TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Friday, June 2

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   8 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 1A - 2 - 8
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 4 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I’ll be interested to see how much money Cant Keep Me Down (#1) takes in this maiden claimer. She was a little chilly on the board in her debut last summer, and was unable to capitalize on a good trip. She was apparently purchased since then by Three Diamonds and transferred to Mike Maker. She now stretches out off the layoff while making a realistic drop into a high-priced maiden claimer. Maker is 6 for 17 (35%, $3.35 ROI) when he doesn’t use Lasix 180+ day layoffs over the past 5 years. She’s logical, but I worry she could be overbet with Irad taking the mount. Diamond Status (#5) might be the horse to beat in her current form, but it’s a little tough to endorse an 0 for 12 maiden. I thought she put in a nice effort against a tougher field at Monmouth last time, and now she’s dropping back down to a level at which she’s had success before. However, it is a little worrisome that she’s lost the early speed she once possessed. My top pick is Solevo Spritz (#2). She debuted at a lower level than this sprinting on turf at Aqueduct, showing decent early speed. She didn’t have much to offer in the lane, just staying on at one pace after a wide trip. Yet that felt like the kind of effort a horse might build upon, and she is bred to go longer, especially on her dam’s side. I would expect her to display more speed on the stretch-out in a race where forward position may be an asset. She has upside first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez and should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#2 SOLEVO SPRITZ, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario where Melting Snow (#7) has a clear early lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. That could be the case given her superior tactical speed. However, she was a little sluggish last time, unable to make the front before fading going this distance. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Ray Handal, but she’s rarely an enticing price and I wonder if her last race is a sign she’s heading in the wrong direction. Customerexperience (#1) is a little more appealing on form, but I do worry about a lack of pace in this race. She’s a confirmed closer, and was badly compromised by a slow pace last time against tougher. Happy Sophia (#4) also rallies from off the pace, but she doesn’t have to be as far back in the early stages as she was last time. She leapt up at the start and did well to get up for second behind a runaway winner. This is a realistic spot off the claim and the price should be fair. My top pick is Run Devil (#5), who just appears to have multiple arrows pointing in her direction. She looks a little cheap, but I actually like the step up in class off the claim. Rob Atras is 9 for 26 (35%, $2.38 ROI) first off the claim with horses moving up in claiming price by 50% or more on dirt over 5 years. She lost a weaker race last time, but she had previously been in good form, and she possesses the tactical speed to get the right kind of stalking trip. I also think Manny Franco could be the right fit for a horse who tends to require some vigorous encouragement.

Fair Value:
#5 RUN DEVIL, at 7-2 or greater
#4 HAPPY SOPHIA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5

It’s a little concerning that $200k purchase River Tay (#8) is debut for a $40k tag, but I would tend to respect this filly anyway. Wesley Ward generally has success debuting horses in maiden claiming races, though the numbers are a little better on dirt than turf. I really liked her workout at the OBS March sale last year, but it’s obviously taken her a while to get to the races. She has the pedigree to be a turf sprinter, and John Velazquez takes the mount, so I won’t be surprised when she runs well. Lexi’s Spirit (#7) is a viable alternative as she gets class relief. She has shown some promise in turf sprints on occasion, but just seems a little overmatched at the maiden special weight level. She ran a decent race last time, wearing cheekpieces, but was unable to make up any ground through the final quarter. This is a softer spot and she has a good chance to break through if she merely holds her form. My top pick is Now Showing (#5). I don’t think we’ve seen the best this filly has to offer in either of her turf starts to date. She got badly shuffled and steadied back in traffic when she made her turf debut against a much tougher field at Gulfstream in March. Then last time she stretched out to a mile at Keeneland and was too keen though the early stages, rushing up to contest the pace from the outside draw. She’s more effective sprinting, and now she drops to a more realistic level. I believe she has more turf ability than the results indicate, and the price should be fair enough.

Fair Value:
#5 NOW SHOWING, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Mondego (#4) is exiting a maiden here going this same distance four weeks ago, and a repeat of that performance makes him one of the primary contenders here. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed signed on in this race, and his running style makes him a danger to wire the field. He also may be one of the most naturally talented horses in the field, as he showed promise on debut and seemed to put it all together last time when returning to front-running tactics. Among his main rivals is Clever Thought (#9), who got too far behind a slow pace last time at Keeneland but had previously run well in a pair of maiden events at Gulfstream. However, he will get a rider change to Ruben Silvera with Irad Ortiz going out of town to ride the Penn Mile. C’Est Magnifique (#6) is another to consider. He was also compromised by a lack of pace in his most recent start when closing for third behind his stablemate. Added distance should suit him, but new rider Eric Cancel will have to work out a trip. I’m most interested in a pair of first time turfers. My top pick is Jungfrau (#5), who showed promise early on and progressed nicely during his 2-year-old season. However, he was too ambitiously campaigned following a maiden victory by disqualification over the winter. He failed to show up in both the Withers and Florida Derby, so now Bill Mott will try something new. I’m sure turf was always a backup plan for this colt, given that he’s out of a dam who was campaigned in Europe who is a daughter of multiple Group 1 winner Special Duty. He gets Lasix for the first time and has the tactical speed to work out a forward trip in a race that lacks pace. I also want to use first time turfer Game Change (#7). He’s another who has recently gone the wrong way on dirt, but he showed some promise over the winter and has pedigree for this surface. He runs with an extended, high-striding action that should translate well to the grass, and he figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#5 JUNGFRAU, at 5-1 or greater
#7 GAME CHANGE, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 8

