TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 1

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 12 - 9 - 10
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 4 - 12
Race 4:   7 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 6:   9 - 12 - 4 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   10 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 4 - 8 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 1: SINASHACK (#2)
Black ‘n Tan could go favored in this maiden claimer as he drops out of a maiden special weight event at Monmouth. While he finished far back in that debut, he took some money and did a little bit of running early in the race. He also didn’t get the most comfortable trip through the stretch as his rider glued him to the rail for the latter half of the race. The Steve Asmussen barn can obviously improve a second-time starter and it’s a good sign that Irad Ortiz takes over the reins. I’m using him, but it’s unclear if he’s as fast as some of the other runners drawn to his inside. Stretch the Truth in particular has blazing early speed and could be in front for a while. However I’m most interested in the pair of George Weaver dropdowns, both of whom are switching from turf to dirt. Over the past 5 years, Weaver is 5 for 15 (33%, $2.85 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns making that surface switch. While Ghost Stalker may have faced the tougher field in his debut, I prefer Sinashack. This son of Shackleford debuted in a restricted maiden event going 7 furlongs on turf. That race featured a stiff early pace and Sinashack was pressing on the outside in the early going. He was in the mix until the quarter pole at which point his stablemate Whatmakessammyrun took over before going on to a commanding victory. Now he’s getting blinkers for his second start while switching to the main track. He does have a little turf pedigree, but he strikes me as one that should handle this surface and Weaver’s stats give me confidence.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7

RACE 5: RE CREATED (#6)
Brew Pub finally faced state-breds for the first time in his fourth career start last time out. However, he was sprinting on turf that day. He doesn't have an overwhelming turf pedigree and he arguably ran his best race on dirt two back at a route distance, so this may be a more appropriate spot. I’m using him, but he will have to improve to overhaul the potential favorite Work Out. This Leah Gyarmati trainee just makes a ton of sense as the likely favorite in this spot; showed some tenacity when fighting back to secure second in his debut, and followed that up with an improved performance second time out. He now has to stretch out again, but his two most accomplished siblings, Associate and Amberjack, both were best at distances ranging from 7 furlongs to a mile. The one knock is that trainer Leah Gyarmati is just 1 for 53 (2%, $0.13 ROI) with dirt stretch-outs over the past 5 years. I want a different horse out of that September 4 maiden event. Re Created took no money in that unveiling and finished a non-threatening seventh behind Work Out. She was pretty sluggish in the early going and never really picked up while racing wide throughout. I got the impression watching him that more distance would benefit him, and his pedigree also suggests that. Laoban’s progeny are 6-3-3-0 with dirt route starters so far. He’s likely to step forward second time out for an underrated barn and he should be a square price.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7,8

RACE 6: ONE EYED JACK (#9)
If this race stays on turf, I suppose Stanhope is the horse to beat on the dropdown. He’s been facing tougher company at the New York-bred allowance level recently, and he actually ran quite well last time. He chased an honest pace and made an early move to aggressively take over on the far turn before falling apart in the last eighth. I think he’s arguably the most talented horse in this field, but I am a little concerned about the distance. While he broke his maiden going this distance, he did so after setting a glacial early pace. I suspect that he’s at his best going shorter than this. His main rival appears to be Reckless Spirit, who got a nightmare of a trip at Saratoga last time. He was rated in the early portion of that race, but lost his composure heading into the clubhouse turn, attempting to bolt as Luis Saez desperately tried to correct him. All things considered, it’s remarkable that he finished the race and only lost by four lengths. He’d be dangerous here if he put it all together, but he’s hard to completely trust after what happened last time. I want to get a little more creative and explore some less obvious options. My top pick is One Eyed Jack as he makes his turf debut. This horse is out of a dam who was stakes-placed on turf, but he admittedly doesn’t have a ton of turf pedigree on his female side beyond that. However, Uncle Mo is a solid turf influence, and I liked this horse’s turf workout over the Oklahoma course at Saratoga back in early September. It’s obviously a move of desperation at this point for a horse who has exhausted most of his opportunities on dirt, but I still think he could run well here.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,7,12

