TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 5

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 6:   6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 10 - 8
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   16 - 10 - 15 - 7
Race 10:   10 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 11:   2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 12:   6 - 1 - 7 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: CAMP AKEELA (#9)

This is a strange race, since all of the appealing experienced runners are drawn on the also-eligible list, and the main body of the field is primarily composed of first time starters. If horses like Showmeyourheels (#13) or Souffle (#15) draw into the field, they would obviously be major players, but it seems unlikely they get to participate if this race stays on turf. Among the first time starters, I expect Atomic Girl (#5) to take some money. She doesn’t have that much pedigree, but she worked a nice 10-flat at the OBS June sale, and is out of a dam who won 6 times on turf. She’s posted some very fast recent workouts over the dirt track at Saratoga, but she goes out for a trainer that isn’t known for winning on debut. Three Girls (#8) also makes sense going out for Jeremiah Englehart. Collected hasn’t yet had much success as a turf sire, but this one did sell for $150k at the same OBS sale after working in 10 1/5. I’m going in a different direction with one of the few experienced runners in the main body of the race. Camp Akeela (#9) showed very little in her dirt debut early in the meet. She couldn’t keep up in the opening furlong and then backed up through the field. However, she does have much more of a turf pedigree. Laoban is an 11% turf sprint sire, and the dam has been a good producer, getting 6 winners who have had most of their success on turf, including a number who ran overseas. She has a turf stride to her and looked to really pick up the pace in that recent grass drill. Tom Amoss is 9 for 50 (18%, $2.55 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time over 5 years.

WIN: #9 Camp Akeela, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6: WATERVILLE (#6)

If this competitive NY-bred allowance stays on the grass, Whatlovelookslike (#1) could go off as the slight favorite as part of an entry. She improved significantly to break her maiden early in the meet, and ran up to a similar level in her first try against winners last time. However, she did work out a great trip, saving ground early on a day when the inside path was the best place to be. She angled out for the stretch drive and just missed after making a late rush. She’s an obvious contender, but I prefer the horse who finished right behind her last time. Waterville (#6) had the slightly tougher trip, as she was never on the inside path while racing 2 to 3-wide throughout. She made a good run to reach contention in the final furlong before flattening out. Though she’s never crossed the wire first, she’s run well in each of her last three starts, with layoffs in between all of them. I like that she’s finally putting races back to back and think she has a right to take a step forward. She also possesses better tactical speed than a few others in here, and there isn’t much pace in this affair. New Ginya (#2) also makes some sense for the Christophe Clement barn, though I thought she should have gotten the job done last time. I do prefer her from that race, though I could also use I’m Fine (#3), who had a bit of a trip finishing sixth behind her.

WIN: #6 Waterville, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,2,3

RACE 8: WAR STOPPER (#5)

This $50k claimer has attracted a highly competitive field, featuring a few runners dropping down with plenty of back class. Among those are Grade 3 stakes winner Night Ops (#3), as well as Pletcher trainees Portos (#7) and Bal Harbour (#9). I’m against both Pletcher runners, but I do think Night Ops is a little interesting. The drop is just realistic for a horse who has seen better days, and he was in against much tougher last time. Gentleman Joe (#1) might be the horse to beat as he drops slightly off the claim for Rob Atras. He was meeting better rivals last time when finishing behind Stage Raider and The Reds, the latter of which came back to win at the same level. Atras has had a quiet Saratoga meet, but he’s usually dangerous in these situations and this horse has speed from the inside. Air Attack (#2) also makes some sense as he makes his first start off the claim for Phil Bauer. This barn isn’t known for their claiming prowess, but Bauer has had a very strong meet and this horse certainly has the prior speed figures to contend. My top pick is War Stopper (#5), who is yet another making his first start off the claim. This one goes out for Mertkan Kantarmaci, who is 14 for 65 (22%, $2.14 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at NYRA over the past 5 years. I thought he ran a nice race at Keeneland two back, and he was never beating impressive winner Zoomer last time. That was his first start in 3 months and he has a right to be fitter second off the layoff. I also like that he can be forward in a race that features a murky pace scenario. The presence of Eric Cancel will inflate the price, but Kantarmaci has used him on some live runners.

WIN: #5 War Stopper, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 1,2,3

RACE 11: FORTE (#2)

I imagine that Gulfport (#4) will once again get bet down to favoritism in this Hopeful even though he lost the Saratoga Special as the odds-on choice. Some may contend that he could have won that debut if not for the trouble on the far turn, but I thought he just didn’t possess the quickness to maintain position when Damon’s Mound made his move. He enjoyed an uncontested lead when he won the Bashford Manor so impressive two back, and I’m still waiting for him prove his quality against tougher rivals. Mo Strike (#5) seeks to make it three in a row after winning the Grade 3 Sanford early in the meet. I liked the way he finished that day as he responded to pressure late, drawing off from his main rival Andiamo a Firenze, who did come back to win off that performance. Mo Strike seems like one that should handle added ground, and he’s drawn well outside of his main pace rival. I actually think he’s the horse to beat in this spot. Some will be intrigued by Blazing Sevens (#6) off his impressive debut win for Chad Brown. However, Brown has poor stats off debut wins in dirt sprints and I’m not in love with the race this horse exits. My top pick is Forte (#2). He did finish well behind Mo Strike in the Sanford, but I thought he was compromised both by the moderate pace that race and the intense kickback on opening week of the meet. This colt had been impressive in his career debut, and I don’t think he’s going to have to deal with as much traffic in this smaller field. He galloped out strongly last time, and I think this 7-furlong distance is going to suit him well.