This race was tough to wrap my head around. I suppose Deep Cover (#8) is the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff and drops in class. However, there are some red flags here. He showed the ability to win an N2X state-bred allowance last year, but he’s immediately dropping in for the tag following a break. Tom Morley is 3 for 43 (7%, $0.98 ROI) off 150-300 day layoffs over the past 5 years, so these types often need a start. The Oscar Barrera entry also makes sense, but I’m always reticent to take entries in this situation. I have more trust in Upper Level (#1A), who has dangerous speed with Jaime Torres aboard. Truebelieve (#1) has better overall form, but he’s tough to trust off a layoff at a short price with this low-percentage jockey named. These factors make me want to search for some better prices. One option to consider is He’s Got It (#3), who moves way up in class off the claim for Rob Atras. His recent dirt form leaves something to be desired, but he's clearly a better turf horse, and now he’s getting back on his preferred surface. As noted for Run Devil earlier, Atras has good stats moving horses up off the claim, and he ran some races on this circuit last year that put him in the mix. My top pick at a bigger price is Marathoner (#7). He looks too slow based on his recent form, but I don’t think we’ve seen the best he has to offer lately. He got significantly steadied heading into the far turn in his last turf race in April, and I don’t want to judge him off his surrounding dirt form. He shipped to Belmont to try turf once last year and nearly caused a 29-1 upset when just missing at a similar level. Marya Montoya has had some success with NYRA shippers in a limited sample. Marathoner has run a few other turf races out of town that put him in the mix and he’s going to be an enticing price.

Fair Value:
#7 MARATHONER, at 11-1 or greater
#3 HE'S GOT IT, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

Distance is a key factor in this 11-furlong maiden event that closes out the card, as most of the runners in this field are stretching out to a marathon trip for the first time. Typhoon Lagoon (#6), one of the few 4-year-olds in the lineup, is the only runner to have previously tried the distance. I could use him in exotics, but some others appear to have more upside. Likely favorite Cyber Ninja (#5) earned a solid speed figure on dirt in his career debut, but visually appeared to show more of an affinity for turf when he switched surfaces in his second start. He was put in tight quarters and got shuffled back on the first turn, racing keenly in a bunched field. Despite being relegated to the back of the pack behind a slow pace, he produced the best finish of all to just miss getting up. He seems like one that’s cut out to run all day based on his physicality and pedigree, so the stretch-out makes sense. He figures to be a handful if he shows up with his best effort. My top pick is one of the Christophe Clement trainees. American Hustle (#8) has raced on dirt in his last couple of starts, but I think he’s going to appreciate switching back to grass. He handled dirt reasonably well last November, and showed some real stamina to stay on for third in that demanding 9 furlong affair. That performances gives me some confidence that he’ll appreciate this longer distance on turf. His turf performances as a two-year-old got progressively stronger with each start. He stayed on well when picking up the pieces last September, and then finished a deceptively strong fourth in a very live maiden race in October. He wouldn’t have to improve much on those 100 TimeformUS Speed Figures to factor here, and he should be capable of better now that he’s a 3-year-old. I also want to use first time turfer Juan Valdez (#4). This expensive auction purchase has been a disappointment, but I think he’s going to appreciate the surface switch. He’s moves like a turf horse and does have enough influences in his pedigree. He’s only sprinted on dirt so far, but I think longer distances will suit him much better. He’s taken money in prior starts, but should finally be a more generous price.

Fair Value:
#8 AMERICAN HUSTLE, at 9-2 or greater
#4 JUAN VALDEZ, at 11-1 or greater

TimeformUS Analysis to return next week

David Aragona is on vacation. His TimeformUS Analysis will return for the Friday, June 2 card at Belmont.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 27

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 10:   6 - 7 - 9 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

This compact field has attracted a pretty competitive group despite only sporting 5 betting interests. The West Point entry of Dripping Gold (#1) and Q F Seventy Five (#1A) figures to vie for favoritism, but I’m against both of them, especially at a short price. They’re each moving up from N1X victories where they got perfect trips, and the waters get much deeper here. I think the horse to beat is Portfolio Company (#4) and could get him if he doesn’t go favored. I like the rider switch back to Joel Rosario, since Irad Ortiz may be have been overconfident when he rode this horse last time. He advanced willingly to the top of the stretch, but was ridden without much urgency until it was too late. I also like the way Rosario has gotten this sometimes headstrong horse to relax when he’s ridden him, producing some of his better finishes. He has versatility that should allow him to work out a trip in this small field. Space Launch (#5) had a valid excuse when last seen on Nov. 19, since he raced 3-wide around both turns. However, he might need a start off the layoff and won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz taking the mount. Daunt (#2) would be the other horse that interests me. He ran pretty well off the layoff in a thinner field than even this one. I expect him to run well again, but I still would prefer to see him going a bit longer down the road.

