Picks & Plays for Friday, October 15
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 9 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 2B - 1/1A - 2
Race 4: 9 - 8 - 10 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 12 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 12 - 9
PLAYS
RACE 2: SOMETHINGTOTELLYOU (#9)
I can’t bring myself to pick La Hara on top. He’s obviously the horse to beat, but he’s been a major disappointment since winning the first couple starts of his career in impressive fashion. He lost three straight races as the odds-on favorite before the bettors finally abandoned him last time. And he put in the worst effort of his career off the layoff that day, as he had good position on the far turn and just went backwards through the stretch. Chad Brown is 8 for 31 (26%) with non-maidens racing first time for a tag in turf routes over 5 years, but the ROI is just $1.33. I do still prefer him to some other logical players like Blue Lou Boyle and Stanford. Neither one did much running last time at Saratoga. They were beaten by a good horse in Price Talk, but I thought they could have offered a little more through the lane. I instead am most interested in Somethingtotellyou as the alternative. This gelding didn’t run particularly well last time, but I wonder if something happened coming out of that race as he’s missed some time since then. He had previously run very well in a couple of starts early in the Belmont spring meet, and he has the tactical speed to be forward here. He will have to deal with Blue Lou Boyle on the front end, but I have to think that Manny Franco will be aggressive from this outside post on the inner.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,6
RACE 6: MEZCAL (#1)
A couple of fillies exit the 10th race on Sep. 3 at Saratoga. There's an argument to be made that Sitting Pretty was unlucky not to win that day, as she looked loaded on the far turn but Rosario could just never get her into the clear in the stretch until it was too late. She never had to steady sharply, but she was jostled multiple times while searching for room. The posted fractions and time of that race look slow, but those are all incorrect. They actually went pretty quickly up front (Trakus has 47.55 to the half) so she got a decent pace setup. Added distance should be no issue for this Christophe Clement trainee, but I wonder if she’ll get overbet off that last trip. Pruning also exits that Sep. 3 affair, but I thought she got a pretty good trip, stalking inside early before finding room on the rail. I want to go in a different direction with Mezcal. She did not get a particularly clever ride last time, as she looked like the clear speed on paper, but was instead rated off the pace. To make matters worse, she was never on the rail on a day that featured a significant inside bias on the inner turf course. No official fractions are available, but the pace was extremely slow according to my colleague Craig Milkowski, who timed it from video. Mezcal found herself in the opposite situation two back when she got involved in a heated duel through fast fractions before fading at Saratoga. She’s better than her recent results indicate. Stretching out to 1 1/4 miles is a question mark, but I think she’s the most likely winner and she may not be favored.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6 with 3,5,6,7
RACE 7: HONEY PANTS (#12)
Bay Storm is clearly the one to beat off her dominant Christiecat score, which earned her a field-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. There are no official times posted, but she actually set an honest pace on the lead, based on video timings of the race. That said, she was racing on an inner turf course that was heavily biased towards rail runners, and she rode the hedge the entire way. She now must stretch out to 7 furlongs and deal with some other speed. Furthermore, Jonathan Thomas is just 2 for 25 (8%, $1.54 ROI) with last-out winners in stakes on the turf over 5 years. I’m skeptical of this likely favorite. Caldee also makes sense coming out of that Christiecat. She figures to appreciate getting slightly more ground here, but she also rode the rail until getting into the stretch last time, which may have aided her performance. Invincible Gal makes plenty of sense as she cuts back in distance. I’ve always liked this filly going shorter distances and her recent form is better than it appears. She got the wrong trip in the Tepin three back and then was stymied in traffic two back at Saratoga. In some ways, I think Invincible Gal is the horse to beat, but I wanted to go for a bigger price. Honey Pants is the horse that I want to take out of the Christiecat. It may look like she regressed that day, but she got an impossible trip over a biased course. She was ridden to stay in touch early behind a legitimate pace, but was 2- to 3-wide all the way while rail runners dominated. I don’t think the gap between she and Bay Storm is nearly as large as that last result indicates. She doesn’t have the flashy speed figures of some others, but she’s run deceptively well in a few races, particularly three back when overcoming a slow pace to win on June 20. There’s talent here and she’s going to be a much better price this time.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,7,8,11
