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Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 01 00 PM (Sep 24)
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by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 1A - 9 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 12 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 9 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 12 - 11 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 10: 2 - 9 - 13 - 6
RACE 1: DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS (#2)
Potential favorite Pecatonica significantly improved this summer at Saratoga, twice hitting the board at this level after winning her N1X condition. The issue is that she got nearly perfect trips in all of those races, saving ground on the turns before rallying in the stretch. Perhaps this is the day she finally breaks through this condition, but she doesn’t have any kind of speed figure edge over this field and could be an underlay. Among her main rivals are Out of Trouble and Vip Nation. The former got the job done against a weaker claiming field last time at Saratoga. While she did have excuses in her two prior starts at this level, she still has to prove that she can transfer that improved form into this tougher spot. Vip Nation could be the one to catch, depending on how Short Pour is ridden. This 5-year-old mare disappointed against claimers last time, but she had run deceptively well after blowing the start in her return from the layoff two back. Rudy Rodriguez has poor numbers off the claim with turf horses, but I won’t be surprised if this mare runs well for this barn. Yet I want to go in a different direction with Dancingwthdaffodls. This grey mare had achieved most of her success as a turf sprinter coming into that last start, yet she ran surprisingly well going the two-turn mile. That race was dominated towards the front end and she never had proper position, racing wide at the back of the pack. She lost significant ground around the second turn, yet kicked for home nicely to get up for third. She’s capable of better than that and is now reunited with regular rider Jose Ortiz. I think she can pull off the upset if she gets a little pace to close into.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5,8
RACE 3: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#3)
My primary opinion in this race is that I’m against Legit, who could vie for favoritism. This horse just missed at this level last time at Saratoga when closing from far back to finish second. However, he had everything in his favor that day, as he lagged behind an extremely fast pace and was merely picking up the pieces at the end. The horse that you should want out of that race instead is Winston’s Chance, who chased that swift pace while racing wide for most of his trip on a day when the rail may have been an advantage. This time there is very little speed signed on, which should work against Legit and may help the tactical Winston’s Chance. Another horse who figures to attract support is Kingmeister, an improving 3-year-old who recently won an off-the-turf event by over 5 lengths. While he does still have upside in a race dominated by proven commodities, I feel that he’d have to improve again to compete against this field. He benefited from a slow pace last time in a race that just doesn’t quite measure up to those that the others are exiting. My top pick is Backsideofthemoon. I’ve long been a fan of this 8-year-old, but I’ll readily admit that he doesn’t often win. That said, he’s generally been in strong form for the better part of the past year. After winning a pair of races for Rudy Rodriguez at Aqueduct, he was claimed for $100,000 by the current connections, who proceeded to throw him into some ambitious spots. He had no chance rating behind a slow pace in the Alydar last time and two back he actually ran quite well behind the top two finishers in the Grade 1 Forego, Win Win Win and Complexity. While that form is solid, he’s finally getting the class relief he needs and he’s unlikely to be favored given the connections of the other runners in this race.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL
RACE 4: UNICORN SALLY (#7)
Kept Waiting is clearly the filly to beat as she drops in for a tag for the first time following two solid efforts at the maiden special weight level. She barely lost on July 22 at Saratoga after leading most of the way, and then couldn’t quite fend off a fast-finishing Kilkea when again second in August. As long as she maintains her form it’s going to take an improved effort by a competitor to defeat her. The obvious alternative is Micromillion, who was in over her head on the wrong surface when she contested the Fleet Indian last time. Prior to that she put forth a pair of solid efforts on the turf, overcoming a wide trip to finish second at this level on July 25 before trying tougher maiden special weight foes two back. While she clearly has improved on the turf recently, she’s never run fast enough to beat the favorite and isn’t likely to offer much value. I prefer another alternative, Unicorn Sally. This filly has run just as fast as Micromillion and generally done so against tougher company. She closed well to be fourth in a maiden special weight event at Belmont in June, and then was hindered by poor trips in her last two starts at Saratoga. She finished well behind Kept Waiting in the July 22 maiden event, but she stumbled at the start and was wide thereafter. Then last time when dropped in for this tag she got a ridiculously wide trip, getting fanned into the 5 or 6 path when attempting to launch a rally on the far turn. She’s better than that and the move to Belmont’s Widener course and switch to Joel Rosario should help her.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,12
RACE 5: AUTOSTRADE (#6)