RACE 7: GOTHAM GALA (#5)
This Pumpkin Pie loses some intrigue after the scratch of possible favorite Alisio, who was a difficult horse to assess as she returned from the layoff. Among those left, Honor Way is definitely a contender based on her recent form. She could be compromised by a potential slow pace in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. However, she appreciates this distance and could assert herself in the last furlong. I’m certainly using her, but my top pick is Gotham Gala. This 5-year-old has struggled to find any consistency this year, but she did put forth a strong effort two back when second to next-out Spinster winner Valiance in the slop. She’s obviously not the easiest horse to trust off her poor effort last time, but I like her turning back in distance. This mare was actually pretty effective in dirt sprits earlier in her career and I think this 7 furlongs could hit her right between the eyes. She has the tactical speed to work out the right trip and she’s obviously superior to the rest of this field if she’s able to produce her top effort.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL

RACE 8: LOVESTRUCK (#10)
Caldee is obviously the horse to beat in this strong edition of the Chelsey Flower. She was very impressive breaking her maiden at Saratoga in her second career start, and she validated that performance in the Miss Grillo last time. Losing to the undefeated Plum Ali is no disgrace, and Caldee had to pick up the pace through some quick interior fractions before settling for second. I think she’s pretty good and she could have a significant pace advantage in a race where most of her primary competitors are closers. I’ll certainly her use her prominently, but my top pick is the Bill Mott second-time starter Lovestruck. This filly missed a planned start in the Miss Grillo, but apparently got over that issue quickly, as she’s back in the entries just a month later. She has a regal pedigree, being a half-sister to Scat Daddy sired by Tapit. Her debut was excellent, as she won handily despite the fact that she was extremely green. She broke inward from the start, forcing herself steady, and still didn’t look like she knew what she was doing in the lane even as she mowed down the leader. Mott doesn’t have great statistics with horses coming off debut wins, but I think this talented filly could be an exception to that pattern. Ingrassia also makes some sense after finishing third in the Jessamine. While the pace of that race may seem quick, it was dominated towards the front end, and she was one of the only horses to make a significant run from the back of the pack. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Oyster Box ran well after beating a solid field in her sprint debut. Graham Motion has poor numbers with stretch-outs like this, but she’s certainly bred to handle added ground.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,7,8
Trifecta: 7,10 with 7,10 with 3,4,6,8

RACE 9: IMPAZIBLE DONNA (#7)
Flashpackinbarbie was a heavy favorite to win a race at this level a few weeks ago when she reared up in the gate and was forced to scratch. She’s obviously a contender once again, but she doesn’t have the same pace advantage this time that she was projected to have in that aborted start last month. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with this filly likely to receive early pressure from Shesasuperfreak, City Temper, and perhaps others. I’m using her, but I think others figure to work out better trips in this large field. Bankers Daughter inherited the favorite’s role in that September 19 allowance race when Flashpackinbarbie scratched, and she ran well to just miss to a longshot winner. She’s a contender at this level once again, but I prefer a filly who is stepping up in class. Impazible Donna lost by a half-length to Bankers Daughter when she returned from a layoff at Saratoga, and I thought she stepped forward in her second start back last time when she got the job done earlier this month. She had to be used in the early going of that race to pressure her main rival Munnings Muse. She put that filly away and then kicked on again when challenged in the stretch to hold on for the victory. She’s versatile enough to come from the off the pace if they go quickly up front this time, and she still has plenty of upside in a race where we basically know what we’re going to get from many of the other contenders.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,8,11

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 31

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 11 - 13 - 4
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 6 - 12
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 12 - 1 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 10:   11 - 8 - 4 - 14

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1: CAUSE I SAID SO (#1)

RACE 2: TONED UP (#3)

RACE 7: JERRY THE NIPPER (#4)

RACE 8: SPACE LAUNCH (#7)

RACE 9: MAJESTIC DUNHILL (#5)

