TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Friday, July 1

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   3 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 10 - 1/1A - 6
Race 5:   6 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1A
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   8 - 11 - 12 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: LUCKY PERIDOT (#4)

If I could be confident that #7 Juxtapose would get back to her best races from last season, she would be an easy selection in this race. She was meeting some pretty good rivals at Woodbine last summer and fall, and she actually ran pretty well in a few of those spots on both turf and Tapeta. There’s been a trainer change since then, for the same owner, and she resurfaced at Belterra sprinting 5 furlongs last time. I didn’t love that effort, but she had a right to need a race and should appreciate more ground. It’s hard to completely trust her as she drops in for a tag now for William Morey, but she is the one to beat. I’m not thrilled with the other horse that could take money, #4 Blue Atras. She has run well fresh before, but I thought she was beating weaker company when she won here last October. She’s somewhat pace dependent and has run best against cheaper. I prefer #5 Lucky Peridot. This mare has plenty of back class, having run competitively against stakes company in California earlier in her career. She’s clearly not in that kind of form anymore, but I think she’s done well when realistically spotted. She was a visually impressive winner three back, and then had no chance against tougher in the Monroe, a race that didn’t feature much pace. I don’t want to get too caught up in her dirt race last time, but she got a poor ride that day, as she made a middle move to go from last to second at the half-mile before fading. This barn hasn’t sent too many runners to NYRA, but has done well out of town.

WIN: #5 Lucky Peridot, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 3: NORDIC LIGHT (#3)

I’m not way against #4 No Code, who figures to go favored here. He obviously appreciated the added ground last time, and he gets an extra sixteenth to work with here. However, he was never a serious threat to winner Endowed, and the ground he made up in the late stages was primarily a function of the winner being geared down over the last furlong. I’m hoping that he loses to a similar kind of runner here, as Christophe Clement sends out #3 Nordic Light, who will try to emulate stablemate Endowed. Both horses made their debuts routing on turf and Clement has outstanding numbers with this specific move. Over the past 5 years, he is 5 for 6 (83%, $4.45 ROI) going from turf maiden special weight to dirt maiden claiming. This horse doesn’t have much turf pedigree, and there’s plenty of dirt breeding on the dam’s side. He finished far back in his debut, but he was conservatively ridden that day. Blinkers go on as he switches to Dylan Davis, and I think we’re going to see a better effort.

WIN: #3 Nordic Light, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4: CATCH THAT PARTY (#5)

I acknowledge that both halves of this Jordan Wycoff entry can win, but I’m not thrilled with either of them. #1 Practice Squad has been in strong form since getting claimed by Joe Sharp, and he’s coming off an effort that makes him competitive here. However, he got a great trip setting a moderate pace that day in a race that was dominated by horses who stayed inside. It’s hard to see him getting as lucky this time, especially with the speedy Nicholas James in the field. #1A Ricochet also wants to be forwardly placed as he makes his first start off a trainer switch to Mike Maker. I didn’t think he had much of an excuse to lose at Monmouth last time, but he has other races that make him competitive. They’re both contenders, but entries like this are almost always underlays. I much prefer Mike Maker’s other runner #5 Catch That Party. This horse had shown ability when previously in Jeremiah Englehart’s barn last year, running competitively against New York-bred allowance company. Claimed by low-profile connections at Gulfstream, he subsequently made two starts against tougher company this winter and didn’t even run that badly when a huge price on Jan. 30. He dropped to a realistic level last time and surprised a field at 17-1, flying up the rail to win going away at the end. He was an astute claim that day by Mike Maker and Michael Dubb. That pair is 5 for 12 (42%, $2.26 ROI) first off the claim together on turf over the past 2 years. I like that he’s being moved up into a protected spot and Joel Rosario should fit this horse perfectly given the way he ran last time. The other horse that I would also want to throw into the mix is #10 Reckless Spirit. He was inside last time in that June 5 race that Practice Squad also exits. However, he got a very tentative ride and was in traffic for much of the way until getting free late.

WIN: #5 Catch That Party, at 8-5 or greater
USE: 10

RACE 6: TWILIGHT DREAMS (#6)

