TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 10

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   6 - 7 - 9 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: THE LAST ZIP (#6)

Class droppers dominate this $32k claimer. The field is led by #7 Duress, who drops to the lowest level he’s encountered since getting claimed by Tom Albertrani early in his career. His form tailed off noticeably last season, though he did show himself still capable of putting forth competitive efforts every now and then. His return from the layoff in May wasn’t terrible, though he didn’t really finish chasing home a trio of superior rivals. I don’t care too much about the off-the-turf affair last time, and this just seems like the right spot as he drops down. #1 Not Phar Now might be his main rival. He would easily beat this field if able to run back to his first start off the layoff when holding on for third going this distance against a tougher New York-bred field. His results since then have been poor, but he was involved in a suicidal pace last time that completely melted down. He’s likely to do better here as the controlling speed, but he’s hard to trust. The same can be said for #2 Reux, who hasn’t run a competitive race since his first start in this country. I’m going to try to beat the dropdowns with #6 The Last Zip. He’s obviously done most of his running over longer trips than this, but he was effective sprinting on turf in the first two starts of his career. His recent form looks pretty poor, but he’s now been freshened and returns for Joe Sharp. This barn doesn’t have the best numbers off the claim, but Sharp is a solid 11 for 69 (16%, $2.82 ROI) in turf sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years, and it feels like he’s brought some live runners to New York. I also like that he was previously entered for $25k in a race that was rained off the turf earlier in the meet, and is now entered back for $32k.

WIN: #6 The Last Zip, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 1,7

RACE 3: UNCLE WATER FLOW (#4)

I have trouble taking either #1 Patrick the Great or #8 Eminency at short prices in this bottom-level New York-bred maiden claimer. The former showed some promise when second in his career debut, but that off-the-turf affair has proven to be a very weak race. He’s since been uncompetitive in a couple of maiden special weights and now drops down. Eminency has had even more chances at the special weight level and has continually disappointed. His last dirt race was his worst yet, and the move to turf last time prior to this further drop is a little concerning. I want to look elsewhere, and there are viable alternatives in this race. #2 Barone Marchis is a little interesting off the claim for Orlando Noda, though he has to improve. #6 Devil Or Angel broke through the gate prior to the start last time and ran on well, though was aided by a fast pace. I’m going for a bigger price with #4 Uncle Water Flow. He’s made most of his starts on turf, but he’s a much better dirt horse. He got a strange ride and trip on Dec. 31, and subsequently showed up with a solid effort when dropped in for a tag in March. That performance gives him an outside chance here, and it’s notable that it was his only start on a fast track. He’s better than he looks and is finally getting a massive rider upgrade to Javier Castellano.

WIN: #4 Uncle Water Flow, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 4: SMART JOKER (#1)

I have no argument that #2 Media Sensation is a contender in this spot, but it is worth noting that he’s exclusively run against New York-breds and is now moving into open company. He earned solid speed figures without doing much running in maiden special weight company, but I thought his last race was a step in the right direction. He was wide throughout and still stayed on mildly for third. That said, he’s arguably facing a tougher field this time, so he needs to improve again. Among the short prices, I’m more interested in #3 Left On Boylston. This horse put in a good effort to be third at this level back in April behind Bail Out, who is better than anything he faces here. He probably needed his return going 11 furlongs last time when not really persevered with by the rider. He’s now back in a realistic spot and is going out for a barn in the midst of a strong meet. I just have an opinion about a bigger price in here. I want to give #1 Smart Jokera chance getting on turf. I know his pedigree isn’t screaming grass, but Practical Joke has had some mild success with his turf runners and the dam has produced a couple of runners who handled grass without winning. John Kimmel is 5-for-34 (15%, $4.69 ROI) with maidens switching over to turf for the first time over the past 5 years. Watching this horse’s races, he moves more like a turf horse and he figures to be forwardly placed from the inside in a race that features a very murky pace scenario.

WIN: #1 Smart Joker, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 6: KING’S HARLEQUIN (#6)

Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners who both figure to attract support in this optional claiming event. #2 Nevisian Sunrise stretches back out in distance after failing to handle sprinting in the Intercontinental last time. I like the distance for her, but I’m just not thrilled with her prior form. She beat a mediocre field at Keeneland two back, and figures to vie for favoritism given the fact that Irad Ortiz is riding. #7 Zainalarab is perhaps more appealing since she’s only had the one start on turf, in which she ran quite well to be second. However, now she’s stretching out to a mile and it’s no guarantee that added distance will suit her. I won’t be shocked when either wins, but I wanted to look elsewhere. I think #5 Miss Dracarys could bounce back at a square price. She ran well behind Love and Thunder two back, albeit with a very good trip. I didn’t like her last effort but she may prefer more ground than 7 furlongs these days, as she just seemed to have trouble keeping up with the pace on the turn. I’m going with a different horse out of the Love and Thunder race. #6 King’s Harlequin finished fifth that day, but it was her U.S. debut while returning a one-year layoff. Christophe Clement does not do well with foreign shippers first time in this country, but he does do better second off a layoff. Over the past 5 years, he is 12 for 48 (25%, $2.23 ROI) second off a 180+ day layoff in turf routes at NYRA. King’s Harlequin has solid French form to build upon from early in her career. She got a wide trip last time and should fare better here. I also don't think #3 Evvie Jets is impossible after just missing at this level last time. This is a tougher spot, but she's underrated and has the tactical speed to work out a nice trip.

