Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 1

by David Aragona
 

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 9 - 12 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 4:   4 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 12 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   1 - 9 - 11 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 10 - 8 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 1A - 2
Race 11:   7 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 12:   6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 13:   2 - 9 - 12 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 
RACE 4

I’m not thrilled with the likely favorites in this $25k conditioned claimer. Waitlist (#7) is arguably the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph. It’s been unwise to dismiss anything the barn has sent out at this meet, but the drop in class off the claim for $50k is mildly concerning. He did earn his best TimeformUS Speed Figure on dirt three back, but that was an off the turf race in the slop. It’s unclear if he’s a true fast track dirt horse, and his lack of early speed makes him unappealing at a short price. I also have concerns about the dropdown for Cloud Forest (#5). This gelding has form that would make him competitive in starter allowance races, but he’s now dropping below the level for which he was claimed in his return from a layoff. Ray Handal is in the midst of a strong meet, but I have reservations. Smile Mon (#9) drops down just 3 starts after getting claimed for $50k by Rob Atras. He obviously isn’t the same horse that was finishing third behind Highland Falls last year, but he did run a race two back that would make him competitive here. I’m not going to be too hard on him for his last result, since there were multiple disappointments in that Aug. 17 affair, and he was never in good position after failing to make the lead. At a much bigger price, my top pick is Unclecharliesgift (#4). This gelding strikes me as one that could really benefit from a stretch-out in distance. He has the frame of a horse who should want to go longer, and he’s a half-brother to dirt route winner Scarred. Nick Zito has given him that old school pattern of two sprints off a layoff before a stretch-out, and he’s drawn well as a horse who wants to lug in at times. He’s been facing slightly weaker competition at the same level, but I think this race looks tougher than it actually is given all of the untrustworthy dropdowns.

Fair Value:
#4 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT, at 8-1 or greater
#9 SMILE MON, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 5

This $16k claimer has to be one of the most confusing races of the weekend. There’s no clear favorite, and it’s hard to trust any of the runners to hold their form. Rob Falcone appears to have a pretty strong hand, sending out two contenders. Market Alert (#3) has the better overall form of the two, but he’s coming off a poor effort last time at the $25k level. However, I thought he didn’t get a great trip, as he was shuffled back into the turn and just never in great position. He’s better than that, and would be tough if rebounding to any of his prior races. Critical Threat (#5) is actually a claim back by Falcone, who lost him when he won here for $12,500 on July 19. However, now he’s claiming him back with Flying P as the owner, and that stable has been overperforming throughout the meet. He’s best when he can contest the pace, and the Pace Projector indicates that he’s the quickest of them all early. Nolo Contesto (#12) doesn’t win very often, but his recent dirt form makes him a major player at this level. He ran well against $25k claiming competition two back, chasing home Amundson, who would be a prohibitive favorite against a field like this. A turf experiment last time didn’t work out, but he’s back at his preferred 7-furlong distance and should have a good chance to get forward breaking from the outside. My top pick is Bourbon Calling (#4), who is seeking to get back on track after losing his best form in recent starts. He was once capable of running races that would crush a field like this, but he went in the wrong direction last winter, and only briefly recovered hints of his prior ability this spring before going the wrong way again. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Parx-based Ernesto Padilla-Preciado, who posts some impressive statistics at his home track. The barn does well of the claim generally, and is 6 for 12 (50%, $6.33 ROI) first off the claim going from routes to sprints on dirt over 5 years. Furthermore, this gelding’s last race isn’t as bad as it looks since he was wide against a rail bias. He’s won going this distance in the past, and should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#4 BOURBON CALLING, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 6

I don’t trust dropdown Adventurous Spirit (#11), who makes his first start for a tag after a few decent efforts at the maiden special weight level. He looks like a standout in this field at first glance, but I’m just not quite convinced about his overall ability. He’s gotten good trips in a few races and just hasn’t been able to produce the necessary finish to get the job done. He’s also been off for 3 months since he was a vet scratch earlier in the meet and shows a very spotty worktab for his return, which is highly uncharacteristic of the Pletcher barn. I want alternatives. My top pick is Guile (#1), who makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. While I’m a fan of his prior connections, there’s no denying that this is an upgrade to a barn that just wins many more races, as well as a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz. I didn’t love his lone turf effort, but he got a wide trip that day and was always too far back. He did show some more early interest on dirt last time, so it appears that he was at least in good form prior to the claim. He’s bred to be a turf horse, and I think he deserves another chance on this surface. The other horse that I want to use is Get It to Matthew (#9), who tries this surface for the first time. I’m not totally convinced about this new gelding’s overall ability, but I did think he ran better than it looks on debut when on the wrong part of the racetrack. He obviously needed his return from a layoff in June, and he showed better early speed last time. I like progeny of Mendelssohn getting to the turf, and there is some grass pedigree on the dam’s side. Ray Handal doesn’t have particularly strong numbers making this move, but this one will be a price.