Picks & Plays for Friday, October 30

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   11 - 12 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 4:   7 - 10 - 1 - 9
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 7:   8 - 3 - 4 - 13
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 7 - 14 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 1: HIGHWAY BOUND (#6)
The two first time starters drawn towards the inside figure to attract most of the support here. Digital Future is by Street Boss, who wins with 16% of his juvenile debut starters. The dam failed to win in 4 starts, achieving her best result going a mile on dirt. The only sibling to race is dirt winner Striking Speed, and the dam is a half-sister to Mask, so this seems like an appropriate spot. Furthermore, Chad Brown is 11 for 35 (31%, $2.03 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in dirt sprints at Belmont over the past 5 years. The works at Monmouth look solid, and it would be no surprise if this one is ready to fire on debut. Nepotism should also attract support. This son of Union Rags is out of a dam who achieved her only career victory going a mile on synthetic, but was perhaps best on turf. This colt's two half-siblings are both dirt winners, topped by Canteen. This horse has reportedly been working well. However, Jonathan Thomas is 0 for 21 with 2-year-old first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. I prefer experience in this situation, and I want to give another chance to Highway Bound. This colt obviously didn’t do any running in his debut, but I don’t think that effort is quite as poor as it seems. He broke slowly and was actually traveling well in the early stages before just giving up at the quarter pole. The margin of defeat was large, but his rider really didn’t persevere with him late. He was working well prior to that start, and he’s bred to do much better as a son of multiple Grade 1 winner Seventh Street.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5

RACE 5: HARDCORE FOLKLORE (#3)
Wushu Warrior seems like the horse to beat as he tries to win back-to-back races at this level. However, he benefited from a speed-favoring track that appeared to be favoring rail runners when he won on Sep. 25. He obviously has prior form that would make him tough and he could be the controlling speed once again. I just didn’t want to take him as the favorite after he went off at 6-1 last time. The best alternative that I can find is Hardcore Folklore. This 4-year-old has perhaps been facing weaker company at Monmouth, but the claim by Wayne Potts seems meaningful. Potts is a remarkable 31 for 141 (22%, $2.26 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. Furthermore, this horse was sent out by a 5% trainer last time, and he actually ran a decent race, albeit with a less than stellar ride. He was taken 4-wide into the first turn as no attempt was made to save ground. He then dropped back on the backstretch before again moving wide into the lane before flattening out. That was going a mile and he’s always been best at shorter distances, so he should benefit from the cutback. I prefer him to the other runners who are likely to take money, including Deep Sea, whose form has been tailing off even for the Orlando Noda stable.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,8,9
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,2,4,9

RACE 7: SWEET KISSES (#8)
This race remains pretty interesting even after getting rained off the turf. On dirt, Fiftyshays Ofgreen and My Sweet Wife both figure to attract support. The former makes her first start off a trainer switch to Linda Rice, but I’m a little concerned about the turnback in distance for her. She strikes me as a filly that relishes routes, so even this 7 furlongs could be a little sharp for her. My Sweet Wife does make some sense after breaking her maiden at this trip in an other off-the-turf affair. However, she is stepping up into a tougher spot and was entered for turf again. Among those who were intended for grass, I’m most interested in Sweet Kisses. It doesn’t appear that there will be a ton of speed among those who figure to remain in a dirt version of this race, so she could find herself on or near the lead through moderate early fractions. While she has improved on turf recently, her career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure (102) came in her second career start sprinting on dirt. At first glance it seems like her form ailed off after that, but she had some excuses, particularly when she returned in February at Oaklawn Park. She did not get the best ride that day, as she got buried inside and lost all momentum in traffic in upper stretch. I think she can still run on the main track, and this appears to be a favorable spot for her. At a bigger price, I would also use Madam Maclean underneath. While she's only raced on turf, she's bred to handle dirt as a daughter of Maclean's Music and a half-sister to dirt stakes winner Tres Borrachos.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,13,16
Trifecta: 8 with 3,4,13 with 3,4,9,13,16