WIN: #6 King's Harlequin, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 7: QUEEN BOURBON (#5)

Christophe Clement arguably has the two fillies to beat in #2 Eylara and #8 Classic Colors. I much prefer the latter of the two. Classic Colors delivered a career-best performance in her return last time, closing into a moderate pace to win pretty easily over a couple of next-out winners. This is a step up in class as she tries open company, but she appears to have matured since she tried this level as a 3-year-old. The bigger question is the stretch-out in distance, but she has enough stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree to handle it. She has plenty of upside, whereas Eylara has just been a little disappointing in her two U.S. starts to date. A couple of fillies are shipping in from Churchill Downs. #4 Stepper finished well to be second behind the talented Lady Rockstar in that May 7 race at this level. However, that was by far the best performance of this 3-year-old’s career, and I’m not convinced that the added distance is going to suit her. I’m far more interested in #5 Queen Bourbon. This filly made her turf debut a winning one after a trio of solid dirt efforts last year. It took her a while to get back to the races after that, and I think she’s run deceptively well since returning as an older horse. She was facing better rivals both two and three back, as April 15 winner Ocean Road returned to win the G1 Gamely out west, and Lady Rockstar came to New York with a dominant performance. I also thought she might have moved too soon in that May 7 affair. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the stretch-out for her, since she’s handled 1 1/4 miles on dirt. She picks up Irad Ortiz, who should have her forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature much early speed. The other horse I want to consider is #1 Hail To, the full-sister to Sadler's Joy. She's light on speed figures, but may appreciate this stretch-out in distance.

WIN: #5 Queen Bourbon, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,8

RACE 9: THE ICEMAN COMMETH (#6)

It’s hard to trust anyone in this wide-open maiden claiming affair, which closes out the Belmont meet. #2 North Carolinaonce had turf form that towered over this field, but his recent efforts leave a lot to be desired. #9 Calloway Peak has to be considered on the class drop. Even though he hasn’t done much running in his races, he’s exiting one of the best maiden special weight events of the meet and may have found the right field returning on short rest. A couple of runners exit that 10-furlong maiden special weight event on May 20. #8 Dream of a Day stayed on mildly late without really threatening, though he’s another who could appreciate the drop. I’d be more interested in #7 Greg’s Honor, who got a somewhat indecisive ride, making an early move on the backstretch before fading. He should fare better as John Velazquez takes over. My top pick is #6 The Iceman Commeth. I had thought this horse was an interesting prospect in his debut prior to that race getting rained off the turf. He clearly needed the experience, as he got squeezed back at the start and had no speed thereafter. Yet he did get rolling in the last quarter mile, passing tiring runners before galloping out with interest. Keen Ice has had a bit of success with turf routers, and the dam earned some of her best speed figures on turf despite never winning on the surface. Second dam Duty Dance was an excellent turf performer, so there is plenty of pedigree for him to handle the surface. Tom Morley runners tend to do better with experience, and this gelding isn’t meeting the toughest field.

WIN: #6 The Iceman Commmeth, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 7

Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 9

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 2:   2 - 8 - 9 - 3
Race 3:   1 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   10 - 8 - 9 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 10 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 9:   10 - 13 - 7 - 12
Race 10:   6 - 1 - 5 - 12
Race 11:   1 - 5 - 4 - 6

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 4
WIN: #2 Max Player, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5
WIN: #10 Soulmate, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 6
WIN: #2 Fight On Lucy, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7
WIN: #1 McKulick, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9
WIN: #10 Nations Pride, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 10
WIN: #6 Brady's Legacy, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, July 8

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   10 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 8:   1/1A - 9 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 11 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 2: BYE BYE (#3)

#7 Bay Storm is obviously the horse to beat as she returns to the site of her last victory, a triumph over this course and distance in the Christiecat last September. She led from gate-to-wire that day, and figures to use similar tactics here given the lack of speed signed on in this affair. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader, and she looks loose up front. Her two races since returning from a layoff this year have been decent, but I thought she was supposed to offer more of a finish last time as the 4-5 favorite. I’m taking a shot against her with #3 Bye Bye. This Christophe Clement trainee made her return from the layoff at this level last time and put in a good effort to just miss. That was a day when the rails were set at 9 feet on the inner turf course, and the inside path probably wasn’t the best place to be. I think she can move forward with that start under her belt, and she had a nice foundation of solid turf sprint form from her 3-year-old season that she can still build upon. I prefer her to the other obvious alternative #4 Alwayz Late, who could be somewhat compromised by the lack of pace in this affair. I’m actually more afraid of Clement’s other runner #8 Mischievous Dream, who was a visually impressive winner last time and has seemingly found her niche as a turf sprinter.