WIN: #2 Forte, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 5

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 4

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 2 - 11 - 8 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 8 - 10 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 1A - 3
Race 7:   6 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 7 -
Race 9:   4 - 10 - 1A - 2
Race 10:   7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 11:   1 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 12:   1/1A - 4 - 9 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 5: GIRAMONTE (#7)

Logical favorites Sheriff Bianco (#6) and Athenry (#8) both make sense in this spot. I suppose I somewhat prefer Sheriff Bianco, since he seems a little more proficient at this 5 1/2 furlong distance, but they did run comparable races when they met last time out. The short price that doesn’t interest me is Golquist (#1), who rode a gold rail while setting a slow pace last time out. He’ll beat me cutting back in distance. I’m just taking a shot against these with Giramonte (#7), who is getting a significant rider upgrade to Javier Castellano. This horse can be a little tough to handle at times, but he’s run better than it appears on a few occasions recently. His last start at this level was disappointing, but he was tentatively handled that day after getting rated off the pace. He possesses more tactical speed than that, and has back races that make him competitive.

WIN: #7 Giramonte, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6: TAKE CHARGE BRIANA (#2)

Stonestreet homebred Pure Pauline (#4) is likely to take some money as the only debut runner in this field. She’s out of a dam who won the G2 Black Eyed Susan, who has produced one full-sibling who earned both victories on turf. Todd Pletcher is 4 for 32 (13%, $0.99 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in 6.5 to 7 furlong dirt races at Saratoga over the past 5 years. She’s been coming along nicely in her workouts, and was best in company from the gate in that fast drill on Aug. 21. I won’t be surprised if she runs well, but this is a tough spot for a first time starter. There are a few with experience who have a license to improve. Bill Mott sends out a pair of runners, both with upside. I prefer Misintention (#6), a Godolphin homebred who closed decently up the rail in her debut. She’s been working well out of that race, recently looking best in company with debut runner-up Arthur’s Ride, who runs on Saturday. My top pick is Take Charge Briana (#2). This well-bred Lukas filly has been coming along nicely through two career starts, and now takes the next logical step, stretching out to 7 furlongs. She was beaten by some pretty good Todd Pletcher trainees in the first couple of starts, including Kaling, who is a major player in the Spinaway. She showed improved tactical speed last time, which should serve her well from this rail draw. The added distance is not supposed to be an issue for the daughter of Curlin, and it certainly doesn’t hurt to have Prat take over the reins.

WIN: #2 Take Charge Briana, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 7: THIRTY THOU KELVIN (#6)

This race appears to center around second time starters, and there are a few with turf experience. Free Look (#4) could go favored for Chad Brown after closing well from last to get up for third in her debut. She finished behind subsequent stakes winner Be Your Best, who looks like one of the best 2-year-old turf fillies in the country at this stage. Free Look did have to wait in traffic on the far turn, but she got pace ahead of her and ultimately did work out a clear run through the lane. She may do better in her second start, and I would say the same about Freydis the Red (#2), who exits that same race. She didn’t finish as well as Free Look, but this McPeek trainee was wider on the turns. His runners tend to benefit from a start and she has a nice turf route pedigree. La Mazel (#3) also looks pretty appealing, possibly at a better price. This Tony Dutrow trainee was well back in the early stages of her debut, but made a nice little move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out. That was a very strong maiden heat, as the winner looks talented and runner-up Xigera has already come back to win impressively. The issue is that all of these fillies ran as closers first time out. I’m instead going with potential speed Thirty Thou Kelvin (#6). She chased the pace in her dirt sprint debut before fading, but looks like one that can improve on grass. Bolt d’Oro has had some success with his grass runners so far, this filly is out of a dam who was best on turf. She’s worked well on the Oklahoma turf course since her debut, and Danny Gargan’s runners tend to improve after a start.

