by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 1A - 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 1/1A - 3
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 11 - 8
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 10 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 7 - 5 - 6 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I respect La Cara (#8), who earned a solid 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her runner-up finish in her most recent outing at Churchill. She had been green on debut and displayed vastly improved early speed, leading before settling for second against a strong field. She should be quick enough to make the top again, and she’s drawn well outside. Kimchi Cat (#1) also exits a runner-up finish at Churchill Downs. She was no match for beaten Schuylerville favorite Viggiedal but stayed on well to finish a clear second. She took money that day and still has upside, though Tom Amoss is just 10 for 59 (17%, $1.36 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. My top pick is another second time starters who chased home a Schuylerville also-ran. Bossy Pants (#6) got a good education in her debut race behind Complexion. She broke slowly and got cut off leaving the board, relegating her to last early. She steadily improved her position down the backstretch and around the turn, willingly running through kickback. She flattened out late, but that was a race where the leaders got away with slow fractions and quickened home, so she actually did well to pass as many horses as she did. Bill Mott is another trainer who doesn’t have stellar statistics with second time starters, but she ran better than it appears on debut and may show a lot more early speed with a better start this time.
Fair Value:
#6 BOSSY PANTS, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
Two experienced maidens figure to dominate the wagering in this 9-furlong affair. Both favorites are 0 for 5 in their careers, but each has displayed a high level of talent while simply beaten by some superior competition. That’s obviously the case for Protective (#7), who has been thrust into a series of graded stakes events despite still being a maiden. He really hasn’t been disgraced in any of those stakes attempts, running even better than it appears in the Peter Pan after some upper stretch traffic. Even his Belmont Stakes effort was solid, since he was in the mix until getting cut off by Sierra Leone in mid-stretch. Now they finally take a step back with him, hoping the drop back into the maiden ranks will give him a confidence boost. Military Road (#1) might look a little tougher to trust as a win candidate after settling for second in 4 of his 5 starts against maidens. But the truth is that he’s been unfortunate to run into some particularly tough maiden fields along the way. He’s still earned some of the fastest speed figures in this field, and he obviously handles the distance, responding gamely to a deep stretch challenge going this far last time. I just think there’s a little more upside with my top selection. Itza Mirrakle (#3) didn't take much money on debut here during Belmont Stakes week, where he got away to a slow start. He found his stride on the backstretch, moving up willingly along the rail before angling out in upper stretch to produce a strong finish. His 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him competitive here and he’s not supposed to mind added ground. Arrogate wins with an excellent 21% of his dirt route starters, which should overcome the sprint pedigree on the dam’s side. This rangy colt showed off a long stride on debut, looking very much like a two-turn type. Tom Morley often doesn’t have them cranked up to win first time out, so a step forward can be expected.
Fair Value:
#3 ITZA MIRRAKLE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
The Cherie DeVaux entry figures to attract plenty of support in this maiden special weight event, and they do look like legitimate favorites with each one appearing to have a strong chance to win. Deep Satin (#1A) has shown the stronger form based on her first couple of starts. She made an eye-catching run from off the pace to get up for second in her Keeneland debut before running similarly well at Churchill. She improved her TimeformUS Speed Figure to a 106 last time, which is one of the highest numbers in this field. She was pretty handy that day, always traveling well before moving up to challenge in upper stretch, only to get passed from behind in the late stages. She figures to be tough with a similar effort this time. Yet her stablemate Pisciotta (#1) may be the one with more upside. She was pretty green on debut, lacking speed while looking tough to handle through the early stages. She got over to the rail to save ground on the backstretch and into the turn, but then veered out dramatically in upper stretch when asked for some run. She showed ability in staying on for fourth after all that, and her dam is a full-sister to 4-time Group 1 winner Al Kazeem, so there is real potential for her. You’re just not getting much of a price here. I wasn’t thrilled with the alternatives who could also take money and wanted to explore some bigger prices. I had trouble making up my mind about Appellate (#3), who displayed the talent to be competitive here during her 2-year-old season, finishing second to Breeders’ Cup winner Hard to Justify on debut. Her return at Churchill was poor, but she might have just failed to handle the course. My top pick is the likely bigger price of the two Chad Brown runners, Coif (#2). She chased a slow pace and backed up on debut, just not striding comfortably over the dirt despite taking money in that spot. Brown immediately switched to turf for her second start, and she fared better despite finishing off the board. She made a 3-wide move on the far turn but flattened out late in a race that was falling apart. She is bred to be more of a turf horse since her dam had success on this surface. I think she’ll be capable of better with a ground-saving trip here, and she should finally be a more palatable price.
Fair Value:
#2 COIF, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
I don’t have a major knock against Truly Quality (#2), other than the fact that his form at these marathon distances is now exposed. He showed ability right from the start of his career, but it took him getting out to these three-turn marathons to really take them next step forward. He ran deceptively well in that April 25 allowance at Keeneland, pressing the pace and taking over in the stretch before getting run down by the Champagne Juan, who would go on to just miss in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup. Then last time he was facing an inferior field at the N1X level, but he absolutely crushed them, winning off by 6 lengths with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort will make him very tough. I think his two main rivals are horses who competed in a May 2 optional claimer going a bit shorter than this. One horse that draws into the race after scratches that I would consider is Lucky Curlin (#11). He was part of a crazy pace scenario in the Belmont Gold Cup last time, and was facing better in his prior marathon races. Mondego (#8) checked in third as the favorite that afternoon after setting a contested pace in a race that went to closers. He was subsequently a vet scratch in June, but now he’s returning for his second start of the season while stretching out to a marathon. He’s never gone this far, but he did run the best race of his career at 10 furlongs in the Belmont Derby last season. He figures to control the pace early and that makes him dangerous. My top pick is Daunt (#5), who was actually the horse pressing Mondego through the early stages of that May 2 allowance, where they both paid the price late. He ran in that June 16 allowance from which Mondego was scratched, but got a wide trip in a race that was dominated by horses who rode the inside on a day when the rail path was a minor advantage. I think he will take a step forward stretching back out to 1 3/8 miles here. He's run his best races over marathon distances, finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Bowling Green going this same trip last summer. The last time he got a chance to contest a 3-turn turf race against allowance company came all the way back in Oct. 2022, and he won.