WIN: #3 Bye Bye, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 7,8

RACE 5: SIDEKICK (#4)

I have no major knocks against #6 Gasoline, who is overdue to break his maiden after posting strong speed figures in the first three starts of his career. He just ran into a better rival last time when run down by the promising Artorius. He has the tactical speed to work out a good trip and goes out for a barn that has really come alive in recent weeks. He’s the one to beat, but he figures to be a short price now that his form is totally exposed. I actually think #5 Winit has more upside from that June 10 affair, though it remains to be seen if he can turn the tables on Gasoline. Winit showed promise when overcoming a wide trip to be second at Gulfstream in his dirt debut over the winter, and took a further step forward in his return last time. I think this well-bred son of Tapit still has upside and he should be a square price. My top pick is #4 Sidekick. This son of Honor Code is a half-brother to Travers winner Code of Honor, so the pedigree is there for him to be a good one. He ran like a horse that would benefit from more ground in his career debut when rallying belatedly to get up for third. I liked the way he seemed to level off and run to daylight in the last furlong in a race that didn’t feature a particularly strong pace. Shug McGaughey is 8 for 30 (27%, $2.60 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #4 Sidekick, at 5-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Winit, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 7: WHITTINGTON PARK (#6)

Both Jorge Abreu runners in this N1X allowance drop out of the Mike Lee, which was won on the front end by Rotknee. I thought #5 Who Hoo Thats Me ran the better race despite finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind his stablemate. The winner set a torrid early pace and Who Hoo Thats Me was uncharacteristically close to the front end, ultimately paying the pace as he faded in the stretch. This time I would imagine that Prat will take him off the pace in a race that features plenty of speed types. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and he proved that he can run well from behind in his first start off the layoff. #4 Unique Unions is arguably most dangerous of the speeds, since he is versatile enough to stalk. However, I don’t think he gets better as the distances stretch out beyond 6 furlongs, so I worry a little about his stamina, especially in a race with so much pace signed on. I’m going in a different direction with #6 Whittington Park. This horse was green in his career debut last year, weaving in and out through the stretch en route a third-place finish behind the talented Rotknee. He was more professional with blinkers in his second start, sailing clear to an easy victory. Something obviously went awry in the Bertram F. Bongard, and he’s been off since then. I like his steady series of workouts for the return and Brad Cox has decent stats off layoffs of this type. He’s a half-brother to quick sprinter Steam Engine and stakes performer Critical Value, so there’s pedigree here for him to improve. This son of Midnight Lute just feels like one that could benefit from having time to grow into himself and the price figures to be fair.

WIN: #6 Whittington Park, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 8: ROMANOSA (#1) / ANGELINKA (#1A)

#9 Invincible Gal is supposed to beat this field as she returns from a layoff and makes her first start for the Chad Brown barn. Graham Motion did a good job with her, but she did develop a habit of settling for second, just never able to get back to the winner’s circle after winning her career debut. Most of those subsequent starts came against stakes company, so she figures to appreciate dropping back down into an allowance. I don’t fully trust her to seal the deal at a short price and she seems like the kind of runner on which the public could go overboard. Nevertheless I do prefer her to Brown’s other entrant #6 Nazuna, who didn’t have a major excuse when checking in second at this level last month. I instead prefer #1 Romanosa from that affair. She was making her first start in this country for Christphe Clement, which is not a strong move for the barn. She finished far back, but I thought she got the wrong trip, sitting on the rail in a race that was dominated by outside movers. It’s unclear how much she would have had to offer in the lane, but she was forced to alter course while rallying. I like her French form and think she can do better here. She’s part of an entry, which normally would be an issue for me. Yet I also like her entrymate #1A Angelinka. This filly faced lesser company in France and Germany, but achieved decent results, showing steady improving over the course of 2021. She did her best running on the lead in Europe, so it was curious to see her rated aggressively in her U.S. debut last time. Irad Ortiz stays aboard here, but at least she’s landing in a race that figures to feature a more honest pace, so she’ll have a better chance to settle if he rates her again. I just think she’s better than that stateside debut would indicate and the entry figures to be a fair price given the presence of two Chad Brown runners.

