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Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 01 15 PM (Jul 9)
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by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 9 - 8
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 9 - 8
Race 6: 2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 1A - 6
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 10 - 2
RACE 5: ANOTHER (#5)
The horse to beat is probably C C Rider, who has simply faced tougher company in most of his turf starts. He earned a series of speed figures last summer that would make him pretty tough to beat were he to repeat any of them here. The problem is that he’s never won on turf, and he failed to get involved in either of his starts on the NYRA circuit last year. I haven’t been that impressed by this horse’s finishing ability, and I’d rather go elsewhere if he’s a short price. I prefer Another – Another, the horse, that is. At first glance his 2019 form looks pretty spotty. He went the wrong way for Bill Mott and has struggled to break through while dropping back into claiming company for the new connections. Yet there are significant excuses to be made for him. He had no chance in that salty November 9 allowance at Aqueduct last year when chasing the pace while racing wide. He dropped down to this level to conclude his 2019 campaign, and he clearly should have won that day. Javier Castellano got him trapped in behind horses at the quarter pole and he just couldn’t extract him from that predicament until it was too late. Another then made one start over the winter at Gulfstream, and he was again the victim of a troubled trip. His journey to the top of the stretch was relatively smooth, but horses fanned out across the track for the drive to the wire and Tyler Gaffalione was forced to steady him in heavy traffic for most of the last furlong. Now he’s back in the care of Mertkan Kantarmaci and he’s realistically placed for this return to the NYRA circuit. If Jose Lezcano can work out a fair trip for him this time, he’s going to be difficult for this field to beat. I could also use a horse like War Film. He would be a real threat to win here based on his May 24 effort at Churchill, and he was compromised by a slow pace last time. I’m not particularly interested in the horses exiting the $50,000 claimer at Belmont on June 14, though I could use Riendo underneath at a big price.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 3,4,6,8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 3,9 with 3,4,6,7,8,9
RACE 6: POP A CHOC (#2)
At first glance, it seems like there’s a lot to like about morning line favorite Back Channel. She showed some ability in her debut for Linda Rice, earning one of the highest speed figures in this field, and runners for this barn are supposed to take a massive step forward second time out. If this filly does so, she’s simply going to beat this field. Yet it all just seems a little too obvious – and you’re not going to make money betting the races if you settle for the obvious. I think it’s necessary to take a closer look at Back Channel’s debut performance. She attracted no tote support that day, so it’s not as if much was expected of her. Let’s also remember that she was facing an awful field outside of the heavily-favored winner Primacy, so she was always going to be second by default. She did earn a solid speed figure, but unlike the winner, who closed from last, Back Channel had all the best of it setting a slow pace before failing to kick on in the stretch. She seems decent, but I don’t view her as some kind of formidable favorite in this race. I’m actually more interested in the other filly likely to attract support, Orsay. Let’s not sugarcoat this: She was a massive disappointment as a 2-year-old. The word was out about her prior to her debut at Belmont, having already been scratched as the favorite during the Saratoga meet after acting up. Yet she was dull in that initial start on dirt, unable to even hang on for second after chasing the pace. Chad Brown tried turf despite the fact that she doesn’t possess much damside turf pedigree, but that was a disaster. Now she’s back in a dirt sprint and maybe she is just a trap. Yet Chad Brown has a knack for figuring out these difficult fillies, and she does seem to be training better than ever for this return to the races. I’ll use both of these short prices, but I want to go in a different direction in what I think is a wide open race. My top pick is Pop a Choc. This filly started twice on the turf down at Gulfstream. Her first start was encouraging and then she took a step backwards last time. In both of those races she ran like a horse that doesn’t really possess the turn of foot necessary to compete on grass, so this surface switch is intriguing. After all, she is by Bernardini and her dam was a stakes-quality dirt horse. She is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Airoforce, but even that sibling won the Kentucky Jockey Club on dirt. Some may view this as a move of desperation, but Mark Casse actually has solid stats with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 12 for 47 (25%, $2.31 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt sprints, excluding off-the-turf races.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6,7,10
RACE 7: WILL SING FOR WINE (#7)
No Word is a deserving favorite. A repeat of his last performance simply makes him the horse to beat. He was facing a much tougher field of mixed-age N1X rivals last time and is now back with straight 3-year-olds. The winner of that last race, Value Engineering, seems like a 4-year-old that could potentially have stakes in his future, and No Word stayed on well to chase him home. He handled the 1 1/4 miles that day, but a slight cutback shouldn’t hinder him one bit. This colt got into some trouble in the stretch of the Pilgrim last year, or else he might have had a graded stakes placing on his résumé. The fact of the matter is that his rivals need to step up their game if they’re going to beat him. One horse who certainly has the upside to do so is On Base. After a green debut, he was far more professional with blinkers second time out at Tampa, displaying improved early speed while seamlessly working his way into contention at the quarter pole. Daniel Centeno had to get after him in upper stretch to finish the job, but this colt leveled off nicely in the last eighth once he was put to the test. He has now had an additional four months to mature as he tries winners for the first time. Distance won’t be an issue, as he’s already gone this far. He does need to get a little faster to beat these, but comes in with more upside than anyone else and should give a good account of himself. I’d consider him as an alternative if he’s a square price, but my top pick is a horse trying the turf for the first time. Will Sing for Wine won a salty maiden event at Aqueduct back in March, but disappointed in his first try against winners last time when unfortunate to land in a tough spot behind the likes of Tapit to Win and Mystic Guide. Now Bill Mott tries turf with him, and there are some reasons to be optimistic about this surface switch. While his dam was a dirt horse, and a very good one, she has produced one minor turf winner. More convincingly, Will Take Charge has blossomed into a solid turf influence, winning with 13% of his turf route starters. He would need to improve on this surface to beat a field of this quality, but he has the tactical speed to get into a good position in a race where trips will be of the utmost importance.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 1,2,3,4,6