Fair Value:
#5 DAUNT, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 10
This claiming finale is one of the most competitive races of the entire first week of the Saratoga meet. There’s no clear-cut favorite, as suggested by my morning line, which has Value Engineer (#3) as the shortest price in the main body of the field at 5-1. He is one of the keys to this race, since he showed plenty of early speed during his 2-year-old season and figures to be sent forward from his inside post. This will mark his first start for a tag after he faded in a couple of tougher races last year. With routine improvement through maturity he should be fast enough to contend against this field. Yet he does have to prove he’s made that step forward while also working out a trip with other speed in the race. Among the likely pace players, La Maquina (#1) and Big Big Star (#2) both drew well towards the inside and seem to fit this spot well. The latter gets some class relief after getting mildly shuffled back around the far turn of his most recent start. Beary Funny (#6) handled turf pretty well in his debut over the surface last time. Unlike a couple of others who exit that race, he never saw the rail, racing two- to three-wide throughout. He doesn’t have to improve much on that effort to be competitive here. Another horse who might be moving forward at the right time is Downing Street (#5). His turf speed figures aren’t quite fast enough, but he had a trip two back when locked in behind the leaders in upper stretch, unable to get through in a race he was probably going to win. He took another step forward on synthetic last time, and can be a factor here if he transfers that back to grass. My top pick is Write Off Jerry (#7), who switches back to turf after a series of dirt and synthetic starts. He showed affinity for turf in 2023, breaking his maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis before hitting the board against a much tougher field in October. He broke poorly that day and got a little rank but still rallied on for third. His form tailed off after that, but he seems to be coming back around since getting claimed by Joe Sharp. He got a little rank entering the backstretch last time as the leaders backed down the pace, but he still stayed on well thereafter. Tyler Gaffalione should be able to adjust now that he’s more familiar with him. I’m also encouraged that Joe Sharp is 14 for 65 (22%, $2.32 ROI) with 4-year-old and up non-maidens switching from dirt to turf routes over five years.
Fair Value:
#7 WRITE OFF JERRY, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 1/1A - 3
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 1A - 7 - 8
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 6 - 10
Race 7: 1 - 9 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 10 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 8 - 4 - 12
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 11: 6 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 12: 5 - 9 - 3 - 11
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5 — #3 REBEL RED, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8 — #2 POINT CLEAR, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 9 — #1 TIDAL FORCES, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 10 — #5 GINA ROMANTICA, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 12 — #5 HEYMACKIT'SJACK, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 1A/1 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 4 - 8 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 10: 11 - 1 - 7 - 6
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Dillinger (#7) will likely go favored in this conditioned claimer as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He showed some ability early on for Bob Baffert but had trouble breaking his maiden then seemed to tail off before finally getting his diploma for Brittany Russell in the summer of 2023. He sold for $150k after that, remaining with Brittany, but he just hasn’t looked the same since returning from a layoff this year. He’s lacked both early speed and a late punch in two starts against tougher, so now he drops. Russell has mediocre statistics with this move, and he’s likely to get overbet with Irad riding, so I want to look elsewhere. Stormquist (#5) seems like the most logical alternative for the always dangerous Linda Rice barn. This 3-year-old has run well a couple of times since getting claimed by Linda, and is just getting logical class relief as he faces older rivals for the first time. Perhaps Paschal Moon (#3) can regain some of his early speed to be prominent in the early stages. He seemed to tail off earlier this winter, but he took a step back in the right direction when dropped to this level last time. Now he makes his first start off the claim for James Ferraro after he was a vet scratch (injured) in late June. My top pick is Unclecharliesgift (#6), who returns from a layoff for Nick Zito. This gelding obviously has to get faster, but I think he’s already shown he’s better than some of his speed figures from last year suggest. He was just badly overmatched in his first couple of starts against some deep maiden special weight fields. He then didn’t get the best rides or trips from a 7-pound apprentice in his next two starts at Finger Lakes. He broke slowly and checked at the start two back before rushing up into traffic, waiting, and mowing them down late. Then last time he again was off slowly but advanced willingly before finding himself behind a wall of horses in upper stretch. He ultimately angled back inside to just miss. This son of Uncle Mo appears to have some ability and is getting a huge rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione. I think he’s returning to Saratoga at the right class level this time.
Fair Value:
#6 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 3
The entry figures to go off at a pretty short price in this turf maiden event. Storm Ready (#1A) is obviously the more accomplished half of the pair at this point in time. A repeat of either of his last two turf efforts would make him awfully tough for this field to handle. He actually ran better than the result might indicate in his debut when he was green and got a conservative ride. He’s since put things together, closing stoutly into a fast pace two back before chasing home the talented Unit Economics last time. He also showed a new dimension in that race, placing himself closer to the early pace, that that versatility should serve him well this time. Entrymate Steadfast Resolve (#1) would have been interesting as an individual betting interest, since he had a significant trip last time, making a premature, wide move in a three-turn race. However, there’s no value in betting him as part of this entry. Tom Collins (#5) returns from a 9-month layoff for his belated 3-year-old debut. He showed some promise as a juvenile once he got on turf, finishing just a half-length behind subsequent Grade 2 stakes winner Agate Road at this venue last September. He then lost as the favorite at Aqueduct without much excuse, but he’s had plenty of time to mature since then. He’s bred to be a nice turf runner, and now gets Lasix for his return. Shug McGaughey does well with these types, going 17 for 68 (25%, $2.17 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes over 5 years. Chad Brown has an uncoupled pair of runners in this race. Passive Management (#4) figures to attract more support as a gelding by Dubawi who was purchase for $601k overseas at Tattersalls. Brown obviously excels with first time starters, and this horse has worked reasonably well on dirt for this. I prefer Brown’s other entrant Clever Mischief (#6). This homebred had worked well prior to his debut, taking some money to go off at 6-1 in a loaded field on Belmont Stakes weekend. However, he couldn’t keep up early and never looked quite comfortable racing in traffic. He now switches to turf without much obvious grass pedigree. Yet Into Mischief is underrated as a turf sire, winning with a solid 13% of his turf route starters, and Chad Brown does well with maidens who immediately switch surfaces like this. I’m also encouraged by his worktab. He got in a turf workout on July 5, going in company with MTO entrant Commander of Truth, and appeared to be striding over the surface better than he’s moved on dirt. I think he’s going to step forward with the surface switch, and I won’t be surprised when Flavien Prat sends him to the front in a race lacking much early speed.