WIN: #1 Entry, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9: SLUGO (#2)

I’m not particularly fond of anyone with turf form in this finale. #10 Martinez is arguably the horse to beat, but he probably doesn’t have much improvement left and this barn has been a little cold lately. I actually prefer #9 Moon Hunter from his last race, since he seemed to appreciate the turnback, just hitting his best stride too late. #1 Luca At the Spa exits a different race at this level which came up much slower, but I thought he ran decently. The pace wasn’t particularly fast and he closed well after getting shuffled back in the early stages. Multiple horses from that affair have come back to improve their speed figures, so he strikes me as one with some upside. There are also some first time turfers to consider. The logical one is #11 N Y Anthem, a son of War Dancer who is a half-brother to a multiple turf winner. I don’t fully trust these connections to make the surface transfer, since trainer Tyler Servis has never won a turf race, but the horse makes sense. My top pick at a bigger price is #2 Slugo. This horse has obviously had some issues, as he’s a 5-year-old making just his third career start. He ran on decently in his debut after a poor start, and last time showed improved tactical speed before flattening out. He’s coming off another layoff here, but I like the surface switch for him. Big Brown is a deceptively good turf influence. The dam never tried turf, but she’s produced a couple of foals who handled it without winning. Michelle Nevin is the midst of a strong meet, and Luis Saez figures to get aggressive from the inside in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario.

WIN: #2 Slugo, at 8-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #1 Luca At the Spa, at 10-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Monday, July 4

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 10:   9 - 8 - 3 -

PLAYS

RACE 1: DREAM ON CARA (#1)

I don’t have a strong argument against #2 Ranting other than the fact she figures to be a short price as the obvious runner with experience dropping in class to face New York-breds for the first time. She was part of the scramble for third place on debut behind a pair of runners who drew off from the field. She lacked early speed and was finishing well, so it’s a little surprising to see her back in another 5-furlong race rather than stretching out, but perhaps this was just what came up next. #5 Snowy Evening could take some money based on connections, but this really isn’t a turf pedigree. She’s by Frosted, who hasn’t had much success as a sire overall, and is a half-sister to dirt performers My Boy Tate and Charlie McCoy. Among the debut runners, I’d much rather go for the pedigree on #1 Dream On Cara. Central Banker is a decent 9% turf sprint sire, and interestingly is produced from the same female family as dam Dreaming of Cara. (For the pedigree nerds, this filly is inbred 3x4 to Merion Miss, the dam of Arkansas Derby winner Private Emblem.) I was a huge fan of this filly’s dam. She handled turf and she’s produced a couple of turf winners, topped by stakes-placed fillies Cara’s Dreamer and English Breeze. Mitch Freidman isn’t known for debut success, but he did win with one firsters at 99-1 a couple of seasons ago.

WIN: #1 Dream On Cara, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: GREAT WORKOUT (#1)

Obviously, #3 Cousteau and #4 O’Trouble look pretty imposing as both come into this claiming affair with superior form and speed figures. Between the two, I do prefer Cousteau, who beat a tougher group of starter allowance foes last time in his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. It’s understandable that Atras is dropping him in class off that win since he really doesn’t have the form to be competitive at the N1X level. The barn has great statistics off wins, so I won’t be surprised when he makes it two in a row. I’ve just never found him to be the easiest horse to trust, and he’ll be a short price. O’Trouble has more questions to answer. While he did run reasonably well going this distance last time, multiple horses from that May 8 race have not returned to back up the speed figures they received. I prefer this horse going shorter than a mile and think he’s vulnerable as one of the favorites. I’m going in a different direction with #1 Great Workout. This guy isn’t the most genuine sort and sometimes doesn’t seem to have his mind on running. However, I do think longer is better for him, and all of his recent dirt races have come over sprint distances. He’s run comparable speed figures on turf, but I think he’s more of a dirt horse, so I like him getting back on this surface. It’s also interesting that Linda Rice claims him back for $35k after losing him for $25k following a couple of lackluster efforts earlier this winter. He’s long been a work in progress, and perhaps she’s figured out a way to keep him a little more engaged this time.

WIN: #1 Great Workout, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5: GAGLIANO (#6)

I understand that #5 Trinity Titoli can win this race with a repeat of her last effort, but I think she’s a dubious proposition at a very short price. She got a good trip stalking the pace last time and was able to hold on for second in that large field. However, things could be more difficult for her today with the stretch-out to 7 furlongs and the presence of #7 Love That Face to her outside. This Mike Miceli runner was also in that June 5 affair, but she was away very slowly, which prevented her from attending the pace. This time she figures to get a more aggressive ride from Dylan Davis and I won’t be surprised when both of these runners come up empty in the late stages. I want someone who can pick up the pieces and my best idea is #6 Gagliano. I know she’s a little hard to take given her 1 for 34 lifetime record. However, she did show some subtle improvement this past winter, picking up a series of checks at this level during the Aqueduct meet. I thought she was left with a little too much to do two back when she was finishing well going a mile. Shorter is probably better for her and I don’t care about the turf race last time. At something around her morning line odds, I’m willing to give her a shot.

