Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 7
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 9 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 2 - 9
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 10 - 1 - 11 - 9
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 8 - 1
PLAYS
RACE 1: OAKHURST (#9)
Diamond Hands is obviously the horse to beat as she seeks to improve on the pair of minor awards that she’s earned in her first couple of starts. She looked like she needed the experience in her debut when she just stayed on mildly over a yielding turf course at Saratoga. Yet she took a step forward last time, just missing second behind the very impressive Haughty after getting impeded by that rival at the top of the stretch. She was certainly flattered when Haughty returned to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on Friday. Among those with experience I think she’s most dangerous. Yet I want a first time starter here. Some may be interested in Ever Summer, who goes out for the dangerous duo of Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario. She’s well-bred as a full-sister to stakes winner Speaktomeofsummer. She’s obviously a threat, but my top pick is Oakhurst. Chad Brown has a pair of fillies in here and I much prefer this first time starter. She’s by underrated turf sire Mr. Speaker, who wins with 15% of his turf route starters. The dam was a stakes winner on turf and she has produced a decent turf winner, who won as a 2-year-old. Chad Brown has a positive ROI with 2-year-old maidens debuting in turf routes at Belmont over the past 5 years. I loved this filly’s workout at the OBS Sale earlier this year, in which she displayed an efficient turf stride.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,5,8
RACE 3: CAROM (#1)
This wide open claimer pits a few known commodities at this level against some notable class droppers. While I respect the form of horses like Hieroglyphics and Outrageous Bet, I think they’re both stepping up in class despite returning for the same claiming tag. I want those dropping down in class out of some tougher optional claiming events. Journeyman might be the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the claim for the dangerous Tom Morley barn. He ran a career-best 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure over this course last time, but he got a great trip that day, just stalking along the rail before staying on at one pace. Perhaps this is just a realistic placing, but it is a little surprising that he’s dropping in class off that effort. I would also consider Conviction Trade, though his recent form is of some concern. He’s been tried over a variety of distances recently but his performances have been steadily declining. This is a better level for him but he’s not the easiest horse to trust. I’m instead going with Carom. He also comes off a poor effort, but perhaps he just didn’t care for the quirky course at Kentucky Downs last time. He obviously wasn’t traveling well that day and Florent Geroux did the right thing in just easing him through the last quarter mile. That race was run during a time when the Saffie Joseph barn was in the midst of a cold streak. Yet the barn has been heating up lately. Over the past 3 weeks, Joseph is 19 for 53 (36%, $2.74 ROI) at all circuits and is even picking up his share of winners at NYRA recently. Carom could be the controlling speed from the rail, which is always dangerous going 1 1/8 miles on the inner course.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 8,9 with 2,5,7,8,9
RACE 4: HUNGRY KITTEN (#7)
Among those exiting the Waya, Orglandes and Always Shopping are the two who figure to attract the most support. I didn’t think Always Shopping had much of an excuse that day, as she was allowed to get away with glacial early fractions and still didn’t have any answer for eventual winner My Sister Nat. Orglandes ran the better race, as she had to launch a run from last and still was able to get up for second. She did just follow the winner but she might be rounding into form for Chad Brown after a stop and start beginning to the season. They’re both contenders here, but I’m interested in Hungry Kitten at a better price. This 5-year-old ran like a horse who needed a start off the layoff last time out at Saratoga. She was always outrun that day while trailing behind a very slow early pace. Her prior starts over conventional route distances have always been pretty ordinary, so I’m not concerned about that result. She comes alive when the distances stretch out to marathon distances, and she’s getting to go her preferred 12-furlong trip here. She finished a good second in this race last year, and I think she’s going to take a big step forward in her second start off the layoff for Shug McGaughey.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 7 with 1 with 2,4,6
RACE 5: GUNTON ROE (#7)