#4 Hoodooland, an expensive Medaglia d'Oro-sired half-sister to G1 La Troienne winner Salty, made her debut in a small field at Aqueduct back in April where she put in a solid effort to be second behind dominant winner Speaks for Itself. The ground she gained at the end is a little misleading, as the winner was geared down a long way out. The third-place finisher from that affair returned to win her next start, though didn’t earn much of a speed figure. Shug McGaughey is 6 for 38 (16%, $1.12 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, so these types are sometimes overbet. I’m a little surprised that McGaughey keeps her sprinting rather than stretching out, and she does face some intriguing first time starters. Chad Brown has a pair of runners in here who both could attract some attention. #3 Empire Hope is a half-sister to Grade 1 Humana Distaff winner Sassy Image, and #1 Emmylou is a half-sister to G1 Spinster winner Valiance. Neither one would be a surprise, but I’m more intrigued by some firsters drawn outside. #7 Tizzy in the Sky is a little interesting even though she lacks star power in her pedigree. Ray Handal has done well with firsters over the past two years, but she sports some quick workouts for her debut and Rosario climbs aboard. My top pick is #6 Twilight Dreams, who is one of two in here for trainer Bill Mott. This homebred daughter of 12% debut sire Curlin is out of a Grade 2-placed mare who has produced 4 winners from 6 foals to race. The best of those is this one’s full sibling Curalina (13-6-3-2, $1.5 million, 105 Beyer), a two-time Grade 1 winner routing on dirt. Bill Mott is 9 for 36 (25%, $3.16 ROI) with 3YO+ female first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She’s done all of her prep work up in Saratoga, logging a few fast workout times. That bullet 5-furlong drill on May 20 matches this barn’s G1-placed 4YO colt Nova Rags, and the recent drill on June 21 matches G2 Gazelle winner Nostalgic. This one might be a runner and could be ready to fire even though she's bred to go farther than this.

WIN: #6 Twilight Dreams, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,7

RACE 8: KINENOS (#3)

Likely favorite #4 Kuramata has lost twice at this level at odds of even-money and 3-5, the latter time when part of an entry. This Irish-bred 5-year-old obviously has some talent, but he’s had trouble putting races together and still looks like a work in progress. He has a tendency to lug in and race greenly during his races, so he’s not the easiest horse to ride. He’s faced some pretty good rivals so far this year, and is arguably getting class relief against today’s field. Yet he has to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles for the first time and will almost surely be a short price for connections that always take money. I’m going with logical alternative #3 Kinenos. That last start had the feel of a prep. Running for his available allowance condition, he was closing mildly late in a race that featured a pretty honest pace up front. He just couldn't quite reel in the leaders, who had snuck away on the front end. That 8.5-furlong distance is on the short side for a horse that wants to go much farther, so he’ll appreciate the stretch-out to 1 1/4 mile here. He has finished in the exacta twice at this distance before, including a victory at today’s level over this track in April of 2021. I’m not too bothered that he’s risked for the $62,500 tag, as this is just a realistic placement. He needs some pace up front but should be charging late if Javier Castellano can work out a trip. I also want to use #5 Offlee Naughty, who should be a bigger price. This 4-year-old put in some nice efforts in California last year, winning a N1X allowance event over 1 3/8 miles to close out his season. Obviously distance is no issue for this guy, and he ran a competitive race at this level back in February at Santa Anita. He didn’t run well at Churchill last time, but I don’t want to put too much stock in that race given the way the course has played and the shorter distance. Trainer Michael McCarthy is 0 for 8 at NYRA over the past 5 years, though 4 of those did hit the board, all in graded stakes.

WIN: #3 Kinenos, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Offlee Naughty, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9: CHARGER (#8)

The favorites in here don’t do a whole lot for me. I especially don’t want #6 Fast N Fearious if he takes money again. He got bet down to 8-5 against a tougher starter allowance field last time and readily gave up after setting the pace. He had handled turf in his prior start when facing a field similar to this one, but it just feels like the connections got the best out of him that day. #12 Boom Boom Kaboom has run well in each of his last two turf starts, and arguably should have won both of them, as he was buried in traffic until deep stretch last time. He’s never been the most reliable win candidate, but it does seem like he’s turned a corner for George Weaver. I’m more interested in a couple of alternatives. #11 Standup has simply faced tougher company in each of his starts since getting claimed by James Ferraro. He didn’t even run that badly either time, and he figures to appreciate the slight turnback to 6 furlongs. He makes plenty of sense and arguably should be favored, though I doubt he will. My top pick is #8 Charger. He’s primarily raced on dirt, but this horse has a couple of prior turf races that aren’t so bad. Among those is a narrow loss to Never Explain at Indiana last year, and that one returned from that race to just miss against much tougher at Saratoga. His only turf start since then came going 1 3/16 miles, which is just too far. He’s since run his best races going sprint distances, and it feels like Linda Rice claimed him with the intention of switching over to turf. He certainly has the pedigree to be a grass horse, by Point of Entry from a Phipps female family.

WIN: #8 Charger, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 11

Picks & Plays for Thursday, June 30

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 4 - 1A - 3
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   1A - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   9 - 6 - 10 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 10 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 9:   9 - 8 - 4 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 3: SPOOKY ROAD (#1A)

I probably pegged #5 Solib too high on the morning line, as she figures to vie for favoritism in this spot. Many will see the obvious class drop as she makes her first start for a claiming tag, and she’s earned a couple of competitive speed figures on turf. I haven’t seen much progression from her since she ran so well in the Tepin last season, though she is still earning solid speed figures this year. I thought she should have put up more of a fight when fading at this distance two back, and horses have come back to run poorly out of that race. She can obviously win, but I didn’t need her at a short price. #7 Thataint Tooshabby is more appealing to me. She ran well to win at Gulfstream back in February with a strong late run. She was simply in over her head next time out against open N1X foes. Then last time she didn’t get the most clever ride when allowed to run off on the front end through quick fractions. She can rebound here as Mark Casse has found an appropriate spot for her return. I’ll use her, but I’m more intrigued by #1A Spooky Road at a bigger price. I know she looks pretty light on speed figures coming into this, but we haven’t seen her since March. I thought she really stepped forward to win last time, making a determined rally down the center of the course to get up. A few horses exiting that race have since run faster, and I think it’s noteworthy that sharp connections purchased her for $55k at auction in April. This is a logical spot to debut for the new barn, and I won’t be surprised when she shows improvement.