WIN: #6 Thirty Thou Kelvin, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 2,3,4

RACE 9: TIMBUKTU (#4)

I have no major issue with Catch That Party (#1A), who seems like the horse to beat after closing to victory at the starter allowance level last time out. He also ran better than the result indicates two back when blowing the start. He arguably does have the most natural talent of anyone in here, but his deep-closing style does make it a little more difficult to work out a trip. Frank’s Art (#5) may also attract support off his narrow loss on the stretch-out last time. However, I think this horse has gotten fantastic trips and setups in both career starts. He closed into a fast pace on debut in a race that completely fell apart in the late stages, and last time he saved ground for much of the way, riding an advantageous rail path before angling out. I prefer Timbuktu (#4) from that Aug. 10 race. He finished farther back in the pack, but just got the wrong trip. Breaking from the outside post position, he was wide around both turns, which was not a path to success when the temporary rails were down on the inner turf course that week. This horse had run well in his prior start at this level at Belmont, and the slight stretch-out in distance from last time figures to suit him. The other horse that I want to use is Citizen K (#10). I’m not as convinced that the distance suits him, but he did run better than the result would suggest in his first attempt going this far last time. He was very wide into the clubhouse turn and proceeded in the 3-path racing without cover for much of the race. That’s an especially tough trip for a horse who had previously been a closing sprinter.

WIN: #4 Timbuktu, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 1A,2,10

RACE 11: KALING (#1)

This Spinaway has drawn a talented and competitive field of 10 juvenile fillies. The horse to beat is arguably Wonder Wheel (#9), who is seeking her third victory in a row after romping in the Debutante late in the Churchill Downs meet. She doesn’t have a significant speed figure edge this time, but she has trained well over the main track at Saratoga, registering an impressive series of drills leading up to this Grade 1 test. Also in the field are recent Saratoga stakes winner Just Cindy (#5) and Naughty Gal (#4). The former wasn’t beating the strongest field in the Schuylerville, but seems like one that should have no trouble with the added ground. Naughty Gal is a little tough to endorse after she blew the turn and raced so greenly through the stretch of the Adirondack, though she obviously has some talent. However, I’m most interested in a couple of local debut winners. My top pick is Kaling (#1), who was so professional in her debut score early in the meet. She had trained aggressively into that race, but showed no keenness in the afternoon, kindly rating off two horses before passing them at the quarter pole. She strikes me as one that should love this 7-furlong distance, and I’m very encouraged by the way she’s trained out of that victory. The other filly that I want is Leave No Trace (#6), who figures to be a better price. She won a weaker auction-restricted race on debut, but she traveled strongly into a fast pace to break the race open that day. The pacesetter returned to win with a much faster speed figure in her second start, and I won’t be surprised when this one has a step forward in her.

WIN: #1 Kaling, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 6

Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 3

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   12 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   9 - 2 - 5 - 10
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 8 - 9 - 3
Race 9:   4 - 9 - 5 - 2
Race 10:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 11:   5 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 12:   6 - 10 - 3 - 8
Race 13:   8 - 11 - 5 - 9

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1
WIN: #1 Read On, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 3
WIN: #5 Strong Quality, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5
WIN: #12 Hatch, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7
WIN: #3 Foolish Ghost, at 5-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Cost Basis, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8
WIN: #6 Rocket Can, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9
WIN: #4 Sanctuary City, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 11
WIN: #5 Americanrevolution, at 2-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, September 2

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 10 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 10 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   10 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   6 - 9 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 3: GOOD MEDICINE (#1)

Both Most Wanted Man (#2) and Tiz a Giant (#3) exit the same race at this level going 1 3/16 miles. The former arguably had the tougher trip since he had to go wider on the far turn. However, Most Wanted Man had his chance to get up for second in the lane and just didn’t really finish off the race. I don’t exactly get the vibe that more ground suits him as much as I do from Tiz a Giant. This Michael Trombetta trainee handled 11 furlongs when running a good second at this level two back. I like him stretching back out and won’t be surprised if he shows a bit more tactical speed this time. Todd Pletcher has the two other runners with considering. I thought Outperform (#4) ran fine in his turf debut, just hitting his best stride a little too late. However, I have some doubts about the quality of that affair and there’s no guarantee that added ground will suit him. My top pick is Pletcher’s other runner Good Medicine (#1). I thought he really improved with the stretch-out in distance in his two starts going longer at Belmont. He held on well for second behind the talented Balthus on May 20 and then made a nice run into the trifecta on June 18 despite breaking slowly and getting a wide trip. They did risk him for a tag last time, but I thought he again stayed on well that day, and it’s not as if this field came up much tougher than that one. Flavien Prat has ridden well for the Pletcher barn, and I thought this one would be a fair price.

WIN: #1 Good Medicine, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 3,4

RACE 5: CONTROL FUNCTION (#4)

Christophe Clement holds a strong hand here, as he sends out a pair of contenders who could vie for favoritism. Eylara (#1) has been short prices in all three of her U.S. starts, and is still searching for her first victory in this country. I didn’t think she had a major excuse in either of her last two starts, and she’s arguably stepping up to meet a tougher field this time. I prefer the other Clement runner Classic Colors (#6). She closed impressively to get up for the win two back, defeating next-out winner Marvelous Maude. She wasn’t as effective last time when finishing behind Eylara, but she just didn’t seem to handle the added distance in that 11-furlong affair. I like this cutback for her, and I think she’s still not fully exposed as a lightly raced 4-year-old. I could say the same about my top pick, Control Function (#4). I know she looks a little slow coming into this, as she earned an inferior speed figure in her only turf start against maiden claiming company last year. However, she won that race like one who had greater potential than the level would suggest. She was protected in her next start on Tapeta at Gulfstream, but could never reel in the gate-to-wire winner. She’s been off for a long time since then, but she’s been training very well for her return. It appears that this daughter of Kitten’s Joy has taken a step forward since we last saw her compete, and I think she could actually be a fair price despite going out for the Chad Brown barn.

