TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 11

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 7 - 10
Race 6:   4 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 10 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 2: HOT FUDGE (#4)
There are some capable runners with experience in this 2-year-old maiden affair, and that last is led by the Welsey Ward trainee Pammy’s Ready. It’s been unwise to ignore anything this barn sends out at the current meet. This filly took a bit of money in her Keeneland debut, but was no match for stablemate Ruthin. She was steadily making up ground late, and was only beaten 3/4-length by Artos, who returned to win on turf before finishing a solid fourth in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Ward has solid stats with second time starters and this filly merits respect. However, I would say the same of the speedy Champagne Camie, who ran well to be third in her debut. She contested an honest pace, dueling her main rival into defeat before both got overhauled by closers late. She clearly took to this course and distance figures to be involved throughout again. I prefer them to the filly shipping in from Churchill Downs, Shanghai Shamrock. She was somewhat green in her debut, but I didn’t get the sense that was a particularly strong race. They’re the ones to fear most, but there are some intriguing first time starters in this lineup as well. My top pick is one of those. Hot Fudge was a $50k yearling purchase who re-sold for $235k following an impressive 9 4/5 workout at OBS April. She showed off a big, long stride in that drill, looking very much like one that should relish turf. Liam's Map isn’t a great debut influence, but he wins with 12% of his turf sprint starters. There isn’t a ton of immediate turf pedigree here, but she should get plenty of versatility from the male influences in her pedigree. Linda Rice is just 1 for 19 (5%, $0.49 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. However, the workouts look pretty substantial for this barn, and Rice even gave this one a rare – for her – gate work this week. She’s pretty interesting at what should be a square price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,7,9

RACE 5: YES AND YES (#3)
This competitive N1X allowance has drawn a very strong field for the level. The horse to beat is probably Big Package, who steps up against open company after impressively winning his final New York-bred allowance condition last time out. He did get plenty of pace to close into that day, but he still delivered a strong kick through the stretch and shouldn’t have any problem handling an extra furlong. The only negative is the fact that he loses Irad Ortiz, who is serving a suspension, but he figures to be involved as long as he holds his form. Wesley Ward has a pair of entrants in this spot, of which After Five looks like the stronger contender. He had to work a little harder than expected to break his maiden last time, and a couple runners have since come out of there to disappoint. This colt has a right to do better than that, as he did show plenty of promise as a 2-year-old, placing in a couple of graded stakes. Yet it’s time for him to run a faster speed figure. Voodoo Zip is one that I considered given all the trouble that he had last time in his first start against winners. Yet I went in a different direction for my top pick. Yes and Yes has run very well going this distance in the past and I think he’s been a little unlucky in his starts so far this year. He didn’t make the lead in either of his races in May, but in the second of those he got a foolish ride, as they decided to defer to the eventual winner in the opening quarter mile. They tried stretching him out last time, and the trip was just a disaster. He broke in the air, spotting the field about 5 lengths. From there, he made a move into the race on the far turn before flattening out. He’s better than that, and he should get a more favorable trip this time, either setting the pace or sitting just off the longshot rail runner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,7,10
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 2,7,9,10

RACE 6: MONTAUK TRAFFIC (#4)
I’m not quite sure what to do with Jalen Journey in this race. I suppose he’s the horse to beat given his apparent pace advantage. The TimeformUS Pace Projector suggests that he’s going to be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, TimeformUS also rated his last race pretty poorly, giving him only a 100 speed figure, adjusted down considerably due to the fact that he set a slow pace. Yet he might get a similar setup here. The big difference is that he’s now stepping up to face a much tougher field. This horse does have some back class, but I haven’t seen enough from him in his recent starts to suggest he’s up to the task of holding off some of the more formidable rivals in this race. Basin and Endorsed both contested the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes this spring, and while neither one fared that well, they’re both getting significant class relief here. I prefer Endorsed, who has run well sprinting in the past and may be in stronger form than it appears. Yet I’m also intrigued by one remaining Linda Rice runner in this field, Montauk Traffic. A paceless situation obviously wouldn’t help this guy much, but he does possess a potent closing kick and may be able to overcome an early deficit with his strong turn of foot. That’s what he was able to do against lesser company two back when the pace was moderate and he used a sprint finish to pass them all and run away from the field. I was impressed with his effort to just miss last time and Linda Rice is quite confidently skipping over the N2X condition that he’s still eligible for to run in this N3X optional claimer.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7

