TimeformUS Expert Picks with David Aragona

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 2

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   10 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 10 - 6
Race 7:   11 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 5 - 9 - 6
Race 9:   6 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 10:   9 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 11:   4 - 11 - 5 - 12
Race 12:   4 - 8 - 2 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 8

Arzak (#5) ended his 2023 campaign in great form. He upset the field in the Woodford and then ran a lot better than the result would suggest in the Breeders' Cup when done in by a wide trip. He got back on track in the Shakertown this year and then was simply second best to division leader Cogburn in the G1 Jaipur. Horses have generally come back out of that race to flatter the form, which makes his odds-on loss in the Wolf Hill last time all the more disappointing. He just looked a little flat that day, and that raises some doubts coming into this spot. He’s the most accomplished member of this field, but figures to be a very short price. Main rival Souper Quest (#6) might be the “now” horse as he looks to win his first stakes for Mark Casse. It’s not as if he hasn’t faced good horses before, finishing third behind Breeders’ Cup winner Nobals in the Da Hoss last season. He’s lightly raced and appears to just be hitting his peak coming off that allowance win last time. However, I didn’t think he ran that much better than Our Shot (#9), who figures to be a bigger price. He lost his form this spring, but didn’t get the right trip in the Elusive Quality three back. His turf form prior to that had been good, and he just narrowly lost this race last season. Big Invasion (#8) finished just ahead of him that day, launching a late season campaign that ended with a narrow defeat in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s been unable to recapture that form since returning as a 5-year-old, but he’s also had a few excuses along the way. The trip really didn’t work out for him two back in the Jaipur, as he was too keen behind horses early and then had to steady and alter course in traffic in the stretch. He rebounded last time in a race that has proven to be pretty solid. Perhaps some will jump off the bandwagon, but I think he might be rounding back into form, and we know he loves this 5 1/2 furlong distance at Saratoga.

Fair Value:
#8 BIG INVASION, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

Chad Brown sends out two of the likely favorites, who hit the wire together in a conditioned claiming race back in July. It’s Hot In Here (#4) was the winner that day after getting a very nice ride from Irad Ortiz. She sat off a hot pace set by a runaway leader, and saved ground every step of the way while making a rally up the rail. However, I would argue that stablemate Dea Matrona (#6) might have put forth the better effort in defeat. She was in a tough position, chasing two rivals who had run clear of the field on the front end, making her the leader of the main pack without any cover. She then had to make the first move into that hot pace while going wider on the far turn, and she still dug in gamely to just miss. I also thought her race two back was better than it looks, as she attempted to make a wide run around the far turn in a race dominated by a vastly superior stablemate. I’m viewing her as the horse to beat in this spot, and she is my top pick. The other horse I want to consider is Surprenant Cocca (#3), who makes her first start off the claim for Mike Maker. While Maker doesn’t have stellar statistics off the claim in general, he is 9 for 47 (19%, $2.04 ROI) off the claim with horses moving up into allowance turf routes over 5 years. This filly ran a race back in May that would make her awfully tough against a field like this. She didn’t perform at all next time at Delaware, but some horses don’t handle that turf course. She rebounded with a much better performance last time, and might have been seriously involved in the finish if she hadn’t gotten such a passive ride. Now she gets the more aggressive Luis Saez on board as Maker also applies blinkers. It was a close call for me between she and Dea Matrona, and I basically want to bet whichever of these deviates higher from my fair odds.

Fair Value:
#6 DEA MATRONA, at 5-2 or greater
#3 SURPRENANT COCCA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10

I’m hardly against likely favorite Ferocious (#2) in this Hopeful. The $1.3 million auction purchase ran to that price tag and then some on debut, delivering the kind of performance that gets racing fans dreaming about the future. He didn’t break that sharply, but quickly got himself into position, traveling strongly throughout. Yet the most impressive part of the race came when Javier Castellano pushed the button. This colt lengthened his stride in a manner you rarely see from 2-year-olds, clocking a final eighth in 11.86 seconds. There have been a couple of runbacks from the race, neither remarkable. Gustavo Delgado is 0 for 8 with last-out debut winners making their second starts over 5 years, but I’m not getting overly concerned with stats. This is a pretty strong Hopeful field that includes other impressive debut winners, but Ferocious gives off the vibe of something special. There does appear to be ample early speed in this race, and I have respect for Studlydoright (#6), who might get unfairly dismissed despite being the most accomplished runner in this field. While he did earn a stakes victory in the Tremont, that race hasn’t proven to be the strongest over time, and I thought he was supposed to get the job done last time in the Sanford, though he was hitting his best stride late. Like Ferocious, he’s got this massive stride that suggests he should prefer added ground. I expect him to be running on late and I want to use him in exactas and trifectas, but I wonder if a victory might be just out of reach. Both Chad Brown runners look like they could be the main rivals to the favorite. Chancer McPatrick (#8) will take more money off his eye-catching last-to-first debut victory. He had to steady a bit early in that race while reacting to kickback, but was absolutely flying home once steered into the clear. This horse appears to have talent, but I am somewhat bothered by the fact that a few runbacks from that race have been disappointing. It does appear to be a day where the dirt sprints as a group may have been tricky for figuermakers. I prefer Chad’s other horse Incentive Pay (#9). He didn’t create quite as much buzz after his debut victory earlier in the meet, which earned a more modest 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The fourth-place finisher Filoso did come back to win going a mile this week, and runner-up Dapper Moon came back to win impressively against a strong field on Saturday. Incentive Pay also didn’t have a perfect trip in victory, as he got briefly shuffled in traffic approaching the half-mile pole before making a sustained rally inside. He’s continued to train well out of the debut, and he has some dam’s side pedigree to stretch out, with the dam being a half-sister to dirt route stakes winner Mo Cuishle. He, of course, isn't as likely to win as Ferocious, but he is going to be a more playable price, and 2-year-olds can get a lot faster between their first and second starts.