Fair Value:
#4 PORTFOLIO COMPANY, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 5

Utilization Rate (#6) will probably go favored again based purely on connections, even though her form doesn’t give her much of an advantage over this field. She was an extremely short price as part of an entry last time against what appeared to be a weaker maiden field than this one. Yet she was unable to hold on that day, and she’s going to be a short price again with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard. I much prefer Doral (#4) among the shorter prices. This filly showed some talent on debut when she made a menacing late rally to just miss. She hasn’t really stepped forward since then, but I didn’t love the trip she got last time at Keeneland when she was always out of position. This imposing filly has the natural ability to win a race like this if she can put it all together. One key feature of this race is an apparent lack of pace. Utilization Rate is shown leading on the Pace Projector, but I wonder if Chad Brown will be reluctant to send her forward again given the way she failed to hold the lead last time. I believe Mirabella (#1) could get sent to the front from her rail draw. This filly showed some ability on debut last year at Monmouth, only hitting her best stride late in that 5-furlong affair before galloping out powerfully. She was off for a long time thereafter, but returned on turf last month at Gulfstream with a decent effort. She actually broke very sharply and was contesting the pace into the clubhouse turn before others showed more initiative. While no match for the winner that day, she kept trying gamely through the finish in a race she might have needed. She figures to be ridden more aggressively from her advantageous rail draw this time, and I suspect she’s better than the form indicates.

Fair Value:
#1 MIRABELLA, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

The Soaring Softly didn’t draw the largest field, but there appears to be some talent among these 6 fillies. Love Appeals (#2) is obviously the horse to beat off her dominant allowance score last month, for which she earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She seems well suited to this distance, whereas some others still have to prove that they can be effective sprinters. My problem is that she’s likely to be a very short price now that her form is exposed, and I think some others possess more upside. My top pick is the other Christophe Clement runner Queen Picasso (#4). She won going longer on debut at Gulfstream, but that’s come up a very strong race. Multiple horses have come back to improve their speed figures, including the pace-setting runner-up, who won her next start with a 105 TimeformUS figure. This filly has good positional speed, which should allow her to work out a forwardly placed trip in a race that features a murky pace scenario. She’s also bred to handle this cutback in distance, being a half-sister to a Group 1 Prix de la Foret winner. The other filly who I would use at a bigger price is Quarrel (#5). She has some things to prove as she returns from a layoff for a barn not known for gearing horses up off extended breaks. However, she showed some grit to break her maiden on turf last year, earning a speed figure that makes her competitive here. She also ran very well sprinting on debut, so perhaps this shorter distance will actually work better for her. I’m happy to find out at a square price.

Fair Value:
#4 QUEEN PICASSO, at 4-1 or greater
#5 QUARREL, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10

Perhaps I’m overcomplicating this finale by exploring alternatives to prohibitive favorite Loon Cry (#9). I recognize that she’s the horse to beat, but I’m just not thrilled with her at a short price. She got a great trip in her lone turf start at Aqueduct, sitting just off a moderate pace, and was unable to forge past the leader late. The winner of that race is pretty good, as she came back to run well against winners with a favorable trip. I just thought others would offer better value. Autumn (#7) is perhaps the most interesting runner out of that Loon Cry race on April 8. She clipped heels and fell in any ugly stretch incident, but it did appear that she had some run and was going to have a say in the outcome at the time she encountered that trouble. I expect her to run well, but she took money on debut and I wonder what kind of price she’ll be here. I want to give another chance to Lakeside Getaway (#6) as my top pick. She didn’t show up last time, but she’s going out for a barn that can be a little random at times. I thought this filly had shown some nice progression at Gulfstream over the winter. She ran a lot better than it looks in that Jan. 8 maiden race where she had significant trouble before running on late. And then she contested an extremely fast pace that fell apart on March 16, holding on well for fourth. This 7-furlong distance is supposed to be better for her, and now she’s going to be a much more enticing price off that disappointing result last time.