Fair Value:
#6 CLEVER MISCHIEF, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 4
This feels like a race where a pretty obvious trip horse is going to take plenty of money. Tunisian Spring (#7) checked in fifth across the wire in that June 8 affair, but he likely would have won that race if not for running into traffic in mid-stretch. He had built up good momentum coming to the quarter pole and Jose Ortiz kept him inside to try and slice through the pack. Unfortunately there was just a wall of horses ahead of him and he had to check, then swing out, and get steadied again before easing up to the finish. The problem with simply upgrading Tunisian Spring is twofold: 1) his trip will likely be built into his price, and 2) he still benefited from a very favorable pace setup. He’s still one of the horses I would want out of that June 8 affair, but I’m concerned he may not offer value. Mike Maker has a pair of runners, neither one of which figures to be that short a price. Inflation Nation (#1) will look to get back on track after showing speed and fading off the layoff in his first start for the Maker barn at Churchill. This colt showed promise early in his career, actually breaking his maiden over this course and distance as a 2-year-old. He ran well in the Paradise Creek last year before something seemed to go awry just prior to the Saratoga meet. I think he can take a step forward getting back to this circuit. My top pick is Maker’s other runner Cigarette Boat (#5), who is the horse I find most appealing out of that June 8 Saratoga race at this level. He was chasing that fast pace while racing 3 to 4-wide early before getting spun even wider at the top of the stretch. He continued battling on to only get beaten a length in a race that was falling apart. When you sift through his form to isolate his turf sprints, he’s consistently run well in these types of races. Luis Saez rode both of these Maker runners last time and lands here. There doesn’t appear to be nearly as much pace signed on this time, so I think his tactical speed will be more of an asset.
Fair Value:
#5 CIGARETTE BOAT, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 7
This starter optional claimer is one of the most wide open races on the card. You can make some kind of case for most of the runners in this field, so I don’t want to settle for a short price on a horse like Mauritius (#7). He comes off a victory at the N2L level and now steps up in class. His recent form is solid but he also got a very favorable trip last time and isn’t guaranteed to make a clear lead here. Palace View (#5) is another who I’m somewhat against. He has improved recently on synthetic, but his turf form hardly makes him a standout in this field, and he’s going to get bet with Irad Ortiz aboard. The horse to beat might actually be Classic Creation (#4), who ran a race on turf two back at Santa Anita that would make him tough against this field. He got a wide trip that day and was still staying on for third. I can excuse his last effort where he had trouble at the start going 1 1/2 miles against much tougher, and now he drops back to the right level. I would upgrade him if he's anywhere near his ML price. Another horse who interests me is Leftembehind (#8). He got a very wide trip when he last tried turf in May, losing significant ground around both turns. He then caught a speed-favoring strip on dirt last time at Saratoga. It does feel like he’s improved overall in his last few starts, but I’m worried that he could lose ground again under John Velazquez. My top pick is Gilded Craken (#2), who makes just his second turf attempt despite the fact that he won his only other start on the surface. The prior grass victory came against $30k maiden claimers, but he appeared to handle the surface well and showed tenacity to fend off a stretch challenge. He’s since improved overall, running the fastest dirt races of his entire career in recent starts. I especially liked his last race off the claim for Joe Sharp, who now switches back to grass. Sharp is 31 for 147 (21%, $2.91 ROI) with horses going from dirt to turf routes over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#2 GILDED CRAKEN, at 5-1 or greater
#4 CLASSIC CREATION, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Now that Star of Mystery (#10) is expected to scratch from this Coronation Cup in favor of Sunday’s Quick Call, it actually makes it a much more interesting race to handicap. There’s no clear favorite left among this well matched group of 9 fillies. Ever So Sweet (#6) will be the one to catch if she flaunts the kind of speed she displayed at Aqueduct off the layoff. She set some blazing early fractions that day before drawing off from an overmatched field. The waters get much deeper this time, but she may have really improved as a 3-year-old and I respect her chances to wire this field. Three fillies who raced in the Mazelle at Churchill are back in this spot. Twirling Queen (#5) won that day with a very good trip, but I wonder if she can keep stepping forward, especially now that she has to chase Ever So Sweet up front. Cloudwalker (#9) ran out of ground that day but came back with an impressive effort to beat older rivals at Churchill last time. She’s run well in all of her prior starts for Brendan Walsh and will be firing late if any pace develops. My top pick is Toupie (#1). I had liked this horse even with Star of Mystery in the race. She just hit her best stride a little too late in the Mamzelle but came back with an impressive victory in the Stormy Blues at Laurel. That appeared to be a race of some quality, and her 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her one of the fastest fillies in this field. I don’t mind the rail draw for a handy filly like this, and I’m viewing her as the most likely winner.
Fair Value:
#1 TOUPIE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 10
The scratch of Adventurous Spirit really opens this race up, since he was the obvious center point of this race. Thorpedo Run (#1) is a real enigma as he returns from a layoff that’s lasted nearly two years, but he's probably going to inherit the favorite's role at this point. He did run well in his grass debut all the way back in April of 2022, finishing third behind a pair of talented turf horses. He subsequently regressed going shorter, but it is interesting that he even shows up in the Chad Brown stable after all this time away. There isn’t a ton of speed in this field, so he is a potential gate-to-wire threat. My top pick is Guile (#11), who I have been waiting to see get a chance on turf. He’s improved a bit through his recent dirt starts, but they tried to get him on turf two back and now he will get his chance to make the surface switch. Blame is a solid turf influence, and the dam won on turf in France and has produced a turf winner who moved up on the surface. He moves like a turf horse, and I think he’s going to take a step forward. He just has to work out a trip from this wide draw under Romero Maragh.