Fair Value:
#9 INCENTIVE PAY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 11

The penultimate race of this 2024 Saratoga season is one of the most intriguing affairs of the entire meet. There is a pretty solid favorite in Child of the Moon (#11), who made a favorable impression in her U.S. debut for Chad Brown. She had shown some hints of talent overseas, and appeared to take a step forward in her stateside debut last time. That race featured a very slow early pace, and she was closing best of all late to just miss. However, now she’s landing in a deeper field and was done no favors by drawing so far outside. I do prefer her to Brown’s other entrant Venencia (#8), who was plagued by gate issues in both starts for the barn last season. I’m not convinced about her overall talent, and she likely needs a pace collapse to be effective. There is ample speed in here, as indicated by the fast pace designation on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. That could work against one of several horses trying the turf for the first time. Sugar Hi (#2) has been working very well ahead of her grass debut, including a couple of impressive drills over the Oklahoma turf course. However, she has to prove she can get this added distance in a race featuring other speed. Another first time turfer in a similar situation is Mystifying (#5), but I have a little more faith in her adapting to new tactics. This daughter of Curlin has plenty of Phipps turf pedigree in her female family, and has also worked well on the surface ahead of this start. Shug McGaughey also has strong statistics coming off layoffs in turf routes. Given all the speed signed on, I’m expecting an honest pace setup for the closers. The late runner who interests me most is Golden Rocket (#4), who makes her second start off a layoff for new trainer Charlton Baker. She’s not a natural turf sprinter, but she actually ran pretty well cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs off the layoff last time in her first start for the new barn. She traveled well into the race and briefly looked like a winner in upper stretch before flattening out late. She should benefit from getting that race under her belt as she now stretches back out to her preferred route distance. She’s drawn well and should work out a ground-saving trip under Jose Lezcano. With two Chad Brown runners and a few appealing surface switchers in the mix, she seems like the kind of horse who could get a little forgotten on the tote board.

Fair Value:
#4 GOLDEN ROCKET, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 1

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 9 - 12 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 4:   4 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 12 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   1 - 9 - 11 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 10 - 8 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 1A - 2
Race 11:   7 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 12:   6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 13:   2 - 9 - 12 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 4

I’m not thrilled with the likely favorites in this $25k conditioned claimer. Waitlist (#7) is arguably the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph. It’s been unwise to dismiss anything the barn has sent out at this meet, but the drop in class off the claim for $50k is mildly concerning. He did earn his best TimeformUS Speed Figure on dirt three back, but that was an off the turf race in the slop. It’s unclear if he’s a true fast track dirt horse, and his lack of early speed makes him unappealing at a short price. I also have concerns about the dropdown for Cloud Forest (#5). This gelding has form that would make him competitive in starter allowance races, but he’s now dropping below the level for which he was claimed in his return from a layoff. Ray Handal is in the midst of a strong meet, but I have reservations. Smile Mon (#9) drops down just 3 starts after getting claimed for $50k by Rob Atras. He obviously isn’t the same horse that was finishing third behind Highland Falls last year, but he did run a race two back that would make him competitive here. I’m not going to be too hard on him for his last result, since there were multiple disappointments in that Aug. 17 affair, and he was never in good position after failing to make the lead. At a much bigger price, my top pick is Unclecharliesgift (#4). This gelding strikes me as one that could really benefit from a stretch-out in distance. He has the frame of a horse who should want to go longer, and he’s a half-brother to dirt route winner Scarred. Nick Zito has given him that old school pattern of two sprints off a layoff before a stretch-out, and he’s drawn well as a horse who wants to lug in at times. He’s been facing slightly weaker competition at the same level, but I think this race looks tougher than it actually is given all of the untrustworthy dropdowns.

Fair Value:
#4 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT, at 8-1 or greater
#9 SMILE MON, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5

This $16k claimer has to be one of the most confusing races of the weekend. There’s no clear favorite, and it’s hard to trust any of the runners to hold their form. Rob Falcone appears to have a pretty strong hand, sending out two contenders. Market Alert (#3) has the better overall form of the two, but he’s coming off a poor effort last time at the $25k level. However, I thought he didn’t get a great trip, as he was shuffled back into the turn and just never in great position. He’s better than that, and would be tough if rebounding to any of his prior races. Critical Threat (#5) is actually a claim back by Falcone, who lost him when he won here for $12,500 on July 19. However, now he’s claiming him back with Flying P as the owner, and that stable has been overperforming throughout the meet. He’s best when he can contest the pace, and the Pace Projector indicates that he’s the quickest of them all early. Nolo Contesto (#12) doesn’t win very often, but his recent dirt form makes him a major player at this level. He ran well against $25k claiming competition two back, chasing home Amundson, who would be a prohibitive favorite against a field like this. A turf experiment last time didn’t work out, but he’s back at his preferred 7-furlong distance and should have a good chance to get forward breaking from the outside. My top pick is Bourbon Calling (#4), who is seeking to get back on track after losing his best form in recent starts. He was once capable of running races that would crush a field like this, but he went in the wrong direction last winter, and only briefly recovered hints of his prior ability this spring before going the wrong way again. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Parx-based Ernesto Padilla-Preciado, who posts some impressive statistics at his home track. The barn does well of the claim generally, and is 6 for 12 (50%, $6.33 ROI) first off the claim going from routes to sprints on dirt over 5 years. Furthermore, this gelding’s last race isn’t as bad as it looks since he was wide against a rail bias. He’s won going this distance in the past, and should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#4 BOURBON CALLING, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

I don’t trust dropdown Adventurous Spirit (#11), who makes his first start for a tag after a few decent efforts at the maiden special weight level. He looks like a standout in this field at first glance, but I’m just not quite convinced about his overall ability. He’s gotten good trips in a few races and just hasn’t been able to produce the necessary finish to get the job done. He’s also been off for 3 months since he was a vet scratch earlier in the meet and shows a very spotty worktab for his return, which is highly uncharacteristic of the Pletcher barn. I want alternatives. My top pick is Guile (#1), who makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. While I’m a fan of his prior connections, there’s no denying that this is an upgrade to a barn that just wins many more races, as well as a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz. I didn’t love his lone turf effort, but he got a wide trip that day and was always too far back. He did show some more early interest on dirt last time, so it appears that he was at least in good form prior to the claim. He’s bred to be a turf horse, and I think he deserves another chance on this surface. The other horse that I want to use is Get It to Matthew (#9), who tries this surface for the first time. I’m not totally convinced about this new gelding’s overall ability, but I did think he ran better than it looks on debut when on the wrong part of the racetrack. He obviously needed his return from a layoff in June, and he showed better early speed last time. I like progeny of Mendelssohn getting to the turf, and there is some grass pedigree on the dam’s side. Ray Handal doesn’t have particularly strong numbers making this move, but this one will be a price.