WIN: #4 Control Function, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 6: BANTERRA (#5)

This New York-bred maiden event looks like a matchup between two fillies who finished second on debut. Security Code (#10) exits the faster race, having finished second to next-out stakes winner Maple Leaf Mel. I thought she put in a game try that day, chasing the winner with determination while well clear of the rest of the field. She’s obviously going to be tough to beat if able to produce a similar effort, but I wonder how much she upside she has coming out of that race given how professional she seemed on debut. I prefer Banterra (#5), who also finished second to a talented winner when crossing the wire 6 lengths behind Miracle. That foe returned to disappoint slightly when she faced stakes company next time out. However, I nevertheless think Banterra has room for improvement off that debut. She got a somewhat educational trip, as she broke from the outside post position and was wide into the turn before tucking in behind some rivals. She ultimately ended up moving wide at the three-eighths pole before flattening out in the late stages. Steve Asmussen does typically have his runners ready to win on debut, but this one may do better with a start under her belt. She’s trained well out of that race and I don’t mind the rider switch to Flavien Prat. A first time starter would have to be pretty good to beat either of these runners, but Stonewall Star (#2) seems like a candidate to get into the mix. She’s trained well for her debut and Horacio DePaz can certainly win with a first time starter. I’ll use her with the pick.

WIN: #5 Banterra, at 9-5 or greater
USE: 2,10

RACE 9: UNION LAKE (#10)

The expected scratch of Smash Ticket takes some of the speed out of this race, but they still figure to be moving up front. That makes the task of Hot Peppers (#2) a little more difficult, since she appears to be committed to setting the pace from her inside post. She’s one of the few runners from her barn to have success at this meet when she finished an excellent second in the Grade 1 Test. I thought she was game to fend off heavy favorite Matareya for second after setting a fast pace in a race that fell apart. There was some bumping in the stretch, but it didn’t appear to significantly affect the outcome. She’s awfully tough to pass when she makes the lead, and looks like the one to beat. Angitude (#6) could also take some money off her third-place finish in the Wilton Stakes. That was going a mile, but she’s been effective sprinting in the past and just seems to be an improving sort. She set the pace last time, but Joel Rosario will likely have to adapt to a stalking role this time. She’s a contender, though I preferred another. Union Lake (#10) showed promise as a 2-year-old, and has seemingly come back in strong form since returning from the layoff this year. She was game to sneak up the rail to break her maiden two back, and improved upon that performance when stepped up against winners last time. Third-place finisher Repealing returned to win out of that race, as did today’s rival Bank On Anna. She’s working well coming into this and should sit the right trip from her outside slot.

WIN: #10 Union Lake, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Thursday, September 1

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 9 - 4 - 1A
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 10:   6 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 11:   4 - 9 - 3 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 3: RUN FOR COVER (#7)

A few of the main players in this auction-restricted 2-year-old maiden are exiting a race at the same level from Aug. 5. Sirius Light (#4) achieved the best result that day, improving significantly with the switch to turf. She got steadied soon after the start and found herself last of 10 runners moving down the backstretch. However, she got a very good trip after that, saving ground behind a fast pace before rallying well through the lane to get up for second. She’s the one to beat, but she figures to be favored here whereas she was 19-1 last time. Influentialous (#6) was one of those contesting the pace, so she obviously has a right to run better. My top pick is Run for Cover (#7), who finished a little farther back in the pack. However, this filly had to be used hard early breaking the rail that day. She rushed up to chase Influentialous before having to alter course around that rival on the far turn. She moved up menacingly at the top of the stretch but seemed to take an awkward step coming off the turn after faded thereafter. She had worked well into her debut and I think she’s capable of better. Mark Casse is 13 for 52 (25%, $2.55 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years. There are also first time turfers that merit consideration. Numero Seis (#5) has damside pedigree, but I’m not a fan of Frosted as a sire. I could use him underneath.