RACE 10: JUDGE ALEXANDER (#5)
This is another race that should hold together pretty well coming off the turf and being run over the main track. Tercero would have been favored on turf, and he’s probably still the horse to beat on the dirt. His dirt form is solid, as he ran fast races as a 2-year-old, and confirmed that he was back in form when fourth in a strong maiden event at Saratoga two back. I’d be most worried about the distance. While he handled a route on the turf last time, routing on dirt can be slightly more demanding. Furthermore, he may encounter a wet track, and he has performed better over dry going in the past. The main track only entrants are obviously worth considering, though I feel that Top of the Mint and Kingfish have had their chances. The former is also questionable going this far, and Kingfish has just been slow in all of his prior starts. I’m more interested in a newer face, so I’m taking a shot with Judge Alexander, who was entered for turf. This horse actually ran a decent race in his debut. He was off slowly but was making up some ground in deep stretch. He was still beaten over 12 lengths, but he only finished 3 lengths behind Tercero and that was a fast race. Furthermore, Raven Rocks came out of a similar finish in that race to win an off-the-turf race here two weeks ago. Obviously Judge Alexander’s last race was poor, but he was out of position right from the start when at the back of the pack behind a slow pace. Jose Ortiz didn’t persevere with him that day, exaggerating the margin of defeat. I think he can bounce back on the stretch-out.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 7,12,14,16

Picks & Plays for Thursday, October 29

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   14 - 15 - 4 - 13
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 4:   7 - 15 - 12 - 2
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   15 - 14 - 11 - 6
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 12 - 13
Race 9:   15 - 14 - 16 - 13

PLAYS

RACE 1: MICROSCOPE (#4)
After the scratch of Fried Rice King this becomes a much softer spot. Allured could inherit the favorite's role, but I'm pretty skeptical of this runner. He did show improvement last time second off the layoff for Orlando Noda, and he's previously shown the ability to handle a wet track. However, he still hasn never recaptured his best form for this barn and now he's dropping in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. I prefer another class dropper. Microscope has yet to run as fast as some others, but he has kept strong company in his recent races. This gelding had little chance against the likes of Danny California, Harris Bay, or Bears Mafia at the New York-bred allowance level and now he’s dropping down to an appropriate spot. He’s also stretching out in distance, which I like. Although his past performances may not explicitly suggest that he’s better going longer, I think he’s run subtly well in all of his route starts. That was especially true in a couple of one-mile events over the winter at Aqueduct. Furthermore, there is rain in the forecast on Thursday and he earned both of his career victories over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,3,5

RACE 4: MCERIN (#7)
With this race getting taken off the turf, the Main Track Only entrants will probably attract plenty of support, but I’m most intrigued by turf entrant McErin. This horse has been a bit of a disappointment since returning to turf this summer for trainer Todd Pletcher, but now he makes his first start off the claim for Tom Morley. He’s at least run competitive speed figures in his last two turf starts, so it’s not as if his form has totally fallen apart. Furthermore, he ran well in a couple of his dirt route starts earlier this year, specifically on Feb. 2 and on July 11, when he was contesting a fast pace. Those races were probably too far for him, and he should appreciate the cutback in distance on dirt. I prefer him to Home Run Maker, who isn’t totally trustworthy based on his inconsistent recent form, and Vineyard Sound, who beat a much weaker field last time. I would rather use horses like Skyler’s Scramjet and Durkin’s Call underneath at bigger prices.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,12,15
Trifecta: 7 with 2,12,15 with 2,12,14,15

RACE 7: SEASIDE RETREAT (#2)
The two fillies likely to attract the most support exit the same race won by impressive Juddmonte debut winner Starfront. While neither Undine or Tactical Move was able to get close to the winner that day, they both put in encouraging efforts have have room to improve in this spot. Tactical Move figures to go favored as she makes her second career start after taking a bit of money in that unveiling. She broke a step slowly and was keen at the back of the pack before staying on decently for fourth in the stretch. All things considered it was a solid effort and Bill Mott has decent statistics with second time starters. Undine also has a right to step forward as she was returning from a nearly yearlong layoff when she finished third behind Starfront last time. She was forced to race wide around the turn and just flattened out in the stretch. She’s clearly improved since her two-year-old season and makes plenty of sense as an alternative. I’ll use both of these, but I’m most interested in a filly who is returning from a layoff in this race. Seaside Retreat raced just once as a two-year-old, finishing a distant second behind eventual Grade 2 Demoiselle winner Lake Avenue. While she didn’t break any stopwatches rallying through the stretch, I got the impression that she was just being given a start. She didn’t take much money, and Joel Rosario handled her conservatively during the race. She’s certainly bred to do better as a daughter of Grade 2 winner Boca Grande. Now she’s returning as a mature 3-year-old for Shug McGaughey, who has strong numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 5 for 17 (29%, $3.39 ROI) with maidens coming off 180+ day layoffs at NYRA. Furthermore, that recent 5-furlong bullet workout at Fair Hill suggests that she’s doing well coming into this race.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6