Fair Value:
#6 LAKESIDE GETAWAY, at 7-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, May 26

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   1A/1 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 8 - 10 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

Tass (#1) is clearly the class of this field. Some may be alarmed by the class drop, but she when at the $40k claiming level the last time she dropped in for a tag on this circuit. She’s now a 7-year-old who isn’t really competitive at the allowance levels for which she’s eligible, so this is a logical spot. Carlos Martin doesn’t have the best numbers off layoffs, but this mare has run well fresh before. She makes sense, but I think others may offer better value. Among the likely favorites, I prefer Lucky Peridot (#5). This mare’s last effort, where she finished second to the talented Sanura, would make her the one to beat if she could repeat it. However, that performance came on synth. While she has run some of her best races on that surface, she’s run well on turf plenty of times. She was actually going to win her turf start in February, but she got stymied in a pocket for the final quarter mile. They’re both logical, but my top pick is Strong Odor (#3). This turf sprinter will attempt to stretch out to a route for the first time since 2021. In that prior turf route, she was second in a two-turn 7 1/2-furlong event at Indy, producing a strong finish in the stretch after getting held up early. It’s a little odd that she hasn’t gone long ever since then, though she has had success sprinting. The drop in class is understandable, since she hasn’t won recently. Yet she ran better than it might appear in that return to grass last time, where she got a conservative ride, appearing to finish with something left in the tank. Mike Maker is 12 for 71 (17%, $2.39 ROI) going from sprints to turf routes at NYRA over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#3 STRONG ODOR, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

Mauritius (#3) really took to turf last time despite not possessing an abundance of turf pedigree. He didn’t break that sharply, which prevented him from showing his typical early speed. Yet he always traveled in the bridle and finished up with good energy through the lane. That was an unusually strong field for the level, and runner-up Splendid Summer came back to win impressively here recently. This one-turn mile on grass should suit him even better, and he has the early zip to lead this field early if he breaks cleanly. Yet he’s moving up in class and there are some class droppers to consider, including Paratus (#4) and Penner Ash (#7). Both are looking to get back on track after lackluster returns in Florida. I’m willing to be a little more forgiving of Paratus, who faced some very tough fields in his two allowance attempts over the winter. His plodding running style is a minor concern, but the drop in class could do wonders for a horse who showed some talent as a 2-year-old. However, I want to go in a different direction in my search for value. General’s Duty (#8) had to drop in against maiden claimers to get his first victory last year, but he did have a few trips. He was particularly compromised on June 25 when he was steadied at a couple points, and then on Sep. 25 when he was extremely rank in the early stages of that race before finishing well. This deep closer actually travels in the bridle and could be more forward with Trevor McCarthy off the layoff. I usually despite progeny of Union Rags on the turf, but this gelding comes from a strong female turf pedigree tracing to second dam Bit of Whimsy. I find it notable that he’s placed ambitiously in his return for Jane Cibelli, who did win with a turf horse moving up in class already at this meet.

Fair Value:
#8 GENERAL'S DUTY, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

The scratch of Bronx Bomber actually makes this race easier for me, since I usually don't like to endorse coupled entries. This was a case where I liked both halves, but I'm happy to be left with Winning Drive (#1) on top, since he figured to be the bigger price of the two anyway. Winning Drive is a less obvious contender than his former entrymate, but I think he makes a lot of sense in this spot. He was competitive with these when competing for Rob Atras this winter, and he held his form well when claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. He had some issues early in the race, shuffled back while reacting badly to kickback. Yet he stayed on gamely at the end. These connections have been in a bit of a slump, so perhaps this entry won’t take as much money as it should. I’m also not thrilled with other likely short prices. I’d rather consider horses like Striking Speed (#4) and Prince James (#5). The former didn’t run so well first off the claim for Charlton Baker last time, but he was compromised by a poor start and could be more forwardly placed this time. Prince James moves up in class, but he’s steadily improved for the dangerous Ray Handal barn.

Fair Value:
#1 WINNING DRIVE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

There’s no doubt that Whatlovelookslike (#3) is the horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance affair. However, she’s going to be a very short price off exposed form and some obvious trouble in her return race. Coming back off a 6-month layoff last time, she stumbled awkwardly away from the gate before chasing 3-wide around both turns. One could make an argument that she ran just as well as, if not better than, the winner Sanura. If she moves forward in this second start of her 4-year-old season, she’s going to be a handful. However, I don’t think she’s a cinch in a race where she figures to be the prohibitive favorite. Among those who finished behind Whatlovelookslike last time, the only one who I would project to improve is Home for Christmas (#1), who ran like a mare who needed the race off a layoff. She’s raced herself into fitness in the past, and was always out of position last time after a slight bobble at the start. Sweet Franny Lu (#5) is another option, as she returns from a 10-month layoff. She ran a couple of races last year that would make her competitive against this field, including that July 20 runner-up effort where she didn’t get the best trip or ride. However, Tom Morley has poor numbers off layoffs of this type. I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Starship Laoban (#4) only just made her turf debut last month after 13 prior starts on dirt. She certainly appeared to take to the surface despite getting into some trouble. Breaking from the middle of the starting gate, she got sandwiched from both sides a few strides into the race as runners crossed over, causing her to get squeezed back to last. Closing from the back of the pack is not a familiar running style for this filly, but she nevertheless put in a game rally through the stretch to get up for third in a race that featured a tepid pace. I don’t mind the stretch-out at all given her physicality, and I suspect she can be part of the pace this time with a clean start.