Fair Value:
#11 GUILE, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 11 - 8 - 5 - 9
Race 2: 7 - 9
Race 3: 5 - 10 - 1A - 9
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 9 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 7: 2 - 11 - 3 - 10
Race 8: 7 - 11 - 12 - 13
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 9 - 7
Race 10: 10 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 11: 8 - 16 - 2 - 11
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
The first race of the 2024 Saratoga season is the typical two-turn claiming affair, which starts in front of the stands. There are plenty of dropdowns in questionable current form racing for the $20k tag, so it’s a difficult race to kick off the meet. The horse to beat is arguably I Am the Law (#5), who has at least run competitively at higher levels through his recent starts. His speed figures were fairly consistent leading into that regression last time, and that performance might have been even worse than it looks, since he was meeting a very weak field for the level. That said, he gets back out to a two-turn distance that he relishes, and he’s drawn well. Rocco Strong (#8) interests me a little more, since the public might dismiss him based on a series of losses by double-digit margins. Yet I don’t think any of those efforts are quite as bad as they might seem at first glance. He wasn’t the only horse who threw in the towel facing runaway winner Arthur’s Ride last time, and prior to that he just caught some really tough fields at the N2X level. The drop is steep but realistic, and his tactical speed should put him in good position. I’m not taking as positive a view of Empty Tomb (#7), who disappointed off the layoff and had struggled to get this distance even when he was at this best. People Force (#9) is going in the opposite direction, rising up the class ladder since the claim by Carlos David. He’s handled dirt routes in the past, but I just wonder if he quite classes up with the dropdowns in here. My top pick is Bossmakinbossmoves (#11). This closer is obviously going to need some pace to develop, but there are a few speeds who figure to set an honest pace and I trust in Flavien Prat to work out a trip. I don’t think he’s run quite as badly as it might seem in some of his recent starts, since he was hindered by a rail bias on Feb. 4, and a speed bias on Mar. 30. He returns from a brief freshening and gets back to a distance that has suited him in the past. He also would appreciate any moisture in the surface, since he appears to move up on wet tracks.
Fair Value:
#11 BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
This high-level allowance optional claimer could very well be a stakes event given the quality from top to bottom. The morning line favorite Blazing Sevens (#7) is actually dropping out of a Grade 1 contest in the Met Mile, where he checked in a disappointing sixth. Perhaps moving back down into allowance company will get him back on track, but I’m still not fully convinced that this horse is fully deserving of his reputation. He obviously ran well in the Preakness, but he wasn’t meeting the best version of National Treasure that day. I haven’t been that impressed with anything he’s done since then, and think others are more appealing at bigger prices. I have similar reservations about Rocket Can (#6), another 4-year-old who raced through some Derby preps last season. He got his 2024 campaign started off the right way with a victory at Oaklawn in March, but he then went to the sidelines again and is now catching a much tougher field in his return. I think he needs to improve to win here, and his name recognition could drive his price down. Film Star (#3) had so much success after getting claimed by Linda Rice last year, finishing in the exacta in 8 consecutive starts for this barn, including 3 strong efforts at the Spa last summer. He tailed off at the end of last year, but he probably just needed a break. We’ve seen Linda Rice have success this year with horses returning from similar layoffs, and he drew well inside with speed. His cause is also helped by the scratch of Laughing Boy, and that makes me want to ugprade him.. Classic Catch (#9) exits a series of races in Kentucky since returning as a 4-year-old. He hasn’t won any of those starts, but I think he’s run better than it appears each time. He was wide against a rail bias on Apr. 13, then was always out of position on May 11, hitting his best stride too late. He certainly should have won last time, but he got shuffled back inside approaching the quarter pole, losing momentum before rallying to just miss. He relishes the distance, but I'm a little concerned about the pace scenario after the scratch. My top pick is the other Chad Brown trainee Artorius (#4). Perhaps he’s never going to fulfill the potential from his 3-year-old season, when he quickly rose to prominence ahead of that year’s Travers. He returned for just two starts last year, running third in a similar spot at Saratoga before again going to the sidelines. His three starts since coming back from another layoff this year may not look that appealing on paper, but I think he’s run better than it might appear. He didn’t get the best trip behind Blazing Sevens three back, having to alter course to find room in upper stretch. He then overcame a very slow pace two back, winning far more comfortably than the margin would suggest. He obviously disappointed in the Salvator Mile, but he never had good position after a poor start in another slow-paced affair. I like this distance for him, and he may finally be a fair price in such a competitive field.
Fair Value:
#4 ARTORIUS, at 5-1 or greater
#3 FILM STAR, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 10
The top two finishers from the Astoria are back in the Schuylerville, Saratoga’s traditional opening day feature. However, the waters get much deeper for both Whatintheliteral (#8) and Aoraki (#1). The former used her experience as an advantage to upset that stakes last month, getting to the lead and gamely fending off her rival. Yet she lacks the upside of some others in this field, and almost surely has to run faster to beat this group. Aoraki is a little more appealing, since she has worked well since that race, going slightly better in company with Sanford contender Three Echoes in her most recent drill. I still prefer a few of the recent debut winners. Complexion (#5) could attract the most support among those. This half-sister to Jack Christopher looks like a miniature version of that Grade 1 winning sibling. She showed excellent early speed to overcome a slight stumble at the start of her debut, winning in gate-to-wire fashion. However, she did get away with some pretty soft fractions that day, setting a slow pace before sprinting home. She obviously has talent, but I’m worried about her dealing with a more competitive pace scenario here. Sherbini (#3) and Carmen’s Candy Jar (#6) are appealing for the sheer fact that they showed the ability to pass horses in their respective debuts. Sherbini is a shorter price on my morning line, but may drift up from there. She didn’t attract that much support on debut but nevertheless ran a professional race, closing from fourth to win going away. That was an auction restricted maiden, but her 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure is one of the fastest numbers in this field. Carmen’s Candy Jar also showed favorable attributes on debut, rating in a pocket before splitting horses in the stretch. She has to run faster while also returning on just 18 days’ rest. My top pick is Churchill debut winner Viggiedal (#10). Like Complexion, she didn’t have to set particularly fast fractions on the front end, but the speed she showed appeared to come very easily to her. She traveled well to upper stretch and then found another gear when asked for run, flying through her last eighth in 11.82 seconds before galloping out with excellent energy. I like that she’s drawn outside of her main pace rivals, so she figures to get an outside pressing trip, as depicted on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. This daughter of hot freshman sire Vekoma has good length to her stride for such a young 2-year-old, so I don’t foresee her having an issue with the added distance.