Picks & Plays for Sunday, October 25

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   8 - 10 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 10 - 11 - 9
Race 8:   1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 9:   6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 12 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 1: SAY MOI (#1)
Expected favorite Mrs. Danvers was rushed along following her return from the layoff this summer leading up to that failed Grade 1 attempt in the Test. She was fairly disappointing going this distance back on July 9, but keep in mind that she was running back just 19 days after her encouraging 3-year-old debut. She redeemed herself going the same trip last time, as she gamely rallied up the rail in deep stretch after finding traffic and having to alter course in mid-stretch. It’s interesting that Shug adds blinkers to a filly who already gets headstrong in her races. That said, it does feel like they’re slowly but surely figuring things out and she’s undoubtedly the horse to beat. However, I want to try to beat her with her main rival at a slightly better price. Say Moi has been a little disappointing in her last couple of starts at this level, twice failing to hit the board. However, some excuses can be offered. It’s possible that she just didn’t handle that demanding two-turn distance two back, and then last time she got a poor trip. She was shuffled back to last immediately after the start, saved ground on the turn, but then found herself stuck in traffic in upper stretch. She’s better than that and she figures to rebound here. A one-turn mile should be within her scope and she should be right on top of a moderate pace.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2 with 4

RACE 4: WINDFALL PROFIT (#1)
I suspected that Windfall Profit had turned a corner following her maiden victory at Saratoga, when she dominated an overmatched field with ease. While that race didn’t earn a gigantic speed figure, she just looked so much more powerful than in her prior starts, and she carried that momentum forward to her first start against winners. However, she was prevented from achieving back-to-back victories by a disadvantageous trip. The early pace was crawling, and her rider strangely elected to restrain her at the back of the pack. She was always out of position and therefore was forced to launch a 4-wide run around the far turn. She still almost got there, but that adventurous journey ultimately took its toll. Now she lands in a similar spot and notably gets Joel Rosario, who rode her to that maiden victory, back aboard. As long as she gets a smooth trip this time, I think she’s going to beat this field. Eye of Soldier also ran well in that September 18 race, but she had a slightly better trip and just wasn’t quick enough to accelerate past the leaders late. I’m using her underneath, along with Capital Structure, who was compromised by a very slow pace in her first start against winners last time.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 1 with 3,7 with 2,3,7

RACE 7: FLY FIGHT WIN (#5)
Leah Gyarmati has the two leading contenders in this maiden claiming event. Wicked Happy and Hard won have faced off before, trading decisions in their last two meetings. Hard Won most recently outran her stablemate to the wire in a September 26 race at this level, but Wicked Happy returned out of that affair to be third at a slightly higher level last time. I think we basically know what we’re going to get from these two fillies at this point, and one of them may win if no one else in this field steps forward. I’m certainly using them, but there is one new face at this level who I think merits consideration. Fly Fight Win is dropping in for a tag for the first time after failing to make an impact in three starts at the maiden special weight level. She didn’t run particularly well in her 6 furlong return in September, but I thought she had a legitimate excuse when she stretched out at Monmouth 15 days ago. She found herself on the rail around the far turn behind a runner who was backing up, and she just lost all her momentum while stymied inside. She eventually found a clear path in the stretch but didn’t seem keen to run through inside. I believe she has more to offer than we saw that day and perhaps the drop in class and addition of blinkers can wake her up.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,9,10,11