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 8 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 2 - 10
Race 5: 7 - 9 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 8 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 2 - 7 - 10 - 6
Race 10: 11 - 8 - 6 - 7
RACE 6: RIKEN (#6)
Fevola goes out for Chad Brown and comes off an impressive maiden score, so he’s going to take plenty of money in this spot. He probably deserves the support, as he comes into this race with significant upside. He wasn’t quite ready for his debut, but he looked like a different horse second time out, destroying an overmatched group in a powerful effort. He’s stepping up in class off the layoff, but he seems to be training well for his return. The one knock is that Chad Brown is just 7 for 31 (23%, $1.07 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Mister Bobby makes sense as an alternative. He came to hand over the winter at Aqueduct, picking up some checks at this level. He ever got involved over a sloppy track on Jan. 4 but his surrounding efforts are all pretty solid and would put him right in the mix if he was able to return in the same form. The obvious hurdle is the layoff, but H. James Bond is a solid 15 for 79 (19%, $2.44 ROI) off layoffs of 90 to 180 days over the past 5 years. I’m using both of these prominently, but I want to go with the speed of the speed Riken. This horse got dismissed at 25-1 last time in an unusually tough $20,000 conditioned claimer which featured a few key class droppers. He busted out of the gate, laid down some very fast fractions, and just never looked back, earning a career-best 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. It seems like he’s finally found his niche as a front-running dirt sprinter. There’s other speed in here, but they won’t be able to keep up with him if apprentice Luis Cardenas uses the same strategy as last time. He’s stepping up in class, but is not one to be taken lightly in his current form.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 7: SHE’S GOT YOU (#8)
This is a high-quality allowance race with a very European flavor. The five major players all began their careers overseas, and one of those is making her North American debut in this spot. The two runners likely to vie for favoritism are Stone Tornado and Madita. The former was part of an entry with winner Clara Peeters when she made her U.S. debut in June and she arguably ran the best race in that spot. She could never really get cover breaking from an outside post and ultimately made an early push to take the lead at the quarter pole in a race where the horse making the final move got the money. Stone Tornado was successful going a flat mile over in Europe, so she figures to appreciate the stretch-out in distance. Madita has been a bit of an enigma since coming to this country. She ran pretty well at Saratoga last year but then completely fell apart in her 2019 finale. Yet she looked like a completely different horse in her 5-year-old debut last time, destroying a field a the N1X level. This is a tougher spot, but she had shown class in Germany last year and may have just turned the corner. I’m using both of these prominently, but there are others to consider. Both fillies drawn towards the outside, She’s Got You and Chaleur, actually faced off in a pair of stakes in England in late 2019. Chaleur has the benefit of having made a start in this country, but I’m not sure how strong that effort was given that the race was won by a massive longshot. She also could appreciate the slight cutback in distance since the 1 1/8 miles off the layoff may have really tested her stamina. I’m using her, but my top pick is her rival She’s Got You. This filly is now in the barn of Chad Brown and certainly possesses the class to beat a field like this based on her British form. In my opinion, she ran better than Chaleur in Europe and she’s certainly bred to have a nice future. By top sire Kingman, she’s a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Tamarkuz and Group 1 winning turfer Without Parole. She seems to be training well for her stateside debut and I think she’s going to put forth a strong effort.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,6,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 5,6 with 5,6,7,9
RACE 9: DELAWARE (#2)
This is a stakes-quality allowance race, as most of the main contenders have actually been competitive in graded stakes in the past. The horse to beat is Front Run the Fed, but you have to wonder if he’s come back as the same horse as a 4-year-old after he disappointed as the 6-5 favorite in his 2020 debut at Churchill Downs. You could argue that he was a little out of position in the early going in a race where few runners made up ground, but he was still pretty dull through the stretch. Perhaps getting back to Belmont will help him, as he ran well going one-turn last year and he had already earned speed figures fast enough to beat this field when he was a 3-year-old. I’m using him prominently, but I wouldn’t want to accept a short price on him. Majestic Dunhill is perfectly logical as he returns at the same distance at which he nearly pulled off an upset in the First Defence last time. This horse is a 7-furlong specialist and doesn’t seem to mind whether he’s racing over turf or dirt. He just needs a little pace to close into and there doesn’t appear to be much of that in this field. That could also hinder Chewing Gum, who is a one-run deep closer. He got the setup he needed going 6 furlongs last time and beat a good horse in Sayyaaf at the N1X level. He’s stepping up in class off that race, but he has faced some classy horses on dirt in the past and should fit here. All of these horses will be on my tickets, but my top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Delaware. He didn’t run that well in his U.S. debut behind Majestic Dunhill, but I thought this trip didn’t quite work that day. He was a bit farther back in the early stages that you would have expected based on his European form, and then he could never quite get into the clear to build momentum through the stretch. Now he’s getting Lasix and adding blinkers, so it just feels like Chad Brown is acknowledging that this one probably needed that return race and now he’s getting serious. I liked this horse’s efforts in France at the end of last year and I think he’ll be dangerous here if he returns that more aggressive style.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 6,7,10
