TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 9

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 8 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 7 - 9
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   10 - 8 - 5 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 3: OK HONEY (#2)
Cartwheel and Daria’s Angel, who are both coming off wins, figure to attract some support in this $25k claimer. The former Hennig trainee is returning from a bit of a layoff after beating a New York-bred field at this level on Dec. 13. She’s meeting a group of comparable quality here as she makes her return, and she’s been dangerous in the past whenever Hennig has dropped her in for a tag. That said, she had everything her own way up front last time, and it is a little concerning that she missed the entire winter. Hennig’s stats coming off layoffs of this type also leave something to be desired. I nevertheless prefer her to Daria’s Angel, who defeated a very weak field when she won for a $20k tag last time. The Orlando Noda barn has been having more success recently, but I think this mare would have to improve on her last effort to win again. I’m trying to beat this pair with Ok Honey. This mare was quite unlucky through the winter at Aqueduct, catching a series of track biases that hindered her chances in races from December through February. She finally had some better fortune two back, and delivered a solid win in a conditioned claimer for this price tag. Her connections then got a little too aggressive running her back just 9 days later and she regressed, in a race where she was also hampered by a wide trip. Now she’s back in a realistic spot after getting a month off. She also receives a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado, and is capable of producing an effort good enough to win at her best.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6

RACE 5: LADY FATIMA (#5)
I suppose Saburai is the horse to beat as she makes her NYRA debut for Vladimir Cerin. She’s a good fit at this class level and it’s a good sign that she appeared to return to form following a long layoff during the 2020 season. However, watching her recent races in California, I wasn’t thrilled with any of her performances. She got an absolutely perfect trip last time as the 5-2 second choice, and just failed to kick for home in the stretch. This barn has had one winner on the circuit, but this mare is almost sure to get overbet with Irad Ortiz named to ride. Among the alternatives are Micromillion and Mopolka, who finished first and second in a conditioned claimer at this track last October. The former runner is probably better on this surface than dirt, and she put in some decent turf efforts for Todd Pletcher. She wasn’t quite as successful on this surface for Mertkan Kantarmaci, but she does have an excuse for her last outing when her rider’s saddle slipped early in the race. I prefer her to Mopolka, who got great setups when she ran well in a couple of races at the N2L level last fall. My top pick is Lady Fatima, who ships in from Tampa Bay Downs. She ran well over this course last year when finishing second in a $50k claimer in October. Since then she didn’t run well in a couple of synthetic starts, and then was transferred to the stable of Mark Casse’s former New York assistant James Begg. Both starts at Tampa this winter for the new barn came against optional claiming foes, and she didn’t run badly on either occasion. The winner of her race two back returned to just miss in a stakes with a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her next start. And last time Lady Fatima was a bit too keen in the early stages, which seemed to blunt her late rally. This is a good spot for her to return to this circuit and she should be a square price with Hector Diaz named to ride.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,7 with 1,3,4,7

RACE 8: BEREN (#1)
I understand why Candy Man Rocket and Roderick might be considered the two horses to beat given their overall résumés. However, I haven’t been that impressed by either one of these colts. Candy Man Rocket does make a certain amount of sense as he turns back in distance, as he may just have not appreciated his connections’ aspirations to make him into a Kentucky Derby candidate. Even though he won the Sam F. Davis around two turns, he was getting pretty leg weary at the end of that race, so I like the turnback for him. I just wonder how much ability he really possesses. He didn’t beat the strongest field when he broke his maiden, though he was visually impressive that day. He’s certainly a player, but I just wouldn’t want to accept a short price. I’m less confident in the chances of Roderick. This horse just doesn’t seem all that genuine. He clearly possesses a good amount of early speed, but he often falls apart when he faces real competition or gets any serious pressure at all from his riders. Both wins were earned against overmatched groups when he was much the best, but his surrounding form is somewhat disappointing. Wesley Ward can be dangerous with the runners he ships in from Kentucky, but I’d rather land elsewhere. My top pick is Beren. This horse came into the Bay Shore last time as an intriguing new face from Parx, but he lost all chance at the start when he stumbled and fell to face. I’m not going to hold that result against him, and his prior form is strong. He really improved when he turned three earlier this year, winning a pair of races over the winter that have proven to be just as legitimate as the speed figures indicate. This colt is the product of a mating of two hearty racehorses, both millionaires, and I think he’s just starting to live up to the potential in that pedigree. With a clean break, I expect him to be forwardly placed form his inside draw, and I suspect he has a bit more heart than the two favorites.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6 with 2,3,4,6