Fair Value:
#10 VIGGIEDAL, at 5-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: Cancelled
Race 2: 4 - 10 - 1A - 11
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 5 - 13 - 9 - 12
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 7 - 14
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 16 - 12 - 1 - 10
Race 10: 10 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 11: 2 - 9 - 7 - 5
Race 12: 3 - 5 - 1 - 16
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Excellent Timing (#1A) is now the lone representative from the Michael Dubb entry. He can obviously win, but he’s a proven quitter who probably doesn’t want to run a step beyond 6 furlongs, if even that far, at this stage of his career. He's going to be a very short price after scratches, and there is some other speed in here to keep him honest up front. Dangerous Ride (#11) is a contender on the turnback in distance, but he was pretty bad last time and I don't fully trust him to regain his form for a new barn. This race now becomes a little easier for a horse like Market Alert (#10), who has been in great form, just competing in slightly softer spots. He gets the distance and has handled wet tracks before. My top pick is Nolo Contesto (#4), who is another that needs to round back into top form. Yet I think his most recent start off a brief layoff for Fernando Abreu was a step in the right direction. That race was dominated by two speeds and this 8-year-old was actually running on gamely at the end to just miss second. He tailed off for David Jacobson at the end of last year and then tried a series of turf races, which don’t really suit him. He put in a strong effort in his return to dirt back on Dec. 9 and now he’s finally putting races back-to-back for the first time since then.
Fair Value:
#4 NOLO CONTESTO, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
The scratch of Antonio of Venice reduces my enthusiasm for this race, but it also makes it a much less favorable spot for his main rival Doc Sullivan (#4). He settled for second behind Antonio of Venice when they met April 14. He was hitting his best stride too late that day, doing himself no favors by lugging in behind the leader when launching his run in upper stretch. That’s been a consistent problem for him, as he has a tendency to gravitate toward the rail in the stretch. That almost worked against him last time when he again lugged in behind tiring runners in upper stretch, but he was able to find a seam inside and rally to victory. This horse has real talent, but he may be best going slightly farther than this seven furlongs. The altered pace scenario now significantly favors Grand Opening (#5), who was unable to make the lead over Antonio of Venice when they met in the Times Square, but he was making his career debut that day in a very ambitious spot. He got bumped away from the gate and was ridden passively to rate in behind the winner. He actually ran on well thereafter, despite spending much of his trip in tight quarters down inside. He subsequently broke more sharply when beating maiden company in his second start at Pimlico. He registered a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which matches the best number Antonio of Venice has earned. This time he’s drawn outside of that main rival, and I would imagine the connections will look to be more aggressive here. I believe he’s as talented as anyone in this field, and he may now be ready to show it against this level of competition.
Fair Value:
#5 GRAND OPENING, at 7-5 or greater
RACE 4
The key to this N1X allowance for NY-breds is Speightful Lily (#6), who was so impressive winning her debut at Aqueduct back in January. She wasn’t beating much of a field that day, but it doesn’t matter when you draw off by nearly 15 lengths. That said, the 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned wasn’t quite as high as some other numbers assigned to the race, knocked down due to the slow pace, and I think the lower number has proven correct based on all the runbacks. She obviously disappointed last time as the 3-10 favorite, but perhaps she didn’t really want to go a mile. I still think that effort might be closer to her true ability, and didn’t want to settle for a short price while acknowledging she’s the one to beat. I’m not sure what to do with her main rival Cap Ferrat (#5), who ships up from Gulfstream for the always dangerous Saffie Joseph. She had to work hard for that victory but earned 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure that stands up to some scrutiny. She could play out as the early speed, but you have to imagine Speightful Lily will get amore aggressive ride this time. With this race being 7 furlongs, I do think there’s a chance it could come apart if those two hook up. Mommasgottagun (#7) obviously has to get faster, but she’s been green in both starts. She obviously needed her debut, like so many Linda Rice first time starters, but was running on belatedly when she finally got into the clear. Then last time she actually traveled well behind horses taking kickback but still never had great position until she found room inside in the stretch. I like the way she’s finished both times and think she can run a faster race here if she finally puts it all together. The price should be generous on a filly with upside.
Fair Value:
#7 MOMMASGOTTAGUN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
With this race coming off the turf, I still have some interest in the horses could stay in for dirt. Big Ego (#9) will attract most of the support as he drops in class. However, I actually thought this horse would appreciate turf, and I don’t love the way he’s been finishing off his dirt races. The class relief will benefit him, but I want to explore other options. Mama’s Middie (#13) makes some sense as he also drops out of maiden special weight company. He stayed on for second in his lone start going a mile last fall, but I’m not convinced that he really wants this distance. Mike Maker does seem to do well in these off the turf events, so I could use this horse as well as his stablemate Unaudited (#12). My top pick is actually the horse that I had picked for the turf as well. Az U Chase Me (#5) has run his best speed figures on turf and synthetic, but I think his dirt efforts are actually better than they look. He clearly needed his dirt debut here last summer, and actually put in a strong late run to get up for third against a solid field when he got back on dirt in November of last year. His only dirt effort since then came in an open company race at Gulfstream over the winter when he was badly overmatched by superior rivals. I don’t mind him getting back on this surface. He actually has more of a dirt pedigree, and goes out for a barn whose horses have been running well as of late.
Fair Value:
#5 AZ U CHASE ME, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 6
I could see Drake’s Passage (#2) going off at a pretty short price in this Commentator, having paired up two fast speed figures in his recent starts and now racing second off a layoff. He’s returning to the site of his Albany victory going this same distance, so he obviously handles this situation. However, he hasn’t won since then despite going off at short prices in all of his recent races. Perhaps getting back out to two turns will really benefit him, but I’m not convinced that he has as great an edge over this field as his price might suggest. He also has shown himself to prefer fast going, and he'll get a wet track today. There are several horses in this race that I don’t want at all, so it’s easy for me to narrow down the alternatives. My top pick is Sheriff Bianco (#1). Is there anything this horse can’t do? He was obviously a decent turf horse, but he’s really blossomed on dirt for Linda Rice. He doesn’t seem to have a distance preference, running competitively going short and long. I doubted his ability to get the 9 furlongs in the Empire Classic last year, but he ran well for second behind the talented Straight Arrow. He also put forth one of his best performances in this race last year, albeit going one turn at Belmont. He’s drawn the rail with tactical speed and I could see Jose Lezcano trying to wire this group, especially after the scratch of main pace rival Olympic Dreams.