I’m not thrilled with the shorter prices in this race. Horses like Mills and Scarf It Down can obviously win, but I find each of them tough to take in this spot. The former possesses more consistent overall form, but he was pretty dull in that off-the-turf race last time. You could also argue that he was lucky to earn that victory at Belmont back in June when Scarf It Down stumbled at the start, made an early move, and just missed. I prefer Scarf It Down based on that performance, but it’s hard to explain his subsequent effort at Saratoga in which he was basically eased. He’s had time to recover since then and the Orlando Noda barn has been winning at a high rate in recent months. Yet I still want to look elsewhere. Some may try to make a case for the Finger Lakes shipper Financial Freedom. This horse certainly fits from a class and speed figure perspective, but I’m generally skeptical that these horses can transfer their form to the NYRA circuit, especially if they’ve never tried before. My top pick is Autostrade, since this horse is likely to be the biggest price of those I’m considering. He was terrible at Monmouth last time when dropped in for an $8,000 tag, but that race featured an extremely slow pace that worked against him. Prior to that he actually was in decent form. He was no match for a tougher field at the $25,000 level in July so I’m willing to excuse that performance. And he ran deceptively well in that June 19 race when dueling with the superior rival Leitone on the lead before fading. If he can still run at least that well on the drop in class I think he has a chance to upset this group.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,9
RACE 9: LOGIC N REASON (#5)
Capital Structure is a British-bred daughter of Lope de Vega who sold for $274,000 at the 2018 Tattersalls sale. She had been in training at Palm Meadows during the spring but didn’t make her debut until July at Monmouth when she surprised a solid maiden field to win at odds of 6-1. She was much the best that day, as she overcame an awkward start by making a mid-race move to challenge for the lead before drawing off in the stretch. This filly clearly possesses talent, but it remains to be seen if she can handle this step up in class. Horses have not returned out of that last race to perform particularly well in subsequent starts, so she certainly has some questions to answer. I’m using her, but I didn’t want to accept a very short price on her. Her main rival is the returning Crystalle, winner of last year’s P. G. Johnson at Saratoga. While she would clearly be a player in this race if able to take a natural step forward off her two-year-old form, her running style could be a hindrance. She’s a deep closer who typically breaks slowly from the gate, and that figures to be a problem in a race that lacks pace. I prefer Logic N Reason, who could play out as the early leader by default. This filly disappointed in her return from the layoff in June, but she ran much better last time at Saratoga. The pace of that July 26 affair was fast, and Logic N Reason was part of a four-horse vanguard leading the field down the backstretch. She finished well ahead of the other horses involved in that pace but was ultimately passed in a race dominated by closers. The 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance is the highest in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 10: MADAM DEPUTY (#2)
I’ve seen enough of Love Me Tomorrow, who may go favored here. She always attracts support but just can’t seem to get the job done even when she finds herself in favorable scenarios. Perhaps she’ll shake loose on the front end this time, as she is clearly faster than her rivals in the early going, but I’m still skeptical that she can hang on late. Mind of Gold is her main rival as she ships to NYRA for Wayne Potts. That 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned at Monmouth last time seems pretty legitimate, and she arguably could have been closer had the winner not drifted into her path in upper stretch. She gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario and must be taken seriously. I’ll use both, but I thought this was a spot to get a little more creative. My top pick is Madam Deputy, who wheels back on 6 days’ rest after fading here on opening day. While that 19-length margin of defeat looks discouraging, she actually didn’t run as badly as that finishing position would indicate. This filly was contesting a fast pace three-wide in a race that totally fell apart late. She was actually traveling quite well coming to the quarter pole before she shortened stride in the last couple of furlongs. The 7 furlongs was too much for her to handle that day, but now she’s cutting back in distance and catching a weaker field despite moving up in claiming price. Rudy Rodriguez is a solid 9 for 41 (22%, $2.34 ROI) with horses coming off 1 to 7 day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. She ran well enough to win this in her debut and could get somewhat lost here with a low-percentage rider named.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 6,9,10,13
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 9 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 10 - 5 - 8 - 14
Race 6: 9 - 7 - 13 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 10 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 10: 8 - 2 - 7 - 1
RACE 5: LITTLE RED BUTTON (#10)
Two Cent Tootsie is clearly the horse to beat as she finally drops in class following 14 prior attempts at the maiden special weight level. Her form is solid and consistent and most of her recent speed figures are significantly superior to those of her competitors. The only issue is that she’s just not a winning type. She’s previously been in position to win races and has failed to get the job done. While those failures came against tougher company, I’d rather not assume that she’ll develop a will to win now that she’s likely to go off at a short price. The problem with this race is that many of the logical alternatives are not particularly appealing. Lucky Latkes and Courted figure to attract some support, but both got good trips in their recent losses at this level. I want to go in a different direction, so my top pick is Little Red Button. This filly needs to improve a bit, but she’s not yet fully exposed, having only made three prior starts on the turf. Two of those were sprints in which she made solid late rallies. Her lone start going this distance two back was the best of her career, as she stayed on well to be third after stalking in the two- to three-path in a race dominated by horses who rode the rail. Even her last race is an encouraging sign, as she stayed on well going 9 furlongs on the dirt, which is hardly the right spot for her. I think she’ll like the surface switch and slight turnback to a one-turn mile.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Box: 5,10