WIN: #6 Gagliano, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7: BALLYDOOLEY (#2)

The short prices in this optional claimer are a little tough to swallow. That’s especially true for #3 Artemus Citylimits, who just seems to have developed an aversion to winning races. He’s finished in the money in every start since his last victory a year ago, but he just consistently fails to get the job done despite working out good trips. I don’t dispute that he possesses the best form in this field, but he’s just hard to support from a win perspective. I also have some reservations about #6 Maxwell Esquire, who looks like the clear second choice. He defeated Artemus Citylimits two back when getting a good setup from off the pace. However, he didn’t look like himself in his first start of the claim for Linda Rice last time, never hitting his best stride in a race that was won from off the pace by Voodoo Zip. He has to do better here, though he is getting some class relief. #4 Fauci is another coming out of some tough races, but I didn’t like his effort last time when he came off the bridle a long way from home. I don’t see a ton of speed in this race aside from Artemus Citylimits, and I won’t be surprised if his connections try to get him off the pace here based on the way he coughed up leads in his last two starts. That could make #2 Ballydooley dangerous on the front end. I know he comes in with form that doesn’t quite stack up against the rest, but Michelle Nevin is bringing him back off the layoff in an ambitious spot. He’s a horse who showed steady improvement last year and proved dangerous any time he was left alone on the front end. It certainly doesn’t hurt to get Joel Rosario aboard and Michelle Nevin has been in the midst of a very strong meet.

WIN: #2 Ballydooley, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8: HOP PICKER (#4)

A solid case can be made for 5 of the 6 runners in this field competitive maiden field and even outsider Dolce Sera ran a competitive race at this level three back. The horse to beat is probably #5 Precursory, who earned a solid speed figure when finishing third at this level last time. She’s already proven she handles the one-mile distance, which is a question for some others in here. She ranged up like she might win last time but just flattened out a bit in the late stages. Perhaps that’s why Bill Mott adds blinkers for this third start, and she shows a nice workout over the training track last week. Todd Pletcher has a pair of entrants, though I’m a little skeptical of both. #6 Quotabelle didn’t finish after showing speed last time, and could play out as the pacesetter on the stretch-out. #3 Don’t Overlook Me finished better than her stablemate last time and is bred to go longer. However, she’s been a disappointment in both starts and is overdue to show some ability. Of the runners stretching out, I’m more convinced by #1 Demandsrespect. She closed well after getting outrun in the slop last time, and is out of a high-quality dam that could handle a mile. My top pick is #4 Hop Picker, who actually cuts back slightly from 1 1/16 miles. She was disappointing as the 2-5 favorite that day in a race that looked very weak for the level. However, she had been off for 3 months since her promising debut and ran like a filly that might have needed the start. She traveled well early, showing improved tactical speed, but just got tired at the end. She’s since been put through a much more rigorous series of workouts than she had coming into the last race, so I’m expecting a step forward. She’s bred to be a good one, and I doubt we’ve yet seen the best from this McGaughey runner.

WIN: #4 Hop Picker, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 9: COINAGE (#4)

#2 Annapolis would have been the favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but was forced to miss that race with a minor issue. He made his belated return in the Penn Mile last time and ran better than the result would indicate. That turf course was a bog, and produced some chaotic results. This guy closed determinedly over that demanding course, and should have gotten plenty of fitness out of that performance. Pletcher understandably opts to go for this easier spot rather than trying the G1 Belmont Derby. If he still possesses the talent we saw from him last year, he’s going to be a handful. The wild card in this field is #5 Boston Tea Party, who steps up into stakes company right off his debut. He was a well-kept secret that day, going off at 11-1, but he delivered in a big way. He traveled strongly while racing 3-wide and took over impressively at the head of the lane. Tony Dutrow’s barn has really come alive during the past several weeks and he’s not shying away from throwing this guy into a tough spot right off that debut win. I’m more interested in the other recent maiden winner #7 Double Clutch, who is ambitiously spotted here after breaking his maiden at Keeneland. He got a great trip, but I liked the way he burst clear from that field late. Rusty Arnold is high on this horse, and he’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to Gear Jockey. A couple of runners exit the G2 American Turf at Churchill Downs. #6 Smokin’ T ran pretty well that day and came back to just miss in the Audubon. He's not impossible here, but I prefer the other one from the American Turf. #4 Coinage faded late in in that spot, but I don’t want to be too hard on him for that effort. He didn’t break that sharply and got very rank under Florent Geroux while making a premature move up to contest the pace while racing wide into the clubhouse turn. I like that he now gets Luis Saez back aboard, which is significant for a horse that can be difficult to ride at times. This one-turn mile should suit him well, and he figures to be a square price in the face of some runners with more apparent upside.