Trifecta: 5,12 with 5,12 with 3,4,7,8,11
RACE 8: UNION GABLES (#5)
Whispering Pines is obviously the horse to beat as she tries again at this N2X allowance level after losing as the 6-5 favorite last time out. She was a little overbet that day and didn’t run poorly in defeat, basically repeating her usual speed figure while just running into a superior rival. She’s run well in most of her starts for Horacio DePaz, but now she does have to cut back slightly in distance and she lands in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early speed. She’s a deserving favorite, but I think others figure to offer better value. Patty H and Easy to Bless battled when they met on July 16 at Saratoga, with the former just gaining the advantage at the wire. Both have been claimed since then, with Patty H going to Mike Miceli and Easy to Bless now with James Ferraro. I slightly prefer Easy to Bless, who may get somewhat ignored due to the apprentice rider, though I don’t fully trust either one. My top pick is Union Gables. I’m not sure why this filly’s connections seemed so intent on turning her into a turf horse when she’s seemingly better on dirt. She wanted no part of the distance three back at Belmont, but I thought she ran well getting back into a dirt sprints two back at Monmouth. She ran a legitimate speed figure that day and won going away in the end. I don’t care about her last grass start when she was always outrun after getting steadied at the start. She should get the right kind of outside stalking trip and she figures to be a decent price.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,4
RACE 9: COUNT DOWN (#4)
Chrome Dixie is arguably the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. I’ve just never been the biggest fan of this horse, and he’s coming off an absolutely terrible effort at Saratoga. He probably didn’t want to go two turns, and he found himself chasing a run-off early leader. Yet he was done before they got to the top of the stretch, and this subsequent drop in class is not a good sign. Among those dropping in for a tag for the first time, I prefer Horn of Plenty. This horse showed some sneaky turf ability in his lone prior start over this surface back in May. He had some run coming into the stretch, but he was just stymied in traffic for much of the final quarter mile. He got in a prep in an off-the-turf race last time and now he’s getting back to his preferred surface while dropping to a realistic spot. My top pick is Count Down at what could be a slightly better price. I know he was basically eased in his first start for Rudy Rodriguez last time, but I’m not putting much stock in that race. I don’t know exactly what was going on with the turf course for that race, but it was a race dominated by outside runners. One of the other horses who rode the rail, Molino, came up similarly empty in the stretch drive, and he came right back to win his next start with a career-best effort. I think Count Down can bounce back here and he’s returning to his preferred one-turn sprint distances. There’s some other speed signed on, but Jose Lezcano figures to be aggressive from this inside post position.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 3,4
Picks & Plays for Thursday, October 14
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 1A - 5 - 2B
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 6 - 9
Race 5: 8 - 9 - 3 - 10
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 10 - 8
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 5 - 9 - 10 - 2
PLAYS
RACE 1: CORAGESCONTENDER (#1)