Fair Value:
#1 SHERIFF BIANCO, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 11
This Bouwerie is one of the most confusing races of the day, since all of these fillies have some serious questions to answer. Landed (#7) will probably go favored after beating open company last time at Keeneland, though I thought she had all the best of it from a trip standpoint, controlling up front in a race where the entire field was bunched. She obviously ran well behind My Mane Squeeze in the Maddie May, but I’m not convinced that turning back to 7 furlongs necessarily benefits her. La Banquera (#5) is a wild card as she steps up off a debut victory at 20-1 odds. There doesn’t appear to be anything fluky about that performance, as she contested a fast pace and beat a well-meant Bill Mott second time starter. Yet she is now facing a tougher field and will have to contend with other speed. I wonder if Bernietakescharge (#9) can bounce back to form. She looked so good finishing second to My Mane Squeeze in the Franklin Square back in January, earning a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She hasn’t come close to that number since, but you can make some mild excuses for her. Switching back to dirt suits her, and 7 furlongs may be her ideal distance. My top pick is Tricky Temper (#2). She’s coming in off a layoff, but she appears to be training well up in Saratoga for Jeremiah Englehart. She showed talent as a 2-year-old, and ran better than it might appear in the Matron when encountering significant trouble at the quarter pole. She beat some decent rivals in the Key Cents, and it seemed like something might have gone wrong in the Franklin Square last time, since she didn’t work for months after that. Now she’s coming in as a fresh horse and should get some pace to close into with Joel Rosario taking over the reins.
Fair Value:
#2 TRICKY TEMPER, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 11 - 1 - 7 - 12
Race 9: 10 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 10: 3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 11: 7 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 12: 8 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 13: 12 - 10 - 6 - 4
Race 14: 9 - 11 - 2 - 6
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1: #4 SUERTE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 2: #4 STORM MIAMI, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4: #4 ACCRETIVE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7: #4 SOUL OF AN ANGEL, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8: #11 MAXIMUS MERIDIUS, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 9: #10 ALOGON, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 10: #3 POST TIME, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 11: #7 NATIONS PRIDE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 12: #8 HONOR MARIE, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 13: #12 ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 14: #9 CAPTURE THE FLAG, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 3: 6 - 9 - 11 - 5
Race 4: 11 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 5: 12 - 11 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 10 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 8: 1A - 12 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 10: 2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 11: 11 - 13 - 5 - 3
Race 12: 6 - 3 - 9 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
It feels like there could be some buzz around a couple of first time starters in this opener. Trulli Warrior (#1) sports a very fast gate workout last week at Belmont, and those back-to-back gate drills coming into this race are usually a sign that he’s sending out a live one. I prefer him to his uncoupled stablemate, but I am a little concerned that he’s breaking from the rail going 7 furlongs with a pedigree to go longer. Clever Mischief (#7) is the other one that I’m expecting to attract support. He’s been working competitively in the morning with some pretty good horses, working well with New York-bred winner Saint Gaudens on May 25 before working holding his own against Tuscan Gold, who was third in the Louisiana Derby. This horse is from a strong female family, the dam being a half-sister to multiple stakes winners Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. Yet I wanted to side with experience in this spot. Commander of Truth (#5) is the other Chad Brown horse, and he merits respect for finishing third behind his promising stablemate Unmatched Wisdom last time. He strikes me as a horse that may appreciate this turnback in distance, and I’m viewing him as a contender. My top pick is Pentathlon (#3). We haven’t seen this horse since last fall, but he competed in some pretty tough maiden special weight events during his 2-year-old season. He ran into the likes of Just Steel and Locked on debut, and then showed real progression when stretched out to a mile for his second start, won by subsequent stakes winner Drum Roll Please. I don’t mind him starting up against at 7 furlongs, and think he still has plenty of upside returning as a 3-year-old.
Fair Value:
#3 PENTATHLON, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 4
This starter allowance early on Friday is one of the most wide open races on a fantastic card. Lucency (#9) and Debate (#8) could vie for favoritism after finishing second and third, respectively, in a similar spot at Aqueduct in early May. However, neither one is especially formidable. Lucency had no excuse to lose last time after getting a great trip, and now has to hold his form for a low-profile barn. Debate will appreciate this turnback, but has still been a mild disappointment since the claim by Linda Rice. A couple of key speeds have scratched out of this race, which makes me more interested in Notah (#4), who was unable to make the lead breaking from the rail last time. He was off a step slow and tried to rush up before settling into a stalking trip. That pace was pretty fast and he did well to battle on for second in a race from which the first and third-place finishers have both returned to run well. This race now doesn't set up quite as well for Proven Hope (#5), who has been in career-best form since switching into the barn of Ed Barker. He’s been racing over longer distances recently, but probably found the 1 1/8 miles to be a little too far last time, especially after going four wide around both turns. He figures to save more ground with Trevor McCarthy taking over. My top pick is Leftembhind (#11), who might be a little more adaptable from a pace standpoint. This gelding took a big step forward at Saratoga last summer, following up his maiden victory with a couple of significantly improved speed figures against allowance foes. He continued his rise on the turf, getting elevated to second in a statebred allowance when mildly affected by some stretch traffic last fall. He concluded his season back on dirt, missing by less than a length going this distance despite racing five wide and trying to close into a slow pace. He came off a layoff last time and got a terrible trip on the turf, again compromised by a dawdling pace while going four wide around both turns. He’s better than those recent results indicate, and I believe he can continue his progression here. He thrived up in Saratoga last year, and shows a bullet workout for the return to dirt.