RACE 7: TRANSLATE (#8)
This maiden turf sprint is wide open, lacking a clear favorite. Bastet figures to take some money once again, but I’m getting a little tired of this filly. Perhaps she’ll appreciate getting back to Belmont where she achieved her career-best speed figure, but I’m skeptical. I still prefer her to the other horses with recent turf maiden special weight form. Zaccapa was awful in that July 29 race, and she could take money again. The horse that’s arguably most interesting out of that race is Venus Oyzo, who closed well to be fourth that day and validated that form with a good dirt performance last time. The problem with Venus Oyzo is that you just can’t trust runners from this barn. My top pick is Translate. She debuted against a maiden claiming field last time, but she actually met a pretty tough rival in that race in the winner Miss You Blues. That filly was dropping out of maiden special weight company and was heavily favored. Yet Translate gave her a serious challenge, sticking with her every step of the way through the lane while drawing well clear of the rest. That has been a reasonably strong race for the level, as third-place finisher Yellen returned to win. Yet what makes her particularly intriguing is the claim. Rob Falcone has done very well first off the claim overall, and he’s 5 for 10 (50%, $5.76 ROI) first off the claim in turf sprints over the past 5 years.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,7,10
Trifecta: 8 with 5,7,10 with 4,5,6,7,10
RACE 8: CHILLY IN CHARGE (#5)
French Reef is the horse to beat off his dazzling Saratoga maiden win in which he destroyed a solid field after setting a legitimate pace. Based on that effort he might be bound for stakes eventually. However, he first has to prove that he can reproduce that kind of effort while facing a tougher field of winners, and he’s meeting a pretty salty group in this N1X allowance event. His main rival is Laurel shipper Fiya, who makes his first start for new connections after being purchased for $400,000 at a horses of racing age sale this summer. Despite not possessing any apparent turf pedigree, he has relished the switch to this surface, easily winning both starts on the grass. Last time he embarrassed a field of allowance runners while earning a field-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure, 1 point higher than the number French Reef received for his maiden win. The problem with these two horses facing off is that they both do their best running from the front end. Throw the very fast Yes and Yes into the mix and it seems almost assured that this race is going to feature a fast pace. As talented as the two favorites appear to be, they could help to set things up for a closer. The logical option is Wild Medagliad’Oro, who ran well in his only prior turf sprint attempt. He’s earned his best speed figures on the turf going longer, but he should be able to handle this shorter distance as long as he gets some pace. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Chilly in Charge. This colt has never won on the turf, but he’s run well over this surface. He closed strongly to be second at a big price in his turf debut behind Uncle Benny last year. And then in his return to Belmont last October he ran deceptively well to be fourth in a very tough edition of the English Channel. He launched a wide, premature move on the far turn that day and had a right to flatten out late behind talented runners like Front Run the Fed and Halladay. If he’s ready to fire off the layoff I think he’s going to have a say in this outcome at a price.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,7
RACE 9: LEAD GUITAR (#6)
I can’t bet Olendon at a short price in this spot after she failed as the odds-on favorite last time. She has found her niche as a sprinter recently after failing in route races last year. However, she still has had trouble winning races despite working out favorable trips in her races. This is arguably one of the easier spots that she’s encountered, but I still prefer other options at slightly more appealing prices. Her main rival is obviously Madeleine Must, who tries the shortest distance of her career in her third start in this country. She was fairly disappointing in her U.S. debut, but she showed a bit more last time when finishing a non-threatening fourth against a better field. Perhaps turning all the way back to 6 furlongs will do the trick, but she’s one of many closers in a race that doesn’t feature much pace. My top selection is Lead Guitar. She’s going to have to run much better than she did in her victory at Saratoga against New York-breds last time, but her prior form indicates that she fits against this field. I can also make an excuse for her race two back when she caught a soft turf course and didn’t get the most urgent ride. I’m encouraged that she’s returning to the barn of George Weaver, for whom she ran her best career races in 2019. Her races from that summer would beat this field, but it’s not guarantee that she can get back to them. I’m going to take an optimistic view of her, and I also think that she could be much more forwardly placed in here with the switch to Luis Saez. Notably, Saez was aboard when she went gate-to-wire in her Saratoga maiden victory.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,9
Trifecta: 6 with 2,9 with 1,2,3,5,9
by David Aragona
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 8 - 9
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 5 - 1A
Race 7: 10 - 7 - 6 - 9