RACE 9: CAUMSETT (#10)
Likely favorite Shamalamadingdong makes plenty of sense as she switches to turf for her second start. She was meant for this surface in her debut, which was rained off the turf. She didn’t break that sharply over that sloppy track, but she launched a nice rally through the stretch to get up for second. Upstart hasn’t been much of a turf sire yet, but the dam and most of this filly’s siblings were best on turf. I expect her to move forward in her second start, but I don’t want to settle for a short price on a horse who will take money based on a dirt race. Most of the alternatives to this filly haven’t raced on turf since their 2-year-old seasons, yet a few have a right to improve. The one who interests me most is Caumsett, who returns to turf after one disappointing dirt start back in January. In her turf attempts as a two-year-old, she got caught up in one fast pace after another. She contested the pace going a demanding 7 furlongs in her debut in a race that fell apart. Then she ran deceptively well second time out when chasing the pace going today’s distance. She even put in a solid effort going two turns in December, though that may be a bit far for her. I like her starting back at 6 furlongs, and I think she has a right to step forward as a daughter of The Factor, whose progeny typically improve over time. I would also give a look to turf returnees like No Payne and Kreesa La Wrote. The former actually finished ahead of Caumsett in that Aqueduct race last December, albeit with a better trip. And Kreesa La Wrote may just be getting back on the right surface after running deceptively well in her last turf start in November.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,5,6,8,11

Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 8

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 9 - 10
Race 3:   11 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 10 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 10:   1 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 11:   1 - 9 - 2 - 3

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 2: FRACTORZATION (#6)

RACE 6: LEMISTA (#2)

RACE 7: HONOR WAY (#5)

RACE 8: INFINITE POTENTIAL (#7)

RACE 9: WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST (#4)

RACE 11: MISS BONNIE T (#1)

Picks & Plays for Friday, May 7

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   1A - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   1 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   9 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   10 - 11 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 1: KREESIE (#5)
Giacosa returns from a layoff as she makes her 4-year-old debut. She showed no ill effects from a graded stakes attempt last fall when she rebounded with a solid second place finish in her only start at this N2X state-bred level. While those two efforts arguably make her the horse to beat here, it is worth noting that she got a perfect trip en route to that runner-up result last time, riding a rail bias for most of her journey. H. James Bond is a mediocre 6-for-39 (15%, $1.39 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days on turf over the past 5 years. She does have upside, but requires some pace to close into, so I wouldn’t want to take too short a price on her. Timeless Journey ended her 2020 campaign on a positive note with a surprising victory on dirt. She was somewhat curiously entered to race on that surface after a series of turf starts, and put forth the best performance of her career to beat odds-on choice Wasp, who is also in this race. Perhaps Timeless Journey’s last-out success is a signal that she’s put it all together. Or is she actually better on the main track? She now switches back to turf for her 4-year-old debut, and there are excuses to be made for her last two starts on this surface, as she caught a boggy course on Nov. 1 and then was against a slow pace on Nov. 22. I’m using her but I prefer a different alternative. Kreesie is the most accomplished turf horse in this field with four wins and $325k earned on that surface in her career. The question is whether or not she’s lost a step after failing to hit the board in 6 starts last season. In fairness to her, most of her races last year came against much tougher company. She appeared to get the class relief she needed in her 2020 finale on Nov. 6, but finished last of 8 behind two of today’s rivals. Yet it's important to note that she was 3- to 4-wide on both turns on a day that featured a significant rail bias. Now makes her first start off the claim for Rob Atras and picks up Irad Ortiz.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with 2,3,6