Fair Value:
#1 GUILE, at 4-1 or greater
#9 GET IT TO MATTHEW, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 10

This turf sprint came up very strong for a second-level New York-bred allowance race. A few of the most interesting contenders are actually in for the optional $45k claiming tag, including ML favorite Run Curtis Run (#2), who drops out of tougher open company allowance races. If he runs back to his effort over this course three back he’s going to beat this field. However, I really haven’t been thrilled his last couple of races. Perhaps the drop will get back to his better form, but it’s never like he’s been the most reliable win candidate. Both halves of the entry are also in for the tag, and they each have their merits. Scuttlebuzz (#1) was obviously a horse that would have been better to have last time when he paid $34 to win turning back to a turf sprint. Perhaps Rudy Rodriguez just has him back in better form, because he has races from a couple years ago that would beat these. Maxwell Esquire (#1A) is the other half of the entry, and it’s kind of amazing that Rudy Rodriguez hasn’t run this horse in a turf sprint in any of his last 7 starts. He’s always been best over this kind of configuration, and Rudy has actually gotten him into better form going longer lately. The other horse with superior turf sprint form is Seaver (#4). It bothers me a little bit that he’s run his best races at Gulfstream, but I think he ran better than it appears in his last start off the layoff. That stakes was upset by a big price, but there were some very good horses in there, and Seaver was running on well at the end despite getting rated off a slow pace. My concern wit this spot is that there doesn’t appear to be much true speed in this field. I think that’s going to make Boss Tweed (#3) dangerous at a price. I’ve also always wanted to see this horse on the turf. Laoban is just a 10% turf sprint sire, but there is real turf pedigree on the dam’s side. The dam’s only full-sister is Me and the Sea G T, who was a stakes winner sprinting on turf up in Canada. Gary Contessa has entered this horse for turf at least a couple of times in the past. He has action that suggests he should take to turf, and he also has the profile of a horse who should really benefit from the slight cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs.

Fair Value:
#3 BOSS TWEED, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 11

Running Bee (#5) is probably the horse to beat as he turns back in distance. Perhaps he just didn’t want to go the 1 3/8 miles in the United Nations, as he never really picked up the pace that day after tracking the leaders early. His prior form puts him squarely in the mix. He dead heated with today’s rival Fort Washington (#1) at Monmouth two back, and arguably ran the better race after having to search for room in the stretch. His tactical speed usually ensures that he works out a good trip, and he really doesn’t need to improve much at all to beat this field. Fort Washington also disappointed in the United Nations, but his overall form makes him unreliable. This is also a situation where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners, and that works against a deep closer. I gave strong consideration to Pioneering Spirit (#4), who won this race last year but hasn’t had nearly as much success since returning for the 2024 season. He benefited from the Lure getting rained off the turf two back, picking up second in a short field on dirt. He then ran better than most might have expected in the G1 Sword Dancer, just barely failing to pick up the superior Silver Knott for third on the wire. I don’t mind him cutting back in distance, and he did make the same move last year en route to winning this race at a square price. Cherie DeVaux has two in this field, but I don’t trust Rebel Red (#3) to reproduce his last race, since it’s been reported that he lost an eye in a stall accident since then. My top pick is DeVaux’s more accomplished runner Taking Candy (#7). He came to hand winning that allowance at Saratoga a year ago before running a respectable second to the talented Carl Spackler in the Saranac. He missed a lot of time thereafter, but he returned seemingly in the best form of his career in his victory earlier at the meet. He got a decent trip stalking a fast pace but did well to hold off a host of late challenges in victory. A repeat of that 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure would probably put him in the winner’s circle here. It's reasonable to expect some improvement second off the layoff, and he continues to train well.

Fair Value:
#7 TAKING CANDY, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 12

Arthur’s Ride (#7) announced his presence as a major force in the older dirt division when winning the Grade 1 Whitney so decisively in early August. He had tipped his hand at being capable of such a performance in his prior start, where he defeated overmatched allowance foes by nearly 13 lengths. He improved on that effort last time, as Junior Alvarado gunned him out of the gate to set a much faster pace. Those enterprising tactics worked, as he opened up an insurmountable lead by the time the field hit mid-stretch. His paired up TimeformUS Speed Figures of 126 and 122 for those efforts are the two best numbers in the field this year. He likely won’t have to run as fast on the front end this time, which should make him even more formidable. He’s just going to be a very short price now that his form is totally exposed. Disarm (#4) finished well behind Arthur’s Ride on Whitney day, but that was a step in the right direction for a horse looking to cycle back to his peak 3-year-old form. He should appreciate stretching back out to this distance, as he did run a career-best race at this configuration in last year’s Travers. There are others in this field who will appreciate the 10-furlong distance. One of those is Tapit Trice (#1). He was considered a disappointment by the end of his 3-year-old season even though he ran pretty well in the Belmont and Travers, the latter with the addition of blinkers. Since that equipment has been added, he’s gotten better trips early in his races, including last time at Monmouth when he won so impressively from just off the pace. The extra furlong figures to suit him, but he does now have to overcome the rail draw as a horse who doesn’t always break that alertly. I prefer Highland Falls (#6), who finished just behind Tapit Trice when they met in the Monmouth Cup. The margin was over 5 lengths at the wire, but I’m pretty confident the actual gap in ability between these two is much narrower. Highland Falls just got the wrong trip at every stage of the race. He broke on top and had an opportunity to control the pace, but his rider made a tactical error deciding to rein him in behind horses. From there he got caught in traffic, having to alter course a couple of times before finding a clear path too late. His prior form makes him competitive here, and I even think he ran better than it looks in his prior attempt at the distance in the Santa Anita Handicap. He gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat for this race and will finally be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#6 HIGHLAND FALLS, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, August 31

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 4 - 3 - 9
Race 2:   8 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 9 - 8
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 8 - 9
Race 5:   8 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 3 - 9
Race 10:   7 - 3 - 9 - 1
Race 11:   1 - 11 - 8 - 7
Race 12:   1 - 4 - 7 - 9
Race 13:   15 - 3 - 16 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1 — #7 EXECUTIVE ORDER, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4 — #5 THEREGOESMYMIRACLE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5 — #8 PRO OXIDANT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6 — #3 MOONLIGHT PROMISES, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7 — #3 BEST IMPRESSION, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8 — #2 GUNS LOADED, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9 — #6 BARRAGE, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 11 — #1 IMMERSIVE, at 5-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, August 30

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 8 - 7 - 9
Race 2:   8 - 1 - 2 - 9
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   7 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 9 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   10 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   10 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 10:   11 - 4 - 8 - 12
Race 11:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 12:   5 - 2 - 7 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

The only filly entered against the boys, Scythian (#1), might be the horse to beat in this state-bred maiden. The connections were probably just giving this filly a race on the dirt for experience first time out, since her pedigree is geared much more towards grass. Tiz the Law is emerging as an exciting new turf sire in his first crop, posting some impressive early numbers with his grass starters. The dam has also produced 3 turf winners, and I really liked this filly’s breeze over the turf on August 16. She will have to beat a horse with turf experience in Iron Max (#2), who ran well on debut after breaking slowly, and then confirmed that he wants more ground when performing as well as he did in a dirt race just 8 days later. He’s meant to be a turf router and finally gets a chance to do that. I just wonder if he could get a little overrated after riding a rail bias last time. Real Savvy (#9) doesn’t have much pedigree for turf, but he appeared to work well over it on Aug. 23. He’s one who was against that strong rail bias on Aug. 1, so he’s probably better than he looks on paper. If I’m trying a horse going to the turf for the first time, I want a bigger price. Shakeitforthebird (#8) interests me switching to grass. There isn’t much dam’s side production that suggests turf, but he is by Big Brown out of a Freud mare, and that should be enough to make a turf horse. I think he just moves like one who is going to transfer to grass, just gliding over the ground with fluid strides. He had worked better in the morning than he performed in the afternoon on debut, which can often be indicative of horses who need a surface switch. These connections will fly under the radar, and I expect a step forward.