Race 8: 1 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 10: 11 - 10 - 2 - 6
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
RACE 2: MONIFICENT (#2)
RACE 3: CONVICTION TRADE (#1)
RACE 7: KERRY GIRL (#10)
RACE 9: DR. SHANE (#5)
RACE 10: STARSHIP EMPIRE (#11)
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 8 - 3 - 1 - 9
Race 3: 1/1A - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 2 - 1A
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 12 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 10: 9 - 10 - 1 - 12
RACE 2: MAKE A STAND (#8)
Gravitas is the horse to beat from the front end, as he figures to use his ample early speed in an attempt to bottom out this field. While he would be tough to beat if able to reproduce his recent form, trainer Jonathan Thomas is just 1 for 28 at NYRA over the past 6 months while he’s won 6 of 26 starts at Monmouth during that time. This horse often has trouble finishing off his races and I think he could be vulnerable against this field. Mike Maker has entered a pair of runners, both of whom seem like viable contenders. Doubly Blessed had a trip last time, but it was much of his own doing, as he attempted to lug in badly during the stretch drive, as he has done in all of his starts. I prefer Me and Mr. C of the Maker runners, as he has a right to improve first off the claim for this barn. He didn’t get the right trip last time and has prior form that would make him competitive here. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Make a Stand, who figures to be a more generous price. Like the favorite, Make a Stand ships up from Monmouth out of some potentially weaker races. However, his efforts in those races at the Jersey Shore are better than they appear. He lost all chance at the start two back when he was badly squeezed back. Then last time, he was against off towards the rear of the field but commenced a wide, premature rally to the front on the backstretch. Mid-race moves like that are rarely successful, but this horse managed to rebreak in upper stretch to fend off his foes. He’s in excellent form right now and could fly under the radar here.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,9
RACE 4: PETIT FILS (#5)
The merits and shortcomings of the two favorites, Rocketry and You’re to Blame, are fairly obvious at this point. The former has prior form that would crush this field, but he’s been consistently underperforming over the past two seasons. The latter’s form is more volatile, though he was also capable of running well enough to win races at this level in the past. You’re to Blame just edged out Rocketry in the latter stages of the Birdstone last time, but he was just picking up pieces after Rocketry was turned away by Moretti. Both can win at short prices, but I feel like you’re supposed to entertain some of the new faces in this lineup. The one that I found most intriguing is Petit Fils. This 5-year-old makes his first start on dirt for new connections after a failed bid to become a stakes horse on turf in this country. While he possesses a European pedigree, his sire Makfi is by solid dirt influence Dubawi and his dam is by Orpen, a son of Lure who has gotten some dirt runners in South America. Petit Fils was reportedly training well on dirt up at Saratoga, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could handle this surface. His new connections have been known to pull off some unlikely results with new acquisitions. Furthermore, trainer Chuck Lawrence is 12 for 60 (20%, $3.13 ROI) with horses going from turf to dirt routes over the past 5 years.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4
RACE 5: LOTTIE’S MIZZION (#4)
This maiden claiming event looks wide open, though the horse to beat is clearly Belleza. She’s not the kind of horse that I’m eager to bet at a short price, but she has certainly run well enough to win at this level, especially two back when she made an early move into a quick pace before hanging on for second. Her last race was a little disappointing, but her early speed makes her dangerous in a potentially paceless affair. I have to take a shot against her with Lottie’s Mizzion, who is in better form than her recent results would indicate. This filly did not get a great ride two back when she was inexplicably taken to the back of the pack despite breaking alertly. All things considered she finished with good interest despite being left with far too much ground to make up. Then last time she was hindered by a speed-favoring track and moderate pace as she closely mildly for fifth going this distances. We saw Gringotts, who got a similar trip that day, return to win later in the Saratoga meet, and I think this filly can also improve over a fair racetrack.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,3,7,8
RACE 8: PRAIRIE FIRE (#7)
Jewel of Arabia may go favored as she seeks her third consecutive victory moving through her NY-bred allowance conditions. While she’s registered daylight wins in her last couple of starts, she has benefited from circumstances in those races. She caught a speed-favoring track when she romped in the slop two back, and then last time she stalked a moderate pace against inferior competition. This is a significant step up in class and she’s going to encounter a more testing pace scenario. Among the shorter prices, I prefer Fierce Lady. She was in the midst of a mild stretch rally last time when she got cut off by today’s rival Good Credence. She was never going to win that race, but may have been cost a position in the incident. The problem with Fierce Lady is that she has been well supported in all of her recent starts (sent off favored 7 times in a row) but she doesn’t have much to show for it. The trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez has helped a little but she’s still not delivering on her early potential. I’m using her but I also worry that she could get caught up in a fast pace with fellow contenders Letmetakethiscall and Baby Boss. I’m siding with the closer Prairie Fire. She looked like an improving filly coming into that last start. She had been compromised by a slow pace in her return from the layoff, and followed that up with a career-best effort on July 23, when hindered by a speed-favoring track. However she couldn’t run back to that effort last time as she failed to get involved after losing contact with the field early. Now Linda Rice adds blinkers, a strong move for her barn, and the rider switch to Jose Lezcano doesn’t hurt. She also may finally get the fast pace setup that she needs to be successful.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 9: WINDFALL PROFIT (#1)