I’m not particularly fond of either of the potential favorites in this opener. So Suave is getting needed class relief after trying open N1X allowance company in his U.S. debut. Foreign shippers for the Christophe Clement barn come sometimes need a race in this country, and the pace of that last race did hold together. However, it’s not as if his European form suggests that he’s necessarily a sprinter, and he’s cutting all the way back to 6 furlongs here. I do prefer him to Zanno, who could take money as he ships into New York for the Welsey Ward barn. This gelding was entered and scratched up Saratoga, and is just now returning from a layoff of over 6 months. While he did run well in a few starts at Gulfstream, I generally don’t trust the form of those 5-furlong turf sprints in Florida to translate to New York. I’m going in a different direction with Coragescontender. This horse may look inferior at first glance, but I think you can make some valid excuses for his poor efforts. He won when he cut back to a sprint, albeit against weaker company in May but he was subsequently flattered when that race’s runner-up Catch That Party returned to run well against allowance company. After that he blew the start on July 10 and was basically eased. And he’s been on dirt in his only two starts since then. Now he’s finally getting back to the right surface and distance and I think he can be competitive at this level with his best effort for an underrated trainer. It also doesn’t hurt to get Dylan Davis aboard, as he’s been riding very well at this meet.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,8,9
RACE 3: SUPPLY AND DEMAND (#3)
Jake Rocks is a deserving favorite based on his recent form. This gelding got within 1 1/4 lengths of the talented Baby Yoda on July 17, just prior to that one’s breakout performance. He wasn’t as effective when going off as the lukewarm favorite last time, but that may have been a stronger race than the speed figure indicates. The second and fifth-place finishers came back to win with improved speed figures, and the winner was a second 2nd at the open N1X level next time out. It's hard to take too short a price on a 1-for-25 favorite, but he’s the one to beat. Yet I think there are two interesting alternatives. The less trustworthy one is One Whirlwind Ride, who goes out for low-profile connections. This 3-year-old has some talent, but he’s been hampered by gate issues in most of his recent starts. He blew a couple of starts at Monmouth, and then was away slowly last time at Belmont. I don’t totally trust him to work out the right trip given his gate antics, but he’s one to use at a square price. My top pick is Supply and Demand. This gelding has a pedigree to suggest he wants to go long on the dirt, but pedigree only gets you so far. He’s shown he just can’t handle longer distances in two attempts. The fact of the matter is that he’s 2 for 2 sprinting on dirt, and has put forth efforts in those races that make him a major player here. He looked hopelessly beaten in upper stretch two back and put in a wild late run to get up right at the wire. The first start for Dutrow was poor, but note that in addition to the distance being too far, Sep. 19 at Belmont featured a rail bias, and he was outside all the way.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with 1,2,5,6
RACE 4: TAPPLE CIDER (#2)
Tingling Mint shows an attractive running line in her debut, as she closed from 10th to get up for third. However, the visual isn’t quite as compelling, as she basically just sat on the rail and got a dream run through traffic as she followed the eventual winner’s move. I wonder if she’ll be as fortunate this time for a barn that typically has them ready first time out. I’m not sold on her as the likely favorite. The horse that ran the best on Sep. 1 is obviously Lady Thornhill. Not only did she make a premature move, but she was parked 4-wide around both turns in what was an impossible trip. She ran a winning race, beating four of today’s rivals and will be tough if she can repeat the effort. This filly had shown some promise in her turf debut back in April at Aqueduct, as she ran off too aggressively in the early stages but still fought on gamely once headed in the stretch. Unfortunately, she showed some of those same tendencies last time, as she fought John Velazquez, who unwisely tried to rate her that day. She figures to be more aggressively ridden this time, but she had to deal with the early speed of Caumsett and Vivazano. I think Tapple Cider could be the one that works out the right trip. She also competed in that Sep. 1 affair at Saratoga in what was her turf debut. I thought she put in a respectable effort. After saving ground early, she encountered some traffic on the far turn and had bumped hard in upper stretch while searching for room. She stayed on evenly late but was always running through traffic. I think she deserves another shot on this surface, and she figures to be a better price than both of the aforementioned fillies.
Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,4
RACE 5: SWASHBUCKLE (#8)
This is arguably the most confusing race on the card, as you can make a case for many contenders. A few of the key players exit the 7th race at this level on Sep. 19. Call Me Harry could be the one who attracts the most support, but I think he’s one to play against here. He got a great trip, saving ground on the rail much of the way through moderate early fractions. That was a weekend that featured a strong rail bias on the inner course, and I want horses who were outside. Both Dancing Buck and Opt had wide trips in that race, and I think both are viable alternatives at better prices. Opt is a deep closer who is always at the mercy of pace, but Dancing Buck figures to get a good trip as long as Kendrick Carmouche makes better use of his tactical speed. I’m against some others who could take money, including Straw Into Gold, who cuts back in distance. I’ve always been skeptical of this 3-year-old’s talent, as I think he’s been fairly advantageous in his good efforts. I much prefer Christophe Clement’s other runner Swashbuckle. I don’t know why the connections have been so intent on running this horse over 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs given that he won his debut over a route distance. He’s clearly a difficult horse to ride, but he’s run two of the best races of his career when they’ve stretched out beyond those very short sprint distances. He earned a competitive speed figure going 7 furlongs when he won over this course in May. He comes off a poor effort last time, but he was outside chasing the pace against superior competition on opening week of the meet. This is much more realistic spot, and I like the rider switch to Dylan Davis.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,6,9,10
RACE 8: WINDFALL PROFIT (#4)
We’ll see who goes favored here, but I believe Messidor is the horse to beat as she makes another attempt at this level after falling just short on Sep. 16. She was probably best that day, as she got caught behind a slow pace and was just left with too much ground to make up in a race dominated by the early leaders. She had shown some class in Europe and cutting back in distance at this level seemed to do the trick last time. As long as she maintains her current form she figures to be a handful. Two fillies exit the third race on Aug. 28 at this level. Golden Plume figure to take more money after staying on evenly to be fifth. All things considered, I thought she had a pretty good trip, as she saved ground early and found room in the stretch. Ultimately she just didn’t have the necessary turn of foot to capitalize in the last furlong. The horse that I want out of that race is Windfall Profit. This 4-year-old has clearly had her chances at this level, but she’s coming off what was arguably one of the best efforts of her career in that Aug. 28 event. She was off a bit slowly, which put her in an unfamiliar position at the back of the pack. Luis Saez was dealt a bad hand, but his decision to make a premature move on the far turn didn’t help matters. She was spun 5-wide into the stretch and still almost struck the lead at the eighth pole before flattening out. We saw Love and Thunder, who also had some trouble, come out of that race to dominate a field at this level in her next start. I think Windfall Profit could take a similar step forward, as she has continued to be based at Fair Hill for Shug McGaughey. That switch of training venue appeared to wake her up last time, and she’s dangerous if she’s continued to thrive since then.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3
Trifecta: 4 with 3 with 1,2,5,8
Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 9
by David Aragona
PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 9 - 12 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 11 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 11 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 7 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 10: 8 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 11: 12 - 10 - 1 - 6
PLAYS
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
RACE 2: GUN BOAT (#6)
RACE 4: ZANDON (#2)
RACE 5: FOLLOWING SEA (#5)
RACE 6: MAINSTAY (#11)
RACE 7: ARKLOW (#2)
RACE 9: DADDY KNOWS (#7)
RACE 10: CHOCOLATE BAR (#8)
Picks & Plays for Friday, October 8
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 10 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 6 - 4 - 10
PLAYS
RACE 3: SANCTUARY CITY (#3)
Analyze It is obviously the horse to beat as he seeks his first victory of the year while dropping in for a tag – albeit a high-priced one – for the first time. He’s lost at this level twice in a row, but he arguably ran the best race last time on Aug. 29. He got involved in a heated early duel with a longshot and couldn’t withstand the late charge of talented winner Breaking the Rules. A repeat of the 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that effort should put him in the winner’s circle here. He also should face a much more favorable pace setup this time without any other front-runners signed on. He’s the one to beat, but he’s not the most trustworthy runner at what figures to be a very short price. Dreams of Tomorrow is the obvious alternative as he drops back into allowance company after trying the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch last time. He finished last of 4 in that spot, but he was chasing on the outside the entire way. His best effort gives him a chance, but he got a perfect setup when he won over this course back in May and he hasn’t really moved forward since. I prefer Sanctuary City at what figures to be a better price. The small field should allow this deep closer to sit closer to the pace than usual. He also is reunited with regular pilot Kendrick Carmouche, who guided him to three consecutive victories earlier this year. He was compromised by a slow pace two back in the Forbidden Apple and then last time had to wait in upper stretch before awkwardly altering course while the top two finishers came up the inside. He’s in the best form of his career right now and the one-turn mile at Belmont is perfect for him.
Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with 1,2,4
RACE 4: OH MRS. MAISEL (#3)
This two-year-old maiden event appears to feature a few potentially talented first time starters. Topping that list is Sweet as Pie, a daughter of Tapit out of a stakes-winning dam. This filly’s lone sibling to race is Admiring, an 8-length maiden winner on turf. The dam is a full-sister to Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet winner Streaming, and there’s a ton of stamina deeper in this female family. Todd Pletcher is 8 for 36 (22%, $1.24 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters going 6F to 7F at Belmont on dirt over 5 years, but he’s had plenty of success with firsters at this meet. This nearly white filly has been working well. She was slightly second best to subsequent stakes winner Classy Edition on Aug. 22, and then was going a bit easier in company with Varatti (debut winner) on Aug. 29. The other firster who figures to attract support is Broadway Force. This homebred is by 17% juvenile debut sire Violence. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Essential Edge. Jimmy Jerkens’ firsters can sometimes need a start, but this filly looks well prepared. She easily outworked Zap Man (7th on debut) on Sep. 17, and followed that up with a bullet drill on Sep. 26 that was fastest at that distance by nearly a full second. I respect these fillies, but I want to go with one of the experienced runner. Oh Mrs. Maisel had an interesting journey in her debut. She broke with the field but was restrained on the backstretch, as her rider showed no urgency while letting her drop back to last. She raced a little greenly at the back while still conservatively ridden until she was finally asked for some run in the lane. She didn’t make much late progress but it wasn’t easy to close from far back at the Saratoga meet. She notably took money that day to go off at 7-1, and was flattered when winner Gerrymander returned to finish 2nd in the Frizette. Horacio DePaz is 5 for 13 (38%, $4.56 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years. I expect her to show more speed and run a lot better this time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
RACE 7: HOHOHOHO (#3)
This starter allowance event is one of the most confusing races on the entire card. I suppose Funwhileitlasted could go favored as she cuts back in distance and drops into an easier spot. She was simply overmatched in the Virginia Oaks last time, dismissed at 30-1 odds against a classier set of rivals. The 9 furlongs of that race also may have been too much for her, as she’s done her best work going shorter. She was a strong second over this 7-furlong distance in a stakes back in June, and she figures to get plenty of pace to close into this time. I’d use her prominently, but there are others to consider. Fraudulent Charge is a wild card as she tries turf for the first time. She’s kept good company in Maryland, trading decisions with the talented Street Lute in her last few starts. I actually like progeny of Will Take Charge on the turf, but this filly could take money based on dirt form, and those runners are typically bad bets. I’m most interested in a couple of runners exiting the Sep. 5 starter allowance affair at Saratoga. Hohohoho set the pace that day and was forced through some pretty quick early fractions. She maintained the lead until mid-stretch but was swallowed up by closers late in a race that fell apart. I don’t mind her turning back to 7 furlongs, even though she may have to come from off the pace this time. She doesn’t strike me as a runner that’s overly headstrong, so she should be able to adapt to stalking tactics. And of course nearly ever runner from the Tom Morley barn has been live recently. Yet I wouldn’t dismiss Kemba out of that same race. She also may need to adapt her running style, but she ran better than it seems last time when just unwilling to come through a tight opening on the rail in the stretch. The turnback could also work for her and she may be a better price.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,11
RACE 8: GREAT WORKOUT (#4)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Great Workout as he stretches back out in distance. Seven furlongs may have been too short for him last time, but he would have finished much closer to eventual winner Gold Panda had he gotten away to a clean start. This Pletcher trainee broke a step slowly, but then was cut off by a rival and clipped heels, nearly going down. He recovered from that incident but found himself far behind the field in the early going. He actually did well to regain contact with the main pack by the quarter pole and was finishing best of all through the stretch. That was his first start with blinkers and it appeared to give him some focus once he actually settled into stride. I much prefer him going longer so the