WIN: #1A Spooky Road, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: MUSICAL AMERICA (#5)

#2 Crypto Cash will probably win this race as a heavy favorite, but I have some reservations. He’s going to take money based on that 92 Beyer he earned last time out, and I have some doubts about that number since it was a career-best for each of the top three finishes. TimeformUS has the race much slower (98), which is more in line with Crypto Cash’s prior efforts. He’s been in solid form recently, and has finished in the exacta in 6 of his last 7 starts. However, I just think he may get overbet as he’s claimed back by Rob Atras. It's also hard for me to ignore the likely pace scenario, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts the favorite towards the back of the pack in a situation favoring the front-runner. That early leader is likely to be #5 Musical America, who figures to be the longest shot in this field. Many will dismiss him based on his recent set of results, but he’s run better than it might appear in a few of those races. Though he was only claimed for $10k by these connections, he didn’t run that badly when immediately stepped up into a $62,500 optional claimer in his next start. He also held his own at the $32k level two back after failing to make the lead over some superior rivals. His last effort was a poor, but that was a very hot pace for the distance, as all of the speeds fell apart in what was a fast race for the level. Given the favorable pace setup, I think he can rebound here for connections have delivered with longshots from time to time.

WIN: #5 Musical America, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 5: CONQUIST (#9)

Both Christophe Clement runners figure to attract support in this New York-bred maiden special weight event, but I can’t say that I’m convinced either one is worth taking at a short price. #5 Topic Changer is the one with experience, having closed for second in a maiden claiming event on debut. He didn’t get a particularly strong speed figure for the effort, and finished far behind the winner while just barely edging out some inferior rivals. He has to do better to contend here. #10 Olympic Dreams is perhaps more interesting as a first time starter for a barn that does well with these types. However, it’s not really a turf pedigree, as his dam achieved all of her wins on turf, and his lone sibling is dirt runner Frost Me. That said, he is by Medaglia d’Oro so he does have a right to handle this surface. It won’t be a shock if he fares well here, but I don’t need him as the potential favorite. I’m interested in a couple of runners trying this surface for the first time. The more logical of the two is #6 Compromiser, who merely has to transfer his solid dirt debut performance to the grass. That’s often easier said than done, but he does have pedigree to handle turf, being a half-brother to 2 surface winners. He lacked speed in his debut, but was really finishing with interest, as Trakus caught him getting his final quarter in 23.51 seconds. He goes out for low-profile connections, but he appears to have real ability in a race where others have yet to prove their quality. My top pick is #9 Conquist. He obviously has to take a step forward with the surface switch, but I’ve been waiting for this colt to get a chance on the grass. Nyquist is just a mediocre turf influence, getting 10% turf winners overall, and there’s limited pedigree on the dam’s side. Yet this horse just moves like one that should take to turf. He has a big, loping stride that should lend itself well to stretching out on the grass. I would have liked to see him run a bit better in his return last time, but John Kimmel doesn’t do that well off layoffs. Kimmel is, however, 5 for 33 (15%, $4.83 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time over the past 5 years. There isn’t much speed in this field, so he should be able to get to the front end through moderate fractions, and I’ll find out if he can handle turf at a square price.

WIN: #9 Conquist, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 8: BALTHUS (#1)

#7 Easter figures to be pretty tough as he drops out of the Grade 1 Man O’ War into this N1X allowance event. He actually ran pretty well in that graded stakes test, finishing just 2 3/4 lengths behind Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir. That was going today’s 1 3/8 miles distance, and he earned a speed figure that towers over this field. I am a little concerned that his performance last time is somewhat attributable to the nature of turf racing, in which inferior horses can get carried along to faster numbers by superior competition. However, he had also shown ability in his stateside debut when closing to get up for 3rd against a tougher field at this level. He makes plenty of sense, but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price given my minor reservations. #2 Q F Seventy Five should play out as the one to catch. It’s a little surprising to see him stretching out in distance after he ran off in the early going at 9 furlongs last time. He surely ran the best race that day, as the pace was on the quick side, but he paid the price for those enterprising tactics. Rosario has to get him to settle better this time, but he’s clearly in great form right now and is due to break through at this level. My top pick is #1 Balthus. I can’t say that I love him in this spot, but it just feels like he’s a horse who has been slow to come around for Chad Brown. His first couple of starts were pretty poor, but he’s really improved since getting gelded over the winter. I thought he closed well to just miss two back, and he was much the best last time, when running to the wire dueling with a riderless horse well ahead of the pack. The further stretch-out in distance should suit this son of Galileo and he’s drawn well inside. I would want a square price on him, and this barn does take money, but it feels like the two aforementioned runners have to be shorter on the tote board.