It appears to be all about the firsters in this intriguing maiden special weight event going a mile on the dirt. Some of the top juvenile trainers on the grounds have horses in this affair and a few of them appear to be live. Beyond Best may be the one to beat for Todd Pletcher. This son of Curlin is out of a dam who was stakes-placed on turf, though there is solid dirt pedigree in this female family. This chestnut colt has been training well in the morning, staying on at the end of his drills like one who really wants route distances. I prefer the Christophe Clement pupil, Gunton Roe. This son of Gun Runner cost $300k as a yearling and is out of a dam who was stakes-placed routing on dirt. I like the recent workouts for this chestnut colt. He worked well with the experienced 3-year-old filly Brattle House back on Oct. 3 and galloped out nicely by himself. Then he was working much easier in company with the maiden Ruthenian last week at Belmont. I like the way this horse travels and Christophe Clement can certainly have them ready to fire on debut. Among those with experience, the only one I'd use is Torpedo Run. He was green in his debut and has trained much better since without blinkers.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 8: CHOCOLATE BAR (#10)
Buy Land and See got an abysmal trip and ride in the Belmont Turf Sprint last time. Perhaps he wouldn’t have made the early lead, but his rider made no intention to get him forward from the start, and the blinkered Buy Land and See fought the restraint for four furlongs. When he finally was asked to run in upper stretch he found traffic and his race was basically over at that point. I like the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs for him, but he figures to be among the favorites here. I view Buy Land and See as the horse to beat, but I was hoping to bet him back in a tougher spot than this where he might get more overlooked. Turn of Events has something to prove from a class standpoint, but he’s in great form right now and figures to work out a favorable trip sitting right up close to the pace. I don’t want to discount his chances but I do believe there are some better horses in here. I’m intrigued by the Mike Maker horses in here. Artemus Citylimits will probably attract support off his third-place finish at this level last time. He closed very well to just miss and is obviously improving now that they’re focusing on turf with him. However, I’m not convinced that he’s quite as good going 7 furlongs. I prefer Chocolate Bar at a bigger price. Don’t be deterred by his last race, since he was pulled up at the head of the lane after taking a few awkward strides. I think it’s a good sign that he’s returning in just 4 weeks and he's worked well since that race. Chocolate Bar’s prior form is solid and he’s proven that he can handle 7 furlongs on the dirt, so I don’t mind this distance on the grass.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,9,11
Trifecta: 1,10 with 1,10 with 7,9,11,12
Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 6
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 10: 3 - 12 - 6 - 10
PLAYS
RACE 5: HAPPY HILL LIL (#6)
I believe Blame It On Mary is the horse to beat as she makes just the third turf start of her career. She showed turf ability when she first got on this surface last May, stalking an extremely fast pace and holding well for third. She didn’t get back on this surface until late September, but she put in another solid performance, laying down some honest fractions up front before just getting nailed on the wire. She deserves to be favored and it’s unclear if she will be due to the fact she’s trained by low-profile Ed Barker. Uncle’s Gem is another that could attract support, but I thought she got a great trip sitting right on top of a moderate pace. She had her chance through the stretch and just couldn’t quite see out the 7 furlongs. The slight cutback will help her, but I prefer others. My top pick is Happy Hill Lil. This filly showed sudden and surprising improvement this summer at Saratoga, but she carried that form to Belmont two back, winning a claimer in fast time. Some will dismiss her off her poor finish at this level last time, but she got the wrong trip that day. She was allowed to drop too far back in the early going and then followed a tiring runner into the lane, never in position to make a move until it was too late. She’s better than that, and Paco Lopez should have her more forwardly placed early.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 7: SHAD NATION (#1)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Shad Nation in this Chelsey Flower. This filly had trained well prior to her debut, where she was surprisingly let go at 10-1, and she delivered a strong performance. She traveled well early stalking the pace before making her move in the lane, running down the loose-on-the-lead Gun Boat before galloping out strongly. She got a field-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort and should prove superior to this group if she moves forward at all. Christophe Clement is known for his success with debut runners, but he also has great stats when those horses return for their second starts. Over the past 5 years, Clement is 7 for 22 (32%, $3.71 ROI) with last-out debut winners in turf routes over the past 5 years. I think this filly is pretty good and I’m not convinced she’s facing the toughest field. I primarily want new faces among the challengers. Ouraika is somewhat interesting as she makes her first start in this country for Graham Motion. She was finishing decently among horses in her last start in France and should stretch out. Graham Motion has excellent stats with first time foreign imports, so this filly has a right to improve. I also wouldn’t completely discount the chances of Caironi. This filly was a bit of a surprise when she made her debut last month, but she won that race convincingly and she has a pedigree to stretch out. I’m not trying to beat the favorite, but I would key those two fillies listed at 6-1 on the morning line (Ouraika and Caironi) underneath.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7,9