Trifecta: 2 with 7,10 with 3,4,5,6,7,10
RACE 10: MAJESTIC VIEW (#11)
Striking Causeway is the horse to beat based on his return performance last time. That was his turf debut and he clearly took to the surface, as he was just narrowly defeated after contesting a fast pace against a stronger field than he’s meeting here. I know that some others have earned comparable speed figures, but I thought Striking Causeway distinguished himself as a runner that’s ready to break through at this level. If he can shake loose from the other speeds early, I think he’ll be tough to run down. Sanctuary City looks like a logical rival for that foe based on his speed figures from last year, but I don’t think he was meeting a particularly strong field in his career debut. He will appreciate turning back off the layoff, but he’s a runner that probably looks better on paper than he actually is. I also could make a case for a horse like More Like It, who did have some traffic trouble in the late stages last time. He’s definitely on my tickets, but I wanted to get a bit more creative with a first time turfer. Majestic View doesn’t have conventional turf pedigree in the sense that his dam’s family hasn’t really produced any turf runners. Yet he’s a son of new sire Majestic City, who himself is sired by good turf influence City Zip. We haven’t seen too many of Majestic City’s progeny try the turf, but one of them, The Important One, absolutely loved the grass in her turf debut earlier this meet despite not having any damside pedigree either. Majestic View showed good speed first time out on dirt, contesting a fast pace that collapsed. He’s worked well since then and I think it’s interesting that Kimmel goes directly to turf. This horse did move a bit more like a turf horse in his work over the synthetic surface at OBS April last year (where he was an RNA for $95,000). I expect him to move forward with the surface switch.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,5,6,7,8
by David Aragona
Race 1: 8 - 12 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 1/1A - 3 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 9 - 10 - 5 - 12
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 9 - 1 - 3
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 10: 1 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 11: 4 - 6 - 1 - 7
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's FREE DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis and wagers for the races on this card.
RACE 2: CONVICTION TRADE (#4)
RACE 3: CENTER AISLE (#4)
RACE 5: ZOOMER (#8)
RACE 6: BASTET (#9)
RACE 7: DANTE'S FIRE (#4)
RACE 8: SEISMIC WAVE (#4)
RACE 9: VEKOMA (#2)
RACE 10: INSTILLED REGARD (#1)
RACE 11: MR. BUFF (#4)
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 10 - 11 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 3 - 10
Race 5: 6 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 11 - 12 - 6
Race 8: 2 - 1A - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 10 - 9 - 7 - 2
RACE 6: OVERJOYED (#1)
Spice Is Nice is obviously supposed to win this race if she gets back to the level of performance that we saw from her in her first couple of starts. She ran away from a field in her career debut like a filly that could have made an impact in the Kentucky Oaks. It was no disgrace losing to Tonalist’s Shape in the Davona Dale, but she then disappointed as one of the favorites in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. The obvious excuse for that performance is her trip, since she was shuffled back heading into the first turn and then was just always out of position behind a slow pace. I readily concede that she’s the most likely winner, but she’s going to be an awfully short price and I’m just a little skeptical that she’ll just seamlessly get back on track here. Her main rival appears to be Say Moi, but I have even less confidence in her at a short price. I know that she’s posted a pair of speed figures that make her good enough to win races at this level, but I didn’t love the field she beat at Churchill Downs last time. Furthermore, her dam was a confirmed sprinter and I’m not quite convinced that she’ll be as effective stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. I want to get a bit more creative in this race, and I’m very intrigued by the California shipper Overjoyed. Neil Drysdale doesn’t ship many runners to New York, but he is an eye-opening 7 for 13 (54%, $4.48 ROI) with all starters on the NYRA circuit over the past 5 years. Almost every starter in that sample was a turf horse, but I like this filly switching back to the dirt. She just got a little lost out there in her only dirt start and Mike Smith didn’t abuse her in the stretch. She improved after that, and she’s really bred to excel on the main track. She’s a half-sister to the multi-millionaire dirt router War Story, as well as Kentucky Oaks runner-up Land Over Sea. Furthermore, I really like the way this filly has been training over the dirt surfaces in California. It remains to be seen if she’s good enough to beat the two favorites, but I think she’s going to outrun her odds.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 5,6
RACE 8: YANKEE DIVISION (#2)
I don’t typically discuss races with coupled entries, but one member of the Rudy Rodriguez pair – Big Thicket – is likely to scratch and run on Sunday instead. The likely remaining entrant, Yankee Division, is particularly intriguing as he comes back at this level after basically getting eased in his return. If you’re willing to use the muddy track as an excuse for his dismal effort, he merits consideration against this group for the sole fact that he’s going to be loose on the early lead. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows him clearly in front in a situation favoring the early leader, as he’s quite simply facing a field full of plodders. While I can’t deny that his form prior to the layoff was a little inconsistent, he ran better than it appears in that Feb. 29 performance, as he contested a fast pace. It’s not like he'd be the first Midnight Lute to despise a muddy surface, so I expect him to rebound on fast going. The two main rivals, Danny California and Vintage Hollywood, both go out for Orlando Noda and are also coupled. Yet neither one is a particularly reliable win candidate despite possessing solid overall form. I think both could be around at the finish, but they just so often settle for minor awards. The other two individual betting interests that could attract some support both have some questions to answer. Six Percent ran some races last year that would make him competitive here, but Jimmy Jerkens just has mediocre statistics off trainer switches it’s difficult to improve upon the work of Brad Cox. Bourbon Bay looked like a runner that should easily advance through this level when he began his career, but his form has plateaued recently and I’m not added distance necessarily help him. I wouldn’t discount Dancers for Token at a price as he tries winner for the first time, but I think my top pick will be difficult for any of these to reel in.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 9: GETMOTHERAROSE (#3)