Fair Value:
#4 STARSHIP LAOBAN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

This conditioned claimer is one of the most interesting races of the day. Contention runs deep and horses are converging from a variety of class levels. I generally wanted to avoid shorter priced options like Foliage (#9) and Heymackit’sjack (#11). The former showed competitive turf sprint form in early 2022, but he didn’t look like the same horse for Tom Drury earlier this year, and subsequently sold at auction for just $22k last month. Now he gets Irad Ortiz aboard, so he's almost guaranteed to be favored by default. Heymackit’sjack ran some big races over 5 furlongs at Gulfstream over the winter, but he hasn’t been quite as successful going this distance, especially at Belmont. Volkert (#8) strikes me as the horse to beat, and he’s unlikely to be favored. This 5-year-old put forth plenty of competitive turf sprint efforts earlier in his career before failing to handle a yielding course when he last tried turf a year ago. I’m not sure why he’s concentrated on dirt recently, but now he’s getting back to the right surface. At a big price I could even use a longshot like Moon Hunter (#10). He looks slow on paper, but he’s going back to the barn of Michelle Hemingway, for whom he broke his maiden last year, and he’s also reunited with winning pilot John Velazquez. I thought his last turf effort at this level wasn’t nearly as bad as it looks, since the rider gave up on him and he finished with something left in the tank. My top pick is a first time turfer. Royal King (#4) might be the most naturally talented horse in this field based on the evidence of his February maiden win. He’s gone in the wrong direction since then, but he’s had excuses. He didn’t want any part of a route distance two back, and last time he blew the start before rushing up. Mike Maker obviously didn’t make a great claim for $75k, as he’s now dropping in for $30k. Yet the switch to turf may be more than an afterthought for this particular horse. While his pedigree doesn’t exactly say grass, his dam was a turf winner who moved up on the surface. It’s also notable that Royal King’s best race came over a sealed track, which he just skipped over, moving much more freely than in his subsequent dirt races. He strikes me as one that will appreciate turf, and he certainly has the quality to defeat a field like this if he handles the surface.

Fair Value:
#4 ROYAL KING, at 5-1 or greater
#10 MOON HUNTER, at 14-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 21

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   10 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 4:   10 - 9 - 11 - 1A
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 11 - 3 - 6
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 8:   10 - 7 - 13 - 12
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 2 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 4

I don’t trust Oglethorpe (#1A), who could vie for favoritism in this spot. His dirt speed figures make him look competitive, but I have serious doubts about the quality of his last race and don’t want to take him at a short price. Luni Sima (#9) makes plenty of sense in his recent form, but he’s not the most compelling win candidate. He figures to take money off his recent speed figures, and I’m concerned that this 1 1/16 miles distance is pushing him past his limit. Film Star (#11) seems like a better fit for this race as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He was beaten to the lead after an awkward start last time, and now should play out as the controlling speed with little other pace signed on. I think that makes him the horse to beat. My top pick is Complete Agenda (#10). I thought this horse put in a game effort trying to rally into a slow pace last time. The comment line says he bled, but this horse never quit despite seeming to struggle with the sandy kickback. I actually prefer him getting back into a one-turn race, since I think he’s run better than it might appear around one turn in the past, getting some trips. He also figures to be the best price of the main contenders.

Fair Value:
#10 COMPLETE AGENDA, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t want to accept a likely short price on Business Model (#3) here. He has faced significantly better competition in most of his recent starts, but he also hasn’t done much running in any of those races. Brendan Walsh actually has solid statistics with horses making their first starts for a tag, but this gelding’s best days may be behind him. He also lacks any early speed and I’m hesitant to take short prices on deep closers. There really isn’t much speed signed on in this race, but I’m not thrilled with either of the horses who figure to go forward form the inside, Two Thirty Five (#1) and Black Belt (#2). Back Ring Luck (#6) should stalk outside of those two, and he’s much more appealing. David Jacobson has had some success on this circuit recently, and I just think this gelding is spotted appropriately for his return to New York. He didn’t get the smoothest trip last time at Oaklawn, and I view him as the horse to beat. My top pick at what should be a bigger price is Lafitte’s Fleet (#5). This horse has been popular at the claim box recently, and I liked that he was reclaimed by Rudy Rodriguez, for whom he previously ran well earlier this year. It's also a good sign that Rudy moves him up in class to the $50k level off the claim despite the fact that he ran poorly last time. Clearly there’s an expectation that this horse can rebound, and I don’t mind him stretching back out to the mile. He’s run well going this distance before and the expected moderate pace should keep him more engaged early.