This is arguably the most wide open race on the card, as you can make a valid case for every single runner entered for turf. Eye of a Soldier and Lashara each figure to attract support after battling for second behind impressive winner Duopoly last time. Yet both got decent ground-saving trips and just couldn’t make much of an impact late. I’m using them, but I think others will offer better value. Mary’s France offers some appeal as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, who has excellent statistics in this situation. However, her overseas form doesn’t appear to be that strong and I’m concerned she could get overbet in this spot. My top pick is last-out maiden winner Windfall Profit. She’s stepping up in class after beating a weaker field last time, but it feels like this daughter of Malibu Moon has just turned a corner for Shug McGaughey. She was a dominant winner last time, traveling well throughout despite racing wide before easily drawing off in the lane under minimal encouragement. She’s trained forwardly out of that race and has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this paceless affair. At a bigger price I would also use Fetching, who is an interesting claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci. She was in solid form earlier this year going shorter and has just been in the wrong spots in her last two starts. The stretch-out and lack of pace in this race could work to her advantage.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with ALL
RACE 10: JUSTINTIMEFORWINE (#9)
Bricco is overdue for a victory after losing a nasty photo finish last time. He appeared to have that race won at the eighth pole after making a looping move to the lead off the far turn. However, he tired in the late stages, allowing longshot Freedom and Whisky to sneak through on his inside and nip him on the wire. Bricco has subtly improved with each career start, but he’s now finished second at this level three times in a row. His barn was firing on all cylinders at the Saratoga meet, but that means this horse is likely to be overbet once again. I still prefer him to the logical alternative Selfmade, who exits some weaker turf races at this level. If I’m going to try to beat Bricco, I want to do it from the front end with Justintimeforwine. This horse has had more chances than many others, but he’s finally getting some needed class relief as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s also in better form than it appears after having excuses for his two starts since returning from the layoff. He ran off through unreasonably fast fractions two back. Then last time he got extremely rank into the clubhouse turn when Mike Luzzi attempted to rate him, and ultimately dragging him up to the lead. Those early exertions took their toll lately. This time he figures to get sent forward by Kendrick Carmouche and he should be the controlling speed. The other horse that I find somewhat interesting is Noble Mischief. This is the first time that this 3-year-old has been in a realistic spot after trying tougher maiden special weight fields in recent starts.
Win: 9
Exacta Box: 1,9,10
Trifecta: 9,10 with 9,10 with 1,3,7,12
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 10 - 12 - 2
Race 5: 10 - 9 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 11 - 10 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 10 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 9 - 3
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 5 - 7
RACE 1: SADIE LADY (#5)
Into Chocolate is probably the horse to beat as she drops back into optional claiming company after finishing second to the very fast Lady’s Island in the Minaret Stakes at Tampa. While she was cutting into Lady’s Island’s margin in the late stages last time, that was primarily a function of how fast that winner went on the front end in the early going. Into Chocolate faced some decent fillies in California prior to coming into Bill Mott’s barn, but it’s not as if she was earning speed figures that give her some kind of massive edge over this field. Furthermore, unlike her main rivals in this spot, she’s coming in off a layoff for Bill Mott. I think both of Rob Atras’s runners in this race are dangerous alternatives. Some may gravitate towards Fair Regis, who just always seems to show up with a solid effort no matter the conditions. She made a solid return from the layoff last time, but I didn’t like the way she flattened out late after gaining the lead in midstretch. She’s a contender, but I actually prefer her stablemate Sadie Lady. She took plenty of money off the layoff last time, but she ran like a filly that may have needed a start. While she was predicted to control things up front, they actually pushed her a bit in the early stages and she was forced to set an honest pace of the distance. The race was dominated by closers as she got swallowed up in the last furlong. Now she’s turning back slightly to her preferred 6-furlong distance and this is arguably a softer field than she met last time. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is once again predicting that she will be on the early lead by herself in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 5: CAVARADOSSI (#10)