Fair Value:
#8 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 3

Among the likely short prices, I view Cut the Cord (#6) as the clear horse to beat. This horse hasn’t won going the distance, but he’s run very well in both prior attempts at the 9 furlongs. He’s put forth some of his best efforts at Saratoga in the past, and he ran a lot better than it looks in his most recent on Aug. 1. That day featured an extreme rail bias and he actually did well to close for fourth despite never racing inside. The pace was coming apart late, but he still put in a solid effort. I think he’s going to be tough in this spot, but he is a closer who can be somewhat pace dependent. However, that’s also true of a couple of his main rivals. Mighty Atlas (#4) probably has more tactical speed than his recent running lines would suggest, but I don’t love him stretching out around two turns, and his last race was a poor effort. Neural Network (#3) has upside second off the layoff, but he seems ripe to get overbet going out ofr a popular barn. My top pick is Leftembehind (#5). He's a bit of a “last time” horse when he won at 10-1 against a weaker field. Yet he conquered this distance quite convincingly, overcoming an outside trip in a rail dominated race to win going away. His 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up very favorably against the favorites, and he might get somewhat overlooked again as he steps up in class. He had excuses for his races prior to that recent victory, racing against a bias on June 7 and getting a wide trip in May.

Fair Value:
#5 LEFTEMBEHIND, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

The Grade 3 Saranac may have only attracted 6 entrants, but it’s still a difficult handicapping puzzle. Brad Cox sends out a pair of colts with solid credentials. West Hollywood (#1) seems like the more trustworthy of the two, as he exits a victory over this surface and distance earlier in the meet. He’s been improving with each U.S. start, and his recent 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure at this venue arguably makes him the horse to beat. Cox’s other runner Take Me To Church (#3) is more of a wild card as he makes his U.S. debut. He kept good company overseas, most recently competing in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas. Yet he had little to offer in the final stages of that race after setting the pace. He wanted to be forwardly placed overseas, and that style could be an issue for him here with other speed signed on. The Big Torpedo (#5) steps up in class after dominating New York-breds in his last couple of starts. He’s earned the chance to try this kind of race and his speed figures suggest he can be competitive. I just wonder if he’ll be able to relax and finish as he stretches out to the longest distance he’s ever attempted. The Process (#6) is one alternative to consider as he also steps up in class after controlling a weaker group at Colonial last time. I don’t care so much about that effort, but his prior turf losses are better performances than they appear. He moved early into a fast pace two back, and got a ridiculous 4 to 5-wide trip when he first tied turf at Gulfstream last winter. He’s better than he looks on paper. My top pick is Yo Daddy (#4). There appears to be some pace in this small field, and this colt has proven he can finish strongly when the trip works out. Surface is the major question for him, since his last two races have come on dirt, resulting in career-best speed figures. The most recent of those was a dazzling runaway victory for which he was assigned a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest number in this field. It might appear as if he’s simply better on dirt, but he got tough trips in both turf starts after the claim by Linda Rice and still performed well. He looks ready for this surface switch in his current form, and he figures to get somewhat dismissed in the wagering.

Fair Value:
#4 YO DADDY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10

The scratch of standout favorite Chileno is hardly unexpected, but the total of 3 scratches in the main body of this field allows both AE runners to draw in, which changes the complexion of this race. Recent Flying P acquisition Improbable Journey (#12) may now inherit the favorite's role as he makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. He does own some of the best speed figures in this field, but I have little faith in his ability to get this one-mile distance, especially breaking from the far outside post. At first I wanted to dismiss likely second choice Emirates Road (#4), but this horse actually makes a lot of sense. He kept some strong company on dirt earlier in his career, and his last dirt race in November at Churchill Downs was actually pretty good, as he checked in fourth behind graded stakes performer Highland Falls. They’ve concentrated on turf since then, but I don’t mind him getting back on dirt here. He’s lacked speed for much of his career, but he actually was much more forward than it would appear last time in first start off the claim for Brad Cox. He just got shuffled back into the clubhouse turn when spun wide. Between the two AE runners, I actually prefer Eirik Ridge (#11) at a much bigger price, and he becomes my top pick after the late scratch of Watasha. He was merely picking up pieces last time after dropping too far back in the early stages, but he has prior races that make him competitive here. He also didn't get the best rides or trips in a few of his starts at Finger Lakes and might be in better form than it appears. Most importantly, he's making his first start off the claim for a barn that has strong statistics with this move.

Fair Value:
#11 EIRIK RIDGE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 11

I didn’t make her the favorite, but the horse I think about it, Candi Girl (#5) is probably the horse to beat in this spot and seems likely to dip lower than her 9-2 ML. I think that support is deserved, since she has actually run well in both prior turf starts, winning a maiden event at Ellis before setting an extremely fast pace in a stakes at Kentucky Downs last fall. Those races got slower speed figures, but now she’s older and has already shown she’s capable of running faster with maturity racing on synthetic. She got in a prep last time at Presque Isle, and was very game in defeat. She’s dropping to a realistic spot and I view her as the most likely winner. I’m obviously afraid of a horse like Hurricane Debbie (#2), who makes her first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph, who has been dangerous with everything he sends out at this meet. She was wide last time when chasing home the more talented In Our Time, but I just wonder if she’s heading in the wrong direction after hitting her peak form last year. Shaman Princess (#3) is one of two Rudy Rodriguez trainees in this field, and she obviously finished much farther back in that Aug. 4 race at this level. However, she had a right to need that start coming back off a layoff, and she really lost all chance when she broke a step slowly and was unable to make the lead. This filly is a quintessential need the lead type who needs to get to the front to have any chance. There doesn’t appear to be that much true speed in this field, so I think she’s going to get a more aggressive ride from Romero Maragh. Rudy Rodriguez actually has very strong statistics second off a layoff of 180 days or more. He is 12 for 38 (32%, $2.79 ROI) with that move in sprints over 5 years, and 2 for 5 in turf sprints in that sample. Her best turf races from last season give her a chance and she figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#3 SHAMAN PRINCESS, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 12