extra furlong will help. He also has more tactical speed than he displayed last time, so I expect him to be placed closer to the lead on the stretch-out. As long as he runs a professional race this time, I think he’ll be tough to beat. His main rival could be Our Man Mike. His connections were committed to racing him 9 furlongs at Saratoga since that’s the shortest route on the dirt, but I think he’s better going slightly shorter. He actually put in a solid late run to be fourth in a very fast edition of the Albany. The problem is that he is a confirmed deep closer and there just isn’t much early speed signed on here. The horse who could be dangerous on the front end is Purple Hearted. He was no match for the talented Americanrevolution in the New York Derby two back, but he showed good tactical speed on the cutback last time. I think Great Workout is a better horse and will beat him with a fair trip, but Purple Hearted could stick around for a piece.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 6,8 with 3,6,7,8
Picks & Plays for Thursday, October 7
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1A
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 11 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 4 - 11
Race 6: 3 - 8 - 9 - 7
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 9 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 13 - 3 - 6 - 10
PLAYS
RACE 6: FOREVER MO (#3)
Tizzarunner is arguably the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci. He ran quite well in his first start for this barn last time when just missing to longshot Soulmate in a $50k claimer. It should be noted that the fractions and final time of that race are all incorrect, as they actually went very slow on the front end before sprinting home. It certainly helped that Tizzarunner was so close to that pace, but he was racing in the two-path throughout at a time when rail position on the inner course was a significant advantage. If he can repeat that effort he’s going to be tough for this field to beat. I’d also use Troubling Moon out of that race, since he was 3-wide over that same rail-biased course, but he didn’t finish as well as Tizzarunner. Hieroglyphics is a bit of a wild card as he makes his belated first start off the claim for Dominick Schettino. He obviously has prior form for Mike Maker that puts him in the mix, but he’s been entered and scratched a number of times over the past several months. Among those returning from layoffs, I prefer Forever Mo. This 5-year-old is just getting the class relief that he needs after facing much tougher in his previous start in June. Prior to that he had raced competitive in similar open claiming events at Gulfstream before being compromised by a slow pace in the Appleton. His recent form isn’t as bad as it seems, and now he’s returning at an appropriate class level.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 7,8,9
Trifecta: 3 with 8 with 5,7,9
RACE 8: PRAIRIE FIRE (#9)
The Important One figures to be the clear-cut favorite here as she tries to win at this level for the second time in a row after competing for the $45k optional claiming tag when she won an off-the-turf event last time at Saratoga. She absolutely dominated that field, leading all the way before opening up impressively late. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest of her career, and makes her faster than her rivals here if she can repeat it. She did have everything go her way last time, as all of the fractions for that race are color-coded blue in TimeformUS PPs. That said, it is possible that she’s just a different horse on the dirt. My main issue with the favorite is the fact that she’s likely to face more intense early pace pressure this time. Horses like Beautiful Karen, Shaker Shack, and Rossa Veloce have all done their best running on the front end, and even Honey Money and Awillaway figure to be pressing the issue. There’s seems like a strong likelihood that this pace could heat up, and that would set it up for a closer. Byhubbyhellomoney is one of the late runners to consider. I don’t mind her turning back in distance after winning the 9-furlong Fleet Indian last time. However, she will have to improve on her career-best effort to beat this field. I’m more interested in Prairie Fire off the layoff. This former Linda Rice trainee had been in great form at this time last year, finishing second in the Iroquois before winning an open allowance at Aqueduct in the winter. She tailed off earlier this year and was put away for a while. Now she’s returning for Orlando Noda, who is 6 for 22 (27%, $4.99 ROI) first off a trainer switch over the past 5 years. Furthermore, this barn has had some live runners in the last week and they’ve placed this mare realistically for her return to the races.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 3,9 with 3,9 with 1,2,5,10