WIN: #7 Run for Cover, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,5,6

RACE 4: GLYNN COUNTY (#3)

I’m not particularly fond of either Chad Brown runner in this field. I have no use for Flop Shot (#2), who didn’t run well at all last time and was never the most reliable win candidate even when he was in form. Value Engineering (#4) makes more sense and is arguably the one to beat. He ran a big race going this distance over Flop Shot last October, so I’m not that concerned about the slight cutback. He ran fine coming off the layoff last time, but I didn’t think he had a major excuse that day. He just could never get close to Street Ready (#6), who set the pace and almost wired the field before getting run down by Soldier Rising on the wire. This horse was 27-1 last time, but he had run well in multiple starts prior to that and was fairly underrated coming into that race. While he figures to be a much shorter price this time, I think he’s once again going to be dangerous from the front end. Bye Bye Melvin (#5) could apply some pressure, but I suspect his connections will be looking to get him off the pace this time with the blinkers coming off. He was a little headstrong off the layoff last time and just couldn’t quite hang on late when facing a good field. The stretch-out won’t be a problem and he’s a contender. I’m just going in a different direction with Glynn County (#3), who should be the best price of the contenders. He has to prove that he’s as effective going this distance as he has been over marathon trips. However, he’s simply been in over his head in some recent starts at the graded stakes level. He was running on well the last time that he tried allowance foes on the turf at Keeneland in April, but encountered traffic in the stretch. He was effective going this distance earlier in his career and he figures to get somewhat lost in the wagering even in this small field.

WIN: #3 Glynn County, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6: BALSA (#5)

Inflation Nation (#6) is obviously the one to beat off his encouraging debut performance in July. Reserved off a fast pace in the early going, he made what seemed like a winning move to range up alongside leader Appraise in midstretch before getting turned away by that rival. Despite hanging a bit, he still earned a strong 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance, and a repeat of that effort will make him awfully tough to beat. Though, it is worth noting that Appraise did return to disappoint slightly in his next start against stakes company. I prefer another runner with experience who is actually switching surfaces. Balsa (#5) sprinted on dirt in his debut and showed plenty of speed before backing up through the stretch. He was a little chilly on the tote board that day and probably needed that experience. He’s now switching over a surface that he’s bred to handle, as he’s by excellent turf sire Street Boss out of a dam who won sprinting on grass. He’s worked well since the debut, accomplishing a nice team drill in company with Sanford winner Mo Strike a couple of weeks ago. I expect a much better performance this time. There are also a couple of first time starters who interest me. Listentothemusic (#4) has some grass pedigree and has trained well into his debut. Mo Saturdays (#7) also seems quite dangerous for Al Stall, who is 5 for 20 (25%, $5.20 ROI) with first time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. He has enough grass pedigree, and he’s trained very forwardly into this debut, going well in company with recent debut winner Gilcrease a few weeks ago.

WIN: #5 Balsa, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Mo Saturdays, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: OUR JESSICA (#7)

I suppose the public will default to Chad Brown and make Dream of Change (#9) the favorite in this conditioned claimer. She is dropping in for a tag for the first time, but I can’t say that I’m particularly encouraged by her form. She wasn’t facing the toughest allowance field at Monmouth last time and had her chance to win while just hanging between horses in the stretch. A repeat of that performance may put her in the winner’s circle here, but I didn’t want to pick her at a short price. Command Point (#4) may also attract some support as she makes her second start off the layoff for Rob Atras. She had earned superior speed figures when in George Weaver’s barn last year, but it’s unclear if she’s still capable of producing that form. She was against a slow pace in her return, but she saved all the ground and still didn’t have much of a response through the lane. I prefer Our Jessica (#7) from that Aug. 5 affair. She finished one spot behind Command Point, but undoubtedly had the tougher trip. For whatever reason, Jose Ortiz made no attempt to get her forward, grabbing her out of the gate and taking her immediately to last-place. She predictably got rank under that restraint as the pace slowed down into the clubhouse turn and fought her rider while going wide into the bend. She proceeded in the 2 to 3-path for the rest of her trip, never put in a position to be effective. I think she’s capable of better and she appeared to be improving when she broke her maiden against weaker two back. I like the rider switch to John Velazquez, who should have her more forward this time.

WIN: #7 Our Jessica, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9: UP AND DOWN (#7)

The horse to beat among those with experience might be Cowichan (#11), who is drawn on the also-eligible list. She closed decently for second last time, but was no match for winner Alluring Angel, who was moving even faster to her outside. She’s run well in all three starts, but Wesley Ward is supposed to win with these types before their fourth career starts. Ward’s other runner Stars On Fire (#3) is in the main body of the field and seems like she should be well suited to these conditions. She’s trained well on turf leading into this and is from a good turf sprinting family. It’s just a little odd that he’s named the apprentice Jose Gomez on the horse, though that may be partially due to the fact that some jockeys are currently on suspension. Illicit (#8) ran well in her debut, setting the pace in that same race Cowichan exits. She just got leg weary late after blazing some fast fractions on the front end. She could be fitter for her second start for a barn whose runners tend to do better with experience. Georgees Spirit (#5) is another who could improve upon her debut. She didn’t run that badly on the dirt, but was entered for turf that day and seems like one that is better suited to this surface. The aforementioned runners all make sense, but I wanted to go in a different direction with a first time starter. Up and Down (#7) is one of two Chad Brown runners in this field. She’s got plenty of turf pedigree, being a half-sister to stakes winner Fluffy Socks. Brown is 5 for 17 (29%, $3.72 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf sprints at Saratoga over the past 5 years, with 10 hitting the board in that sample. I like the way this filly has trained for her debut and she figures to fly under the radar with Manny Franco named to ride.