Fair Value:
#1 GUILE, at 4-1 or greater
#9 GET IT TO MATTHEW, at 10-1 or greater
 

RACE 10

This turf sprint came up very strong for a second-level New York-bred allowance race. A few of the most interesting contenders are actually in for the optional $45k claiming tag, including ML favorite Run Curtis Run (#2), who drops out of tougher open company allowance races. If he runs back to his effort over this course three back he’s going to beat this field. However, I really haven’t been thrilled his last couple of races. Perhaps the drop will get back to his better form, but it’s never like he’s been the most reliable win candidate. Both halves of the entry are also in for the tag, and they each have their merits. Scuttlebuzz (#1) was obviously a horse that would have been better to have last time when he paid $34 to win turning back to a turf sprint. Perhaps Rudy Rodriguez just has him back in better form, because he has races from a couple years ago that would beat these. Maxwell Esquire (#1A) is the other half of the entry, and it’s kind of amazing that Rudy Rodriguez hasn’t run this horse in a turf sprint in any of his last 7 starts. He’s always been best over this kind of configuration, and Rudy has actually gotten him into better form going longer lately. The other horse with superior turf sprint form is Seaver (#4). It bothers me a little bit that he’s run his best races at Gulfstream, but I think he ran better than it appears in his last start off the layoff. That stakes was upset by a big price, but there were some very good horses in there, and Seaver was running on well at the end despite getting rated off a slow pace. My concern wit this spot is that there doesn’t appear to be much true speed in this field. I think that’s going to make Boss Tweed (#3) dangerous at a price. I’ve also always wanted to see this horse on the turf. Laoban is just a 10% turf sprint sire, but there is real turf pedigree on the dam’s side. The dam’s only full-sister is Me and the Sea G T, who was a stakes winner sprinting on turf up in Canada. Gary Contessa has entered this horse for turf at least a couple of times in the past. He has action that suggests he should take to turf, and he also has the profile of a horse who should really benefit from the slight cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs.

Fair Value:
#3 BOSS TWEED, at 8-1 or greater
 

RACE 11

Running Bee (#5) is probably the horse to beat as he turns back in distance. Perhaps he just didn’t want to go the 1 3/8 miles in the United Nations, as he never really picked up the pace that day after tracking the leaders early. His prior form puts him squarely in the mix. He dead heated with today’s rival Fort Washington (#1) at Monmouth two back, and arguably ran the better race after having to search for room in the stretch. His tactical speed usually ensures that he works out a good trip, and he really doesn’t need to improve much at all to beat this field. Fort Washington also disappointed in the United Nations, but his overall form makes him unreliable. This is also a situation where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners, and that works against a deep closer. I gave strong consideration to Pioneering Spirit (#4), who won this race last year but hasn’t had nearly as much success since returning for the 2024 season. He benefited from the Lure getting rained off the turf two back, picking up second in a short field on dirt. He then ran better than most might have expected in the G1 Sword Dancer, just barely failing to pick up the superior Silver Knott for third on the wire. I don’t mind him cutting back in distance, and he did make the same move last year en route to winning this race at a square price. Cherie DeVaux has two in this field, but I don’t trust Rebel Red (#3) to reproduce his last race, since it’s been reported that he lost an eye in a stall accident since then. My top pick is DeVaux’s more accomplished runner Taking Candy (#7). He came to hand winning that allowance at Saratoga a year ago before running a respectable second to the talented Carl Spackler in the Saranac. He missed a lot of time thereafter, but he returned seemingly in the best form of his career in his victory earlier at the meet. He got a decent trip stalking a fast pace but did well to hold off a host of late challenges in victory. A repeat of that 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure would probably put him in the winner’s circle here. It's reasonable to expect some improvement second off the layoff, and he continues to train well.

Fair Value:
#7 TAKING CANDY, at 2-1 or greater
 

RACE 12

Arthur’s Ride (#7) announced his presence as a major force in the older dirt division when winning the Grade 1 Whitney so decisively in early August. He had tipped his hand at being capable of such a performance in his prior start, where he defeated overmatched allowance foes by nearly 13 lengths. He improved on that effort last time, as Junior Alvarado gunned him out of the gate to set a much faster pace. Those enterprising tactics worked, as he opened up an insurmountable lead by the time the field hit mid-stretch. His paired up TimeformUS Speed Figures of 126 and 122 for those efforts are the two best numbers in the field this year. He likely won’t have to run as fast on the front end this time, which should make him even more formidable. He’s just going to be a very short price now that his form is totally exposed. Disarm (#4) finished well behind Arthur’s Ride on Whitney day, but that was a step in the right direction for a horse looking to cycle back to his peak 3-year-old form. He should appreciate stretching back out to this distance, as he did run a career-best race at this configuration in last year’s Travers. There are others in this field who will appreciate the 10-furlong distance. One of those is Tapit Trice (#1). He was considered a disappointment by the end of his 3-year-old season even though he ran pretty well in the Belmont and Travers, the latter with the addition of blinkers. Since that equipment has been added, he’s gotten better trips early in his races, including last time at Monmouth when he won so impressively from just off the pace. The extra furlong figures to suit him, but he does now have to overcome the rail draw as a horse who doesn’t always break that alertly. I prefer Highland Falls (#6), who finished just behind Tapit Trice when they met in the Monmouth Cup. The margin was over 5 lengths at the wire, but I’m pretty confident the actual gap in ability between these two is much narrower. Highland Falls just got the wrong trip at every stage of the race. He broke on top and had an opportunity to control the pace, but his rider made a tactical error deciding to rein him in behind horses. From there he got caught in traffic, having to alter course a couple of times before finding a clear path too late. His prior form makes him competitive here, and I even think he ran better than it looks in his prior attempt at the distance in the Santa Anita Handicap. He gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat for this race and will finally be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#6 HIGHLAND FALLS, at 3-1 or greater