Fair Value:
#5 LAFITTE'S FLEET, at 6-1 or greater
#6 BACK RING LUCK, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

This New York-bred allowance affair is one of the most wide open races on the entire card. It’s hard to know exactly where the public will land, though Miss Stones (#3) does figure to attract some support off her dominant maiden score last month. She had been rumored to be a good one prior to that race, and delivered on the hype, drawing off to an impressive victory. However, the waters get much deeper as she steps up against winners, and she finds herself in a race that features plenty of other speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with the aforementioned filly getting early pressure from Fancy Joke (#2) and Try It Again (#9), as well as potentially others who also want to be forwardly placed. My top pick is Fancy Feline (#10). Notably, she’s the horse with the LP flag (highest Late Pace Rating) on the Pace Projector, which is significant in a race that is predicted to feature a fast pace. I thought she had a legitimate excuse two back when she got steadied and shuffled back around the turn after trying to show improved speed. Then last time she was the only horse making up ground in a race otherwise dominated up front. I expect her to get a more favorable setup here as she picks up Joel Rosario.

Fair Value:
#10 FANCY FELINE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

Danseur d’Oro (#2) makes sense as the likely favorite. She’s returned this year with a series of improving efforts, and I think we saw the best she has to offer last time when rallying from just off the pace to miss by a nose. She may merely need to hold her current form to get the job done against this field, though I think others have a bit more upside. Second time starter She’s a Nine (#1) got a strange trip on debut. She was mildly cut off at the start when the eventual winner crossed over. She then tried to rush up to chase the pace, but was tentatively ridden. I’m not sure if she was trying to perhaps lug in at the quarter pole, but her rider basically gave up on her and just eased her home. The same jockey is back aboard today, so perhaps there was a plan there. One would imagine she’ll show more speed this time, having drawn the rail. My top pick at what figures to be a bigger price is Krystalheir (#7). Her debut was actually a decent effort. It wasn’t a fast race overall, but she ran well within the context of that affair, making up quite a bit of ground through the lane. She did step forward from a speed figure standpoint last time, while also showing vastly improved early speed. She’s now been off for a couple of months and returns with blinkers added. I do wonder if she's the type who will ultimately want more ground than this, but she still has some upside for low-profile connections and will be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#7 KRYSTALHEIR, at 9-1 or greater
#1 SHE'S A NINE, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 20

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   9 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 9 - 11 - 7
Race 7:   8 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 10:   11 - 15 - 8 - 12
Race 11:   7 - 6 - 9 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

I want to take a stand against Moving Pictures (#7) in this opener. I have no idea how much money a horse like this might take, but he’s not the kind I want to bet. He obviously is the class of the field, but this is a concerning class drop off the layoff. Carlos Martin is an alarming 2 for 30 (7%, $0.95 ROI) with 50% claiming dropdowns over the past 5 years. The logical horse to beat is Dads Good Runner (#4), who handled a wet track when he broke his maiden last time. A repeat of that performance might be good enough against this field. I just want to take a shot against him with Larz (#5) if he gets somewhat ignored in the wagering. This colt has obviously been in poor form, but he didn’t get the right ride first off the claim for Linda Rice, when he was surprisingly rated. This time he figures to get ridden more aggressively on the class drop and I expect a better effort second off the claim for Linda Rice.

Fair Value:
#5 LARZ, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2

If this Paradise Creek stays on the turf, Charging (#1) figures to attract plenty of support off his visually impressive maiden win at Keeneland last time. He showed speed and found another gear when asked for run at the top of the stretch, kicking away impressively late. However, that was going 5 1/2 furlongs, and now he has to stretch out. I think this horse has plenty of talent, but there’s other speed drawn outside of him, and the waters get much deeper this time. Given the expected pace, Inflation Nation (#3) makes plenty of sense as perhaps the best closer of the bunch. I can’t say that I love any of this horse’s efforts, as he does have a tendency to hang at the end of his races. Yet he figures to be suited by this trip and has the talent to get involved. My top pick is Vacation Dance (#7), who seems like a horse who might have been prepping for this spot last time. Even though he took plenty of money in that race, he was ridden like a horse who might have needed the start. Kendrick Carmouche didn’t show much aggression away from the gate and then was content to work out a 3-wide trip. That was a salty field of older horses, and he had a right to get tired late. I think he’ll benefit from that run, and he showed the talent to compete at this level during his 2-year-old season.