RACE 8: MUTAMAKINA (#2)
Virginia Joy is a deserving favorite in this River Memories after just missing by 2 1/4 lengths in a loaded edition of the Grade 2 New York Stakes last time. Finishing within range of runners like Mean Mary and Thundering Nights suggests that she does possess graded stakes quality and should be able to handle this listed stakes field. However, she did get a perfect trip en route to that fourth-place finish, riding the rail all the way before tipping out in the stretch. She has an adaptable running style that gives her rider Manny Franco options here. Yet she’s not the only one coming out of the New York, and others had tougher trips. One of those is Civil Union, but this mare is difficult to trust after failing to deliver in both appearances so far in 2021. She was compromised by a slow pace in the Beaugay going a distance that is probably too short for her. However, she was supposed to show more last time, never picking up over that yielding course. Firmer going may suit her here, but she still has questions to answer. I prefer a different runner exiting the New York. Mutamakina arguably had the toughest trip that day, as she raced wide around both turns, getting pushed out especially far off the rail as they approached the quarter pole. All things considered, she never stopped running, and wasn’t disgraced finishing sixth. She figures to move forward off that effort as she drops in class. This mare had shown quality last year. She probably should have won both U.S. appearances in 2020, as she was unlucky to lose the Zagora following a terrible trip. This time Rosario figures to attain forward position and may even elect to place her on the lead, which wouldn’t be a terrible decision given the lack of pace in this race.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 5 with 4,6,7

Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 10

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 9 - 1
Race 2:   8 - 1 - 13 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 11 - 8 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 11 - 8 - 9
Race 11:   11 - 6 - 12 - 8

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 3: IFIHADACHANCE (#1)

RACE 4: TIVOLI TWIRL (#3)

RACE 7: SANTA BARBARA (#5)

RACE 8: AUSTRALASIA (#7)

RACE 9: SAFE CONDUCT (#3)

RACE 11: NOBLE THOUGHT (#11)

Picks & Plays for Friday, July 9

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1A - 2 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 5:   12 - 9 - 10 - 11
Race 6:   5 - 2X - 3 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   8 - 1A - 3 - 10
Race 9:   12 - 8 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 2: HEIRLOOM KITTEN (#4)
Supreme Aura is obviously the horse to beat as he returns at the same level at which he won last time. A repeat of that performance will obviously make him formidable against this short field, but he’s not exactly the most reliable favorite. While he’s run a solid set of speed figures since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, he squandered a few good opportunities to win before ultimately coming out on top last time. He got sent off at a generous price that day and he’s going to be a fraction of those odds this time. Furthermore, he got an honest pace ahead of him on that occasion and took advantage, making a wide, sweeping run at the quarter pole. This time the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, which could work against him. The horse that figures to benefit most from that pace characterization is Heirloom Kitten, who is comfortable racing on the front end. He was part of that quick pace on May 15 that helped set things up for Supreme Aura. He understandably faded in the late stages that day, but he bounced back nicely first off the claim for Rob Atras last time. Rated in a stalking position, he made a nice move to challenge the eventual winner in mid-stretch before settling for second. This time Manny Franco figures to send him to the lead and he figure to be especially dangerous from that position. He’s also handled wet tracks well in the past, and he’s likely to encounter a course with plenty of moisture in it on Friday.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1,3,5

RACE 5: TOOTSIE’S SONG (#12)
The favorites in this race don’t do much for me. April Antics may be the public choice as she makes her second start for James Ryerson following a decent fourth-place finish in her debut at this level. She had no trouble handling a sloppy track that day and she may encounter similar going here, so that’s all positive. However, she did get a pretty quick pace to close into, and was mostly just picking up pieces at the end of that race. She makes some sense, but I don’t think she has a significant edge over others who will be better prices. One of those is Blind Sight, who switches back to dirt for Mike Dini. Racing for a different trainer, she didn’t run that badly in her second start on dirt back on May 8. She finished behind today’s rival Know It All Red that day, but she undoubtedly had the tougher trip, going wide on the turn and getting spun out into the stretch. She may have just improved with experience and is worth using. Yet my top pick is another second time starter, Tootsie’s Song. This filly wasn’t particularly competitive in her debut at this level last month, but she looked like a horse who badly needed that experience. She broke a bit slowly and proceeded to get extremely rank under Joel Rosario, tugging him up into traffic. She continued to fight restraint for the next quarter mile before ultimately settling down as the field came towards the top of the stretch. She didn’t make much of an impact late, but that early exertion probably took something out of her. This time she figures to show more speed if she can break cleanly, and I expect her to take a step forward for George Weaver, who has been enjoying a solid meet.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 9,10,11