WIN: #7 Up and Down, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,5,8

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 31

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   8 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 10 - 3
Race 7:   7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 8 - 3 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 2: MADDIE’S SURPRISE (#2)

I suppose Laughter (#3) is the horse to beat off her runner-up finish at this level last time. That was her dirt debut after three turf starts to begin her career, and she certainly seemed to prefer the new surface. However, that also appeared to be a softer spot than this, as there’s a little more depth to this field. Among the new shooter is first time starter I’m Nervous Now (#6). This filly showed decent speed in a workout in company with New York-bred allowance type G Munning last week. I don’t like progeny of Animal Kingdom on dirt, but Saffie Joseph is 9 for 33 (27%, $2.82 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming dirt sprints over 5 years. Summer Snow (#8) is one of a couple of fillies dropping in class out of maiden special weight company. She did show some improvement in her return from the layoff last time, contesting the pace before fading at the quarter pole. While she’s dropping to a more appropriate class level, I’m a little concerned about the stretch-out to 7 furlongs given her lack of stamina. My top pick is Maddie’s Surprise (#2). This filly looked like she was just being given some experience in that debut run a few weeks ago. She broke towards the back of the pack and wasn’t ridden with much urgency while reserved until the stretch. She did do some running once Jose Ortiz finally asked her, but was too far back to make an impact. I don’t mind the switch to dirt, since she really has more of a pedigree for this surface. I would expect her to show more speed in her second start.

WIN: #2 Maddie's Surprise, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6,8

RACE 4: BABY BLYTHE (#2)

Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this race, sending out two of the likely favorites. Zainalarab (#3) comes in with some of the best turf speed figures, but I didn’t like the way she finished going a mile last time. She had a clear chance to seize control of the race in upper stretch and just seemed to hang. I prefer Nevisian Sunrise (#4) from that race, despite the fact that she finished just behind her stablemate. She was stymied in traffic in upper stretch and only found running room once it was too late to mount a challenge. She has more tactical speed that she showed that day, and I would expect her to get a more aggressive ride from John Velazquez. However, there are others to consider. Todd Pletcher sends out Scotish Star (#5) to try the turf for the first time. She does have some pedigree for the surface, but it’s a little odd that she’s switching surfaces after having run well on dirt in California for Richard Mandella. It’s also unusual that she’s worked exclusively on turf leading up to this. My top pick is Baby Blythe (#2). She’s coming off a poor effort going 11 furlongs earlier in the meet, but she got the wrong trip that day. She was wide throughout while far too keen trying to run off under restraint. I just don’t think the marathon distances work for her, since the slower paces tend to make her more aggressive. I like her turning back to a mile and she should settle better if Luis Saez can get her covered up early from this inside draw. The talent is there for her to be effective at this level. She just needs a trip.

WIN: #2 Baby Blythe, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 9: DETERMINEDLY (#11)

Battle of Normandy (#1) seems like the horse to beat off his solid debut score earlier in the meet. He earned a strong 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day and wasn’t a major surprise, as he cost $500k as a yearling and had trained well into the race. He also drew a good post position in this large field, which should help Kendrick Carmouche work out a trip for him. He’s an obvious contender, but I just didn’t want to settle for the favorite in this wide open race. Andthewinneris (#2) also offers some appeal off his impressive maiden-breaking score at Keeneland back in April. That was accomplished over a sprint distance, but he’s bred to stretch out and finished up that race like one that shouldn’t mind some added ground. It’s also encouraging to see Flavient Prat take back the mount in a race where he seemingly had another live option. Some may find Our Dream Rye’d (#9) appealing off his win at the distance in late July. However, he was a surprise at 21-1 that day, and is going to be a much shorter price this time. Furthermore, he benefited form a hot pace up front and worked out a perfect trip, avoiding a traffic jam in the stretch. That was not the case for also-eligible entrant Determinedly (#11), who seems likely to draw into the field with a couple of runners cross-entered at Kentucky Downs. He did save more ground than the winner, but lost momentum when ridden into traffic at midstretch. Despite having to stop and start at a critical point in the race, he gathered himself and was still finishing best of all, actually making up ground on the winner late. The other horse who encountered traffic in the stretch, Rarified Flair, came back to win off his trip. If this runner draws into the race I think he’d be a major player despite the fact that he’s the lone maiden in the field.