Fair Value:
#7 VACATION DANCE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

This $40k claimer for the 3-year-old fillies looks totally wide open. I think the horse to beat is Curlins Choir (#7), as she makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. This filly displayed some likeable attributes in the first few starts of her career before tailing off last time. Yet she seemed to get discouraged chasing outside that day and might be able to rebound for the new barn, especially if the track comes up wet. Luna Loca (#1) is another who makes sense, and she’s getting some needed class relief after facing tougher rivals in her recent starts. I still don’t like the way her form has fallen apart lately, as she hasn’t really been finishing off her races. Given the wide open nature of this race, I want to take a shot with Harlan’s Bond (#2), who could be the biggest price of all. This filly displayed tenacity on debut when she got the job done over next-out winner Clover Street. She then found herself in a tougher spot going a mile where she seemed to get discouraged chasing inside. Now she’s dropping to a realistic level getting back on dirt and I’m hoping she can get a more aggressive ride from the apprentice.

Fair Value:
#2 HARLAN'S BOND, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t have a high level of confidence in this race, but I did want to highlight one price alternative to the favorites. Both Little Demon (#2) and Winter Pool (#5) look formidable on paper, but I have major questions about each of them. Little Demon’s form has completely fallen apart at Oaklawn, and David Jacobson isn’t showing much confidence as he drops him in class for this return to the NYRA circuit. Winter Pool appears to be in better form, but he’s exiting the Linda Rice barn after she handled him like a horse who doesn’t have much upside, resisting the temptation to move him up in class. I want to look elsewhere, and the horse who figures to offer the best value is Jumpster (#6). Some may find it difficult to take this rider, but that’s just going to inflate the price. Jumpster put in a big effort in the mud first off the claim for this barn, and he’s just been in the wrong situations since then. He was used too aggressively to chase a superior rival two back, and then was in over his head last time. He’s dropping back down to the right level and will be a price.

Fair Value:
#6 JUMPSTER, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

It’s been reported that Beguine (#2) will run here instead of the Skipat Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico, and she is certainly the horse to beat against this group. A repeat of her effort two back when she was narrowly beaten by Rossa Veloce at this level might make her too tough for this group to handle. Yet now she’s returning from a layoff and it’s clear that Ned Allard is searching for a soft spot in which to bring her back. I’m just not sure he found it here. Amaretti (#5) is also an intriguing prospect as she steps up against winners for the first time. She was visually impressive breaking her maiden at Keeneland, though I don’t think she was beating much in that spot. All of these runners have strong chances, but I’m interested in Royal Poppy (#3) at a much bigger price. I know she looks slower than most, but she’s coming off layoff, making her first start since February. I won’t be too hard on her for losing to Interpolate in the Ruthless, as that filly came back to finish a strong second in a fast renewal of the Beaumont. Royal Poppy was an impressive maiden winner prior to that over a sealed track. She seems like one who will relish wet going, and she’s getting Lasix for the first time. I project some improvement, and she figures to get overlooked.

Fair Value:
#3 ROYAL POPPY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

This isn’t the strongest starter allowance affair, so I expect Meraviglioso (#4) will take plenty of money as she makes her first start off a trainer switch to Richard Dutrow, Jr. She’s run well against some tougher company in recent starts, earning a series of speed figures that simply make her the horse to beat. Furthermore, we have already seen two horses switching into the Richard Dutrow barn improve at this meet, so it’s reasonable to project a step forward here. Bustin Lulu (#5)could also take some money as she moves up in class out of a maiden claiming win. However, she was facing a much weaker field that day and was able to dominate that race on the front end through moderate fractions. This is a stiffer test. Icy Reply (#8) ran well to be second at this level last time when she tried to stretch out to a mile. Shortening up should suit her and her form had been heading in the right direction prior to that. I just wonder if we’ve already seen the best she has to offer. My top pick is Carbon (#1), who exits that same May 4 race. She’s another who probably didn’t want the one-mile distance, and will appreciate the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs here. This filly had been in good form last fall for Linda Rice before tailing off over the winter. Yet I thought she showed some subtle improvement first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. She seemed to lose focus on the far turn when dropping back, but she then finished up nicely once asked for her best in the lane. I expect her to run a more complete race this time with the blinkers going on, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#1 CARBON, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, May 19

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   8 - 12 - 5 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 5

This state-bred maiden claimer is a trip handicapper’s dream, as 8 of the 9 runners are all coming out of the same race on April 22. October Bliss (#2) achieved the best result of anyone running back here, finishing second, but he got a pretty good trip stalking in the two-path before taking over in the stretch. He’s logical, but others appear to have more upside. I think the one to beat is that race’s third-place finisher Maythisbetheone (#8). He was wide around both turns, going 3-wide on the first turn and then pushed 4-wide on the far turn before spinning out further into the stretch. Despite losing so much ground he still finished strongly. This 4-year-old feels like one with more ability than his overall record suggests, and I think he’ll be tough to beat if he can work out a smoother journey this time. My top pick is another trip horse from that race who didn’t run as well. Aula (#3) took money to go off at 5-1, but raced far too aggressively with blinkers added. He was very keen heading to the first turn and fought his rider for a few furlongs before ultimately settling into a wide trip. He had nothing when asked for run in the lane, but his eventful journey prior to that probably cost him some energy. That was also his first start off a layoff and he may be set for better with that race under his belt. He takes the blinkers off this time, and figures to be a square price.