RACE 9: HOT FUDGE (#1)
Mystic Eyes is a deserving favorite in this Steward Manor. She was beaten by today’s rival Gal in a Rush in the Matron last time out, but Mystic Eyes clearly ran the superior race that day. The early pace was fast and this Pletcher filly was game to battle back in the late stages as the race was beginning to fall apart. In my opinion she did the dirty work and has a right to move forward off that performance, whereas Gal in a Rush was just picking up the pieces and may not be quite as good as the Matron result indicates. I respect the favorite, but she could face some early pressure once again as rivals like Charlee O, Stand Up Comic, and Benbang all possess early speed as well. I want to go in a different direction with a filly who is switching surfaces. Hot Fudge made her debut on turf back in July and actually took quite a bit of money for a Linda Rice first time starter. However, she ran like a horse who needed the race, as she was ridden conservatively in the early going and never got involved. The turf courses were playing somewhat speed-favoring on July 11 – the last day of the Belmont meet – so I don’t think that result is nearly as poor as it seems. Since then she’s returned to win on the dirt before the connections took a shot in the Grade 1 Frizette. I’m intrigued by this move back to turf. She doesn’t have a ton of immediate turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but she’s by decent turf influence Liam’s Map out of an Into Mischief mare. She moved like a horse who should be able to handle turf in that very impressive sales workout back in April, so I’m not opposed to them giving her another chance on this surface. She figures to get a bit of pace to set up her late run.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7,10
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 5,6,7,10
RACE 10: NECROMANCER (#3)
I’m not particularly fond of Wicked Fast, who could vie for favoritism here after just missing by a neck at this level in his career debut. However, I think this is a tougher race at this level than the one he was contesting last time. He got a good trip that day and just couldn’t quite seal the deal while hanging in the late stages. I want to look elsewhere given the wealth of appealing alternatives. Uninvited Guest seems like a logical player as he gets on turf for the first time. This horse showed some ability in his career debut at Monmouth but then fell apart racing over a wet track at Saratoga. I think turf could be the right surface for him, as his dam was clearly best on that footing. He’s obviously been a massive disappointment given his $400k yearling price tag, but Todd Pletcher has solid statistics with horses trying a tag for the first time getting on turf. Another runner dropping in for the tag is Hooky Player. This horse has already been on turf at Monmouth, but I think he’s capable of better after running into a couple of superior rivals in New Jersey. My top pick is second time starter Necromancer. He’s obviously coming out of a strong race, as Slipstream came right back to win the Grade 3 Futurity off that score. Runner-up Grand Sonata also came back to win at Keeneland and fifth-place finisher Dr. Browne’s Miracle improved with a deceptively strong performance in his next start. Necromancer didn’t do much running that day, but he was hampered by a slow early pace, and should appreciate the stretch-out in distance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,10,12
Picks & Plays for Friday, November 5
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 8 - 10 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 10 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 10: 6 - 10 - 11 - 9
PLAYS
RACE 2: NEW YORK BANKER (#1)
Tellaperfecttale seems lie a deserving favorite after having twice finished second at this level since returning from a layoff this summer. She was unlucky to lose a tight photo two back at Saratoga, and then last time was racing wide against a rail bias at Belmont. She’s the most likely winner if she merely holds her form but it’s not as if she possesses some kind of massive speed figure edge over this field. I do prefer her to main rival Captivating Cara, who was with the bias when they met on Sep. 17. She’s also had many more chances and is still a maiden after 17 starts. I want to go in a different direction with New York Banker. This filly was in career-best form over the summer, twice picking up checks at this level. She set a very fast pace before fading in the slop on July 9 in a race dominated by closers. And then she did well to overcome a flat-footed start on Aug. 1, staying on for second with a competitive 84 TimeformUS Speed Figure. They tried the turf last time, and that’s just not her preferred surface. Now she’s getting back to the main track for Mike Miceli, who is 7 for 35 (20%, $2.71 ROI) going turf to dirt over the past 5 years. She also looks like the controlling speed under Paco Lopez.
Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,2
RACE 4: PURE PANIC (#7)
Biz Biz Buzz is a deserving favorite in this Atlantic Beach after running on well for third against a tougher group in the Grade 3 Futurity last time. Winner Slipstream figures to attract some support in the Breeders’ Cup and Biz Biz Buzz wasn’t that far behind him last time over this same course and distance. The only concern is his lack of early speed, since he does seem like the confirmed closer in a race where others possess more tactical speed. I’m not against him, but I do think there are some interesting alternatives at better prices. Doctor Jeff has to prove that he can handle this surface after running around the track in last in the Grade 2 Pilgrim. It was curious to see him get such a conservative ride that day, but perhaps he’ll be more effective over this sprint distance. I prefer Pure Panic as the possible upsetter. This Mike Maker trainee was visually impressive in his debut at Ellis Park and then ran a game race on the wrong surface at Saratoga. I won’t hold his Nownownow debacle against him, since he got involved in a wicked early pace that collapsed. I thought he rebounded nicely last time in the Indian Summer, hitting his best stride too late behind the talented Averly Jane. Six furlongs should be more suitable to his running style and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of this grey colt.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 1,2,3,4
RACE 7: DAUNT (#3)
Royal Spirit seems like a legitimate favorite as he targets this Awad after failing to draw into the field of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Though still a maiden, he’s run well in both career starts. He ran like one who needed the experience in his debut, and he was more professional with blinkers added last time at Monmouth. He got a favorable pace setup in that Nownownow, but he still ran on gamely behind the talented Dakota Gold while finishing some 6 lengths clear of the remaining runners. The 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that effort is solid, but there are some other similarly fast runners in this race who also have plenty of upside. One of those is second time starter General Ken. This colt was quite the secret in his debut, as he won at odds of 28-1. That result was never in doubt as he spurted clear in the early going and won by over 7 lengths. It’s unclear if he was beating anything of quality in that spot, but some sharp connections thought enough to privately purchase him out of that victory and turn him over to Chad Brown. He’s worked well recently in company with Breeders’ Cup-bound Portfolio Company. I’d use both of them, but I’m most interested in Daunt at a better price. This horse was in the same race as Royal Spirit when they each made their debuts at Saratoga, and he arguably ran just as well. He was closing into a slow pace that day and hit his best stride late to get up for fifth. He still didn’t get much respect off that effort in his second start, getting dismissed at 7-1. Yet he ran a much more professional race, traveling well into contention on the far turn before finding a seam through traffic to make his move in the stretch. This son of Nyquist is bred to be a very good turf runner, and I don’t think we’ve yet seen the extent of his true potential. He’s also guaranteed to be a much better price than the two favorites given the lack of tote support runners from this barn usually receive.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 6 with 2,4
Picks & Plays for Sunday, October 31
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 11 - 13 - 6
Race 3: 8 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 12 - 1 - 14 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 7 - 9
PLAYS
RACE 3: LOVE THAT FACE (#8)
Love That Face is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from a lengthy layoff, and I believe she’s a likely winner against this crew. It took her a while to come around early in her career, but she took a huge step forward late in the winter, earning a strong 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure to break her maiden in March. That’s proven to be a strong affair, as the second through fourth place finishers all returned to win their next starts with improved speed figures. A repeat of that performance will obviously make her tough for this field to handle. However, it’s not a good sign that she disappeared for so long after that career-best effort. The positives are that she looks like the lone speed in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on the lead. Her connections are also taking advantage of the claiming waiver off the layoff, as she’s not offered for the $30k tag. She’ll be tough if she shows up, but there are a couple of alternatives to consider. I’m not optimistic about the chances of possible second choice Shanes Pretty Lady. This filly has always been a bit of a plodder, so the pace could work against her here. And her lone start for Tom Morley at Saratoga was awful. The class drop may help, but I get the sense she’s heading the wrong way. I have similar concerns about Stimulus Check, who handled dirt earlier in her career, but has been uncompetitive in 3 starts since returning this year. The trainer switch to this low-percentage barn seems like a bad sign, as it likely means she’s on the cusp of being shipped to a lower-level circuit. Perhaps an interesting longshot to use underneath is Handle the Truth. She beat a decent field two back, and last time was wide against a rail bias when spotted too ambitiously. She’s now dropping to the right level and could pick up pieces late.
Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,2,7
RACE 4: DIAMOND COLLECTOR (#6)
Ambassador Kelly seems likely to take money in her debut for Todd Pletcher. This daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is out of Grade 1 Spinaway winner Rachel’s Valentina, who is of course the daughter of the great Rachel Alexandra. The dam has had just one other foal to race, Alejandro, who is officially winless in 6 starts, but did cross the wire first on one occasion, actually beating Masqueparade. Todd Pletcher is 10 for 35 (29%, $1.63 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in Belmont dirt sprints from 6 to 7 furlongs over the past 5 years. This filly appears to be working fairly well for her debut, and Irad Ortiz gets aboard. Given the lack of appealing options among those with experience, her biggest rivals seem like the other firsters. Radio Days shows some quick workouts for her debut, but she was second-best in that Oct. 9 gate drill and seems more turf inclined as a half-sister to Bowie’s Hero. Union Lake has been working well for John Terranova, but his dirt first time starters often need a start. My top pick is Diamond Collector. This filly went for $320k as a yearling and must be a looker, since that’s a lot of money to pay for this fairly modest pedigree The dam earned her only victory routing on turf and was best on that surface, while second dam Model was a turf and synthetic specialist who was Grade 1-placed. Carlos Martin is 4 for 32 (13%, $1.11 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. Yet notably he is 7-2-1-2 (29%, $5.54 ROI) with debut runners for this owner. The filly appears to be working well for the debut.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
RACE 6: STARFRONT (#4)
Aunt Kat is clearly the horse to beat in this weaker of the two division of the Pumpkin Pie. She had her 3-race winning streak snapped in the Shine Again last time when she was run down by the classy Bayernness. Yet Aunt Kat got away with moderate fractions that day and was simply second-best as the odds-on choice. This time a couple of others could have something to say about the early pace of this race. This filly has been the beneficiary of some very fortunate setups when she’s earned her biggest speed figures, and doesn’t have as much margin for error as it may appear at first glance. I think there are reasons to be skeptical of this favorite at a short price. Victim of Love returns from a brief layoff after disappointing as the favorite in the Bed O Roses this summer, when she set the pace over that sloppy course before fading late. She previously she had run some of her best races on this circuit, twice winning the Grade 3 Vagrancy and even collecting a Grade 1 placing in the 2020 edition of the Ballerina. Yet Todd Beattie is just 3 for 42 (7%, $1.70 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. She’s a major player here if she’s back in top form, but there are some question marks. My top pick is the lightly raced Starfront. She looked like she could be something special when she made her debut here over a year ago, easily wiring a field of maidens with a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was understandably bet down to heavy favoritism off the long layoff last time and disappointed. Yet she was unable to make the lead after a slow break, and ran into a rival who put in a career-best effort. Perhaps she needed that start to shake off the rust, as it does seem like a good sign that Brown is taking a shot in a stakes off that loss. She’s been working very well out of that race, and I expect her to produce a much better effort this time.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,3,5,6
Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 30
by David Aragona