RACE 5: LITTLE MS SCARLET (#3)
Among those with experience, Cazilda Fortytales clearly has the best résumé, but she’s achieved all of her notable results on the dirt. She has a bit of turf pedigree, but not necessarily breeding that suggests she’s supposed to improve on this surface. She’s by 12% turf sprint sire Forty Tales and there is some grass pedigree in the second generation, but her dam is by negative influence Bernardini. I prefer others, and two of the logical alternatives are first time starters. The problem is that neither of them sport particularly convincing turf pedigrees either. Porper Grammar is by Laoban, who still has some things to prove as a grass sire, but there isn’t much turf pedigree on the female side. Decreed does have one sibling that handled turf, but Jimmy Creed is a mediocre 8% turf sprint sire. I would use both of them defensively, but I want to get a little more creative with my top pick. Little Ms Scarlet didn’t show much in her debut at Aqueduct, but I think she’s a candidate to move up on this surface. She’s by decent turf sire Girolamo from a very young immediate female family that hasn’t produced much. However, her second dam is out of the good NY-bred turf produced Plinking, so there is some evidence deep on the dam’s side. Furthermore, in her debut she displayed a high-striding action that can sometimes be indicative of turf inclination. She was also green in that spot, so the addition of blinkers should help her run a more professional race.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,7

RACE 7: ROSE E HOLIDAY (#9)
I suppose Ocean Air is the horse to beat as she faces winners for the first time. I wasn’t thrilled with her maiden victory last time when she just barely got up to win over a mediocre bunch in a race that fell apart late. She had run some faster speed figures against more advanced maiden special weight company in her prior starts, but she was never really a threat in those races. She makes a certain amount of sense as she finds a cozy starter allowance spot, but she’s going to get overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. I do find her more compelling than the other filly with Gulfstream turf form, My Lips Are Sealed. This New York-bred beat a dreadful field when she broke her maiden at Aqueduct last year and she’s since lost twice at this level. Her last performance was particularly disappointing, as she had a clear lead through slow fractions and still gave it up late. I want to look to some new faces, and one of those is first time turfer Rose E Holiday. She made a couple of starts over the winter when turf racing wasn’t available, winning the second of those going a mile. However, she could prove to be a shrewd claim by James Ryerson out of that last start, who clearly took her with the intent to run on turf. Exaggerator hasn’t shown himself to be much of a turf sire yet, but this filly is a half-sister to Fair Point, a stakes-winning turf sprinter. She seemed to have a turfy way of moving in her most recent start as she kicked away from hanger Wicked Happy, so I’m optimistic that she’ll take to this surface.

Win: 9
Exacta Box: 7,9

RACE 9: ESOTICA (#10)
Quantitativbreezin is clearly the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff and drops back down in class to face $40k maiden claimers. She displayed a nice late kick in her career debut last year, closing willingly from off the pace to get up for second. The winner of that heat went on to do some nice things later in the year, but there wasn’t much of quality behind her. She was understandably no match for tougher maiden special weight rivals at Saratoga before she was forced to miss the rest of the turf season. Now she makes her 4-year-old debut in a realistic spot, but she’s going to be a very short price and there are some questions hanging over her head. The great thing about this race is that there are plenty of appealing alternatives at better prices. There are two in particular that interest me. One of those is Quiet Type, who is probably getting back on the right surface but may be going the wrong distance. I’ve always wanted to see this filly get back on grass after she hit her best stride too late in her turf debut last November. She improved a bit over the winter racing on dirt, but I think she’ll appreciate this switch to grass as a daughter of sneaky turf influence Commissioner. The problem is that she probably wants more ground than 6 furlongs. My top pick is first time turfer Esotica. I made a note when this filly ran her debut that she might take to turf eventually based on the way she was striding through the stretch, with that bouncy action often seen from turf horses. Laoban has yet to establish himself as a turf sire, but her dam did run her best speed figures on grass and there is some turf pedigree going back generations in her female family. Furthermore, Mike Maker is 5 for 15 (33%, $4.02 ROI) with 3YO+ maidens switching to turf for the first time in sprints over the past 5 years. I don’t love that she could take some Irad Ortiz money, but I do think she’ll still be a square price due to the imposing presence of the favorite.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,9,11
Trifecta: 10 with 3,11 with 3,4,6,9,11