Morning line favorite Dalika is simply the horse to beat. She displayed her class facing some nice 3-year-old stakes foes last year, and her 4-year-old debut suggests that she has some added versatility. Turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs off the layoff seemed like a curious move by Al Stall, but this filly handled it with ease, making a strong late run from the back of the pack to win going away. She’s stepping up to face a tougher field here, but she’s beaten rivals of this quality in the past and she should get some pace ahead of her with a few key speeds in this field. Jonathan Thomas sends out a pair of runners in Bridlewood Cat and Escapade. The former tries turf for the first time without much pedigree for this surface. Escapade is a confirmed turf sprinter, but she has to improve slightly on her recent turf form to beat this field. She didn’t get the most comfortable trip at Tampa last time, but she flattened out late and now has to go 6 furlongs. I’ll use her, but I prefer some others. I’llhandalthecash makes plenty of sense as she makes her second start off the layoff. She was going to win her return at Churchill last time when she was totally knocked off stride in mid-stretch. Furthermore, her form from late last year was strong, as she had some trouble in a few starts, particularly on Nov. 23 at Aqueduct. I’m using her prominently, but I actually prefer the winner of that Aqueduct race, Getmotherarose. This Tom Bush filly went down to Gulfstream and put in a couple of excellent performances, overcoming a poor trip to be fourth in the South Beach before breaking through with a graded stakes triumph in the Honey Fox. She’s disappointed since then, but I think you can make some excuses for her. She got a little too rank in the opening stages of the Sand Springs, and then last time she clearly didn’t handle the yielding ground of the Intercontinental. Now she’s bad at 6 furlongs, a distance she has relished in the past, and she should get her preferred firm surface.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,8
Trifecta: 3 with 4,8 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 10: DETERMINED ONE (#10)
Adios Amigos is a deserving favorite in this spot. While he’s never hit the board on turf, all of his grass starts came against tougher maiden special weight foes last year. He earned some respectable speed figures in those races, and now he’s getting back to that surface second off a layoff after making a solid return on the dirt last time. If he takes any kind of step forward with the surface switch, he’s going to be difficult for this field to beat. Yet this is an interesting race with some potentially live price horses to consider. I’m not enamored with runners like Our Troubadour or Shandian, who both are coming off narrow losses at this level, so I want to look elsewhere. My top pick is Determined One as he gets back to turf. This horse ran deceptively well in his debut at Aqueduct last year, as he was off slowly and made some late progress against a better field. He faded badly in his second start on June 2, but that race was not run over a firm course, as listed. There was a torrential downpour during that race and this gelding clearly didn’t handle the going or the distance. He returned sprinting on dirt over the winter and showed some newfound early speed, nearly wiring that field. This is certainly a tougher spot than that, but I think he’s truly a turf horse who may have just found his niche going shorter. His pedigree supports that notion, since his dam has been a confirmed turf producer. If he can improve just slightly on that debut speed figure, he’s a player here at a price.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,7,9,11
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 6 - 11 - 2 - 4
RACE 1: CALIDAD (#6)
It was a little odd to see morning-line favorite Sharp Starr’s connections turn her back to six furlongs off the layoff, as she seems like the kind of filly that wants to route. She was outrun from the rail that day, threw her head about while maneuvering out of kickback, and flattened out in the late stages. Prior to the layoff back on Feb. 15, she made a strong late run to be second going seven furlongs, finishing like a horse that should want every bit of this one-mile trip. She didn’t earn a particularly high speed figure for that effort, but she has a right to do better now with the added time to mature. All of her half-siblings have been routers, topped by the talented Papa Shot. Furthermore, her trainer Horacio DePaz is 4 for 8 (50%, $5.37 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes over the past five years. She’s the horse to beat, but I think she faces a serious rival in fellow stretch-out Calidad. This filly’s debut back in March was very encouraging, as she was off a bit slowly but launched a sustained rally around the turn, chasing home a runaway winner while drawing well clear of the rest. She just looked a little rusty in her return last time, as she again lagged behind early but couldn’t make up much ground once she was steered into the clear late. This daughter of Quality Road has some size to her, so the added ground shouldn’t be an issue. Plus, her dam won routing on turf and the dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner West Hills Giant, who won over a variety of distances. Trainer Bruce Levine doesn’t have great stats in this situation, but this filly appears to have some ability. She’s my top pick, but I don’t want to discount the third major player La Kara Mia. She’s the wild card in this field as she makes her dirt debut after a failed attempt to sprint on turf first time out. She’s definitely bred for this surface being out of the champion dirt sprinter La Verdad, and trainer Linda Rice has excellent statistics with this move. It just remains to be seen if this filly has any real talent, and it’s not like you’re going to get much of a price with Irad Ortiz Jr. climbing aboard.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 3: BLACKJACK DAVEY (#1)