WIN: #4 Coinage, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Double Clutch, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 10: RENT CONTROL (#9)

#3 Hope for the Best and #4 Mo Damorninggrouch are the logical contenders in this finale. The former is a first time starter going out for a barn that does well with these types, and she is a half-sister to turf winner Timeless Journey. However, she’s going to be a short price by default in this maiden claiming field and others are a little more interesting. Mo Damorninggrouch ran reasonably well in both starts at this level to begin her career before she was simply outrun against a tougher rival last time. She’s dropping back down to the right level, but I didn’t see anything particularly clever about her. There are two interesting runners in this field. One of those is #8 Laughter, who drops down to the maiden claiming level for the first time. She didn’t do much running in her open company debut at Tampa. However, her last race is worth a viewing, as she was actually up close early before getting dragged back through the pack while getting rank under Eric Cancel. She had no finish after that, but now she’s turning back in distance and getting a rider switch to Javier Castellano. My top pick at a bigger price is #9 Rent Control. She ran off on the front end in her return from the layoff two back, setting unreasonable early fractions for the distance and understandably fading late. I think her connections may have overreacted to that result last time when she was rated too far off the pace and only hit her best stride too late. I’m hoping that Eric Cancel can find the happy medium here as she makes her third start off the layoff because I do think this filly has more ability than her results thus far would suggest.

WIN: #9 Rent Control, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 8

Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 3

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 1A - 5
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 8 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 1: CERTIFIED LOVERBOY (#1)

$275k yearling purchase #2 Lost Ark is out of a dirt route stakes-winning dam who has produced 4 winners from 5 foals to race, topped by G1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Idol and G1 Belmont Stakes runner-up Nest. Both of those accomplished siblings are sired by Curlin, and this colt is 19% juvenile debut sire Violence. Todd Pletcher is 9 for 24 (38%, $1.45 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in 5F to 5.5F on dirt at Belmont over the past 5 years. It’s a little curious to see a horse with this damside pedigree make his debut sprinting in July, but he’s by a sire of precocity. That fast June 26 gate work signals that there’s ability here, and he’s the one to beat. I’m taking a shot against him with #1 Certified Loverboy. A $230k yearling purchase, he’s by Grade 1 BC Juvenile Turf winner and G1 Travers runner-up Mendelssohn, who is 0 for 7 with his first time starters in his first crop. The dam went 0 for 2 and her only foal to race is stakes-placed Juror Number Four. The dam is a half-sister to a couple of dirt stakes winners in Japan, including G3 Saudi Derby 3rd-place finisher Consigliere. Ray Handal is 6 for 23 (26%, $2.95 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 2 years. He sports some pretty quick workouts for the debut, and reportedly outworked talented 4-year-old Disco Pharoah in that June 13 drill.

WIN: #1 Certified Loverboy, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 5: WINFROMWITHIN (#7)

This optional claimer is the race of the day, as you can make a case for many runners in this wide open event. Arguably the most intriguing member of this field is #8 Ocala Dream, who came through with a breakout performance second of the layoff last time when beating a strong field in the Kingston. He traveled well every step of the way and produced a nice turn of foot in the stretch to slam the door on that field. A repeat of that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him dangerous here, but repeating that career-best effort may be easier said than done. #1 Floriform is a logical alternative as he drops out of graded stakes company. I like the slight turnback to a mile for him, and he ran respectably against some tough company earlier this year. I think his form is a little more exposed than some others, which should be reflected in his price, though he does project to work out a great trip from the rail. I’m interested in a couple of other 4-year-olds with upside. #6 Hombre has always had ability and showed some hints of talent for trainer Barclay Tagg. Yet he seemed to really take a step forward first time out for the Cherie DeVaux barn. He ranged up powerfully at the quarter pole and dominated that affair through the stretch. He’s stepping up to meet a tougher field here, but he appears to be moving in the right direction and has a running style that should allow him to adapt to any pace scenario here. My top pick is #7 Winfromwithin. This horse had shown turf ability early on in his career for Todd Pletcher before a series of trainer changes seemed to briefly derail him. Yet he ran well on the dirt when switched into the Jorge Delgado barn even though that’s not his preferred surface. He got back on grass last time in the Cliff Hanger and clearly ran the best race. He contested a very strong early pace – 174 and 145 TimeformUS Early Pace Ratings for those first two fractions – in that race and battled back gamely in a race that was dominated by closers. Some may not trust these connections coming to New York, but this jockey has a pretty simple job. He just has to get him to front end in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring that running style.