Picks & Plays for Thursday, May 6

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 6:   10 - 9 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 11 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 3: BINGO JOHN (#1)
My chief opinion in this race is that I want to take a stand against Tiergan. This horse has displayed improved form through the first portion of his 5-year-old season, especially since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. However, his form is completely exposed at this point and there are signs that he may be heading in the wrong direction again. After a perfect trip victory against starter allowance foes on Feb. 21, he’s twice lost as the favorite at this level. He was simply second best to Wild Banker two back, but really had no excuse to lose to Three Jokers last time when he simply hung. Now he’s being asked to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, and it’s hardly clear he wants to go that far. I actually prefer Too Early from his last start, since at least he’s proven at the distance. Yet my primary idea in this race is to endorse the 3-year-olds. One of those is Great Workout, but I wouldn’t want much lower than his 3-1 morning line price. This colt does need to get significantly faster to beat this field, but there are signs that he’s exiting a decent race. He also has a right to move forward off that performance given that he won despite breaking slowly and racing greenly. He’s bred to stretch-out and Todd Pletcher is 10 for 25 (40%, $1.86 ROI) with 3YO last-out debut winners stretching out from sprints to dirt routes over 5 years – but that ROI reveals the problem with picking this colt. My top pick is Bingo John. This colt was heavily supported at the windows when he broke his maiden going a mile in February, and appeared to beat a solid field even though the speed figure was merely mediocre. He faced tougher rivals when stepped up against winners last time and ran well, closing relentlessly through the lane to just miss. This colt is a half-brother to a few accomplished routers, including Grade 2 winner S’maverlous. He gives the impression that added distance should help him, and he has every right to improve for a dangerous barn. I would also use Our Man Mike, who seemed to improve with added distance last time, though he got a great setup to win that race.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,5,6

RACE 5: MOONLIGHT NOW (#1)
This race could scratch down to 5 runners, as Deputy Flag has already been withdrawn and Brazillionaire seems unlikely to participate for Linda Rice after racing last Sunday. That would leave Advance Notice as the horse to beat, and I’m loath to accept a short price on this horse. He’s generally been a disappointment since his surprising debut win at Saratoga last summer. He usually runs well but often fails to get the job done even after receiving perfect trips. And on top of that you have to find an excuse for his last race, in which he was eased as the 8-5 choice over a sloppy track. He’s obviously a contender, but he’s almost guaranteed to be overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. I want alternatives, and there are a couple of viable options. One of those is Millean, whose only poor effort on the dirt came in the G3 Sam F. Davis. While he was beaten as the favorite against $25k claimers last time, he was arguably best in that spot after getting shuffled back on the far turn. He was finishing strongly and seems like a horse that may benefit from the addition of blinkers. He’s somewhat appealing, but my top pick is Moonlight Now. This gelding drops in for a tag for the first time while making his second start off a layoff. His return was somewhat lackluster, but he was meeting a better field at least showed good early speed before fading. Charlton Baker is a solid 10 for 43 (23%, $2.07 ROI) second off a layoff of 180+ days at NYRA over the past 5 years. This horse ran well enough to be a factor here when he broke his maiden going this distance in Feb. 2020, and he would be a threat if he could get back to anything close to that performance. He also figures to be in front of Advance Notice early, and that one hasn’t shown much propensity for passing rivals.