WIN: #1 Balthus, at 7-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, June 26

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   12 - 10 - 8 - 4
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   9 - 5 - 1 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 4: SAINT TAPIT (#1)

#4 Triple Elvis could take money here in his 3-year-old return. He was a bit of a disappointment as a juvenile, losing each of his last two starts when favored at 4-5 and even-money. He did face a pretty good field on Sep. 30, as third-place finisher Mo Donegal came back to win and subsequently won the G1 Belmont Stakes. Yet he wasn’t meeting a particularly strong field of maidens last time and still came up short. He’s half-brother to G2 turf winner Made You Look, so he may ultimately want a surface switch. Brown sticks with dirt for now, and he’s the one to beat among those with experience. I just think he could prove vulnerable to a well-meant firster, and there could be a few of those in here. I’m most interested in #1 Saint Tapit, who debuts for Todd Pletcher. This homebred is by 13% debut sire Tapit. His dam Havre de Grace (16-9-4-2, $2.5 million, 111 Beyer) won three Grade 1s including the Woodward and was the 2011 Horse of the Year. All 4 of her foals are winners, including 3 full-siblings, and one of those, Graceful Princess, was a G3-winning dirt router. Todd Pletcher does well with 3-year-old firsters overall, and he is 10 for 28 (36%, $3.03 ROI) with firsters in dirt sprints ridden by Luis Saez over the past year. This flashy chestnut colt has been working well for months. Pletcher drilled him in company with Grade 1-placed Charge It on June 5, and with Grade 3 winner Wit back in March. It appears that this guy has some talent, and he looks dangerous if he can work out a trip from the rail. Yet there are other firsters to consider. #4 Golden Alchemist has apparently been working well down at Monmouth, and he’s a son of good debut sire Nyquist. Even #6 Upper Level and #7 Flute Master look a little interesting, as the former has posted some fast workouts and the latter is a son of Gun Runner with plenty of pedigree in the second generation.

WIN: #1 Saint Tapit, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 5: MY SWEET WIFE (#12)

#10 Blissful Change looks competitive as she drops in class for trainer Joe Sharp. This barn has had plenty of success in turf sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years, and she’s spotted realistically for her first start on this circuit. She was never really involved against a tougher field at Churchill Downs last time, but I don’t want to be too hard on her for that effort, as she had run better tree starts back at Fair Grounds. I’m not totally convinced, but she makes enough sense to include. Among those with early speed, #8 Get the Candy could be most dangerous. Stretching back out to 7 furlongs is a question for her, but she was facing a tougher field last time and goes out for the dangerous Michelle Nevin barn. My top pick is #12 My Sweet Wife. I could make some minor excuses for this mare when she was running for trainer Jorge Abreu late last year. She didn’t get the right trip on Oct. 22 going this distance, and then she was compromised by a lack of pace going shorter at Aqueduct. Since then she’s done a bit better racing in Florida, and now makes her second start off the claim for Peter Walder. I thought she ran well first off the claim in April when beaten by a quality rival in Passion Plus. This stable has had some success in New York recently, and I love this 5-year-old mare getting back to the 7-furlong distance. She won going this trip twice on the dirt earlier in her career, but she’s much more of a turf horse these days. I’ll use her with the two aforementioned runners, as well as first time turfer #4 Jacrodra’s Devil, who has plenty of pedigree for this surface

WIN: #12 My Sweet Wife, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 4,8,10

RACE 6: PROVEN HOPE (#4)

Morning line favorite #6 Southern Flag does own the best dirt form of anyone in this field, having earned solid speed figures in all three of his starts last season. He was also beaten by some pretty good horses in a few of those starts, particularly when turned away by subsequent stakes winner Miles D two back. He did achieve his best results going a little longer than this, so he has to prove he can handle a shorter trip off the layoff. Bill Mott is 8 for 56 (14%, $0.93 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. There are some intriguing first time starters in this field. #7 Impulsiveness probably has the best pedigree, being by Quality Road and a half-brother to solid allowance type Winter Pool. His second dam is the undefeated champion filly Flanders. However, that pedigree says he wants to go longer, and I got that impression watching his sales workout from last year. #8 Accretive has more of a sprint pedigree, being by good debut sire Practical Joke. He’s posted some nice workout times for Chad Brown, though winning first time out with dirt sprinters isn’t his best stat. My top pick is #4 Proven Hope, who has an experience and recency edge on the aforementioned contenders. I thought he ran deceptively well in his debut at Gulfstream in March, making a middle move into the race after getting shuffled back early. He ran on decently in his second start against a solid field and then sustained a wide trip on turf last time. I don’t mind him switching back to the main track and the addition of blinkers could make a big difference for a horse who has been a little green in his races.