I’m a little skeptical of the likely short prices in this race. I think Tenure might get overbet here as he returns from the layoff with Irad Ortiz named to ride. He showed good speed in a number of starts last season, but he really seemed to relish the 5 1/2 furlong distance and he faded against tougher company when last seen over this trip at Belmont in October. This time the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with Tenure likely to receive early pressure from Onthewaytoneverland and Elenzee. Wesley Ward has entered a couple of runners, including the aforementioned Onthewaytoneverland. He’ll be dropping in for a tag for the first time after facing tougher rivals in most of his 2019 starts. I think this distance suits him and he certainly fits from a speed figure standpoint. However, he does his best running on the lead and there is other speed in this field. Le General might be a viable alternative to the favorites. While he’s never won on the turf, he ran well over this surface last year, picking up checks in a few New York-bred optional claiming events. It’s not a great sign that he was dropped in for just a $20,000 tag off the layoff last time, but now he’s making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who moves him right over to turf. I’m using him, but my top pick is one of the late runners. Cavaradossi has only made one start on turf, and I think he ran deceptively well that day. This horse was no match for winner What’s to Blame in that lone turf start at Aqueduct, but I liked the way he finished up through the lane once he finally extricated himself from traffic at the quarter pole. He’s certainly bred to be a decent turf horse, and I think he’s subtly improved since the last time he tried this surface. He’s going to be a generous price here given his dirt form and Chris Englehart’s negative turf statistics, but he figures to get pace to close into and I believe he can outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,8,9,11
RACE 6: SILKLY BLUE (#11)
I’m not trying to get too creative in this New York-bred allowance. Silky Blue only won broke her maiden by a horse when last seen at this meet, and now she’s moving up to try winners for the first time. However, she was beating a pretty good filly in Fresco, who had previously run well against open company. Silky Blue was very game to fight on for the victory that day after getting passed in the stretch, and she obviously has no trouble handling this 7-furlong distance. Furthermore, Jorge Duarte is 5 for 19 (26%, $4.95 ROI) with last out maiden winners over the past 5 years. She’s my top pick, and I would use her with the other logical players. Moana’s Tale was just in over her head last time at Gulfstream and now she’s dropping back into state-bred company. She was very impressive when she broke her maiden at Aqueduct last year. That was around two turns, but she seems like a filly with the versatility to turn back in distance and 7 furlongs isn’t too drastic of a cutback. I think she’s the main rival for my top selection, but I would also want to include Violent Point at a more generous price. This filly has finished off the board in both of her turf starts to date, but I don’t think those results are a true indicator of her ability on grass. She was facing a tough field against open stakes foes in the Steward Manor last year, and she actually ran much better than it appears last time in her return. The pace of that June 5 race was very fast, and Violent Point was vying for the lead while racing inside of a pace rival. She faded late, but the race was dominated by closers. There isn’t as much pace in this field and I think she can take them a long way on the front end.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,10,12
Trifecta: 11 with 2,10 with 1,2,8,10,12
RACE 8: DYNA PASSER (#1)
This is a wide open edition of the River Memories, primarily due to the fact that most of the horses in this field are unproven over the 1 1/2 miles distance. Christophe Clement holds a strong hand as he sends out the two shortest prices on the morning line. Yet neither of his runners are proven over this marathon distance. Olympic Games may be the slight public choice due to the presence of Irad Ortiz, but I believe she has a lot to prove in this race. She ran fairly well in her U.S. debut at Gulfstream last time, but she got a pretty good trip that day and just couldn’t quite get up for the victory going 9 furlongs. I don’t see much in her European form that suggests she’s supposed to get better at this elongated distance, and her pedigree doesn’t exactly lean in that direction either. After all, her sire Olympic Glory was more of a sprinter/miler type. I prefer Clement’s other runner Wegetsdamunnys. She returned in great form as a 5-year-old last time, getting up to win despite not getting much pace to close into on June 12. She tried these marathon distances a couple of times late last year, but I thought her late kick was dulled going that far, so I’m a little skeptical that we’ll see her best effort over 1 1/2 miles. I’m interested in a couple of horses who are proven at this distance. One of those is Lemon Zip, who really turned into a 12-furlong specialist in 2019. Her lone start this year resulted in a last-place finish in the G3 The Very One at Gulfstream, but the very firm going that day may not have been to her liking. Her greatest asset is her stamina, and that should come into play, especially in light of the rain that fell earlier this week. My top pick is Dyna Passer for similar reasons. She beat a much weaker field going this distance back in March at Gulfstream, but she had shown strong form against tougher fields last year as a 3-year-old filly. This half-sister to Sadler’s Joy appears to get better with added ground and I think she’s going to work out a nice trip here from her inside draw. She has the tactical speed to stay within range of the leaders in a spot where the only true front-runner, Tass, is going to scratch after competing on Saturday at Delaware.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6,9
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4,9 with 2,3,4,6,7,9
RACE 9: MAGICAL ROMANCE (#3)