WIN: #7 Winfromwithin, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 6

Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 2

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 7 - 5 - 1A
Race 2:   5 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 6:   4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 7 - 2 - 11
Race 10:   4 - 12 - 6 - 7

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 2
WIN: #5 Linny Kate, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5
WIN: #2 Breakwater, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6
WIN: #4 Writeitontheice, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8
WIN: #3 Fluid Situation, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9
WIN: #5 Silky Blue, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10
WIN: #4 Shawdyshawdyshawdy, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #6 Celestial City, at 7-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, July 1

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   3 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 10 - 1/1A - 2
Race 5:   6 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1A
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   8 - 11 - 12 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 2: LUCKY PERIDOT (#5)

If I could be confident that #7 Juxtapose would get back to her best races from last season, she would be an easy selection in this race. She was meeting some pretty good rivals at Woodbine last summer and fall, and she actually ran pretty well in a few of those spots on both turf and Tapeta. There’s been a trainer change since then, for the same owner, and she resurfaced at Belterra sprinting 5 furlongs last time. I didn’t love that effort, but she had a right to need a race and should appreciate more ground. It’s hard to completely trust her as she drops in for a tag now for William Morey, but she is the one to beat. I’m not thrilled with the other horse that could take money, #4 Blue Atras. She has run well fresh before, but I thought she was beating weaker company when she won here last October. She’s somewhat pace dependent and has run best against cheaper. I prefer #5 Lucky Peridot. This mare has plenty of back class, having run competitively against stakes company in California earlier in her career. She’s clearly not in that kind of form anymore, but I think she’s done well when realistically spotted. She was a visually impressive winner three back, and then had no chance against tougher in the Monroe, a race that didn’t feature much pace. I don’t want to get too caught up in her dirt race last time, but she got a poor ride that day, as she made a middle move to go from last to second at the half-mile before fading. This barn hasn’t sent too many runners to NYRA, but has done well out of town.

WIN: #5 Lucky Peridot, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 3: NORDIC LIGHT (#3)

I’m not way against #4 No Code, who figures to go favored here. He obviously appreciated the added ground last time, and he gets an extra sixteenth to work with here. However, he was never a serious threat to winner Endowed, and the ground he made up in the late stages was primarily a function of the winner being geared down over the last furlong. I’m hoping that he loses to a similar kind of runner here, as Christophe Clement sends out #3 Nordic Light, who will try to emulate stablemate Endowed. Both horses made their debuts routing on turf and Clement has outstanding numbers with this specific move. Over the past 5 years, he is 5 for 6 (83%, $4.45 ROI) going from turf maiden special weight to dirt maiden claiming. This horse doesn’t have much turf pedigree, and there’s plenty of dirt breeding on the dam’s side. He finished far back in his debut, but he was conservatively ridden that day. Blinkers go on as he switches to Dylan Davis, and I think we’re going to see a better effort.

WIN: #3 Nordic Light, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4: CATCH THAT PARTY (#5)

I acknowledge that both halves of this Jordan Wycoff entry can win, but I’m not thrilled with either of them. #1 Practice Squad has been in strong form since getting claimed by Joe Sharp, and he’s coming off an effort that makes him competitive here. However, he got a great trip setting a moderate pace that day in a race that was dominated by horses who stayed inside. It’s hard to see him getting as lucky this time, especially with the speedy Nicholas James in the field. #1A Ricochet also wants to be forwardly placed as he makes his first start off a trainer switch to Mike Maker. I didn’t think he had much of an excuse to lose at Monmouth last time, but he has other races that make him competitive. They’re both contenders, but entries like this are almost always underlays. I much prefer Mike Maker’s other runner #5 Catch That Party. This horse had shown ability when previously in Jeremiah Englehart’s barn last year, running competitively against New York-bred allowance company. Claimed by low-profile connections at Gulfstream, he subsequently made two starts against tougher company this winter and didn’t even run that badly when a huge price on Jan. 30. He dropped to a realistic level last time and surprised a field at 17-1, flying up the rail to win going away at the end. He was an astute claim that day by Mike Maker and Michael Dubb. That pair is 5 for 12 (42%, $2.26 ROI) first off the claim together on turf over the past 2 years. I like that he’s being moved up into a protected spot and Joel Rosario should fit this horse perfectly given the way he ran last time. The other horse that I would also want to throw into the mix is #10 Reckless Spirit. He was inside last time in that June 5 race that Practice Squad also exits. However, he got a very tentative ride and was in traffic for much of the way until getting free late.