Fair Value:
#11 LEFTEMBEHIND, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
It’s unclear if ML favorite Clear the Air (#3) will run here or in a stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday. He’s obviously a contender if he lands in this spot, having run extremely well in his turf victory at Keeneland two back. He attacked a fast pace that day and did well to hold on late. I wasn’t as thrilled with his most recent effort at Churchill, but he is now drawn well towards the inside. I would prefer him to the other horse who could take money, Mischievous Angel (#10). This lightly raced runner is 2-for-2 sprinting on turf, but both victories have come against weaker company than this, and now he’s getting a significant class test. I’m also not convinced he’s going to be as effective turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs. Script (#2) is an interesting prospect trying a turf sprint for the first time. He was entered for turf last time but still ran well going 5 furlongs on synthetic when that race was rained off. He hadn’t really been finishing off his two-turn races, so perhaps this shorter distance will benefit him. Yet I’m most interested in the two horses drawn in the far outside posts. Fluid Situation (#11) may appear to be slightly off form, but he’s just not as good on the dirt, and last time got the wrong trip, making an early move into a fast pace that came apart. He won at this level just three starts back with a performance that would make him competitive here, and he figures to be a generous price this time. My top pick is Senbei (#12), who ran quite well when he first got on turf in July of last year, nearly hanging on at 7 furlongs with a strong 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He then got a tough trip in his only other turf attempt last August, racing on the inside part of the Mellon turf course, which probably wasn’t the place to be, and then getting completely blocked in traffic through the stretch. I don’t care too much about the synthetic race last time, and now he's returning from a layoff getting back to what is likely his preferred surface.
Fair Value:
#12 SENBEI, at 9-2 or greater
#11 FLUID SITUATION, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 6
I spent as much time handicapping this race as I did any on this Friday card. There are just so many interesting things going on, so I really hope it stays on the turf. The obvious horse to beat is Spirit Prince (#6), who took 5 starts to break his maiden last year, but did so against stakes company and is proven against legitimate competition. However, now he’s returning from a layoff for Christophe Clement, who is just 25 for 153 (16%, $1.19 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years. I preferred some bigger prices. One to consider coming out of that same Central Park Stakes is Sanderson (#11), who was quickly making up ground along the inside through the stretch that day. He seemed like a horse that was really coming around at the end of last year, and now he makes his first start for Cherie DeVaux, who is 10 for 48 (21%, $4.17 ROI) off trainer switches over the last 5 years. Hunt Ball (#3) feels like a horse that’s headed in the right direction for Bill Mott, but this half-brother to Cody’s Wish has been popular with the bettors and I didn’t view him as a particularly clever option in this spot. I have a similar view of Army Officer (#9), who makes plenty of sense off that recent runner-up performance at Churchill Downs. Yet he got a very good trip and now isn’t drawn as well towards the outside. I actually prefer Tifareeh (#10) from that same spot. I’m never going to be too hard on horses for failing to run well over the Churchill turf course, and he lost some momentum when stuck in behind foes in upper stretch. I really liked his race two back where he was closing best of all behind some talented runners, including future G2 American Turf winner Trikari. I also think this one-mile distance will be right up his alley. My top pick is a bit more of a reach. Aleah Aleah (#2) obviously needs to improve, but he’s a horse that I’ve been waiting to see get a chance on the turf. He’s certainly bred for this surface, being a half-brother to G3-placed turfer Traipsing as well as turf winner Script. He’s steadily improved through his recent races. Yet what really makes him interesting here is his early speed. It doesn’t seem like there are too many frontrunners in this field, and inside posts tend to make horses with tactical speed very dangerous going a mile on the inner turf at Saratoga. Kendrick Carmouche will be aware of that and send him to the front, and he may take them a long way at a big price.
Fair Value:
#2 ALEAH ALEAH, at 10-1 or greater
#10 TIFAREEH, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 7
I’m committed to taking a shot against heavy favorite Munnys Gold (#4) as she returns from a layoff. This filly was absolutely brilliant in a couple of races early in her career, but she was a mild disappointment thereafter, losing the Eight Belles at a short price before failing to capitalize on her return to sprinting in the Test. Now she returns from a layoff, and I think it’s worth remembering that she wasn’t at her very best when she came off a layoff last season to beat an overmatched field in Florida. Her workouts for this return have been slow and steady, not looking flashy at all in the mornings. I also find it odd that Pletcher is wasting a start on this N1X allowance, which she is technically eligible for despite being a 3-time winner, when there are sprint stakes that would seemingly fit her. I’m skeptical she’s going to be bounce back to form, and I want to look elsewhere. I think the most logical alternative is Roswell (#3), who has shown the ability to rate and pass horses, which is a valuable asset in a race loaded with early speed. She just gave me the impression that the added distance wasn’t helping last time when she hung in the late stages, so I like this turnback to 6 furlongs. I was considering both Wesley Ward trainees in here, and I found it interesting that John Velazquez, who rode Sam’s Treasure (#8) and Kehoe Beach (#5) lands on the latter filly. Then I watched their May 26 workout in company together, and Kehoe Beach was clearly best over Sam’s Treasure. Perhaps that won’t translate to the afternoon, but the more I looked at Kehoe Beach, the more I liked her. She set an extremely fast pace before fading on debut at Turfway, and she showed last time that she’s simply a better dirt horse. That 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her dangerous here, and she might play out as the speed of the speed at a square price.