I suppose Dream Chasing is the horse to beat as she makes her second start off the layoff. She was beaten as one of the shorter prices in that return effort, but she was compromised by a slow start that day. This is a pretty soft spot and she really doesn’t need to improve that much, provided a clean break, to beat this field. The other horse that could attract some support is Painite. She ran well in her turn debut despite not getting a great ride from the apprentice, but she took a step in the wrong direction last time when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles. While this turnback to 6 furlongs seems pretty drastic, I actually think she could improve with less distance. The rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz is a double-edge sword, as it’s positive but also ensures that she’s going to take plenty of money in this spot. I’m interested in a couple of the bigger-priced alternatives. Pippi deserves another shot on the turf after getting an uncomfortable trip in her turf debut. She has the pedigree to excel on this surface and she was just never really comfortable last time after having trouble early and going wide on the turf. She also gets a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado. Yet my top pick is Magical Romance. While she’s had many more chances than her main rivals, she’s actually run pretty well in a number of her turf starts. Each of her last two speed figures on this surface are good enough to win a race at this level and I thought she put in a better effort last time than her fourth-place finish would indicate. She went very wide on the turn at a time when the inside path was the place to be with the rails set at 0 feet on the turf course. I think she’s capable of better and she could get overlooked in this spot due to the low-profile connections.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,67,8
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 9 - 10 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 10 - 9 - 12
Race 6: 3 - 8 - 13 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 5 - 1A
Race 9: 4 - 5 - 1 - 10
Race 10: 10 - 5 - 11 - 4
RACE 4: MOTHER MOTHER (#2)
Monomoy Girl will obviously win this race if she can recapture her 3-year-old form. However, she’s going to get bet as if that’s some kind of guarantee and I’m not completely sold that she’s quite as good as she once was based on her return effort. I acknowledge that horses deserve the benefit of the doubt when they’re coming back off 18-month layoffs, and she certainly did what she had to do to win that race. However, I didn’t love the way she finished up that day and she’s going to have to step forward to beat this field. I’m not way against her in this spot, but I don’t think she deserves to be such a short price, especially since she faces at least one legitimate rival. Mother Mother is going to upset Monomoy Girl if she merely runs back to her last two starts. However, I believe she’s a better horse than we’ve seen recently. She ran a fantastic race to be third in the La Brea behind Hard Not to Love and Bellafina last December and her following efforts in California were solid. She’s had trip excuses the last couple of times, as she had a problem at the start in the Desert Stormer and then was always outrun when too wide over a wet track in the Harmony Lodge. She clearly doesn’t like that kind of going, so I have to hope the track has dried out by this time on Saturday. If she does get a dry surface, I think she’s going to be more aggressively ridden from the rail this time and I’m not that concerned about her handling the distance. She won a stakes going a mile as a 2-year-old and I would expect Manny Franco to be a bit more aggressive from the gate this time.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 5
RACE 5: QUARKY (#11)
Honey Won’t was only facing claimers last time, so this is technically a step up in class, even though he’s not really meeting a tougher rival than the venerable Kitten’s Cat, who won that last race. They tried routing a bunch of times through the winter and spring, but he’s a true sprinter at heart. Joel Rosario worked out a very good trip for him last time as he just followed the winner into the race, and he almost got to him late. He figures to get some pace to close into, but it’s not as if he has any kind of speed figure edge over this field and he’s likely to be favored. I prefer Quarky’s speed. If you’re willing to throw out that 5-furlong turf sprint at Gulfstream back in April, his form is just rock solid. It’s also apparent that he loves Belmont Park, probably because he seems to specialize in these 6-furlong and 7-furlong sprints, and is probably best at the latter. The real issue with this guy is that he just doesn’t win. He’s been right there at this level on a number of occasions and he just can’t seem to get over the hump. Yet I wouldn’t concede that he’s necessarily a horse that has issues winning races, since he’s a front-running type that has just been unlucky to get run down by superior horses on a few occasions. He figures to be the controlling speed after the scratch of Yes and Yes, and I think he's the right horse to take on this occasion. I could use a few others underneath including Mo Gotcha and Duress. The former is a Jeremiah Englehart trainee who has been conistent on dirt and does have some pedigree to handle the grass. I'm not totally convinced about the surface switch, but I won't be shocked if he runs well. Duress was moving in the right direction at the end of last season, but this will be the toughest field that he's met since his debut.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 9,10,12
Trifecta: 11 with 10 with 6,9,10,12
RACE 7: FAIR LASSIE (#5)