WIN: #4 Proven Hope, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 7: RUNNINGWSCISSORS (#4)

Perhaps this race is as simple as #5 Deep Cover just getting to the front and wiring the field, as he was able to do against N1X foes last time out. A repeat of that performance will make him pretty tough for this field to handle, as that 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure is simply faster than the numbers anyone else in this field has earned. However, he was aided by a yielding turf course that he obviously relished. He also could get some pressure here from #3 Not Phar Now, who seemingly has to go forward from his inside post position. Christophe Clement has the two most obvious alternatives in #6 Panster and #7 Phantom Smoke. The former probably deserves another chance after getting pushed out through the stretch last time before his riding just wrapped up on him. He needs some pace to close into, but should be running on late. Phantom Smoke is coming off a layoff, but was in great form when last seen, just missing at this level to the improved Dancing Buck. They both make some sense, but I wanted to search for a bit more value. #4 Runningwscissors interests me off his turf debut last time. While he finished well back in fifth, he got a pretty adventurous trip that day. He didn’t break that sharply, which then caused him to get shuffled out to the back of the field. Typically a speed, he got a bit rank at the back of the pack and ran up outside of horses to travel 4-wide around the far turn. He never completely threw in the towel, running on evenly late. I think he showed that he can handle turf, which isn’t a big surprise since he’s bred for this surface. Now he’s getting a rider upgrade to Luis Saez for low-profile connections and figures to be a generous price.

WIN: #4 Runningwscissors, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 5,6,7

RACE 9: SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (#9)

There are a few fillies dropping out of maiden special weight company in this $40k NY-bred maiden claiming affair. #5 Our Jessica arguably has the strongest credentials after running a solid second in her turf debut at the special weight level back in April. She didn’t fare as well on turf in her last couple of starts, but one of those came over a rain-softened course and then last time she was basically eased in the last furlong when clearly beaten. She’s better than those last couple of results indicate and can rebound here on the drop in class. I’m just taking one shot against her with #9 Smokin’ Hot Kitty, who also drops out of maiden special weight races. I thought this filly was running on well at the end of her debut despite having to alter course a few times in the lane. Then last time she again didn’t get the most comfortable trip, but was staying on decently despite getting pushed down to the rail in the stretch. Stretching out to a mile isn’t supposed to be a problem since she’s a daughter of Kitten’s Joy. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is 7 for 18 (39%, $2.40 ROI) with maiden claiming to maiden special weight dropdowns in NY-bred turf races over the past 5 years.

WIN: #9 Smokin' Hot Kitty, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, June 25

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   8 - 10 - 5 - 3
Race 10:   8 - 14 - 11 - 2

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 2
WIN: #4 Masterof the Tunes, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 3
WIN: #1 Oakhurst, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 6
WIN: #3 Libretto, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #1 Chiromante, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7
WIN: #1 Sixty Three S, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 10
WIN: #8 Succulent, at 5-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, June 24

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 12 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 1: LOLA LOLA (#1)

The major question for the two favorites in this race is distance. #3 Mrs. Boomer ran fairly well in her lone start going 6 furlongs, and now stretches out to a mile. #6 Bavarian Creme earned a slightly better speed figure two back going 7 furlongs, but she’s another who has to prove that she can get the added distance here. I do prefer Mrs. Boomer, whose pedigree indicates that this distance should be in her wheelhouse. She also ran into a pretty talented rival on debut when defeated by the well meant Fingal’s Cave. I expect a good effort from her, but she does need to get a bit faster. I’m less enthusiastic about the others with dirt experience, and would rather consider some new faces. #2 Chasing Daylightmakes some sense for Jorge Abreu, who is always dangerous with debut runners. However, he’s only started 3 first time starters in dirt routes over the past 5 years, and all of those were off-the-turf races. This filly also has more of a turf pedigree, especially on the dam’s side. My top pick is #1 Lola Lola. She debuted going 6 furlongs on turf, but her pedigree doesn’t exactly suit those conditions. She’s by stamina influence Tiznow and her dam is a half-sister to G2 Go For Wand winner Nefertini. She ran like a horse who lacked that turf tun of foot last time, so I like the stretch-out on dirt. Furthermore, Mike Miceli is 9 for 39 (23%, $3.03 ROI) going from turf to dirt over the past 5 years.

WIN: #1 Lola Lola, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3: FORT TICONDEROGA (#4)

Likely favorite #3 Growth Capital has been bet down to favoritism in both starts to date, and he's likely to inherit that role again here. He seemingly had his debut race in the bag, but hung late as the winner re-rallied. He again settled for second last time at Keeneland, though he did have to cover more ground than the winner. This horse obviously has some ability, but looks ripe to get overbet once again as Chad Brown adds blinkers, seemingly in an effort to get this guy to pass horses. #1 Smoke and Heat is the other runner with recent turf form. He’s run well in both starts and took to turf without issue last time. He didn’t get as fortunate a trip as the top two finishers, going pushed very wide when launching his rally on the far turn. Yet he was still running on at the end, and gives the impression that a mile should be within his scope. I prefer a new face in #4 Fort Ticonderoga. This colt has been off for nearly a year since his unveiling as a 2-year-old. He was meant for grass in that off-the-turf affair, and actually put in an encouraging effort on dirt, lengthening his stride nicely through the lane while no match for winner Doctor Jeff. That one went on to win the Atlantic Beach on turf in the fall. Fort Ticonderoga is bred to move up on this surface, out of a Grade 3-placed turf dam who has produced Grade 2 turf winner Doswell as well as this guy's full-brother Secretary At War, also a turf stakes winner. Shug McGaughey is 12 for 52 (23%, $2.32 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years.