Four horses in this field exit the same June 7 race at this level, and the two who put forth the best efforts that day were Jade’s Dream and Microsecond. The former was sent off at 64-1, whereas Microsecond was bet down to 8-5 favoritism. Yet the Pletcher trainee disappointed as Jade’s Dream won their early duel before both were reeled in by Dancers for Token. Based solely on those performances, it would be difficult not to favor Jade’s Dream this time, though there is the possibility that the strong tote support and solid debut effort from Microsecond might lead some to believe that he is capable of better this time. I personally think Jade’s Dream is the horse to beat, and it should come as no major surprise that he improved last time given his excellent dam-side pedigree. He’s a half-brother to the versatile dirt route specialist Go Get the Basil, who also won over jumps, as well as allowance types Hot Splash, Regal Prince, and Ode to the Hunt. I’m using him prominently, but there’s an intriguing new face in this lineup that deserves respect. Blackjack Davey makes his second career start for trainer Linda Rice, which is one of her specialties. Specifically, over the past five years, Rice is 12 for 31 (39%, $2.31 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt. This horse just looked like your typically debut runner for this barn, as he was off slowly and green in the early stages before launching a mild late run. He’s certainly bred to do better than that as a full brother to stakes winner Blindwillie McTell and allowance type Duquesne Whistle. His pedigree is geared more toward sprinting, but both of those aforementioned siblings handled route distances and Rice usually places these horses where they truly belong second time out.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with ALL
RACE 5: MALARKEY (#8)
Stay Fond is the horse to beat as she makes her first start off the claim for Michael Miceli following a layoff. Based on her overall body of work, she’s just in a class above her rivals here, especially from a speed figure standpoint. However, she’s done her best work over route distances and now she’s being asked to go 7 furlongs off the layoff. She found 6 furlongs to be much too short for her last time, so it remains to be seen if she can handle this distance. Furthermore, as well as the Miceli barn has done over the past couple of seasons, he is just 3 for 28 (11%, $1.08 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years, and hasn’t won with any runner first off the claim during the past two years. I’m using her defensively, but I want to look elsewhere for my top selection. I prefer Malarkey. Linda Rice is often regarded as a trainer who doesn’t do well off layoffs, but the statistics tell a slightly different story. Malarkey has been off for just over 5 months, and Linda Rice is a solid 13 for 51 (25%, $2.56 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 180 days in dirt sprints during the past 5 years. I realize that Malarkey has made limited appearances recently, but her overall form isn’t as bad as it seems. She was ridden down to the worst dead rail we saw on the NYRA circuit in all of 2019 when she finished last on July 26 at Saratoga. Then when she returned in January, she found herself chasing the very fast Malibu Mischief in a race that fell apart in the late stages. She’s better than that, and I think she might find herself setting a fairly moderate early pace here given the general lack of speed in this field. She’s my top pick, and I would use her with the favorite, along with the improved Cotton Candy Cutie and the class-dropping My Last Million.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,6,7
RACE 6: LIFE CHANGER (#2)
Creed figures to be a heavy favorite as he attempts to follow up his impressive maiden triumph with another victory against winners. Unlike the other contenders coming off maiden wins, he’s already proven that he handles this distance, having drawn off impressively going this trip back on June 11, earning a formidable 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That type of speed figure is good enough to win most N1X allowance events, and none of his rivals have come close to achieving that kind of figure in their prior starts. The one caveat is that he achieved that victory over a sloppy track with a great trip, sitting off a quartet of embattled leaders before striking on the far turn. He may not get as much pace to close into this time, but there’s no denying that this promising son of Honor Code may possess real talent and have stakes in his future. I’m not against him, but I do think there’s a possibility that he could get overbet in this spot, and I’m somewhat intrigued by one of his rivals. Life Changer was a surprise winner of his debut at 12-1 odds back on June 6, showing early speed from his inside post position before gamely fending off the heavy favorite Dreams of Tomorrow in the last quarter-mile. He will have to improve on his 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure to upset Creed, but I liked what I saw from this runner in that appearance. He showed plenty of professionalism and determination as he dug in to turn away that late challenge, never letting Dreams of Tomorrow past him even on the gallop-out. He shouldn’t have any major issues with the added distance, given that he’s a son of Preakness winner Oxbow. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he should be all alone on the front end this time, as his Early Pace Rating is some 21 points higher than the next-best rating in the field. If jockey Joel Rosario can nurse him along up front and get him to show that same grit in the stretch, I think he could prove to be a worthy rival for Creed.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 1,3,4,8
RACE 8: WAR CANOE (#3)
If Fifty Five shows up with her top effort, she’s likely to win this Mount Vernon. However, her margin for error in these races has grown slimmer as she’s gotten older. She won all three of her starts against New York-bred stakes company last year, but she never did so by large margins and she may no longer be capable of earning the types of graded stakes-level speed figures that she had been achieving as a 4-year-old. Further complicating matters is the lack of pace in this year’s Mount Vernon. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a ‘No Speed’ scenario, which essentially means that none of the entrants in this race possess running styles that typically have them near the front of the pack. Therefore, every horse in this field may be somewhat out of its element from a trip standpoint. Fifty Five at least possesses some tactical speed, along with a turn of foot that could get her out of trouble. Yet she’s going to be a very heavy favorite – almost definitely odds-on – and I think this is a slightly more competitive race than it seems. I want to take a shot against her with her uncoupled Chad Brown-trained stablemate War Canoe. This 7-year-old mare would have to produce the best effort of her career to take down the favorite, but I think such a performance may be forthcoming. War Canoe was in career form when last seen at the end of 2019, losing a couple of decisions to Fifty Five before beating a solid open allowance field at Aqueduct. Yet what I find most attractive about her form from the end of last year is that she started showing vastly improved early speed in her races for Linda Rice. It was as if she her competitive spirit had been reignited as she was putting herself into races much earlier than in the past. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Pace Projector shows her on the lead here, and I think she could work out such a trip if Irad Ortiz lets her roll away from the gate. She appears to be training well into this race and I think the gap between these two Brown fillies may have narrowed just enough for War Canoe to cause the minor upset.
Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 1 with 4,5,6
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 7 - 8 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 10 - 6 - 11
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 4 - 9 - 6 - 1
RACE 4: FROSTED ROSE (#1)
Hurricane Hill will beat this field if he gets back to this November 11 effort, in which he finished third, earning a superior speed figure while facing a significantly better field. Yet it must be noted that he got a very good trip that day, saving ground over a rail-biased turf course on the turn before angling out in the stretch. Yet he was very dull in his next start at Gulfstream, and now he hasn’t been seen in over 5 months. That November effort is a bit of an outlier in his past performances and I’m a little skeptical that Linda Rice has run this horse out of town so much. Yet he’s undoubtedly the most likely winner. The problem with this race is that there aren’t many logical alternatives. Wild William is hard to take off his last effort and Deputy Flag doesn’t possess any discernable turf pedigree. The one horse that I can make a reasonable case for is Frosted Rose. He’s too slow to win this based on past record, but he may be capable of taking a step forward as he turns back in distance. He ran well to break his maiden at Saratoga last summer and then got thrown into some tougher spots against stakes foes. They tried to stretch him out twice this year, once on dirt and once on turf, and he just had no late punch going that distance. I like him getting back to six furlongs and he’s supposed to get some pace to close into this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,8
RACE 5: ARMAMENT (#7)
The two horses likely to vie for favoritism are Walkoff and Lil Commissioner. The former is a deep closer who is always at the mercy of the pace. Walkoff got plenty of that last time when he rallied from far back to prevail in the mud. It did take a drop down to a bottom level claimer second off the claim for him to get back to the winner’s circle, but at least he got back on track following a poor performance to conclude his winter campaign. The waters get deeper here and there isn’t nearly as much speed signed on, but Cox’s runners have been firing and this guy has generally been one of the more consistent runners in this lineup. He’s a logical player in this spot, but he may need some help up front if he’s to achieve back-to-back victories. I’m less confident in Lil Commissioner. At first glance he seems like the horse to beat, as his recent form is solid and he’s consistently posted some of the best speed figures in this field. However, the elephant in the room is the trainer switch. Rob Atras does an excellent job, but horses exiting the Jorge Navarro barn have generally underperformed. This runner held his own in some tougher spots at Gulfstream, but it’s just difficult to trust that form given what we now know. I want to take a shot with Armament getting back to dirt. It’s interesting that Eric Cancel is sticking with this runner rather than Mills, whom he won aboard last time. Overall this gelding possesses the superior form and class lines, but he’s yet to reproduce his best efforts since the claim by Ed Barker. Yet you can make some excuses for his winter efforts. Then they tried the turf upon return this month, and while he does handle that surface, he lost all chance when he got steadied back to last after the start. This outside post position is perfect for him and he should fall into a great trip either on the lead or stalking California Night. As long as he gets an aggressive ride this time, I think he can take over from that rival be tough to reel in.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 6: SELFMADE (#1)
The horse with the best turf form is Coragescontender, who ran surprisingly well in his turf debut earlier at the meet. Yet that was a six furlong race and now he has to stretch out to a mile. Furthermore, he was 58-1 that day and now he’s going to be a much shorter price for low-profile connections. I’m using him, but he’s not the kind of horse I want to bet at that price. I feel the same way about Bielefeld, who didn’t do much running in his debut and now will attract support merely because Irad Ortiz is riding. He will appreciate the class relief and can certainly win, but I don’t see the value there. I suppose you can say the same thing about Selfmade, who I actually made the morning line favorite, but I’m fairly certain we’re going to see a better effort out of his horse. He took some money in both starts over the winter at Aqueduct, but it just seemed like he struggled with that dirt surface. That should be no surprise, since his dam earned her only two victories on the turf and he’s really bred to be better on grass. He obviously hasn’t panned out as they’re dropping him in for a tag, but it’s the right spot given his prior form. I won’t be surprised if he shows a bit more speed this time, and I believe he’s the most likely winner.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,10,11
RACE 8: RISKY MISCHIEF (#4)
Jeremiah Englehart holds a strong hand in this Bouwerie, and he sends out the prohibitive favorite in Critical Value. If this filly merely returns in the same form as we saw from her as a juvenile last fall, she’s very likely to beat this group. She was very impressive taking the Maid of the Mist by over 5 lengths, and she even put forth a respectable effort against open company in the Grade 2 Demoiselle going a distance that may be too far for her. The one concern is that we sometimes see these precocious two-year-olds return a year later having given up their edge, either due to the fact that they haven’t gone on developing, or that their rivals have caught up. I respect her, but she’s not just the kind of horse that I like to bet at a short price. My top pick is Englehart’s other horse Risky Mischief. This filly generated some buzz prior to her debut at Saratoga last summer and she delivered that day, drawing off to win by over 7 lengths. She was one of the contenders in the Grade 1 Spinaway after that, but something clearly went wrong that day. She was getting out a bit on the turn and just never looked like the horse we saw on debut. Now she makes her return from a lengthy layoff and she appears to be training well for this return to the races. She has to get the 7 furlongs this time, but I don’t think she needs to step forward that much to beat these. I also believe she’s naturally faster than a horse like Courageous Girl to her outside, so she should get a good trip stalking Ilchester Cheetah. Big Q isn’t impossible, but it feels like she caught lightning in a bottle when she posted that impressive victory in the Key Cents, as her subsequent performances haven’t risen to that level.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with ALL