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,7

RACE 6: PROVEN INNOCENT (#10)
I suppose Royale could attract some support as he makes his 4-year-old debut for Christophe Clement, since he does own some of the best turf speed figures in this field. However, I wasn’t thrilled with either of this runner’s performances last year. He debuted for a claiming tag and ran on evenly for third. Yet he didn’t improve much in his subsequent start at this level last December, merely staying on at one pace while no match for the top two. He is bred to stretch out on the dam’s side, so perhaps more distance will help, but I wouldn’t want a short price on him. Connagh’s Quay also figures to take money as this Juddmonte homebred tries to become one of just a handlful of winners in Flintshire’s first crop. He definitely gives the impression that he wants to run all day and Chad Brown is a specialist in these races. However, he’s unlikely to offer much value with Irad Ortiz named to ride. Snow’s Island is one alternative option, as he has a right to improve in his second career start for Tom Bush, who rarely has horses cranked up to win their debuts. He wasn’t facing the strongest field at Keeneland first time out, but he stayed on evenly for fourth, passing a few rivals in the lane. I won’t be surprised when this son of Grade 2 winner Tuttipaesi takes another step forward. My top pick is Proven Innovicent, primarily due to the fact that he could be the best price of those I’m considering. He’s never hit the board in three starts on turf, but he’s usually hitting his best stride at the end of those races. I thought he showed subtle improvement last time as he made a determined run from far back to pass over half the field in the stretch. Jose Ortiz also let him gallop out freely past the wire until he was in front, suggesting that he felt there was more in the tank. That was a maiden claimer, but the connections are just being realistic with a horse who they’ve now gelded. He’s unlikely to live up to the bar set by his siblings, but most of them did want to run all day, so I’m not worried about the added ground.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,6,9

RACE 9: DAY’S HUMOR (#5)
The short prices in this finale do little for me. I suppose Zerenia is the horse to beat off her maiden score just two weeks ago. She certainly ran a speed figure that suggests she’s good enough to make it two in a row. However, she doesn’t possess much early speed so she could struggle to work out a trip in this 11-horse field. I’m not against her, primarily due to the fact that main rival Towering Gaze is even less appealing. This filly didn’t do much running against a weak field at the $30k level last time and now she’s going to be overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. I want to get a little more creative so I put first time turfer Day’s Humor on top. This filly would obviously need to improve on this surface to get the job done, but I think there’s some evidence she may do so. Carpe Diem is a sneaky turf influence, connecting with over 12% of his turf starters. The dam never tried turf herself, but has produced a few foals who showed a preference for grass. John Kimmel doesn’t have a high percentage with first time turfers, but he has won with a few prices over the last several years, generating a positive ROI. Watching this filly’s past dirt races, she has a smooth, balanced gait that should translate well to grass. Furthermore, it’s not going to hurt to show some tactical speed in a field primarily composed of uninspiring closers.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,9,11

Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 2

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 3 - 1/1A - 2
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 6 - 10
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 11 - 7
Race 6:   7 - 10 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   4 - 8 - 3 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 3: KING JAMES (#1)
If Mr Annoying competes in this race, he would be a major contender, but he seems likely to scratch from this spot as he’s still entered to run on Saturday at Churchill Downs as of this writing. With him out of the race, King of Miami could inherit favoritism. This gelding was highly touted prior to his debut at Belmont last year, and was still bet strongly when that race was rained off the turf. He disappointed that day, and was subsequently stretched out for his next start, which came on turf. He made a brief bid in the stretch before fading late. Unsurprisingly, he now returns in a sprint on grass, which is where Ward wanted to start him all along. He’s bred to excel at this, since he’s out of a half-sister to Ward’s turf sprinting star Bound for Nowhere. He also gets a total makeover for this race as he returns as a new gelding with blinkers and Lasix. I won’t be surprised if he run well, but I wanted to go in a different direction. King James makes his turf debut and looks meant for this surface. He’s a son of 15% turf sire Nyquist makes his first start on this surface following a decent effort in his debut. He showed brief speed before fading in the stretch behind gate-to-wire winner Latin Casino. Yet this surface switch should agree with the colt. His dam (22-8-3-1, $439k, 94 Beyer) was an accomplished turf sprinter, winning multiple stakes. She’s produced one turf winner from two to try it, and this colt seems like one who should handle it. Jimmy Jerkens is 4 for 20 (20%, $6.46 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time. The other horse to consider is Deregulation, who is out of a powerful European female family. His workouts look decent, but Chad Brown does a little better with firsters in turf routes than sprints.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,9