All of the short prices in this state-bred maiden special weight have some questions to answer. Hard Par (#7) might be considered the horse to beat off the strength of his last two races. He got off to a poor start two back and did well to close for third in a fast race for the level. Then last time he had significant trouble heading into the clubhouse turn before running on well for third again. He’s just had more chances than some others, and you have to trust him to work out a better trip as a horse without much early speed. I’m a little more interested in New York Scrappy (#2), who ran very well in his only turf start, which was a sprint. He got off to a poor start and did well to make a strong late rally for third, just flattening out a bit in the late stages. He’s since disappointed at short prices on dirt, but I think he’s much more of a turf horse. I don’t mind him going the mile, and he should sit a good trip stalking likely speed Kid Kreesa. My top pick is a horse who actually finished just behind New York Scrappy in that June 22 turf event. Charles J (#5) also didn’t get off to the best start, then was outrun, and had to angle out around a wall of horses in mid-stretch before finishing well. I think 6 furlongs is just too short for him, and he didn’t get the right trip when he tried longer two back at Saratoga. That day he was used to contest an honest pace from the far outside post position. I think he can work out a better trip this time as he gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat. I certainly don’t mind that he gets Lasix, and the blinkers coming off should also help.

Fair Value:
#5 CHARLES J, at 5-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 29

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   3 - 10 - 1A - 8
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 10 - 2
Race 10:   9 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 11:   2 - 5 - 3 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 3

Evaluation (#1) will be tough to beat if she repeats her debut speed figure, but I have some reservations about this likely favorite. August 2 was a day that featured a rail bias, though not quite as strong a bias as was observed the prior day. Still, this filly rode the rail for almost her entire trip before angling outside of Geopolitics to rally in the stretch. While that runner-up did come back to win early on Travers day, she had been awfully fainthearted through her first 5 starts, so I don’t want to give this Chad Brown runner too much credit for running her down. Furthermore, Brown is just 10 for 61 (16%, $0.77 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts on dirt over 5 years, and 6 for 30 ($0.92 ROI) in allowance races within that sample. There are three alternatives to consider, though two of them have major questions to answer. Nolita (#5) returns from a layoff needing to find some improvement. She showed potential last season, but I wasn’t thrilled with her maiden victory last time. Sweet Anniversary (#7) earned a very fast TimeformUS Speed Figure on debut, but I wasn’t nearly as impressed by her allowance win last time, and I wonder about her overall quality. My top pick is Cruise to Catalina (#2). She’s another one who had the track profile in her favor when she won first time out, but she backed up that performance in her second start. I was actually more encouraged by that second-place finish to the classy Dolomite last time. She showed a new dimension rating off the pace and was finishing well when spun to the outside in the stretch. Notably Junior Alvarado stays here rather than going to back to Nolita. I also think a little added ground will benefit a filly who is bred to go much farther than this.

Fair Value:
#2 CRUISE TO CATALINA, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 5

It’s obvious that Shesalittle Edgy (#8) is the horse to beat as she attempts to win two in a row at this $25k claiming level. Her claimed last time was voided by the vet, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. She’s placed to win once again, and is drawn well towards the outside after getting unlucky with some inside post positions earlier this year. I just worry that there appears to be plenty of speed in this race. Horses like Golden Moonlight (#2), It Takes Heart (#4), Tosconova Beauty (#5), and even Jackson’s Dixie (#9) all do their best running towards the front, so it figures to be a contested pace. Among that group I’d be most interested in Tosconova Beauty, who ran pretty well against the favorite on July 28 going a distance that may be too far for her. This is the right level, and 6 furlongs is an ideal distance, but she has to work out a trip. There are two closers to consider. The more obvious of those is Malibu Moonshine (#6), who gets needed class relief after going off form against tougher allowance foes. The drop is pretty significant, but her speed figures suggest this just where she belongs. The barn has been cold all year, but she does pick up Dylan Davis. My top pick is Hazardous Humor (#1). The major negative with her is also the barn, since Michael Gorham rarely wins at NYRA. However, this filly did run reasonably well on the circuit in a couple of starts for Ray Handal earlier this year. Since then she was faced some tougher fields out of town, and didn’t run that badly at Delaware two back. I won’t be too hard on her for the last race, since it was a muddy track that she didn’t seem to handle. She’s going to get pace here, and she’s run effectively as a closing sprinter in the past.

Fair Value:
#1 HAZARDOUS HUMOR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

Five runners in this field exit the July 27 maiden race won by Chancer McPatrick. T Kraft (#9) achieved the best result among that group, finishing second after setting a fast pace. However, I’m not totally sold on him stretching out in distance considering his pedigree and running style. Third-place finisher Noble Confessor (#8) is more convincing as a son of Quality Road from the family of second dam Sweet N Discreet, who has produced some talented routers on turf and dirt. Todd Pletcher does pretty well with second time starters generally, and this colt figures to be forward early in a race that doesn’t appear to feature an abundance of early speed. I prefer him to the other Pletcher trainee in this field. Ken McPeek sends out Spurgeon (#4), who switches surfaces after debuting going long on turf. This colt has a pedigree that can go either way, and he ran better than it looks after racing wide all the way first time out. However, the horses that I want to bet are actually those who finished farther back in that Chancer McPatrick maiden race. American Promise (#1) broke slowly and tried to progress a bit down the backstretch before getting mildly steadied around the far turn. He angled out in the lane and stayed on at one pace, looking like a horse that would appreciate more ground. He’s a half-sister to multiple dirt route stakes winner Hoosier Philly, so distance shouldn’t be an issue. D. Wayne Lukas runners tend to improve with a start. My top pick is Tharhom (#5). He finished just behind American Promise last time, but got a very conservative ride from Jose Ortiz. He broke about a length slow and lacked speed down the backstretch, was mildly steadied behind horses on the turn, and then was gingerly handled through the lane. That felt like it was just a test spin for a horse who had worked better than that prior to the debut. Sire Global Campaign was a Grade 1 Woodward winner going 1 1/4 miles, so he’s bred to get more ground. I’m expecting improvement at what should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#5 THARHOM, at 7-1 or greater
#1 AMERICAN PROMISE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