Picks & Plays for Monday, July 5

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 9 - 7 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 4: FLINTSHIRE’S ROCK (#5)
Majestic Sky is a logical favorite after twice finishing second at this level in his two prior turf attempts. However, his best effort came going 7 furlongs, and he wasn’t quite as effective at a mile last time, so I’m a little concerned about this further stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. He arguably has some margin for error here, since the others just haven’t shown much on turf, but he’s still not the kind of horse that I want at a short price. Orb in the Tower seems like the most logical alternative, but it’s not as if he has a ton of turf pedigree. Orb is a below-average 7% turf sire, and while one sibling did win on the turf this is much more of a dirt family. Pletcher has had some success with this turf to dirt move in the past, but it’s not like this horse is going to be much price with Irad Ortiz riding. I’m going in a different direction with Flintshire’s Rock. I’m hoping he just needed that start off the layoff last time, as he made a mild move coming to the quarter pole before getting bumped and flattening out. He was facing a vastly superior field that day and he’s getting some pretty significant class relief here. I don’t love him, but he feels like the most intriguing option in a race where all of the short prices are flawed.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7

RACE 6: SADLER'S JOY (#3)
I don’t quite understand the public’s love affair with Gufo, who is starting to resemble a younger version of Sadler’s Joy. They both possess electrifying late kicks, but they just rarely get the job done against top company. Gufo really had little excuse to lose the Man O’ War two back, when he had everything go his way from a pace standpoint and he just couldn’t get past a game Channel Cat in the late stages. I don’t think that was a particularly strong field despite the Grade 1 designation (after all, Shamrocket was fourth by just 1 1/2 lengths). Gufo did finish third in a much tougher spot last time when charging late in the Manhattan. Yet he once again left himself with way too much ground to make up. I don’t think it’s clear that he necessarily gets better with added ground, and he’s going to be a pretty short price. I’m generally somewhat against the Man O’ War horses in here, and that includes Moon Over Miami, who got a better trip than Gufo and just had no late punch. Following the scratch of my original top pick, I'm happy to elevate the aforementioned Sadler’s Joy. This 7-year-old could get somewhat overlooked here even as he drops into a listed stakes. He’s developed a reputation as a bit of a hanger over the past few seasons, but he’s had some subtle trips in recent starts. Jose Ortiz made a badly timed move last time when rushing up into an honest pace on the backstretch. He ran better than Moon Over Miami that day, and his prior form is not nearly as disappointing as it might appear. He was given way too much ground to make up late in the Red Smith last year, and prior to that he was no match for the vastly improved Channel Maker. He figures to get a suitable turf course for his running style, and I don't think he's any less talented than the favorites.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,5,9

RACE 9: CARTOUCHE (#1)
The likely favorites in here do very little for me. Day’s Humor is arguably the horse to beat after finishing second at this level last time in her turf debut. However, she got a great trip and ride from Kendrick Carmouche that day and just wasn’t quite good enough to defeat a merely decent rival in Corey Scores. This time she figures to face significant early pressure from Train to Artemus, and she’s going to take more money merely due to the rider switch to Irad Ortiz. Train to Artemus would also be a contender if she starts here. However, I wasn’t thrilled with her only turf start at Kentucky Downs last year. Her turf action was somewhat choppy and she was facing a very weak field for that level. I suppose she can improve, but it’s not like she’s going to be much price either. I prefer Cartouche getting back to turf. This filly has only tried two turns on grass and she ran well in both of those starts as a 3-year-old. She’s since returned sprinting on the main track and has shown that she’s probably better over shorter trips. Getting back on turf going a sprint distance makes plenty of sense, and she’s shown the versatility to come from off the pace. These connections can be dangerous when shipping in to NYRA.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 2,7,9

Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 4

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 13 - 6 - 12
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 1
Race 6:   12 - 3 - 5 - 9
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   1 - 6 - 2 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: HOMBRE (#6)
Likely favorite Tariff War didn’t take that much money, considering the barn, in his debut at Churchill, but he was facing a pretty good field that day. Winner Modern Science returned to just miss against stakes company while runner-up El Kabong came back to win with at the same level. This guy was never a serious threat, but he was a little wide on the far turn and stayed on decently. Chad Brown is 21 for 67 (31%, $2.44 ROI) with 3-year-old and up second time starting maidens in turf routes at NYRA over 5 years. He’s not likely to be much price for this barn with Irad Ortiz riding, but he’s the horse to beat. I prefer the other second time starter Hombre, who figures to be a better price. He finished fifth in the debut but that was a pretty strong field for the level and this guy did make up quite a bit of ground after a poor start. He didn’t take any money that day, but he had worked well coming into that start and since then. It’s not ideal that Barclay Tagg is just 1 for 28 (4%, $0.22 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over the past 5 years. However, there are other reasons to think he can take a step forward. I get the feeling this one has a bit of ability, and he just has to break more professionally to attain a better result. I’m not a big fan of Win Worthy, couldn’t live up to his name last time when getting a perfect trip, and I don’t see the turf pedigree on I Am the Law.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 7 with 2,3,5

RACE 4: HERE COMES DOC (#3)
I just can’t fully trust the likely favorite Daddy Knows as he moves up slightly in class after finishing second at the $16k level off the claim for Linda Rice. This horse’s form had fallen apart for Rudy Rodriguez and while he did get back on track last time, he had everything his own way on the front end and still got run down by a closing winner. This time he’s going to have to deal with the speedy Baby I’m Perfect, who should have more of a say than he did in his first start off the claim for Kelly Breen. Baby I’m Perfect ran off prior to the start of that Delaware race and was allowed to run anyway. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t competitive. Yet he has plenty of prior races that put him in the mix, and he’s arguably more of a need-the-lead type than Daddy Knows. I want a horse that can come from just off the pace, and I can’t take Dunph, who was already heading the wrong way under Robertino Diodoro’s care. I’m instead taking a shot with Here Comes Doc. This horse makes his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts, who has a positive ROI with this move over the past several years. His form is undoubtedly a little spotty, but he got the wrong trip last time when sent up to contest an honest pace in a race dominated by closers. Prior to that he had faced a better field at this level on May 22, and he actually ran well against some decent horses at Oaklawn. He needs to remember how to win and obviously requires some help up front, he has races in him that will give him a big chance and he’ll be a decent price.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6

RACE 6: RUN SMITTY RUN (#12)
There are many ways to go in this competitive maiden claimer on the turf, but I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Run Smitty Run. Despite not having a ton of turf pedigree on the dam’s side, this 3-year-old son of American Pharoah has really taken to this surface in his last couple of starts. He put in a solid late run in a maiden claimer to just miss to the favorite who was also making his first start on this surface. And he arguably improved last time when facing maiden special weight company. His rider did not make enough effort to get him off the rail on the turn and he was stymied in behind runners for much of the stretch drive when trying to rally. He accelerated late when he finally got off the rail. That was a much stronger field than he faces here, and he figures to be too good for this group if he’s able to maintain that form. The race looks pretty wide open beyond him. The two most interesting alternatives are Count Down, who wanted no part of 1 1/16 miles off the claim last time. He was a little too aggressive in blinkers and they come off as he’s turned back to a more appropriate distance. The other intriguing runner in this field is Point of Humor, who has definitely had his chances on turf. However, he’s now making his first start off a trainer switch to Kelly Breen, representing a significant trainer upgrade. He’s hard to completely trust given his overall resume, but he does have a right to move forward.

Win: 12
Exacta: 12 with 3,4,5,9

RACE 8: PULSATE (#2)
Fiya completely turned his form around when switched to turf last summer, and quickly developed into one of the most exciting turf sprinters in the country while reeling off 5 straight victories. He was bet down to favoritism in that G2 Turf Sprint at Churchill last time off the layoff, but he just never seemed comfortable while dueling for the lead in a race that ultimately collapsed. He did run the best race of his career over this course and distance last year, and he figures to be the controlling speed this time. I suppose there’s some question about whether he can recapture his form off the brief layoff, but he’s undoubtedly the horse to beat. Both Christophe Clement runners exit the third race on May 14. I prefer Maxwell Esquire from that heat, as he never really had a chance to get involved through the stretch while buried inside of runners. He had previously run some competitive races against weaker company and still has upside as a 4-year-old. However, he may be the clear second choice with Irad Ortiz named to ride. My top pick is Pulsate. Despite the fact that he only owns a single victory on turf, there’s little to fault about this horse’s form on this surface. He almost always shows up with a competitive effort and ran well every time they led him over last year. Pulsate was right there in that salty July 2020 allowance event behind a trio of stakes-quality runners. He then got hampered in the stretch in the Troy two back and barely lost the Lucky Coin. His best effort gives him a real chance, and the improved tactical speed he displayed last time gives Jose Ortiz some options. The only real question is the layoff, but he should be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,3,5

