, so there is plenty of quality in her family. I found it difficult to get a read on her workouts, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she had some ability. My top pick is Gun Boat. This homebred filly is by 10% juvenile debut sire War Front who wins with 16% of his turf route starters. The dam earned all of her victories on turf and is a G3 winner on that surface. Shug McGaughey is 4 for 24 (17%, $2.82 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in turf routes over 5 years, and is 2 for 3 with such runners at this current Saratoga meet. She has been clearly best working in company with the 3-year-old maiden Let’s Go Native in some recent turf drills, and looks like she has some ability.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7,10

RACE 7: CHARLIE FIVE O (#12)
Montauk Daddy will probably go favored once again off his victory against claiming foes in that recent off-the-turf event. He has the speed to make the lead here, as he usually does, but I think he’s a better dirt horse than turf horse. He just doesn’t have any finishing power over the grass. He got a great trip at Belmont on May 21 and couldn’t seal the deal and two back he absolutely fell apart through the stretch when pushed on the front end. I’m looking elsewhere for my top pick. Fellow speedster Stanhope is dangerous on the turnback, since he has at least shown some ability to rate in his turf sprints. He ran off on the front end last time and should do better second off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. My top pick is first time turfer Charlie Five O. This colt doesn’t have a ton of obvious turf pedigree, but Cinco Charlie has compiled a record of 8 for 41 (19%) with this turf starters and is 4 for 16 (25%) with his progeny in turf sprints. The dam did win on grass and there is some turf pedigree in the second generation. I find it interesting that Mike Maker claimed him just 8 days ago and is immediately switching surfaces. He was well meant last time but was one of many horses in the Linda Rice barn who got an unfortunate trip. He had good gate speed but was then rated and found himself getting shuffled back in the pocket. He had to bull his way through when stuck in traffic in upper stretch and finished admirably for third in a tough spot. I like the outside draw and think he’s an intriguing new face if he can handle this surface.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 4,5,10

RACE 9: RANGER FOX (#1)
It’s hard to know where the public will settle in this wide open edition of the Better Talk Now. Sifting Sands figure to attract support going out for the powerful Chad Brown stable. He comes off a victory at the N1X level but he paid a shocking $58 to win that day, and now he’s going to be among the favorites. Horses like this are typically ones you don’t want to bet back, but he did beat a solid field last time and may just finally be putting it all together. Straw Into Gold was a little disappointed as the favorite when facing New York-bred allowance horses last time. That wasn’t the strongest field for the level and he never really picked up the pace, but it is worth remembering that race was run during a rainstorm just before they took the rest of the card off the turf. He ran better with a perfect trip in the Manila two back and is a contender with a similar effort. I want to go in a different direction with recent maiden winner Ranger Fox. I like the progression that this John Terranova trainee has made through his three turf starts. He got a good trip stalking a slow pace in his turf debut, but subsequently improved when just missing on June 5 after setting an honest pace. Yet his last race is what really impressed me, as Joel Rosario decided to rate him behind horses, and he did so willingly before still producing a strong stretch run. A mile is probably the farthest he’ll want to go, but he’s drawn well down towards the rail and can work out another stalking trip.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6,7,8
Trifecta: 1 with 6,8 with 2,3,6,7,8

RACE 10: JARREAU (#7)
I had a tough time handicapping this race and an even tougher time coming up with a morning line. I suppose Molino could go favored off his debut win against maiden claiming company. Digital Software did come back out of that race to win his next start, but he’s not superstar. It seems like a red flag that it’s taken him over 3 months to get back to the races, and I’m somewhat against him here. Landbiscuit is perfectly logical after finishing fourth at this level last time. He had to alter course a bit in the stretch around a runner who lost his rider, and may have moved too soon anyway. I think he’s better than that performance and can rebound here. I would also use Calibogee, who ran quite well within the context of that Aug. 5 race and can get another forward trip. My top pick is Jarreau. This runner was arguably best two back when he had to wait in traffic and got rolling too late behind a heavy favorite. He was claimed out of that spot by Mike Maker and stayed in an off-the-turf race last time. He’s not really a dirt horse, but he still ran an admirable race behind the superior Claytonthelionheart. Now he gets back on his preferred surface and has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5,9
Trifecta: 7 with 5,9 with 2,4,5,6,9