Among those with turf form, Vintage Vino (#4) probably ran the best last race, but that was going 1 1/2 miles. He got rained off the turf attempting to get in a marathon race last week, and I’m skeptical about his ability to run as well turning back. I have more trust in Inherent Promise (#9), who was never a threat to winner Clever Mischief last time but nevertheless closed well for second into a moderate pace. He's run well in all of his starts for trainer Lisa Lewis, and may not be such a strong favorite given all the chances he's had. A horse that I wouold upgrade after scratches is Ciao Chuck (#5). The withdrawal of two potential speeds could leave him as the pacesetter in a race lacking confirmed frontrunners. He ran better than it looks two back when fanned very wide into the clubhouse turn, and his debut effort makes him competitive. My top pick is Act of Mutiny (#8), who returns from a layoff for Shug McGaughey. Over the past 5 years, Shug is 18 for 64 (28%, $2.72 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs in turf routes, and 8 for 27 (30%, $3.25 ROI) with maidens within that sample. He ran a solid 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure when finishing second at this level as a 2-year-old, and he figures to be competitive here with any routine improvement. Some may fault him for his poor effort at Gulfstream last time, but he may not have loved the synthetic surface, and he also got shuffled back to the quarter pole, never in position to make a run. I expect him to rebound off the layoff, and he appears to be working well.

Fair Value:
#8 ACT OF MUTINY, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9

This first-level allowance for New York-breds is pretty wide open since there’s no clear standout on form or speed figures. Bob John Ray (#10) was the beaten favorite in that July 31 race. Perhaps he just failed to handle a sloppy track, as he never seemed to travel well. I also wonder if his wide trip worked against him going a distance that may be a touch far for him. I expect him to run better turning back to a mile and getting back on a fast track. He just might not be as big a price as he really should be due to the connections. I wonder if Merlin’s Moment (#4) can rebound here after putting forth a disappointing effort in the New York Derby last time. He was never seriously involved, but that was a slow pace that worked against him. He had run better at this level two back when cut off in midstretch. He wasn’t winning that race, but the margin of defeat was exaggerated. He’s another who might like going a bit shorter. My top pick is debut winner Noonzio (#8). This colt wasn’t beating the strongest field on debut, but I liked what I saw from him. He made an early move into a pretty fast pace, collaring the leader Sorority Prank and putting that one away while drawing off to a convincing score. The entire field was slowing down late, but I liked the way he maintained length to his strides through the wire over a demanding surface, suggesting that he should take to this added distance. His tactical speed also figures to play well here, as the Pace Projector indicates he’s quick enough to get forward from his outside draw. Michelle Giangiulio hasn’t yet sent out a second-time starting debut winner in her training career, but she has compiled a 3 for 5 record with all second-time starters over 5 years, with all 5 hitting the board and a $6.88 ROI.

Fair Value:
#8 NOONZIO, 5-2 or greater

RACE 10

I wanted to look past some of the expected short prices in this With Anticipation. Without Caution (#2) figures to vie for favoritism after winning his debut so professionally back in July. I just wonder how much he can improve on that performance, since he got such a good trip. He’s definitely one to use, but this is a tougher spot. Then you have the two European shippers. Zulu Kingdom (#7) has been training in this country all summer since getting privately purchased and transferred to Chad Brown. Yet Brown is just 3 for 28 (11%, $0.69 ROI) with foreign shippers in stakes over 5 years, and 0 for 1 with 2-year-olds in that sample. Cavallo Bay (#8) is obviously dangerous for Charlie Appleby, already having notched two wins in his career. I’m just not sure if he was beating much in those races overseas, and he has to prove he can get the distance. The same is true for Test Score (#3), who stretches out following an encouraging sprint debut for Graham Motion. He's bred to go longer and has plenty of upside. My top pick is Tenacious Leader (#9), who makes his turf debut after a couple of dirt races. He took plenty of money on debut, but was always outrun, wanting no part of that sprint distance. He was much more engaged in his second start, running up into a stalking position before pulling clear with authority late. He earned a strong 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but was entered for turf that day, and Pletcher still apparently wants to get him on this surface. In a small sample, Pletcher is 6:2-2-0 ($4.73 ROI) with 2-year-olds trying turf for the first time in stakes. Not This Time is a 16% turf route sire, and the dam is a half-sister to dirt route graded stakes winner War Story and Land Over Sea, as well as turf route winner Draw Two. That recent bullet drill was in company with older stakes horse Talk of the Nation. I think he’ll have more to offer on grass.

Fair Value:
#9 TENACIOUS LEADER, at 7-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 28

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 1A - 7
Race 5:   10 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 9 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 4 - 10 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 3

I’m mildly against both likely favorites in this state-bred maiden event. Get a Job (#5) will attract support as he faces New York-bred company for the first time after a sprint debut at Horseshoe Indy. I just have trouble warming up to a horse who got run down by former 0 for 33 maiden Accident, who finally earned that first victory in his 34th attempt. It’s not exactly clear that more ground suits him, as I prefer the progeny of Good Samaritan going shorter. The other horse who figures to take money is Big Ego (#3), but I really don’t like the way this gelding finishes off his races. Linda Rice had tried to enter him for a tag a couple of times earlier in the meet, and he was a vet scratch on one of those occasions. His last race was pretty poor, especially considering the speed-biased nature of that June 9 track. I believe he wants the turf, as his pedigree would suggest. First time starter Baricci (#6) is an intriguing new option to consider for H. James Bond, who has a decent record of 85:6-11-7 ($3.35 ROI) with all first time starters over 5 years, including many prices in that sample. It’s tough to win going long on debut, but his colt has trained well. The wo horses who interest me most both come from the Charlie Baker barn. Executive Move (#7) is a little more exposed following his third-place finish at this level last time. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs really seemed to work for him, as he was finishing well over a tiring track. Now he’s second off a layoff going a distance that should suit him. My top pick is Baker’s other entrant Stormy’s Dreaming (#2). He has to prove he can go this far, but Always Dreaming is much more of a route influence, getting 16% route winners versus 11% sprint winners across all surfaces, including 17% of his dirt route starters. This colt’s dam earned her only victory going a mile on dirt, and she’s produced foals who primarily excelled in dirt routes, including stakes winner Verdant Pastures. The dam is also a half-sister to some very good stakes-quality routers, including Wildcat’s Smile and Johannesburg Smile.