Fair Value:
#3 AULA, at 8-1 or greater
#8 MAYTHISBETHEONE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6

The Charlton Baker entry of Trash Talker (#1) and Flamingo Hawk (#1A) is sure to attract support, but I’m not thrilled with either one, especially joined together as favorites. Flamingo Hawk has plenty of back class, and is moving up off the claim, which might be a good sign. However, his form had really tailed off for prior connections, and it’s not like this is a significant trainer upgrade. Trash Talker got the job done last time when he was able to shake loose on the front end, but that was going out for Rob Atras. It’s not clear that he can maintain his form off the layoff, and he has to deal with some other speed this time. Rob Atras’s runner Twenty Four Mamba (#6) might be one of the main rivals for this entry, as the horse is getting significant class relief after trying tougher going a mile last time. Yet I’m more interested in two others. My top pick is Risk Profile (#5). This horse was beaten by Trash Talker in his most recent start, but I thought he ran the better race that day. Breaking from the inside, he was always close to the rail on a day when the inside path was generally a disadvantage. I thought he ran on gamely late, taking a noticeable step forward off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Now he adds blinkers and switches to Jaime Torres, so I won’t be surprised to see him get more engaged early. I would also use the shipper Bring Me a Check (#8). He figures to get somewhat ignored here for Parx-based connections, but he’s run plenty of races that put him in the mix, and his most recent effort getting back on the dirt should translate well against this field. Trainer Michael Moore has often struggled on this circuit, but he’s in the midst of a strong season so far.

Fair Value:
#5 RISK PROFILE, at 3-1 or greater
#8 BRING ME A CHECK, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

There is quite a bit of pace signed on in this allowance affair. Excellent Timing (#6), Ikigai (#7), and Rotknee (#8) all seemingly need to be on the lead to have their best chances, and they can’t all vie for the front end without giving away some of their ability to finish. Among those three, Ikigai is shown just slightly behind on the Pace Projector, but he’s the one that might have the best chance to break clear of the field. He is so fast out of the gate, consistently leading after the first couple of jumps, and that could give him an edge here. I do have some doubts about his overall quality, but he could be a factor until very late in the race if he takes the starch out of those chasing him. The good news is that there are some closers to consider. The most logical of those is Who Hoo Thats Me (#9), who will step up to this level for the first time after clearing his New York-bred conditions. He consistently runs well, though he’s not the most reliable win candidate, even when he gets favorable pace setups. I do wonder if he’s best going slightly farther than this, and he just seems a little obvious for my liking. If I’m going to take a closer, I’d rather go for a price. Watasha (#2) owns the highest Late Pace Rating of anyone in this field (LP flag on the Pace Projector) even though he hasn’t been particularly competitive in his last few starts. Yet I think he’s had some significant excuses for those results. He was compromised by a slow pace going a mile in December when he actually did well to get up for third. Something seemed to go wrong in January, and he subsequently got time off. His return might look like more of the same on paper, but he didn’t get a good ride that day. He was shuffled back early, held up on the turn, and then only allowed to run on belatedly. He's clearly better than that and may work a better trip this time if the pace spreads this field out.

Fair Value:
#2 WATASHA, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

Buckortwo (#7) makes sense on the drop in class, since his best turf efforts at the maiden special weight level are simply stronger than the grass performances by anyone else in this field. Yet he does have some questions as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He appeared to be going off form in 2022, and that season was cut short during the summer. Michelle Nevin has mediocre numbers off layoffs like this, so I wanted to explore some other options. There are a few first time starters with pedigree. The most appealing of those might be The Mighty Don (#5), a homebred by 8% debut sire Freud, who wins with 12% of his turf sprint starters. The dam won 5 times on the turf and was proficient going both short and long. Tom Morley doesn’t have the greatest stats with firsters, especially in turf sprints, but some of the workouts look decent for the level. I could also use first time turfer Strategyforyou (#12), who has plenty of grass pedigree. Midshipman is a good turf influence, and the dam was a 3-time turf winner. My top pick is Tie Breaker (#8). This gelding got on turf for the first time in April at the maiden special weight level. He may have just been a little overmatched, as he seemed to stride well over the surface, but just couldn’t produce the necessary finishing speed to be competitive after sustaining a wide trip. That race has also proven to be stronger than the speed figure indicates, as the winner and a few behind him have all come back to improve. Tie Breaker stayed in an off the turf affair last time, but now gets back on grass with appropriate class relief. Jose Ortiz climbing aboard may attract more support than he otherwise would have garnered, but he still should be a decent price.

Fair Value:
#8 TIE BREAKER, at 3-1 or greater