RACE 9: SWEET BYE AND BYE (#6)
Save for the longshot Story Time, you can make a valid case for all of the other entrants in this Athenia. Perhaps then it’s unwise of me to land on the morning line favorite Sweet Bye and Bye, but I do think we’ll get every bit of that 3-1 price, if not more, given how wide open this race is. Sweet Bye and Bye has been in career form now as a 5-year-old for Tony Dutrow. While she’s only won once since returning from the layoff this summer, she’s run well in all three of her starts. That was especially true last time when she chased a very fast pace set by the talented Blowout before both of them were swallowed up by the perfect trip winner Viadera. A repeat of that performance will make her tough here, and she figures to get a more favorable trip tracking what should be a moderate pace set by Mitchell Road. Her main rival is probably Call Me Love, who gets significant class relief after facing some of the best turf horses in the country in the Diana. She does own a couple of speed figures that would make her pretty formidable against this field, but I haven’t been thrilled with most of her races in this country. I’m using her underneath, but I think others will offer better value. One of those is her stablemate Feel Glorious. She didn’t run well behind Sweet Bye and Bye in the Noble Damsel last time, but I thought the quick pace of that race took her and many other closers out of their comfort zones. She’s best when she can get held up behind a moderate tempo and burst through in the stretch. She also doesn’t mind a little give in the ground, which she could encounter on Sunday. Chad Brown has entered three fillies, but I’m not really that scared of any of them. Altea never wins, and She’s Got You and Tapit Today would both have to improve to upset the favorites.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 3,6
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5,7,8 with 2,3

RACE 10: DATA ANALYTICS (#3)
I don’t know what happened with Data Analytics last time when she finished last as the favorite going a mile. However, the fact that Chad Brown is bringing her back just 21 days later at the exact same class level leads me to believe that he expects her to rebound with a better performance. I was impressed by her victory at Saratoga when she set a legitimate pace and dominated a decent field of maidens. Given her ample early speed, perhaps shorter distances will ultimately be better for her, so I like this slight turnback to 7 furlongs. She does have to deal with some other speed again, but I would imagine Javier Castellano will let her roll up front, especially after she fought his restraint in the early going last time. Her main rival once again is Fresco, who finished a closing third in that same October 4 race. She, too, may be aided by the turnback in distance, but I’ve never really seen her take a step forward since she made her debut at Gulfstream last winter. She may win if no one else steps up, but I think others possess more upside. At a much bigger price, I would also throw Kinky Sox into the mix underneath. This filly put in a decent late run going 6 furlongs last time in a race that was dominated up front by the stakes-bound Robin Sparkles. She once was better on turf than dirt and that last performance leads me to believe that she may still have some competitive races in her.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,8,10,12

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 24

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 10 - 9 - 12
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   10 - 6 - 11 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 10:   8 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 11:   5 - 7 - 4 - 8

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 2: CHASING CARA (#4)

RACE 3: BROOKLYN STRONG (#6)

RACE 5: U SHOULD B DANCING (#10)

RACE 6: MRS. ORB (#7)

RACE 9: TIMELY TRADITION (#9)

RACE 10: EVALUATOR (#8)

Picks & Plays for Friday, October 23

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 1- 10 - 5
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 10:   4 - 1 - 12 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 5: ACCESSIBLE (#2)
There are horses dropping out of maiden special weight company to consider, but they have some questions to answer. The most logical of those is Holy Emperor, who lost by a nose at the maiden special weight level at Saratoga on August 1, and is now dropping back in for a tag. However, this colt has done his best work at the 11-furlong distance and hasn’t been quite as effective going shorter. He might be able to beat this field if he repeats the race he ran at a mile on June 20, but I didn’t want to take a shor price on him. Till Then is perhaps more intriguing, though a bigger wild card. He last raced in November 2018 against some stiff competition on dirt. He’s making his turf debut off the lengthy layoff, but he’s certainly bred for this surface, being by Point of Entry out of a dam who handled turf. I’m using both of them, but I’m most interested in a horse who has already competed at this level. Accessible finished behind today’s rival Vicarage in a similar spot last time, but I thought the Mike Maker trainee had the much tougher trip. Accessible was squeezed back at the start and found himself towards the back of the pack. That was not where you wanted to be in a race that was dominated towards the front end. Due to that slow pace, Accessible got rank down the backstretch and Jose Lezcano allowed him to make a premature rush past Vicarage up into a stalking position. Moves at that point in the race rarely work out, and Accessible predictably tired in the stretch. I think he’s going to get a much different kind of trip under Jose Ortiz here, and I expect him to take a step forward now in his third start for Mike Maker.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7