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 5 - 10
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 11: 8 - 11 - 3 - 9
RACE 1: PEACEFUL FEELING (#6)
Sun Summers is obviously the horse to beat as she comes into this race with a superior set of speed figures, many of which have been achieved against stronger company. Yet, I think we can poke some holes in this favorite. She ran fine in her return from the layoff last time at Gulfstream, but she really had every chance in the stretch and couldn’t offer much of a late punch. That’s been her only start during the past year and while she did show some ability as a 3-year-old, one has to wonder if she’s still quite as good after all that time away. Her trainer Jane Cibelli has strong statistics out of town, but she’s just 1-for-21 at NYRA over the past 5 years. Furthermore, she’s going to attract more support than is really warranted with Irad Ortiz climbing aboard. I’m trying to beat her with Peaceful Feeling. This filly ran pretty well in her return from the layoff at Tampa Bay Downs in May, nearly taking that field all the way on the front end. She couldn’t build on that performance last time at Gulfstream, but she was facing a much tougher field that day, as winner Belle Laura has stakes form on the turf. Now she’s dropping into a more realistic spot for Kent Sweezey and she figures to be forwardly placed in a race where her only major pace rival is the inferior Petalite. She’s my top pick, and I’d also use her with the 3-year-old filly Sky Kitten. It’s unclear if this David Donk trainee had any run in the stretch last time, but she was buried inside by apprentice Cardenas. She now gets a positive rider switch to Luis Saez and should be a square price.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,9
Trifecta: 6 with 2,9 with 2,3,5,8,9
RACE 4: MARY’S GIRL (#8)
Timely Tradition is a likely favorite as she seeks her third consecutive victory. Based on her recent speed figures she obviously fits against this field, though it is worth noting that she has struggled to break through at this level in the past. Furthermore, I think she’s subtly moving into a much tougher spot here. She looked superior to that field at Oaklawn last time and she was beating up on a weaker group two back at Aqueduct. I’m using her, but there are other contenders to consider. The scratch of potential speed Fierce Lady has caused me to elevate Bertranda. I know she looks a little cheaper than some of her rivals, but she ran a fantastic race upon return last time. She got engaged in a racelong duel with Letmetakethiscall before putting that one away, only to just get nailed on the wire by a late runner. This mare has run well at this level in the past and is drawn well outside of the remaining speeds in this field. That said, I want to go in a slightly different direction in search of the horse that will offer the best value, and in my opinion that’s going to be Mary’s Girl. I don’t know if she’s quite good enough to beat this field if the aforementioned pair each show up with their best efforts, but that’s hardly a guarantee. I feel that Mary’s Girl showed subtle improvement this past winter at Aqueduct. She ran deceptively well in all four starts at this level, especially in her last two starts going a mile. Some may assert that she improved with added ground, but I think she was just doing well as a more mature 4-year-old. She certainly didn’t finish off those races like she was relishing the added distance, so I like this turnback. She also figures to get an honest pace to close into.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 5: FARRAGUT (#2)
There’s a lot of guesswork to be done in this race, and I feel that some horses who don’t particularly interest me could attract plenty of support. I’m not really interested in either horse coming out of the Gulfstream race won by Competitive Saint back in May. Flying Finish will attract money with Irad in the irons but I just don’t think this horse is really a sprinter. He was slow away from the gate, sluggish early, and green through the stretch. He can obviously move forward off that performance, but I’m not sure how strong that field was. I also can’t take Papa Luke, who just stopped after contesting the pace for 3 furlongs in a race that was won by the horse chasing him. Of the Florida shippers, I’m slightly more interested in Your Awesome Boss even though he exits an off-the-turf race. He actually met some decent dirt runners in there and the race came up reasonably fast. Though, I still think he’d have to improve to beat this field despite moving into New York-bred company. I like Farragut. I know he’s had more chances than the aforementioned runners, and he’s already faced New York-breds. However, he’s run deceptively well in a few of his starts and may just finally be catching the right group. He lost a heartbreaking decision last time after getting floated extremely wide on the far turn. Given his route experience, he should appreciate the extra half-furlong to work with this time. I just think he’s very logical and he’s going to be a fair price.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,10,11
RACE 8: MY SISTER NAT (#3)