RACE 4: SOGLIO (#5)
Soglio just seems like a logical option in this $25k claimer as he drops back down to the level at which he was claimed back in Feb. 2020. He’s done nice work for the new connections since returning from a layoff late last year, collecting a win before just missing against starter allowance company. He comes off a disappointing loss at 5-2 last time, but he didn’t get the right setup that day, as they crawled along on the front end. He also was extremely rank through the opening stages of that race, fighting his rider, who ultimately seemed to give up even when the real running began. I don’t mind him turning back to a conventional route distance since he’s won going shorter in the past. I’m also unbothered by the fact that they’re dropping back in for a tag since the connections have already made back some of the original claim price. His main rival is Mandate, who is supposedly getting some class relief after beating starter allowance foes last time. However, that may have been an easier field than the one he meets here, primarily due to the presence of Soglio. He’s a contender, but I prefer that rival if they are indeed similar prices. The interesting alternative to me is Attentive. This 5-year-old comes in off a series of disappointing efforts, but I think he’s going to appreciate getting back on turf. Mike Maker is always dangerous off the claim on turf, and this horse is probably better on the grass. He finished off the board in both prior turf starts in New York, but he ran deceptively well each time. The rider upgrade to Joel Rosario also inspires confidence.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,10
Trifecta: 5 with 2,6 with 2,4,6,10

RACE 6: FUTURE VICTORY (#7)
I made him the co-second choice on the morning line, but the horse to beat in this starter allowance might be last-out maiden winner Blue Lou Boyle. He’s been in excellent form since returning from a layoff for Mark Casse earlier this year. He showed promise as a younger horse facing maiden special weight company, but he responded well to the recent drop in class to maiden claimers in his last two starts. He was narrowly beaten by the talented Eagerly two back, and last time he dug in gamely to fend off stretch challenges in breaking his maiden. The 102 and 101 TimeformUS Speed Figures that he earned for those efforts put him right on par with the main contenders in this race, but he will have to deal with other speed drawn to his inside. Todd Pletcher has entered a pair of runners in here, the more accomplished of which is Gimme Some Mo. This colt was visually impressive breaking his maiden on turf back in January at the $50k maiden claiming level. Yet he’s been a little disappointing since then, losing at a short price against winners at Gulfstream before fading on the main track last time at Aqueduct. He’s clearly capable of beating this field on his best day, but he’s not the easiest horse to trust at a short price. I prefer Pletcher’s other runner Future Victory. He was no match for uncoupled stablemate Mandate at this level last time at Aqueduct, but I thought he showed some potential in that race. He was dominant when he broke his maiden two back at Gulfstream, making a wide run from far back to win while closing into a slow pace. And last time he was always a little too far back, but was running on willingly in the late stages before galloping out best of all past the wire. He figures to get a more favorable pace setup this time, and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz is clearly a positive.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,6,10
Trifecta: 7 with 6,10 with 1,4,6,10

RACE 8: WATER WHITE (#2)
I don’t have any major knocks against the favorites in this Ruffian, other than the fact that they’re going to be short prices in a race that I think is fairly competitive. Our Super Freak is arguably the horse to beat as she turns back to a one-turn mile after placing in a couple stakes at Oaklawn. She’s obviously going to attract plenty of attention this time due to her runner-up finish to Monomoy Girl last time, and that might be evidence that she’s rounding back into top form after some disappointing efforts at the end of last year. She’s clearly capable of winning this race on her best day, but she’s not the most reliable horse at a short price. Lake Avenue looks like a serious rival based on her two performance as a 4-year-old. However, she is stepping up in class to face the toughest field she’s met during this current campaign. That Heavenly Prize got a lot easier when her main rival Thankful – who was dead on the board – failed to show up with a competitive performance. She may ultimately turn out to be the most talented horse in this race, but she’s going to be a short price based on her perceived potential. I’m going in a different direction with an up-and-comer. Water White showed promise as a 3-year-old, winning the Busher before finishing third to the freakish Gamine in the G1 Acorn. She made her return last time at Aqueduct in a softer optional claimer and won with ease. That race only earned a 72 Beyer on a day when it was very difficult to make figures. However, one horse has come back out of that race to run significantly (over 40 points) faster, and I believe that was a much stronger race than that number indicates. TimeformUS Speed Figuremaker Craig Milkowski gave Water White a 114 for that victory, believing the track changed for the race. That number puts her in the mix here, and I thinks he’s going to outrun her odds on the class hike for her confident trainer Rudy Rodriguez.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,6

Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 1

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   4 - 9 - 11 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 10 - 12 - 11
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   10 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 8:   10 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 8 - 10
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 11:   6 - 12 - 9 - 4

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card. Churchill Downs Betting Strategies from David and Marcus Hersh are also available on Saturday.