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 12 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 2 - 10
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 5 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 10: 10 - 4 - 3 - 16
PLAYS
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
RACE 1: SALS DREAM GIRL (#1)
RACE 3: WHO HOO THATS ME (#3)
RACE 5: FOOLISH GHOST (#3)
RACE 6: ESPRESSO SHOT (#6)
RACE 8: MAKE MISCHIEF (#4)
Picks & Plays for Friday, October 29
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 12 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 1A - 3
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 11 - 8
Race 10: 11 - 6 - 4 - 9
PLAYS
RACE 4: FIRST CONSTITUTION (#2)
Speaker’s Corner figures to be a short-priced favorite as he drops in class out of the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, which was a very ambitious spot second off the layoff. This colt showed plenty of talent as a 2-year-old, and appeared to finally be fulfilling that early promise when he made an impressive return to the races at Saratoga this summer. He drew off from an allowance field in stylish fashion, and then was thrown into the deep end of the pool next time. However, that Aug. 14 allowance race isn’t looking quite as strong in retrospect, as a few runners have come out of that race to disappoint. Speaker’s Corner does deserve another chance over a route distance, but his connections are curiously adding blinkers, adding another layer of uncertainty. At a very short price, I want to find an alternative. And I think there’s a good in First Constitution. This Todd Pletcher trained 4-year-old just looked like he needed to shake the rust off when he returned from a long layoff at Saratoga, which also marked his North American debut. He broke slowly and was never involved that day. Yet he was much more professional next time out at this same level. He broke better and was in a good position on the backstretch before getting steadied sharply when cut off by the leader. He did well to overcome that trouble to finish a very game third. This colt obviously has some talent and I think he’s a serious rival to the favorite.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,6
RACE 5: SHINE (#12)
If this race stays on the turf, Missy Greer figures to go favored for Danny Gargan. She attracted some support to get bet down to 6-1 in her debut, and she ran fairly well that day. She broke a step slowly and found herself chasing the pace while racing 4-wide on the far turn. She made a nice move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out late. She’s bred to appreciate added ground as a half-sister to Belmont Stakes runner-up Gronkowski, and Danny Gargan’s runners tend to do better with a run under their belts. I slightly prefer to some others with turf experience. I suppose Miss You Ella could do better second time out, but she was bet in her debut and just looked sluggish throughout. Anador is a little more intriguing as she makes her U.S. debut following four starts in France. Yet Christophe Clement doesn’t have the best stats with first time imports. I’m going in a different direction with Shine. This filly was intended for turf in her debut and stayed in when the race got washed off the grass. I thought she was a little interesting that day based on some smooth morning workouts, but she looked uncomfortable over the dirt in the afternoon. She was striding out like a turf horse and I made the note to wait for her on grass. Now she gets the chance over what should be her preferred surface, and she has some pedigree for it. Jimmy Creed is a decent 11% turf route sire, and the dam is out of multiple turf winner Marieval. Bill Mott has a positive ROI with 2-year-old maidens switching from dirt to turf.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,5,9
RACE 9: PULSATE (#5)
Chad Brown appears to have a firm grasp on this Oyster Bay Stakes, even after the scratch of Flavius, who could have vied for favoritism. Value Proposition figures to go favored as he cuts back in distance after easily winning the Red Bank last time out at Monmouth. He put in a solid effort going this distance when he just missed on the Elusive Quality earlier in the year, so he can handle the trip. He also has really improved his tactical speed this year, so he figures to be unaffected by pace from this outside post position. The biggest concern with this horse is his tendency to lug in, as he sometimes can be difficult to ride. I prefer Brown's other runner Emaraaty. I love the idea of this horse cutting back to a one-turn 7 furlongs. His turn of foot seems to be most potent over shorter distances, and he concentrated on 7-furlong races as a younger horse in Europe. He was