RACE 7: CHARLIE MCCOY (#4)
I’m not thrilled with the likely short prices in this race. Fort Worth figures to be a short price again after he was beaten as the 3-10 favorite at this level last time. While he got a somewhat tentative ride that day, I didn’t like what I saw from him in the stretch and wonder if he’s starting to tail off following a strong return this summer. Built to Suit is even less trustworthy after putting in an uncharacteristically poor performance last month. Notably, he was entered for the $40,000 tag and scratched out of the same race Fort Worth exits. Given his performance last time, this lower level is where he belongs these days. After the scratch of my original top pick Bears Mafia, I'm elevating Charlie McCoy, who I'm perfectly content to endorse in this spot. This 5-year-old is more than capable of winning a race at this level on his best day. The major question is whether he can get back to top form as he returns from a lengthy layoff. While this isn't exactly Michelle Nevin's forte, Charlie McCoy finds himself in a good spot off the layoff. He could play out as the controlling speed without Bears Mafia in the mix, and seven furlongs has been his best distance.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 9: AMERICANUS (#3)
Money Moves is clearly the horse to beat as he moves back into allowance company after contesting the Kentucky Derby last time. That classic was always going to be a tall order for this lightly-raced runner and he just wasn’t up to the challenge. However, he’s supposed to be tough to beat here if he merely runs back to his prior two efforts. That said, I’m concerned that he might be overbet. He was aided by a rail bias when he won his second start at Gulfstream in March. And while he ran much faster when losing that photo finish to Prioritize at Saratoga in July, that 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned doesn’t exactly make him a standout in this field. He’s the horse to beat, but I have no interest in betting him at close to even-money odds. I can understand making a case for some of the older horses in this field – particularly Expert, who has plenty of prior speed figures that are faster than Money Moves – but I’m most interested in some of the other 3-year-olds. Three Technique could appreciate the switch back to dirt after not really stepping forward in a couple of turf experiments. Yet the best alternative to the favorite might be Americanus. This runner returns from a layoff while making his first start off a trainer switch to Shug McGaughey. He was heading in the right direction for his prior barn, matching Money Moves’ best TimeformUS Speed Figure – 111 – when he finished third in the Unbridled behind Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr. Post. McGaughey doesn’t have the strongest stats in this situation, but this horse has reportedly been working in company with his 4-year-old star runner Performer. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL

RACE 10: ENGRAVE (#1)
A couple of runners in this field have positive turf experience, and they’re likely to attract most of the support. Scarlett Sky has finished second in both career starts, and was likely beaten by a pair of talented runners in Public Sector and Space Launch. He’s obviously a contender, but I would have liked to see him take more of a step forward in his second start after his strong debut. Secret Potion is one of two runners for Chad Brown and could go off as the favorite as he drops out of the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. He was just in over his head that day as the local horses had the upper hand. While he ran well in his debut at Saratoga, he had a perfect trip setting a slow pace that day. I’m using him, but I actually prefer Chad Brown’s other horse Engrave. This son of Flatter gets on turf for the first time, and his sire isn’t the best turf influence. However, this colt is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winning turf horse Beach Patrol, and one other sibling to race also showed a strong preference for turf. He showed ability in his first couple of dirt stars, and that bullet workout over the Oklahoma course up at Saratoga gives me confidence that he’s going to take to this surface. He’s my top selection, but there are some others to consider. Perhaps the most intriguing horse in this field is the well-bred Hachure. This son of Tapit is out of the productive dam Hachita, who has dropped Group 1 winner Announce and Group 1-placed Mexican Gold among her many winning turf foals. The fact that Bill Mott has secured Irad Ortiz for this colt’s debut may be meaningful.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,12