Fair Value:
#2 STORMY'S DREAMING, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

I want to monitor potential scratches in this $32k claiming affair, since it feels like the kind of race that could have some defections. As the field stands, there is a ton of speed signed on, and it’s no surprise the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. That could especially work against horses like Cees Get Degrees (#2), Poppy’s Pride (#9), and Kingdom (#10), who all need to be forward to have their best chances. Two of those figures to be among the shorter prices in here, which sends me shopping for better value. Among those likely to take money, I find the entry most appealing since both halves can win. I probably prefer Cold As Hell (#1A), who ran well at a slightly lower level last time and now makes his first start off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci. However, his price will get dragged down by the entrymate, who is also sort of obvious as a likely closer on the class drop. Looking beyond that pair, there are two individual betting interests that intrigue me. One of those is Dangerous Ride (#4), who is seeking to get back on track in his second start off the claim for Rob Atras. I thought he was facing a slightly tougher field last time and he didn’t run that badly after riding the rail into the lane and just tiring late of a sloppy track that he may not prefer. There were a couple of runbacks from that race that flatter the form, including next-out winner Nelson Avenue. Dangerous Ride now (hopefully) gets his first chance in a fast track dirt sprint since he was at Gulfstream over the winter. Those efforts put him squarely in the mix, and he has been effective racing from mid-pack in the past. My top pick is Giroovin (#6), who returns from a layoff for Rob Falcone. Like so many runners from this barn, this colt just looks spotted to win. He was claimed for $25k at this meet last year, and the connections had some success with him before he went to the sidelines last winter. It’s taken him a while to get back, and he's returning in a realistic spot. Falcone doesn’t have the greatest stats off layoffs, but I like the way he’s been working. He should benefit from the expected pace scenario and clearly fits at the class level.

Fair Value:
#6 GIROOVIN, at 6-1 or greater
#4 DANGEROUS RIDE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

Without Thankfully in the field, Miss C Banker (#7) could go favored, but I’m against her after she finished second in a slow race for the level last time. She broke sharply in a race where few were up to the task of challenging her, but this feels like a tougher spot. Among the first time starters. I find Honor Her (#10) mildly intriguing. This barn hasn’t yet won with a first time starters, but they have sent out 3 to hit the board from 9 starters in a sample where none went off shorter than 14-1. The 10 1/5 Fasig-Tipton Timonium work was solid enough, and sire Curlin’s Honor was strictly a turf horse, so she should handle the surface. The workouts indicate she can run a little, and the price should be generous. My top pick is My Vanilla (#3), who I’ve been waiting to see on turf. Her debut is a better effort than it appears, as she made a premature move after breaking a bit slowly, ranging up outside on the turn before flattening out in the lane. She didn’t show any improvement second time out, but I just don’t think she cared for that sloppy surface. She’s bred to be a turf horse, by 13% turf sprint sire Mitole out of a dam who was a stakes winner on turf. The dam has also produced two turf winners, both of which won sprinting. James Ryerson seems to be getting more serious for this start, as he adds blinkers and switches to Dylan Davis.

Fair Value:
#3 MY VANILLA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7

Athena Beach (#5) figures to take money off her runner-up finish to Tricky Temper earlier this month. She was obviously flattered when that rival came back to win the Union Avenue with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, Tricky Temper was racing outside on Aug. 2, a day that featured a rail bias, whereas Athena Beach was setting the pace inside. I wonder if that enhanced her performance, so that she’s better assessed by some of her prior efforts. Cousin Kristi (#4) is another who could take money, but she was beaten more decisively by that same rival, Tricky Temper, in the Union Avenue last time. That was her return to the NYRA circuit after running some faster speed figures for a different barn at Gulfstream. I didn’t think she was quite good enough to beat this field based on her prior New York form, and she appeared to regress back to it last time. Before scratches, this looked like a race that would feature a fast pace that could fall into the lap of a closer. I'm a little less confident about that now that some key speed players have scratched out. A horse to upgrade now might be Queens Masterpiece (#8), who should fall into a good stalking trip and has been working well for her return. I'm keeping True Empress (#6) on top even though the pace doesn't suit her as well anymore. She wasn’t running quite well enough to beat a field like this when we last saw her at Aqueduct, but now she’s back in the barn of Finger Lakes-based trainer Michael Ferraro. She had been in the best form of her career when with this trainer last year, reeling off 5 victories in 7 starts for this barn, with 2 seconds. Furthermore, she’s won each of the last 6 races in which she’s been trainer by Ferraro and ridden by Luis Perez. She won when she was back with that team last time, overcoming a very tardy start to win going away. If she gets a decent setup, I think she this longshot can outrun her odds.

Fair Value:
#6 TRUE EMPRESS, at 7-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 25

by David Aragona

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 4 - 11
Race 7:   11 - 12 - 1 - 14
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 9:   1 - 10 - 2 - 8
Race 10:   1 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 11:   12 - 2 - 1 - 8

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 3

I’ll be interested to see how the public bets this second-level New York-bred allowance optional claimer. Bourbon Chase (#3) typically took money in most of his starts for the Todd Pletcher barn even as he racked up a series of losses. He ran pretty well in a couple of races at this level just prior to the layoff last winter, but he settled for second both times. Now he’s returning from a layoff in a new barn. This switch to Mike Maker could be viewed as a positive considering how hot the barn has been at this meet, but I still don’t trust this horse to seal the deal at a short price. Only Barese (#1) will participate as part of the entry, with Daufuskie Island having raced on Friday. He was compromised by a rail bias last time and might be a candidate to rebound. He also had excuses prior to that, since he was checked badly heading into the clubhouse turn two back, and previously caught a series of wet tracks. He's another that I don't completely trust, but he might be a fair price first off the claim for a capable barn. Dr. Kraft (#4) achieved a better result in that last race, but he was very much with the flow of a rail-biased surface. Elysian Meadows (#2) seems like a candidate to get back to the winner’s circle as he finally returns to a dirt sprint. He ran well in the Mike Lee going this distance three back. However, he’s now returning on short rest following a poor turf attempt, and Bill Mott is just 7 for 58 (12%, $0.94 ROI) off 7 to 14 day layoffs over 5 years. My top pick is Silver Satin (#5). He’s moving up to this level for the first time, but appears ready for this next step following a game victory going 6 furlongs last time. While the runner-up came back to run poorly, he did so in an off the turf race where he completely failed to show up. The last-place finisher came back to win, and there are other signals that the race may have been better than it appears. I also thought this horse put in a strong performance to finish third going this distance two back, as he was hampered multiple times, bumped repeatedly at the start before getting pushed wide on the turn. I like the way he’s been developing, and think stretching back out to 7 furlongs will suit him.