a bit of a disappointment upon coming over to this country, but he had a poor setup in his race back in April. I don't expect him to get much of a pace setup here, especially after scratches, but I'm hoping that Javier Castellano can get him a little more involved in the early going. After scratches, I changed around my picks and put Pulsate on top. His connections made a tactical error last time when they elected not to use his early speed in the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational, and it probably cost him the race. This time, after the scratch of Ballydooley, he is supposed to find himself on the front end, or at least right up on the pace stalking Made You Look. I'm not concerned about him getting 7 furlongs since he's handled this distance in the past, and he typically runs well with a little bit of give in the ground. This horse rarely gets the respect that he deserves due to the low-profile barn, so he figures to be a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,8,11
Trifecta: 5 with 4,11 with 3,4,8,11,12
RACE 10: PALS ALLY (#11)
I don’t have a particularly strong take on this race, so I just want to highlight a longshot that I find mildly interesting. I won’t be surprised when one of the first time starters wins. Eudaimonia is perhaps the most appealing since she has enough pedigree and goes out for Rob Atras, who has had some success with firsters this year. Rudy Rodriguez has a pair of debuting runners, but neither one really has a dirt sprint pedigree. I want to go in a different direction with Pals Ally. This filly debuted for Roy Lerman at Saratoga and lost all chance at the start when she was checked and shuffled back to last. That was a race dominated by the talented Classy Edition and this filly, clearly well beaten, was basically eased home from the quarter pole to the wire. They tried turf in her next start and she again had issues coming out of the gate, as a rival dramatically veered into her path soon after the start. She was outrun after that, but did do some running late despite not possessing much turf pedigree. She’s bred to be better on this surface as a half-sister to dirt sprinter Saratoga Pal. And now she’s going out for that runner’s trainer Chris Englehart, who is 9 for 34 (26%, $2.40 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt sprints over the past 5 years.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 3,4,6,9
Picks & Plays for Thursday, October 28
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 6 - 13
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 14 - 15 - 13
Race 5: 6 - 2/2B - 3 - 5
Race 6: 9 - 15 - 11 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 10 - 4
Race 8: 15 - 13 - 14 - 7
Race 9: 9 - 7 - 5 - 10
PLAYS
RACE 3: SHASTA STAR (#2)
Spun d'Etat stays in this race rather than scratching for another spot on Friday, and is definitely teh stronger half of the Mertkan Kantarmaci entry. She ran well last time, but she's stepping up to face much tougher here. My Roxy Girl suddenly got back into top form last time first off the claim for Juan Vazquez, making a bold far turn move to blow the race open. She was undoubtedly facing a weaker group that day and now steps up in class. She’s a player here if she holds that form, but I’m somewhat skeptical given her prior inconsistency. And this isn’t a barn I want to take at a short price. Fair Regis and Customerexperience are the logical alternatives. The former is among the most consistent runners in this field and is getting class relief as she drops out of allowance company. Customerexperience is an interesting claim by Gustavo Rodriguez given his prior work with her former trainer Rudy. She ran well to win for Mike Miceli last time and is confidently moved up in class for the new barn. My top pick at what should be a bigger price is Shasta Star. She put in a couple of strong efforts for Robertino Diodoro two and three back, despite not winning either of those races. She was facing a tougher field of $50k claimers in May and returned with a solid effort off the layoff at Saratoga in August. She set a quick pace that day and had every right to get tired late. She didn’t run particularly fast at Monmouth last time but she always appeared to be in command of that race. Now she’s moving back up in class first off the claim for Wayne Potts, who is 6 for 36 (17%, $2.14 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at NYRA. She also appears to be the controlling speed under the 5-pound apprentice.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 4: PREPOSTEROUS (#4)