WIN: #11 Determinedly, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 28

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 9 - 4 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 4 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 1: FOREVER DIXIE (#10)

Among those with experience, Xigera (#2) is clearly the horse to beat. She got a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut, which would be good enough to win most maiden races at this meet. She just had the misfortune of running into a pretty talented debut winner. Nevertheless, she showed good tactical speed and ran a professional race. She’s bred to be a nice turf horse as a half-sister to stakes winner Forty Under, and Phil Bauer is in the midst of a fantastic meet. I’m not against her, but I was interested in another experienced runner who could fly under the radar. Forever Dixie (#10) began her career on dirt and didn’t run that badly. However, she did appear to take a step forward on grass last time despite achieving another fifth-place result. She had to steady off heels moving into the clubhouse turn and then proceeded to race 2 to 3-wide throughout over a course that was favoring rail runners. She still looked a little ungainly in upper stretch, but was hitting her best stride late once Leparoux finally set her down. Now Mark Casse adds blinkers to a filly who has been a little green and makes a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Casse is 23 for 129 (18%, $2.45 ROI) with maiden third time starters in turf routes over 5 years. As for firsters, instead of the Chad Brown pair, I would rather use Wand (#4) and Mademoisellejackie (#9), who have both worked well on grass.

WIN: #10 Forever Dixie, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,4,9

RACE 3: TWEAQUED (#2)

Abuse of Power (#3) is obviously the horse to beat as she seeks her second victory of the meet after winning on opening day. She was actually great value when paying $6.60 that day, as her form coming into that race was so far superior to the rest of the field. She was best that day, but I was impressed by the improved effort from runner-up Tweaqued (#2). Despite getting dismissed at 29-1 in her turf debut, she put in a strong run to get up for second while drawing well clear of the rest of the field. This filly clearly took a big step forward on the turf, yet her connections made the curious decision to switch back to dirt for her most recent start. She was claimed out of that race by Ray Handal, who does well off the claim. Yet I found a more meaningful stat for her former connections. Horses first off the claim away from Robert Ribaudo are 5 for 8 (63%, $14.56 ROI) over the past 5 years. That probably speaks to the sound condition of these horses when they leave the barn. Ray Handal has been having a strong year, and this 3-year-old filly simply has more upside than her main rival. The other runner that I would consider is Thismightbetheone (#4). She’s a cut below the top two from a form standpoint, but she did have significant trouble last time, steadied sharply on the backstretch while appearing to clip heels. She had run reasonably well in her prior start, and now gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.

WIN: #2 Tweaqued, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 3,4

RACE 5: CALL ME HARRY (#8)

I’m not that interested in either Chad Brown entrant in this allowance race. Microphone (#4) figures to attract support again after having gone off at very short prices every start to date. He was a visually impressive debut winner this winter, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment since then, failing to really step forward against winner. He should appreciate stretching out after finding a sprint too short last time, but I still think he’s vulnerable as the favorite. I have even less interest in Brown’s other runner Devil’s Outlaw (#2), who had no major excuse when putting in a dull effort last time and has never been the most reliable win candidate. I actually think the horse to beat is Shawdyshawdyshawdy (#9). This 4-year-old has had more than his fair share of bad trips during his career, but he’s actually been in strong form ever since returning from a layoff this year. He lost all chance at the start when clipping heels out of the gate two back, and last time he was closing best of all late but had to go wide to launch his rally. I like the rider switch to Flavien Prat, but he’s probably going to be a shorter price this time now that his form is a bit more exposed. I don’t see that much pace in this race, so I’m interested in Call Me Harry (#8). Perhaps this horse is just a sprinter, but I can easily make excuses for his two prior route attempts. One of those came against much tougher stakes foes in his third career start, and he got a poor ride in a driving rainstorm in his race going two turns here last summer. He didn’t run well last time, but his prior two efforts at Monmouth were decent. Now he’s claimed by Joe Sharp, who takes the blinkers off for this stretch-out, likely in an attempt to get him to settle early. I like that he’s placed ambitiously and speed is dangerous going a mile on the inner.

WIN: #8 Call Me Harry, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 9

RACE 6: NURSEKRINGLEDANCES (#2)

With the scratch of High Class, the focus in this two-year-old maiden event shifts squarely to the first time starters. I suppose Love to Shop (#9) is one that merits consideration as she goes out for Todd Pletcher. It’s tough for me to decipher which Pletcher runner is better between her and also-eligible entrant Alpha Bella (#11). I liked the latter filly’s last gate workout quite a bit, but her prior drills were less than inspiring. I was more interested in some debut runners from lower profile connections. The Great Maybe (#1) makes sense as she debuts off a solid series of workouts for Cherie Devaux. She looked pretty quick at the OBS Sale earlier this year and is by an excellent debut sire. My top pick is Nursekringledances (#2). This $7,000 yearling purchase really doesn’t have much pedigree, by disappointing sire Klimt out of a dam who was best on turf. She has produced 6 winners from 7 foals to race, but none were of particularly high quality. I just like the way this filly has been working for her debut. She obviously possesses plenty of speed, as she’s broken sharply in her gate works. One of those was actually in company with Soledad (#3) for Bill Mott, who breaks just to her outside here. To my eye, Nursekringledances was going slightly better as they easily drew well clear of a Mark Hennig trainee. Recently, she appeared to work favorably with classy older horse Street Ready. Ian Wilkes isn’t known for debut success, except when his horses actually take money. Over the past 5 years, he’s 10 for 51 (20%, $2.13 ROI) with firsters that go off at 8-1 or less in maiden special weight dirt sprints. The other horse that I want to use somewhere is Quiescent (#7). Robert Ribaudo is another trainer that isn’t known for debut success, but he appears to have a small but talented group of 2-year-olds for Marc Keller this year. This daughter of good debut sire Nyquist is one of those. Her dam was a pretty talented dirt sprinter. She’s been training well, especially in her gate works, and interestingly attracts Flavien Prat for her debut.