RACE 9: IT’S A GAMBLE (#8)
Public Sector would be a deserving favorite in this Manila, as his connections wisely decide to stay at this one-mile distance rather than try a more ambitious target like the Belmont Derby. He got a great trip to win that N1X allowance last time, but he still won fairly comfortably in the end over a decent field. He arguably ran better in his runner-up finish two back when he closed into a slow pace against a stakes-quality field of allowance runners. He figures to work out a good trip once again, most likely stalking Original. He also figures to be unbothered by a little give in the ground after all the rain over the past few days. He’s formidable, and I definitely prefer him another short price, Annex. That Bill Mott runner just hasn’t really stepped forward since early in his career, and really didn’t have much excuse to stop in the American Turf two back after working out a good trip. I instead want It’s a Gamble, who gets back on turf after winning the Jersey Derby on dirt last time. He actually ran pretty well in that off-the-turf event, but he’s now getting back on his preferred surface. He put in a strong late run to be second to Hard Love in the Woodhaven, and that colt is arguably the one to beat among the prospective field for the Belmont Derby. It seems like this colt has taken a step forward as a 3-year-old, and has also elongated and gained some more stamina as he’s matured. I don’t mind progeny of English Channel over less than firm turf, so he just needs some pace to develop ahead of him.

Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,4,5

Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 3

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1/1A - 2B - 8
Race 2:   5 - 9 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   3 - 14 - 5 - 12
Race 7:   4 - 8 - 2 - 6
Race 8:   6 - 1A - 8 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 4 - 5
Race 10:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 3: WORK OUT (#3)

RACE 7: ALCOOLS (#4)

RACE 8: JOHNNY SACK (#6)

Picks & Plays for Friday, July 2

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 9 - 11 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 1 - 8 (Dirt: 11 - 5 - 8 - 10)
Race 9:   8 - 7 - 5 - 3 (Dirt: 13 - 12 - 3 - 11)

PLAYS

RACE 4: BEATTHATFLEW (#7)
Tapalist could go off favored here as he makes his NYRA debut off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. This barn hasn’t had too many starters in New York over the past year or so, but he does have an excellent record of improving horses off the claim at other circuits. This colt did put forth a strong performance two back when he won impressively for the $10k tag at Oaklawn. He couldn’t handle a step up in class last time, but that was probably a tougher field than the one he meets here. If he improves at all he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. However, there are questions about him and others to consider. I’m not a big fan of Pier Forty, who just seems to have gone the wrong way of late, and Beach Front seems like a dubious candidate to get a mile. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with Beatthatflew. He wasn’t defeating much of a field when he won his N2L condition two back, but he drew off impressively through the lane and earned a respectable speed figure for the level. Some may dismiss him due to the fact that he was well beaten in his first start for the Joe Parker barn last time, but he was badly overmatched against allowance company. Despite the stiff competition, he was running on late in that race, confirming that he has taken a step forward since the winter. Now he’s back at the right level, and he ran the best race of his career over a sloppy, sealed track, which he could encounter again.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,6

RACE 6: CALI FITZ (#7)
With this race coming off the turf, Raffinity figures to go off as the public choice once again despite disappointing as the 2-5 favorite last time. Perhaps the turnback to sprinting didn't agree with her, but she had run competitively going short at the maiden claiming level in the past. She'd obviously be tough to beat if she ran back to her May 21 performance, but she had everything go her way that day over a fast track. Among the MTO entrants, I actually prefer A Bit o'Irish Sass, who finished behind Raffinity last time out. She proved that she could handle the distance that day, and I think she's been developing at a steady rate, whereas Raffinity may be heading in the wrong direction. Yet I’m most interested in one of the horses entered for turf. Cali Fitz stretches out in her second start after finishing well back in her debut. This filly was extremely green that day as she reacted badly to racing in tight quarters on the backstretch, climbing while taking herself out of the race. She was outrun for much of the way but was running on at the end, as if more distance won’t be an issue. She had some turf pedigree, but I'm sure the connections aren't upset to see this race get transferred to the dirt. I expect her to have a bit more to offer provided that she can break cleanly and get a more forward position this time.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,9,11