I’ll be interested to see how they bet this race. Call Me Love is probably the right favorite given her excellent North American debut and the fact that she’s getting a rider switch to leading jockey Irad Oritz. However, Mean Mary has been very popular at the windows and I won’t be shocked if the public breaks in her favor given her impressive winter résumé. From a handicapping standpoint, I slightly prefer Call Me Love. She was never really a threat to Rushing Fall last time and mostly picked up pieces for second. Yet the distance of the Beaugay was probably on the short side for her, and this 1 1/4 miles of the New York should be right up her alley. While Mean Mary has proven that she is proficient over distances even farther than this, the nature of the inner turf course at Belmont could work in her favor. Speed is always dangerous, especially when the rails are set at 0 feet, as is currently the case. My one reservation with Mean Mary is that she’s really stepping up in class here, as she was facing some weaker fields at Gulfstream. I want to go in a slightly different direction, and my top pick is My Sister Nat. This half-sister to stable star Sistercharlie was initially a disappointment upon arriving in the U.S. last year, losing a series of optional claiming races at short prices. However, Chad Brown nevertheless persevered and entered her in the Long Island Stakes. She lost by a neck, but arguably ran the best race as winner Si Que Es Buena got an unbelievable trip up the rail. It feels like this mare finally turned the corner, and the added distance also appears to be working in her favor. This is a tough spot for her, but she appears to be training very well for her return and it’s a rare situation where we may get a Chad Brown horse at a square price.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,7 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 9: WICKED TRICK (#3)
This race has changed significantly in light of the scratch of likely favorite Promises Fulfilled. His absence takes plenty of speed out of the race, which may change the expected pace scenario. Though, I was skeptical about Promises Fulfilled getting back into form, and actually trust Firenze Fire a bit more. The sloppy track may have been a valid excuse for Firenze Fire in the Carter last time, as he never looked comfortable chasing through the mud after breaking from the rail. Irad Ortiz gets along with this horse better than anyone and he figures to work out a much better trip breaking from the outside this time. There is still the issue of the trainer switch away from Jason Servis, but I’ll be somewhat surprised if this horse truly can’t run anymore for the new barn. That said, I can’t accept a short price on him either. It feels like there still could be an honest pace up front with Diamond King and Yorkton in here, and Firenze Fire should sit a perfect trip just off them. That said, I’m sticking with my original top pick of Wicked Trick. Is he good enough? It’s unclear. His efforts going a mile two back was excellent, but I think that performance was a testament to how well he was doing over the winter rather than some grand statement about his distance preferences. He flattened out late going the same trip in the Stymie, and I much prefer him turning back to this 6 1/2 furlong trip. He actually ran very well over a sloppy track at Aqueduct back in December when he overcame a speed-favoring surface to win, so he shouldn't be hindered by rain in the forecast. He’s going to get plenty of pace to close into and Linda Rice’s runners have begun performing better in recent weeks.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,8
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,5,6
RACE 10: UNI (#6)
This race is all about the match-up between Chad Brown’s two Breeders’ Cup winners, Newspaperofrecord and Uni. Let’s start with Newspaperofrecord. She got back on track last time in the Intercontintental, benefitting from the aggressive tactics by Irad Ortiz. They were intent on putting her on the lead that day, and she never looked back in a dominating performance. That 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the best numbers you’ll see in this division all year. Yet this Just a Game presents a different set of circumstances than the Intercontinental. Newspaperofrecord got to run over her preferred yielding turf course last time and she absolutely loved it. Yet others were not as enamored with the going, and some rivals just failed to show up at all. That was also a turf course that appeared to favor front-runners and hinder closers. There’s no denying that Newspaperofrecord is one of the most talented horses in the country over rain-softened turf, but it’s as of yet unclear if she will be able to translate that form to firmer going. She’s never been one to settle and sprint for home, which is often the key to success on firm turf. And even though she won the Intercontinental impressively, she ran it like a dirt race – fast early and slow late. It’s unclear if such enterprising tactics will lead to success in this spot. Her stablemate Uni is the polar opposite. Her strength is her finishing speed, so unless Newspaperofrecord has built up a sizable advantage by the quarter pole, Uni could have the upper hand this time. Uni was brilliant last year. It’s true that she got advantageous pace setups in both the First Lady and Breeders’ Cup Mile, but she took full advantage of those situations, producing dazzling stretch runs. While she typically comes from far off the pace, she is capable of sitting closer to the lead when they’re not going quickly up front. Though, if Newspaperofrecord is ridden as aggressively as last time to get in front of Valedictorian early, Uni may get the setup she needs regardless of the smaller field size. As long as Uni returns in top form as a 6-year-old, which seems likely given her general consistency, I think she’s going to run down her enigmatic stablemate.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 4 with 1,2,5,7
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