WIN: #4 Fort Ticonderoga, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 4: SUNSET LOUISE (#4)

#6 Sister Linda had gotten a sneaky trip in her debut last year and was subsequently put on the shelf. She apparently flourished during the time away, as she returned a different horse last time. She ran down heavy favorite Royal Currency, who got too aggressive early, before drawing off to win by a dozen. Obviously the waters get deeper here, but that 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number earned by anybody in this field. Don’t put too much stock in the trainer switch, as Michelle Nevin trained her into the last race, but transferred horses to De Paz while she served a brief suspension. She shows a quick workout here this week and looks dangerous right back. A few of these exit a race at this level on May 27. #2 Caragate might be the one you want from there as her form has been on an upward trajectory with the exception of an ambitious placing in the Gazelle. However, she got a pretty good trip last time and just didn’t have any late punch. #3 Know It All Audrey ran just as well in that spot after getting a wide trip and may be improving third off the layoff. Yet I wanted to go for a new face with #4 Sunset Louise. She looked like one that would appreciate more ground when she made her debut sprinting last November, and she indeed relished the step up in trip next time. She wasn't meeting a particularly tough field in January, which is partly why she got bet down to 5-2 favoritism. Yet she proved much the best, as she advanced through the field despite navigating traffic to win going away over today’s rival Know It All Audrey. That 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure obviously won’t get the job done here, but she's been off for a while and may be capable of better now. She’s a full-sister to Grade 3-placed The Reds, so there’s potential here.

WIN: #4 Sunset Louise, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8: AGENT CREED (#3)

A few horses in this field exit the May 28 race at this level, in which #5 Lord Flintshire lost by a nose after forging to a slim lead in midstretch. I thought he had every chance that day and showed his major flaw, a tendency to settle for minor awards. I prefer #7 Rally Squirrel from that affair despite finishing a couple lengths back in third. He did have to alter course in upper stretch, but really had an excellent trip without a major excuse. I just thought his tactical speed would play better in this spot. That said, this is a far more competitive field than that May 28 affair and I want to look at runners from other directions. I think #4 Front Line Dancer is somewhat interesting as he steps up against winners after breaking his maiden coming off a layoff last time. He was clearly best that day after going wide on the turns and launching a rally down the center of the course to get up. He managed to win despite racing a little greenly and failing to change leads in the stretch. I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of him and won’t be surprised when he takes another step forward here. My top pick is #3 Agent Creed. He returns from a layoff for new trainer Michelle Hemingway, who stretches him out to the 9-furlong distance. He didn’t get ideal trips in either of his last two starts of 2021, as he was ridden to make a premature move last time and encountered traffic in deep stretch of each of those starts. He’s run some of his best races at Belmont Park, and the way this inner turf course was playing last week would flatter his running style. I also like the rider switch to Luis Saez, who should fit this one-paced deep closer.

WIN: #3 Agent Creed, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Front Line Dancer, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9: CHARLEY RUDE (#7)

I’m not really against likely favorite #12 Gather the Facts as she makes her second career start. You could argue that she was one that should have won her debut for Chad Brown, but she didn’t take that much money and ran like a filly who probably needed the experience. She was in good position on the turn, but seemed a little slow to get in gear before hitting her best stride too late. That’s probably why Brown is adding blinkers for her second start. Any minor improvement on that debut effort will make her tough to beat. Another second time starter who merits consideration is #3 Mrs. Green. I’m not convinced that she was facing the toughest field in her debut, but she did run well while closing mildly though the lane after a slow start. Linda Rice’s runners tend to do better with a race under their belts, and she seems like one who should relish the slight stretch-out in distance. My top pick is #7 Charley Rude, who figures to be a square price in this wide-open affair. I don’t think she’s gotten ideal trips in either of her two starts. She was wide most of the way in her debut on synthetic at Gulfstream before staying on at one pace. Then last time she chased two-wide on turf at Aqueduct in a race that was dominated by rail runners. I think she’s going to appreciate this turnback in distance. Christophe Clement is 9 for 26 (35%, $2.23 ROI) going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont over the past 5 years. Furthermore, there’s some classy sprint breeding on the bottom side of her pedigree. Her dam Biofuel could go longer, but that dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinters Tu Endie Wei and Indian Pride.