WIN: #2 Nursekringledances, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Quiescent, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7: SUMMER AT THE SPA (#6)

Freedomofthepress (#2) has had legitimate excuses in her last couple of starts and just feels like the horse to beat as she drops in class out of starter allowance races. She got engaged in an extremely fast pace two back and actually did well to open up in mid-stretch before getting reeled in by the closers. Then last time she had some traffic issues in the opening furlong and found herself out of position early. I would expect her to be much more forwardly placed this time with a clean break, and the slight class relief should benefit her. I have no major knocks, but just didn’t feel the need to pick her at a relatively short price. Train to Artemus (#3) has obviously improved since getting back on turf this summer for Saffie Joseph. While she’s moving up to a tougher condition claiming level, I don’t think she’s catching the toughest field and her last race certainly gives her a shot. My top pick is Summer At the Spa (#6). She ran well to win her N2L condition back in May, albeit with a great ride and trip. However, she hasn’t been nearly as fortunate since then. She had to go very wide when launching a rally in that June 26 race at this level going 7 furlongs, which seems a bit far for her these days. Then last time she was facing a tougher field and actually closed well despite encountering traffic in the stretch. She just seems like a good fit at this level and is unlikely to be that short a price off her recent results. It also feels like there could be some pace in here to set up her late run.

WIN: #6 Summer At the Spa, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,3

RACE 9: LADY ROCKET (#4)

Ce Ce (#1) comes into this Grade 1 Ballerina as the reigning champion. However, that accolade was bestowed because she won the most important race, beating Gamine when it counted in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. While she’s run well since then, she isn’t exactly a dominant force among these female sprinters, entering this race with a set of performances that don’t exactly make her a standout. I think she’s vulnerable and want to take some shots against her. Obligatory (#2) has been in fantastic form this year. She got the right pace setup in the Derby City Distaff, but she produced a fantastic stretch run to rally past the entire field. I won’t hold her recent loss to Bella Sofia against her, since she was arguably best after racing behind a slow pace. I actually think she’s the horse to beat here, but I am a little concerned about a lack of pace. My top pick is Lady Rocket (#4). Some will view her as a one-hit wonder, as that 9-length romp in the Go For Wand stands out among her running lines. However, I think she’s run better than it appears in her three starts since then. That was particularly the case in the Madison when she got involved in a wicked pace that fell apart. She was dueling that day with Kimari, who since returned to beat Bella Sofia in the Honorable Miss with a career-best performance. I won’t hold Lady Rocket’s Ruffian against her, since that has proven to be a key race, with multiple horses improving their speed figures out of it. She beat a pair of nice mares at Churchill last time, and appears to be coming into this Grade 1 test in excellent form. Brad Cox is an amazing 25 for 58 (43%, $3.22 ROI) with last-out winners in Grade 1 dirt races over the past 5 years.

WIN: #4 Lady Rocket, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 2,3

RACE 10: BE THERE (#5)

Linda Rice holds a pretty strong hand in this maiden turf sprint finale. Java Buzz (#12) was somewhat disappointing as the 6-5 favorite last time, as he proved no match for impressive winner Sosua Summer without an apparent excuse. He did have some minor trouble two back, but he just feels like a horse whose best form is exposed at this point. He’s also now drawn in the outside post position, whereas Rice’s other runner Rocket’s Red Glare (#2) has gotten a much more favorable draw inside. This colt finished behind his stablemate in that Aug. 3 race, but he was just making his career debut. Linda Rice runners tend to do better with a start under their belts, and this guy ran like one that would benefit from a race, getting away slowly before racing a bit erratically. I expect a step forward, but I also think he could be favored here with Irad Ortiz retaining he mount. My top pick is Be There (#5). I know some may find it tough to take Nick Zito runners given his recent record, but he’s sent out a couple of horses who have run just fine at this meet. The horse showed improvement in the slop last time and is supposed to be even better on the turf. He's by a turf influence in Medaglia d’Oro and his dam was a Grade 3 winner on this surface. He also moves like a grass horse, so I’m convinced he’ll fare better on the turf. He’s getting a significant rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano for this race and is likely to be a square price in this highly competitive affair. I'm also afraid of first time starter Steady On (#4), who has trained well for his debut and goes out for a trainer who can win with these types.

WIN: #5 Be There, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 2,4