Fair Value:
#5 KEHOE BEACH, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 10
There’s no doubt that Mission of Joy (#1) and Evvie Jets (#5) have some credentials, but it does appear that both of them are in a little tough against this quintet of Chad Brown trainees. Yet deciphering which of those Brown runners will in is still a real puzzle. The most accomplished horse in here among them is clearly Gina Romantica (#3), a multiple Grade 1 winner who only lost by a length in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. Her return from the layoff in the Jenny Wiley was pretty disappointing, especially considering that it was at Keeneland where she’s had most of her success. Yet the pace of that affair just didn’t suit her, and she figures to be sharper for this race. Whitebeam (#7) is another looking to bounce back to Grade 1 form, having lost her three races since upsetting In Italian in last summer’s Diana. Her First Lady wasn’t a good effort, but she never seemed to settle that day. I actually thought she ran well in defeat in both starts since then, chasing a fast pace in the Matriarch before getting involved in an early duel in the Beaugay off a layoff last time. She also has a right to move forward here, and I’m not sure she’s going to be quite as short as I have her on the ML. Chili Flag (#6) and Coppice (#4) finished just a neck apart in the Distaff Turf Mile going this distance on Derby day. I thought both got great setups in a race that completely fell apart late, with Coppice getting an especially savvy ride from Frankie Dettori, who saved ground while making the late run. That said, I still think it’s fair to view Coppice as the one with more upside as she makes her second U.S. start, whereas Chili Flag may have already reached her ceiling. There also isn’t much pace signed on here, and Coppice might possess a little more tactical speed. My top pick is a total “last time was the time” type, but I had Beaute Cachee (#2) last time so I don’t feel too bad about going back to her here. She was somewhat fortunate in the Jenny Wiley, allowed to get away with a slow pace before sprinting home. Yet I’ll reiterate the case I made for her heading into that last race. She had steadily improved last season, and ran better than it might appear in the Matriarch, getting cut off in upper stretch before coming on again late. She’s been a horse who showed a tendency to get very headstrong in her races last year, so sending her to the front last time was the perfect solution. It allowed her to relax, and she displayed a more potent finish. There are other potential speeds in here, but I don’t see why Chad Brown would change the plan. She figures to go to the lead again, and I actually like her going a little shorter. She won’t be 25-1 this time, but I still think her price is likely to be more than fair.
Fair Value:
#2 BEAUTE CACHEE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 11
This New York is the most fascinating race of the day from a handicapping perspective. You can make a valid case for nearly every horse in this field. Given the wide open nature of the field, I don’t want to settle for a short price on English Rose (#2). This filly is obviously one of the most likely winners of this race, but these Godolphin/Appleby runners often get overbet, and I think she looks a little better than she is based on a rail-skimming trip in the Jenny Wiley last time. She did fight restraint during the early part of that race, but was just following the winner home late. It’s unclear if she gets better with added ground, and I wanted to look elsewhere for value. Didia (#3) is a viable alternative. The difference between she and the favorite last time might have just come down to ground loss. She’s handled this distance before, and actually ran a lot better than it might appear in the Breeders’ Cup at the end of her 2023 campaign. I’m a little against the other likely favorite War Like Goddess (#10), who missed a planned start to her campaign at Keeneland, and might just be getting some experience going a distance that is too short for her. I have three horses that really interest me from a value standpoint in this spot. The shortest price among them is probably American Sonja (#5), who returns to the U.S. after finishing second in the Saratoga Oaks here last summer. I think she’s run well in almost all of her European starts, and she arguably took a step forward in her 4-year-old debut last time, impressively defeating a solid field in France. She’s handy enough to work out a stalking trip, and goes out for a dangerous barn. Surprisingly (#13) figures to get dismissed here due to the wide draw and poor result last time. Yet she never was in great position early in that Modesty and was stymied in traffic at a critical point in upper stretch. Both of her prior performances for Todd Pletcher were good, including a narrow loss to Didia, who will be a much shorter price in this spot. Flavien Prat is almost guaranteed to give her a better ride this time, and I think she can rebound at a price. My top pick is Star Fortress (#11). This mare was so impressive winning her U.S. debut in the Cardinal last year, earning a massive 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet give in the ground likely had a lot to do with that win, bringing out her stamina over a demanding course. She only beat 3 rivals home over the course of her next 3 starts, but she had excuses in all of those races. She refused to settle and got a wide trip in the Pegasus, then was pace-compromised in the Hillsborough and Jenny Wiley. They finally tried to make use of that ample stamina, stretching her out to 11 furlongs last time, and it got her back on track. Yet what I really liked about that narrow loss in the Sheepshead Bay is that she settled better and produced a sprint finish into an extremely slow pace. She’s stepping up against tougher this time, but the potential is there to compete at this level and she’s going to be another generous price.
Fair Value:
#11 STAR FORTRESS, at 10-1 or greater
#13 SURPRISINGLY, at 12-1 or greater
RACE 12
They key question heading into this Acorn is how much the sloppy track influenced the result of the Kentucky Oaks. Perhaps Thorpedo Anna (#9) is actually just lengths better than everyone else in this division. Yet I also think it’s possible that she just really handled the wet surface at Churchill last time in a race where others clearly struggled with the going. She set legitimate fractions up front, but also benefited from staying out of the kickback. The good news for Thorpedo Anna is that it’s not as if that’s her only strong effort. She’s run well in every start, and had a legitimate excuse in her lone loss last year. I just don’t know how much of an advantage she really has over this field, and I’m not willing to take a short price on her. Just F Y I (#4) might seem like the most logical alternative to turn the tables, but it’s not like she had any major trouble in the Kentucky Oaks. She was simply second best that day. The argument for her is that she was just making her second start off the layoff after missing a planned seasonal debut. Now she’s had those two races under her belt and might be ready for a step forward. I think there’s something to that, but I also don’t think she’s going to be that enticing a price. The horse that clearly hated the racetrack in the Oaks is Leslie’s Rose (#3). Her performance was so poor that it’s hard to just blame the post position or the added distance. She showed that she belongs at this level in the Ashland, earning the same 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Thorpedo Anna got for her Oaks victory. It’s a good sign that she’s coming back in this spot, and her most recent workout suggests she’s ready to rebound. My top pick is Where’s My Ring (#6). Nothing went right for her in the Kentucky Oaks. She hopped at the start and got rank while racing in heavy traffic into the clubhouse turn. When she finally got into a rhythm heading into the far turn, she then took a hard bump at the three-eighths pole and had to steady. She still never threw in the towel despite getting beaten a long way. She had been in great form coming into that start, decisively winning the Gazelle by 4 lengths. That form was flattered when Regulatory Risk was third in the Oaks. Distance is no concern for this filly, and I think she’s going to bounce back with a better trip.
Fair Value:
#6 WHERE'S MY RING, at 5-1 or greater
Gambling Problems? The New York Racing Association encourages responsible wagering. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you care about, help is available 24 hours a day. Scan here to talk with someone now about your gambling. Or call toll-free 1-877-8-HOPE-NY.
Privacy Policy | Ethics | About NYRA | Careers | Do Not Sell My Information