RACE 4: DUTCHMEN FOREVER (#3)

RACE 5: TRIBHUVAN (#3)

RACE 7: SWASHBUCKLE (#10)

RACE 8: STRAFE (#10)

RACE 9: MONTAUK TRAFFIC (#1)

RACE 10: ORGLANDES (#3)

RACE 11: ELEGANT LAOBAN (#6)

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 30

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 2:   10 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   1 - 10 - 5 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 11 - 1 - 8
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   9 - 5 - 3 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 3: ZOOMER (#6)
This Flat Out features the 7-year-old debut of the longwinded Rocketry. This likable marathoner finally got back to the winner’s circle following a long drought in the G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance going 13 furlongs last year at Keeneland. He made his typical run from well back to get up over a decent field for a dirt marathon. However, that was the end of his campaign, and he is a horse who sometimes needs a start coming off a layoff. I’m using him here since he’s is proven in these races, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price. Musical Heart and Air Attack also figure to attract support after filling out the exacta in the Stud Muffin starter stakes at Aqueduct. They handled this 11-furlong distance that day but now they’re stepping up to face tougher company. Air Attack was coming back just 15 days after a breakout performance for Rob Atras, and I wonder if he’ll still be as sharp a month later. Musical Heart is still with Atras and has done well for this barn despite not winning since his most recent claim. This distance is probably pushing him to his limit but he’s a contender nonetheless. I’m interested in new face Zoomer. This horse had been campaigned as a sprinter for much of his career before they took a shot stretching him out last winter at Aqueduct. Since then he’s run some of the best races of his career, which perhaps shouldn’t come as a shock. He’s bred to run all day, being by Curlin out of an A. P. Indy dam that has produced other route-oriented runners. He put forth a huge effort to win going a mile in the slop last time for Rob Atras despite the fact that he hadn’t shown an affinity for wet tracks in the past. Now he’s back with former trainer Bob Klesaris and he’s stretching out to the longest distance of his career. There are questions to be sure, but he’s in great form and these longer races may be where he’s meant to excel.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7

RACE 5: OUT FIRST (#7)
Kept Waiting is a logical fit in this race as she returns from California and moves back into New York-bred company. She put in a decent effort in her lone start out west, staying on at one pace to get third in a starter allowance affair. That was going a two-turn mile, which is probably a little farther than her best distance. She seemed to appreciate one-turn races last year, so turning back to 7 furlongs seems like a smart move. She’s apparently training well for her return and figures to be tough with her good effort. She will have to defeat Big Time Lady, who improved quite a bit at the end of her 2-year-old season. Her maiden victory was merely ordinary, but she took a big step forward in the Tepin stakes after that, hanging on for third after setting the pace. While the winner of that race, Lovestruck, seems like a nice filly, I’m not sure there was a ton of quality behind the top two in that late November stakes. She makes sense as she returns from the layoff and arguably has more upside than Kept Waiting. I’m using both, but I’m most interested in a first time turfer. Out First makes her grass debut for trainer James Ryerson after competing on dirt throughout the winter at Aqueduct. Notably, her best performance to date has come over a sloppy, sealed track, so this move to turf could suit her. Outwork has had some initial success as a turf sire, and her dam was best on turf despite not winning. Going deeper into her female family, her second dam was a decent turf performer, so there’s definitely pedigree for her to take to this surface.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,8,11