WIN: #7 Charley Rude, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3,12

Picks & Plays for Thursday, June 23

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   2 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 9:   12 - 5 - 2 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 1: CRAWFORD COUNTY (#2)

Those with turf form do little for me in this New York-bred maiden claimer. I suppose #1 On Palm Sunday has to be considered among the most appealing options due to his general inexperience. His lone turf start was neither bad nor good for this level, as he just stayed on at one pace after stalking the pace. He does seem like one that could appreciate the stretch-out in distance. Yet he’s going to take money on the rider switch to Irad Ortiz and I’m not fully convinced of his ability. I prefer #4 Cagney of those with turf form, as he at least showed some improvement in his return to grass last time. He set an honest pace and battled on through the stretch while no match for the runaway winner. He also figures to be a square price in a race where the favorites don’t look particularly formidable. I'm instead going with first time turfer #2 Crawford County. There really isn’t much grass pedigree to speak of on the dam’s side. Yet he’s by multiple Grade 2 turf winner Takeover Target, who has had limited exposure as a sire. Few of his progeny have tried turf, but they are a combined 3 for 11 on that surface, and his two best runners showed significant improvement with the switch to grass. This gelding hasn’t shown much on dirt, but I think he could wake up getting on turf.

WIN: #2 Crawford County, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 3: REGINA (#2)

#7 Oh Mrs. Maisel figures to attract some support as she drops in for a tag for the first time after a series of maiden special weight attempts. This is an easier spot for her, but I’m just concerned that she hasn’t really done much running in any of her races. She’s never been a serious factor and her recent efforts are arguably worse than those she put forth as a 2-year-old. She makes some sense, but I thought others were more appealing. Among those making the drop in for a tag, I preferred #3 Cupids Girl. She’s at least been competitive on a couple of occasions, and she actually ran well closing to be fifth against a tougher field last time. She’s always at the mercy of pace with her closing style, and I’m not sure the stretch-out to 7 furlongs helps her. Yet she’s arguably the horse to beat. A few of these exit a May 13 race at this level. The only horse that I want out of that race is #1 Fleur Elyse. It’s unclear how good she is, but she looked like a filly who badly needed that return. She appeared a little heavy, and wasn’t ridden to full effect, just eased through the last furlong. She figures to move forward with that start under her belt and will be a price in here. Yet I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. #2 Regina returns from a layoff with some potential to improve. She’s obviously light on speed figures, but I think both of her prior efforts are stronger than they appear. She actually had some speed in her debut before abruptly dropping back at the half-mile pole in a race she probably needed. Then last time stretching out to a mile she was just beaten by a couple of superior horses. Winner Candy Light returned to finish second in a stakes with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, the second and fourth-place finishers from that affair won their next starts with improved speed figures. Regina is likely faster than her figures indicate, and is spotted appropriately for her return.

UPGRADE: #1 Fleur Elyse, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5: INSTINCTIVE (#5)

Morning-line favorite #4 Marvelous Maude can obviously win this race, but it just feels like she’s going to be an awfully short price in a race where she doesn’t necessarily have a significant edge over her primary rivals. I didn’t see a major excuse for her last time when she lost as the 4-5 favorite. It was her first start off a layoff, but Chad Brown does great in that situation. She has to do a bit better to beat this field, and I’m not interested in taking her at close to even-money. #8 Cara’s Dreamer is a difficult call as she attempts to rebound from a poor effort against the favorite last time. I thought she ran pretty well off the layoff at Aqueduct in April, but she had nothing to offer last time. She did get a little rank in the early part of that race, but that doesn’t seem like a viable excuse for her coming up totally empty in the stretch. I suppose it’s a good sign that she’s back just 5 weeks later, and I don’t want to count her out. Parx-based mare #5 Instinctivefinished ahead of Marvelous Maude when they met in that May 22 event, and I don’t think there was anything fluky about that result. Instinctive arguably had the tougher trip, going wide around the turns and making an earlier move in a race that fell apart. I won’t hold her subsequent speed figure regression against her when she ran at Parx next time, as she was an easy winner of that race against inferior competition. Her two best performances have come in her NYRA starts, as she also ran well last year at Aqueduct. This 5-time turf winner knows how to get the job done and she’s clearly in the best form of her career right now.

WIN: #5 Instinctive, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 4,8

RACE 8: BIG PACKAGE (#2)

I’m not sure he’ll go favored here, since he almost never does, but #8 Pulsate is the horse to beat in this optional claimer as he launches his 6-year-old campaign. While he’s never had a great affinity for visiting the winner’s circle, Pulsate ran well in all of his turf appearances last year, finishing in the exacta every time. He arguably put forth one of his best efforts in his return from a similar layoff last July when just felling to defeat the once-brilliant Fiya. He’s getting subtle class relief from his steady diet of stakes races at the end of last year, and projects to get a good stalking trip. I prefer him to the other short prices. #4 Whatmakessammyrun should attract support on the basis of his fifth-place finish in the Grade 1 Jaipur just 12 days ago. He ran pretty well in that spot, but he did get a good ground-saving trip before angling out in the stretch. He obviously handles the distance and is getting class relief, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of taking a short price on him. #1 Principled Stand could also take money for Chad Brown, but he’s got a lot to prove as he steps up in class and turns back to a sprint distance for the first time. I prefer #2 Big Package at slightly longer odds. He’s one of two runners in this field for David Donk, who has been enjoying a fantastic few months in New York. Over the past 60 days, Donk is 11 for 38 (29%, $5.84 ROI) with all starters. Big Package was thrown into a tough spot off the layoff last time when unable to make an impact in the Elusive Quality. However, Donk reported that he exited that race with a fever. Though he’s been off the board twice in a row, I can make an excuse for his final start of 2021 when he got a ridiculously wide trip in the Turf Sprint Championship. He’s now back at a level where he should be competitive. He’s handled 6 furlongs before, though I'm a little concerned about a lack of pace with Shekky Shebaz scratching.