Fair Value:
#5 SILVER SATIN, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

It’s hard to know exactly where the public will focus their wagering support in this wide open New York-bred allowance race. Perhaps Island Fox (#7) will take money since she’s at least exiting a victory, albeit against maidens. She’s more lightly raced than most other options in this field, and clearly improved with the switch to turf. However, she did get a perfect trip and is stepping up to face tougher foes. Another 3-year-old with only one prior turf start under her belt is Midnight Concerto (#12), who took to grass pretty well at Aqueduct back in June. She was coming off a layoff that day, and was a little sluggish through the early stages after hitting the gate and getting bumped after the start. Yet she was finishing best of all late once finally asked for her best. Now she gets Lasix for the first time, and is supposed to get some pace ahead of her. Among the likely speeds, I'm intrigued by Chasing Daylight (#14) drawing into the field from the AE list. She's never tried turf, but her dam's side pedigree is all grass. She's drawn in a tough post, but figures to be a huge price. Several runners in this field participated in the July 21 race at this level. Busy Morning (#1) probably deserves another chance after encountering some traffic in deep stretch last time, but she had gotten a good trip until that point. The horse I want out of that July 21 affair is Roagna (#11). She’s been a little disappointing since winning her debut so impressively late last season at Aqueduct. Yet she hasn’t had ideal trips in her three races so far this year, and that was especially true last time. She broke well from the rail and had a chance to go forward, but instead got reined in, causing her to get rank. Javier Castellano angled her off the rail onto the backstretch, accepting a wide trip the rest of the way. She shifted out into the 4-path for the entire far turn, and understandably flattened out late. Now H. James Bond wisely takes the blinkers off, which should help her settle better. She’s going to get pace to close into, and I think she’s better than her recent results suggest.

Fair Value:
#11 ROAGNA, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

With My Mane Squeeze passing this race in favor of Charles Town, Landed (#2) becomes the clear favorite looking to win her second stakes in a row. She beat a pretty strong field in the Bouwerie last time, and was flattered when runner-up Caldwell Luvs Gold came back to win the New York Oaks and third-place Tricky Temper won the Union Avenue two starts later. I do think Landed was somewhat aided by a speed bias on Jun. 9, but she had run well prior to that and proved she could get two turns at Keeneland. Her main rival now becomes Dolomite (#4), but I have some questions about this filly getting the distance. She got a very good trip when she tried to go this far in the Demoiselle last year, and just couldn’t make up ground late. I thought her return against weaker company was fine, but now they’re asking a lot of her to stretch all the way out to 9 furlongs. They are the two most likely winners, but I have some reservations about each of them at short prices. Maggy’s Palace (#6) obviously needs another step forward to beat these rivals, but I like the way she’s been coming along as a 3-year-old. Her return victory was better than it looks on paper, as she rallied to victory off the layoff going a distance that is probably a little short for her. The connections then tried her in an ambitious spot against older stakes rivals and while she was no match for the superior Sterling Silver, she did well to get up for second over the in-form Smokin Hot Kitty. I thought she clearly ran the best race that day after a wide trip around the turn. She strikes me as one that should appreciate the two turns, and she’s going to fly under the radar despite being ridden by the best rider of longshots at the meet.

Fair Value:
#6 MAGGY'S PALACE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

Mo Plex (#10) has to be considered the horse to beat coming out of his Grade 3 Sanford score. I think the connections are being realistic by running in this spot rather than trying open company rivals again in the Grade 1 Hopeful. I just have some concerns about the quality of that last race, and think he’s stepping up against a tougher group here even as he moves back into New York-bred company. Mike Maker had entered two interesting second time starters, but will only go with Smilensaycheese (#1). This colt was a mild surprise on debut, since he hadn’t shown that much in the mornings prior to his start. Yet he was certainly ready to fire in the afternoon. He broke sharply and established the early lead, but then drifted out on the turn when appearing to lose some focus. He got passed by today’s rival The Toner at the quarter pole, but came back to win going away under pressure. That was an encouraging performance by a horse who is clearly still figuring things out. While he’s clearly fast, perhaps the connections will experiment with rating tactics this time with so much speed signed on. He appears to prefer racing outside of horses, so Luis Saez will likely try to get him off the rail at some point. Mike Maker is 6 for 22 (27%, $1.80 ROI) with 2-year-old debut winners making their 2nd starts in dirt sprints. His price won't be as enticing after scratches, but his chances of winning have clearly increased with some speed coming out.

Fair Value:
#1 SMILENSAYCHEESE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 10

Silver Skillet (#5) figures to be a strong favorite as she looks to win her third stakes in a row. She showed off her versatility two back, handling a switch to dirt while beating one of today’s rivals in the Mt. Vernon. Yet she’s a better turf horse, and she was able to transition that improved form back to grass last time, drawing off to a commanding victory in the Port Washington. She had all the best of it on the front end that day, but I think her margin of victory was enhanced by what was behind her, as no one else showed up with a top effort. This is a tougher race overall, and I didn’t want to just default to her at a short price. Whatlovelookslike (#4) is an intriguing runner returning from a layoff. Her connections got a little too ambitious trying to stretch her out in a Grade 3 last fall, but her prior form against New York-breds had been solid. She possesses useful early speed, and this barn typically has them ready to go off a break. My top pick is Spinning Colors (#1), who is stepping up against stakes company for the first time. She has been a revelation since switching to turf and stretching out, winning 3 of her last 4 starts, and arguably running the best race in her lone loss last September. This is a big class test for a filly who just beat state-bred N2X allowance foes last time, but she was clearly best in victory that day, sprinting clear of the field through the lane. Her 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive with the favorite. She figures to be even sharper with that start under her belt, especially considering the way she improved second off a layoff last season. This might be the last time to catch a fair price on her before she proves she classes up with this group.

Fair Value:
#1 SPINNING COLORS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 11

I view ML favorite Capital Spending (#2) as the horse to beat off her last effort. I had been a little disappointed in her sprint performances following that promising debut. Yet perhaps she just wanted to go longer, as she really stepped forward going the mile last time. She did not get a good trip, hung 3 to 4-wide around both turns, but was still running on gamely to the wire. She’s drawn much better towards the inside this time, and she will be tough to beat if she runs as well as her last performance. North End Lady (#1) participated in that same race but was her own worst enemy getting rank into the clubhouse turn and fighting her rider for a few furlongs. Now Barclay Tagg is taking the blinkers off, and she also drew much better than she has in her last couple of starts. Among those with experience, I think they are the two you want. I’m just intrigued by a first time starter. Sinead (#12) was obviously done no favors by the post position draw, getting mired out in the far outside slot. However, I like what I’ve seen from this filly coming into the race. I’m a big fan of Mendelssohn as a sire, especially on the turf. Her dam earned both of her victories on turf, albeit sprinting. Jorge Abreu can obviously win with a first time starter even though his barn has been a little quiet with those types this year. I like the drills for her debut, especially that July 14 turf breeze, in which she showed a nice turn of foot to sprint away from workmates.

Fair Value:
#12 SINEAD, at 5-1 or greater

TimeformUS Race Analysis

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