Good Credence is the horse to beat as she returns at the New York-bred N1X level again while facing a softer field than the one she met last time. Yet I was a little disappointed in her effort that day. She made what appeared to be a winning move into contention at the quarter pole but flattened out in the late stages while losing to a couple of today’s rivals. Wailin Josie actually ran a better race that day as she got caught in traffic in upper stretch before angling out to get up for third. The problem with Wailing Josie is that she’s prone to less than ideal trips given her inexperienced rider. I’d use both of these, but I prefer horses coming from other races. Single Verse is somewhat interesting as she switches back to dirt. I liked her trying the turf last time, but she didn’t really show up and also got caught in traffic in upper stretch. She earned some solid speed figures on dirt as a 2-year-old and would be a factor here if she can get back to that kind of form. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Fair Lassie. I know that she looks a little cheaper than those aforementioned rivals, but this is not a particularly strong race for the level. She’s a filly who needs an aggressive ride to be successful, and she just got the wrong trips when she tried this level over the winter at Aqueduct. I thought apprentice Luis Cardenas gave her a perfect ride against claiming company on March 14, and she’s drawn well outside of her main pace rivals here. She has to prove that she’s ready off the layoff but her best speed figures certainly make her fast enough to beat a field of this quality.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,6,8
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 6 - 11
Race 3: 8 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 5: 7 - 10 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 9 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 11 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 10 - 2 - 1A - 5
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 3 - 10 - 11 - 12
RACE 6: VOICE OF SPRING (#9)
Jewel of Arabia was stakes-placed in her career debut as a two-year-old and would have won second time out had she not bolted to the outside fence in the stretch. She was far more professional in her sophomore return last time, but still came up just short in a tight finish. That 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her the horse to beat, but now she faces a couple of second-time starters who finished directly behind her last time, and both have some room to improve. This filly may also take a step forward second off the layoff, but she’s starting to fit the profile of a money-burner. I’m using her prominently, but would be reticent to take another short price. One of those second-time starters from the same race is Vivazano. She took significant early tote action in her debut before drifting up to 10-1 late in the wagering. She showed excellent early speed, getting engaged in a three-way duel on the far turn, before fading in the last furlong. That was an encouraging debut, but this daughter of Verrazano doesn’t have much size to her and her dam was a turf horse, so a surface switch may be in her future. There’s clearly sprint ability here, but now she has to stretch out an extra half-furlong, so I prefer the other second-time starter from that June 12 race. Voice of Spring was completely dead on the tote board in her debut, which is a little surprising considering that she cost $450,000 as a two-year-old in training. She’s bred to be a nice sprinter, as her dam is a half-sister to multiple NY-bred stakes winner Willet. Yet clearly this filly badly needed her debut, racing greenly at the back of the pack, only hitting top gear when it was too late. That said, I don’t want to undersell the effort, as this filly was really motoring through the final furlong despite having to squeeze inside of rivals in upper stretch. Linda Rice is 35 for 91 (38%, $2.96 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. It appears that Voice of Spring has significant ability and I think she’s going to break through this time.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 6,7,10
Trifecta: 9 with 10 with 4,6,7,8
RACE 8: OUR LAST BUCK (#10)
This is a highly competitive race in which you have horses converging from a variety of different class levels. The horse to beat is probably the class dropper I Love Jaxson. This gelding really turned a corner off the claim for Linda Rice last year, reeling off 5 wins in 6 starts dating back to the Saratoga meet. He appeared to have found a good spot to return from the layoff last time at Belmont, but it just looked like he wasn’t quite the same horse that we had gotten accustomed to seeing over the winter. While he was never going to beat Its All Relevant, he was incredibly dull throughout that race, and now Linda Rice is dropping back in for the $40,000 tag. He has to be used, but I prefer to rely on others. Not That Brady is a perfectly viable win candidate as he returns from the layoff. He got thrown into some pretty tough spots as a 3-year-old. The last time that he was competing in an optional claiming race on dirt, he ran a career-best 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure while just barely losing to the once-promising Looking at Bikinis. While he probably won’t get back to that kind of number off the layoff, plenty of his surrounding efforts were solid and he figures to give a good account of himself. The fact that some of his main pace rivals, particularly the speedy Foolish Ghost, have scratched out of this race will help his cause. Of the closers, I would give a long look to Blugrascat’s Smile. He doesn’t win that often anymore, but he typically runs well at this level and should not be overlooked at a square price. I’d use all of these in some capacity, but my top pick is the “now” horse, Out Last Buck. This 6-year-old has just been a completely different horse since Michelle Nevin stretched him out on dirt two starts back. He’s been able to make better use of his tactical speed and has shown a good finishing kick closing off his own fractions. This is by far the toughest field that he’s faced, but he’s coming out of a race that proven to be strong. Yankee Division, Kid d’Oro, and Danny California have all run back out of that June 11 affair to improve their speed figures next time out. Our Last Buck is drawn well outside of the other speed and figures to sit another great stalking trip.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 10 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5,6,7
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