WIN: #2 Big Package, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 8

Picks & Plays for Sunday, June 12

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 8:   9 - 4 - 2 - 6 (Dirt: 9 - 10 - 3 - 7)
Race 9:   5 - 11 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 6: BREAKING STONES (#6)

I have very little trust in the two likely favorites in this N2L conditioned claimer. #5 A Longlongtimeago is getting significant class relief after competing against much tougher NY-bred allowance foes in his recent starts. However, his performances have gotten progressively worse since a decent return back in February. That follows a similar pattern that we saw last year when he ran well in his debut and fell apart soon after that. He’s pretty tough to trust in his current form, though this weaker competition may wake him up. #2 Vikram is equally unreliable as he returns from a 10-month layoff. He was claimed by Wesley Ward and put on the shelf for the better part of a year, which is not a great sign. Ward is also not taking advantage of the claiming waiver, leaving in for a tag. He ran a competitive speed figure when last seen, but Ward is just 5 for 34 (15%, $0.97 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. I’ll try to beat this pair with #6 Breaking Stones. I won’t pretend to love this 1-for-14 gelding, but he has gradually been cycling back into better form in his recent starts. He contested an honest pace last time against favored rival Tough Tickets before fading in the last furlong. I don’t mind the turnback to 6 furlongs for him, since he ran well, nearly winning, in his lone prior start going this distance in March. Dylan Davis should be able to work out a stalking trip and he would be a square price at around 9-2.

WIN: #6 Breaking Stones, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7: FIRST TO ACT (#1)

The two most naturally talented horses in this field appear to be #6 Equal Pay and #7 Brattle House. However, it’s hard to see either one working out an ideal trip given their similar running styles. Both do their best work on the front end, and they could have some additional company up front from fellow speed #4 Sweet Surprise. Among all those speeds, I do prefer Equal Pay, who has run well in all three starts since the eventful start to career, when she tripped in midstretch on debut and then got eased second time out. She did get run down as the 1-5 favorite last time, but I actually like the stretch-out in distance for her. She’s bred to go farther, gallops strongly, but just lacks some turn of foot. Brattle House, on the other hand, had things go her way last time in a race where a few key rivals failed to show up. I need to see it again from her as she makes first start for Bill Mott. My top pick is #1 First to Act. She figures to sit a good trip sitting in behind the front-runners. She obviously has to improve and Shug McGaughey doesn’t have great statistics off maiden wins. However, I thought she ran deceptively well to break her maiden, as she was chasing 2 to 3-wide against a rail bias on April 15. I don’t think we’ve yet see the best from this daughter of Curlin and it’s not like she’s that far off the favorites from a speed figure standpoint as of now.

WIN: #1 First to Act, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 8: BELLA PRINCIPESSA (#9)

There’s obviously some possibility that these last two races could come off the turf given the forecast for rain throughout Sunday afternoon. However, this is a situation where my top pick would be the same on turf and dirt. #9 Bella Principessa figures to appreciate this turnback in distance regardless of surface. I thought she actually ran pretty well in her return to turf last time, as she was never inside and made an early move to take over before getting passed late in a race that was falling apart. Most of her turf performances have come over route distances, but she proved that she was an effective sprinter on dirt this winter, so she should find this 7-furlong distance on grass to be perfect for her. I like that Joel Rosario stays aboard in a race where there’s a live Clement runner signed on. And she would also be logical if this race were transferred to the main track, as she possesses plenty of dirt efforts that make her the horse to beat. On turf, I would also want to use #4 Love’s Misery, who exits the same race. She got a great trip when she won on turf two back, but she did earn a strong 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort. I don’t want to be too hard on her for her loss last time, as 1 1/16 miles is probably too far for her and she was contesting a pretty strong pace that came apart. The turnback should suit her and there isn’t that much speed signed on in this field. The wagering entity that I’m against is the Steve Klesaris runner, though #1A Miss Delicious won't be as short a price with #1 Winter Princess scratching. She has speed figures that point her out as a contender, but she hasn't effectively sprinted on turf. #2 Tis a Pity looks like the other favorite, and I’m not wildly against her. She did briefly get held up in traffic before launching her rally last time. However, that was a weaker field and now she’s again a short price in a much more competitive affair.

WIN: #9 Bella Principessa, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Love's Misery, at 5-1 or greater