RACE 6: A BIT O’IRISH SASS (#5)
Possible favorite Irresistible Girl followed up a fourth-place finish in her debut with a third, then a 2nd, so she’s seemingly ripe to get that maiden diploma this time. While her speed figures look relatively consistent, her performances have evolved more than the numbers indicate. She was never really a threat in her debut, and actually improved in that Feb. 14 affair, as she chased wide against a rail bias before getting overtaken late. She was perhaps a little disappointing to lose as the favorite last time, but was flattered when winner Summer Brew returned to beat N1X foes last week. I’m using her prominently, but I’m more interested in another player at a bigger price. A Bit O’Irish Sass returns from a layoff as she makes her 3-year-old debut for Rick Schosberg. She was off to a mildly tardy start in her debut last September but made good progress thereafter, closing best of all through the lane to be fourth despite staying on her wrong lead. She figured to step forward second time out, and she did improve her result. She got more involved in the early going, but couldn’t produce that same finishing kick in the slop. Her speed figure for that race was a mediocre 79, but that may have been a stronger race than it appears, as all of the horses who have run back improved their figures next time out. One of those was winner Vacay, who ran 9 points faster winning a stakes in her next start. This filly should be right there with routine improvement. The other horse that I would consider prominently is first time starter Cali Fitz. This daughter of California Chrome is out of a Grade 3-placed dam and is a half-sister to a sprint winner. The works look solid enough, and Jorge Abreu is an exceptional 11 for 27 (41%, $4.34 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 3,6 with 1,3,6,7,8

RACE 7: CREED (#2)
Highest Honors is an imposing presence in this allowance affair as he makes his 5-year-old debut after missing the entire 2020 racing season. He looked like he could be any kind as a 3-year-old after collecting his second straight victory in the 2019 Curlin, beating a pair of talented rivals in Endorsed and Looking At Bikinis. He was bet down to 13-1 in a wide open edition of the Travers and didn’t fare badly at all, splitting the field in sixth with a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, that was the last time we saw him, and now he returns from a 20-month layoff. Chad Brown is 8 for 23 (35%, $2.29 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more on dirt over the past 5 years. You can’t dismiss anything from this barn right now, but I also wouldn’t want to take a very short price on this type of horse. Another runner with some class returning from a layoff is Liveyourbeastlife. This colt has been an overachiever right from the start. He won his debut for a tag, and has been ambitiously placed ever since. It originally looked like his connections were mismanaging him, but he eventually rewarded their faith, finishing a game second behind subsequent Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide in the Jim Dandy. I won’t hold the Preakness against him, and now he returns in an appropriate spot for a barn that has been on a tear through early 2021. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is another layoff runner, Creed. This well-bred son of Honor Code looked on his way to the major summer stakes targets last year before his campaign was derailed by injury. Following months of rest, he finally made his return last month at Gulfstream, curiously going 6 furlongs. Unsurprisingly, he was outrun early and only hit his best stride when the race was ending before galloping out well in front. It all had the feel of a tune-up for a horse who clearly wants to go longer. Now he’s back at the right distance for the notoriously patient Shug McGaughey. He needs to produce the best effort of his career to win here, but that’s hardly out of the question for a runner with such apparent upside.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,8
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,3,6

RACE 9: SWEET MELANIA (#9)
I’ll be interested to see how the public bets this race, because I wouldn’t want to accept too short a price on my pick, though I do believe she’s the horse to beat. Sweet Melania is the type of runner I would typically look to avoid, especially as a favorite. She’s done her best work going two turns on turf and now she’s attempting to translate that route success into a turf sprint. The move doesn’t work that often, but I actually think she’s a perfect candidate for a turnback. She possesses plenty of tactical speed and she has a habit of getting leg weary in the last furlong of her route races beyond a mile. She handled one turn when she impressively won the Wonder Again last summer, and she has a pedigree that suggests shorter distances should suit her. She’s by 15% turf sprint sire American Pharoah out of a dam who was a precocious sprinter early in her career. She’s also been successful coming from off the pace, so I’m not worried about her getting a little outrun in the early stages. She’s my top pick, but I respect the other fillies likely to attract support here. Lady Lawyer obviously needs to rebound from a poor effort last time, but I think sprinting is a more natural fit for her. She’s training well for her return and this barn has been sending out nothing but live runners on the turf in New York. I also think She’s My Type is dangerous off the layoff for Christophe Clement. She displayed a nice turn of foot in that Coronation Cup victory last year, and I won’t hold her poor effort at Kentucky Downs against her. I respect both of these alternatives, but I just think Sweet Melania has a bit more upside as she shortens up in distance.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 9 with 3,5 with 1,3,5,7,8,10