If this race comes off the turf and is contested at a mile on the dirt, I think there’s an interesting horse in the main body of the field worth considering. The MTO entrants all figure to attract some support. Caragate would arguably be the horse to beat on turf as she stretches out off a decent second-place finish last time. She’s supposed to handle added ground as a daughter of Arrogate, but some may be reluctant to take these connections at a short price. Carbon ran better on dirt in her debut than she did on turf last time, so she may just be getting back to the right surface. I’d use both of them, but my top pick on dirt is Preposterous. Saffie Joseph finally won a race in New York last week, so perhaps his long cold streak is coming to an end. This filly has raced on turf in both prior starts and her dam was a decent turf hrose. However, she’s by negative turf influence Union Rags and her dam is a full-sister to dirt runner Intense Holiday, so there’s more than enough pedigree to handle the main track. She’s always trained reasonably well on dirt in the morning and she’s proven going route distances whereas all of the MTOs are stretching out for the first time. For what it’s worth, Saffie Joseph is 13 for 37 (37%, $2.71 ROI) in off the turf maiden races over the past 5 years.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 13,14,15
RACE 5: CHARLIE FIVE O (#6)
There are two coupled entries in this field, and such races are often good betting opportunities if you like a horse who isn’t part of either entry. Among the two coupled pairings, I prefer the Rudy Rodriguez/Repole Stables entry. Both Devious Mo and Advance Notice are legitimate contenders at this level. Devious Mo ran fine against a similar field las time, showing speed before fading. Though the stronger half of the entry may be Advance Notice, who was 3-wide against a rail bias in his last start on Sep. 18. He’s now dropping to a slightly softer level and would be tough if he can get back to one of his best races. Looking beyond the entries, there are a few legitimate alternatives. Prince James could attract some support as he ships in from the mid-Atlantic region. However, his trainer Miguel Vera, who has plenty of success out of town, is just 3 for 40 ($0.63 ROI) at NYRA over the past 5 years. I’m a little skeptical of a horse who was protected in all of his prior starts dropping in for a tag as he comes to this circuit. My top pick is Charlie Five O. I’m not sure why his connections decided to immediately switch him over to turf after claiming him at Saratoga. He doesn’t have some appealing turf pedigree, and he had run well in his recent dirt starts. It turns out that he’s just not as good on grass and now he’s getting back to his preferred surface. I thought he ran deceptively well on Aug. 21 when he got caught in a pocket on the far turn and was bounced around in traffic in upper stretch. A repeat of that performance should be good enough to put him in the winner’s circle here.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 7: SEVEN LILIES (#2)
Big Bobby is clearly the horse to beat as he makes a third attempt to break through this N1X state-bred allowance condition. He’s run some of the fastest speed figures in this field and has been beaten some talented horses in his last couple of starts. It’s understandable that he was no match for a breakout performance from Judge N Jury two back at Saratoga, and last time he ran into the swift Gold Panda. As long as he maintains his form he seems well positioned to pick up his second victory. However, there are a few potential foes standing in his way. The obvious danger is Uno, who returns from a lengthy layoff for Todd Pletcher. This barn does great off these kinds of layoffs, but I have some questions about this gelding’s overall ability. He looked impressive winning his debut, but it’s unclear how strong that race was or if this son of Laoban just really appreciated the muddy track. He didn’t have much excuse losing as the even-money favorite next time out, and then was against a track bias last time. He may rebound, but I’m a little skeptical. I prefer Seven Lilies. The Rob Atras barn got off to a slow start at this meet, but they’ve picked up the pace lately. Atras won with 4 of his 7 starters across all circuits last week, including a couple of impressive winners at Belmont. Seven Lilies made his return earlier in this Belmont meet for Atras and just looked a little dull off the layoff. He still put in a solid late run but just couldn’t quite get there. I think we’ll see a better effort this time in a race that is supposed to feature a bit more early pace. This horse has the back form to be competitive with Big Bobby and he ran some of those top races when previously in Rob Atras’s stable.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,10
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,10
