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Featured Race:
Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 12 40 PM (Oct 31)
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by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 8 - 12 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 8 - 10
Race 10: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Patronage (#8) could go favored in this one-mile maiden event after closing for second in his return at this level last month. He had shown some promise in his career debut sprinting as a 2-year-old, but spent a long time on the sidelines thereafter. He finally got back to the races following that 13-month layoff, and closed well after getting away to another slow start. However, his lack of gate speed is a concern as he now attempts to cut back in distance. The inner turf course has not been terribly kind to deep closers since the rails were moved out to 35 feet earlier this week, and he’s unlikely to get as favorable a pace setup as he received last time. Among the other logical horses exiting that race, I thought Daybright Delights (#2) ran pretty well, since he was contesting that fast pace and hung in until mid-stretch before fading. That 1 1/16 miles distance was pushing his stamina to the limit, and he should appreciate this slight cutback as he draws well inside. I also thought New York Scrappy (#6) ran a little better than it looks, as he was wide on the turns and still staying on decently at the end. However, he’s generally been a disappointment, and I didn’t think he had much of an excuse to lose two back. The horse to take from that Aug. 30 race at Saratoga might be Charles J (#7), who got stuck in traffic when attempting to rally in the last furlong. He had gotten a good trip until that point, but he arguably might have won that race with a clear path through the lane. A mile is the right distance for him, but he will need a pace setup. A wild card that interests me is Magic Beach (#5), who returns from a long layoff for Linda Rice. He didn’t earn much of a speed figure on debut last year, but he was just a 2-year-old back then. Rice has done pretty well with these types, going 30 for 162 (19%, $1.80 ROI) off layoffs of at least 180 days over 5 years. He is bred to stretch out, being out of a dam who is a half-sister to marathoner and successful sire Temple City. It seems like a good sign that he’s not dropping in for a tag in his return. My top pick is another horse from that Sep. 26 race that a few of these exit. Vitalize (#3) might get overlooked off his seventh-place finish in that spot, beaten by a few rivals he meets again. However, he did not get a very good trip that day. He broke a step slowly and then got very keen behind horses past the wire the first time. He pulled Jose Gomez up into a forward position, but had to go wide in doing so. From there he proceeded to press a fast pace that fell apart while never on the rail, and understandably faded late. He figures to have gained some needed fitness from that start, and I like him cutting back slightly to one mile here. David Donk is 10 for 49 (20%, $3.81 ROI) second off a 180 to 360 day layoff over 5 years, so he typically gets these types to move forward.
Fair Value:
#3 VITALIZE, at 6-1 or greater
#5 MAGIC BEACH, at 12-1 or greater
RACE 6
The two likely favorites in this Iroquois faced off in the Union Avenue over the summer at Saratoga where Tricky Temper (#2) proved best. She didn’t seem to mind a quick tunaround that day, making her third start in the span of just 28 days. However, I think we saw that busy schedule takes its toll on her in the Prioress, where she was just a little dull while stepping up to face a better field. She did get minorly steadied on the backstretch, but she still didn’t have much to offer in the lane. Now she’s had plenty of time to recover from that Saratoga workload, and I won’t be surprised when she rebounds. She beat main rival Leeloo (#3) in that Union Avenue, and perhaps the 5-year-old mare has lost a step this year. Yet I thought she was ridden a bit too conservatively in the Dancin Renee in June, and a repeat of that effort makes her tough against this group. She obviously regressed a bit in that common race two back, and she was very disappointing last time at Churchill. I don’t think she liked being glued to the rail over that sloppy track, but now she has to rebound at another short price. My top pick is Cara’s Time (#7), who steps back up into stakes company after facing open allowance foes in her last few starts. I didn’t like the ride she got two back when allowed to drop back off the pace while chasing wide. That’s just not a successful style for her. Then last time, while she was never keeping up with Golden Degree, she was again ridden very passively. I imagine that’s a reason for the rider switch back to Dylan Davis, who had gotten more early speed out of her in the past. She’s drawn well outside in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace, and she earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure in her effort three back that could beat both favorites.