WIN: #5 Catch That Party, at 7-5 or greater
USE: 10

RACE 6: TWILIGHT DREAMS (#6)

#4 Hoodooland, an expensive Medaglia d'Oro-sired half-sister to G1 La Troienne winner Salty, made her debut in a small field at Aqueduct back in April where she put in a solid effort to be second behind dominant winner Speaks for Itself. The ground she gained at the end is a little misleading, as the winner was geared down a long way out. The third-place finisher from that affair returned to win her next start, though didn’t earn much of a speed figure. Shug McGaughey is 6 for 38 (16%, $1.12 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, so these types are sometimes overbet. I’m a little surprised that McGaughey keeps her sprinting rather than stretching out, and she does face some intriguing first time starters. Chad Brown has a pair of runners in here who both could attract some attention. #3 Empire Hope is a half-sister to Grade 1 Humana Distaff winner Sassy Image, and #1 Emmylou is a half-sister to G1 Spinster winner Valiance. Neither one would be a surprise, but I’m more intrigued by some firsters drawn outside. #7 Tizzy in the Sky is a little interesting even though she lacks star power in her pedigree. Ray Handal has done well with firsters over the past two years, but she sports some quick workouts for her debut and Rosario climbs aboard. My top pick is #6 Twilight Dreams, who is one of two in here for trainer Bill Mott. This homebred daughter of 12% debut sire Curlin is out of a Grade 2-placed mare who has produced 4 winners from 6 foals to race. The best of those is this one’s full sibling Curalina (13-6-3-2, $1.5 million, 105 Beyer), a two-time Grade 1 winner routing on dirt. Bill Mott is 9 for 36 (25%, $3.16 ROI) with 3YO+ female first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She’s done all of her prep work up in Saratoga, logging a few fast workout times. That bullet 5-furlong drill on May 20 matches this barn’s G1-placed 4YO colt Nova Rags, and the recent drill on June 21 matches G2 Gazelle winner Nostalgic. This one might be a runner and could be ready to fire even though she's bred to go farther than this.

WIN: #6 Twilight Dreams, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,7

RACE 8: KINENOS (#3)

Likely favorite #4 Kuramata has lost twice at this level at odds of even-money and 3-5, the latter time when part of an entry. This Irish-bred 5-year-old obviously has some talent, but he’s had trouble putting races together and still looks like a work in progress. He has a tendency to lug in and race greenly during his races, so he’s not the easiest horse to ride. He’s faced some pretty good rivals so far this year, and is arguably getting class relief against today’s field. Yet he has to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles for the first time and will almost surely be a short price for connections that always take money. I’m going with logical alternative #3 Kinenos. That last start had the feel of a prep. Running for his available allowance condition, he was closing mildly late in a race that featured a pretty honest pace up front. He just couldn't quite reel in the leaders, who had snuck away on the front end. That 8.5-furlong distance is on the short side for a horse that wants to go much farther, so he’ll appreciate the stretch-out to 1 1/4 mile here. He has finished in the exacta twice at this distance before, including a victory at today’s level over this track in April of 2021. I’m not too bothered that he’s risked for the $62,500 tag, as this is just a realistic placement. He needs some pace up front but should be charging late if Javier Castellano can work out a trip. I also want to use #5 Offlee Naughty, who should be a bigger price. This 4-year-old put in some nice efforts in California last year, winning a N1X allowance event over 1 3/8 miles to close out his season. Obviously distance is no issue for this guy, and he ran a competitive race at this level back in February at Santa Anita. He didn’t run well at Churchill last time, but I don’t want to put too much stock in that race given the way the course has played and the shorter distance. Trainer Michael McCarthy is 0 for 8 at NYRA over the past 5 years, though 4 of those did hit the board, all in graded stakes.

WIN: #3 Kinenos, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Offlee Naughty, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9: CHARGER (#8)

The favorites in here don’t do a whole lot for me. I especially don’t want #6 Fast N Fearious if he takes money again. He got bet down to 8-5 against a tougher starter allowance field last time and readily gave up after setting the pace. He had handled turf in his prior start when facing a field similar to this one, but it just feels like the connections got the best out of him that day. #12 Boom Boom Kaboom has run well in each of his last two turf starts, and arguably should have won both of them, as he was buried in traffic until deep stretch last time. He’s never been the most reliable win candidate, but it does seem like he’s turned a corner for George Weaver. I’m more interested in a couple of alternatives. #11 Standup has simply faced tougher company in each of his starts since getting claimed by James Ferraro. He didn’t even run that badly either time, and he figures to appreciate the slight turnback to 6 furlongs. He makes plenty of sense and arguably should be favored, though I doubt he will. My top pick is #8 Charger. He’s primarily raced on dirt, but this horse has a couple of prior turf races that aren’t so bad. Among those is a narrow loss to Never Explain at Indiana last year, and that one returned from that race to just miss against much tougher at Saratoga. His only turf start since then came going 1 3/16 miles, which is just too far. He’s since run his best races going sprint distances, and it feels like Linda Rice claimed him with the intention of switching over to turf. He certainly has the pedigree to be a grass horse, by Point of Entry from a Phipps female family.

WIN: #8 Charger, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 11