Fair Value:
#7 CARA'S TIME, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Looms Boldly (#3), who has been in great form for Brad Cox recently. He had struggled with consistency over the past year, but the lightbulb seemed to go on in that narrow allowance loss two back, and he followed that up with a victory in New York-bred stakes company last time. He did get away with a pretty favorable pace setup that day, but finished with more power than we had seen from him in the past. The Brad Cox barn has been on quite a run over the past couple of months, and he will look to continue that success. Yet I do think there is a little more speed signed on here to keep him company up front. Rudy Rodriguez has entered two bigger-priced runners who both do their best running when they’re forwardly placed. There’s also Rotknee (#5), who was supposed to keep the favorite honest up front in the Morrissey, but was never able to get to the lead after stumbling at the start. Rotknee is the wild card in this field, since he’s the defending champion in this race and is clearly good enough to beat this field on his best day. It just feels like he’s tailed off a bit as a 5-year-old, as gave issues have plagued him in his last couple of starts. Yet if he does bounce back here, he’s going to have a say in the outcome. I think there are some late runners to consider. Light Man (#1) shouldn’t be rallying from that far off the pace, and seems to be gradually improving in his current form cycle. He has to make up a few lengths on Looms Boldly, but I thought he ran pretty well chasing home Breeders’ Cup Sprint contender Federal Judge last time. My top pick is Sheriff Bianco (#2). It’s obviously been a long time since this 6-year-old has won a race, going winless in his last 16 starts. However, he’s run well in most of those losses, often catching horses that are just a little better than him. He’s also had his fair share of excuses recently, such as when he blew the start of the Commentator, and then got stuck in traffic going this distance on June 29. He was compromised by the slow pace and unfavorable race flow when beaten by these in the Morrissey, but he’s since shown subtle improvement in two subsequent starts. He fits in this spot, may finally get a better pace setup, and should be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#2 SHERIFF BIANCO, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 8
Moonage Daydream (#1) has won each of the last two stakes in this division, but she’s gotten great trips in doing so. She sprung a surprise in the Yaddo when the bettors discounted her prior form going shorter, but she showed the added distance was no issue. She even won going as far as 9 furlongs last time in the John Hettinger, but she was greatly aided by a slow early pace, which she was allowed to control. She’s definitely improved this year for Jorge Abreu, but I think she’s going to have a tougher time maintaining her advantage now that there’s more of a target on her back. Whatlovelookslike (#3) was arguably best in the Hettinger, making up ground into that slow pace to just miss. She did have her chance to get by in the stretch, but still finished well even while hanging a bit in the last sixteenth. She’s rounding back into top form since getting a late start to her season, and should be ready for a peak effort here. The most naturally talented horse in this field is probably Silver Skillet (#6), who was beaten as the favorite in both the Yaddo and Hettinger. She did have some minor trouble at the start of the Yaddo which prevented her from getting to the lead, but I was absolutely perplexed by the ride she got in the Hettinger last time. She broke better, and Rosario still seemed intent on dragging her to the back of the pack. She ran two of the best races of her career setting the pace earlier this summer, so that intentional change in running style makes little sense. If they revert that more aggressive style here, I think she has a great chance to beat this field, and is playable at the right price. My top pick is the lone 3-year-old, Caldwell Luvs Gold (#5). It seemed strange that the connections were going back to turf in the Jockey Club Oaks given how lackluster her turf debut sprinting had been when she was no match for today’s rival Moonage Daydream. Yet she was much more effective at the longer distance of her last race. She had every reason to fade late after chasing run-off leader Macanga, who set some ridiculously fast fractions, but she battled on all the way to the wire even as the race fell apart. She fits here based on her prior dirt form, and apparently is capable of transferring those races to turf now. She goes out for dangerous connections, and this is the right distance.
Fair Value:
#5 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD, at 4-1 or greater
#6 SILVER SKILLET, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 9
Spirit of St Louis (#1) figures to be a heavy favorite as he moves back into New York-bred company. He really didn’t run that badly when taking a shot against Grade 1 company in the Keeneland Turf Mile, finishing just over 2 lengths behind Breeders’ Cup Mile contender Carl Spackler. He chased 3-wide throughout and kept battling on to the finish against superior foes. However, he was beaten at an extremely short price in the West Point two back, the last time he was racing at this level. That was the worst performance he’s put forth in any of his recent starts, and a rebound to any of his surrounding form will make him very tough to beat. He drew well inside and will obviously be a handful. Hush of a Storm (#8) figures to attract support as the main alternative to the favorite off his victory in the Ashley T. Cole last time. He did launch a visually impressive late run to get up in the shadow of the wire, clearly improving in his second start off the claim for the Brad Cox barn. However, he did save plenty of ground before making that late rally. I actually prefer Dakota Gold (#6) out of that same race. He was only beaten a half-length at the wire, and I thought he had the tougher trip. He was off a bit slowly and found himself far back in the early going. Dylan Davis then asked him to move up on the backstretch and he got caught 3-wide around the far turn as he attempted to make an early move into contention. He had every right to flatten out from there, but he battled on gamely for second. He’s best when he can get held up and launch one final stretch rally, and he should get an opportunity to do that here with more speed signed on. He is the horse who upset the favorite in the West Point, and I think he can pull off the same feat again.
Fair Value:
#6 DAKOTA GOLD, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 1 - 10
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 11: 3 - 2 - 9 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I don’t have major knocks against the form of horses like Summer Whirl (#3) and Roagna (#7). They’re both proven going this distance and have run well in recent starts while keeping the strongest company. This did not come up as a particularly strong race for the level, which bolsters their chances. The one major problem with both of them is their lack of early speed, a problem that could be compounded by the way the inner turf has been playing this week. Since the rails were moved to the 35-foot setting, speed has been especially dangerous on the inner course, and both of these logical contenders figure to be rallying from well off the pace. The speed is likely to be Saratoga Gaze (#4), but last time was probably the time to have her when she beat a weaker field at the Meadowlands. I want to go in a different direction with Aunt Yola (#1) stretching out in distance. She’s only sprinted in her 3 turf starts, but it’s actually her prior dirt form that gives me confidence she can go longer. She ran well to just miss in a pair of 7-furlong dirt races in the second and third starts of her career, and it usually takes about as much stamina to go that distance on dirt as it does to get a mile on turf. She obviously took to turf, causing that major upset in her grass debut, and she’s just been outrun in two starts since then. I think she can get better forward position here from the rail for Horacio De Paz, who has good stats with stretch-outs.
Fair Value:
#1 AUNT YOLA, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 4
There’s plenty of guesswork to be done in this state-bred maiden field, which features plenty of first time starters. The best horse with prior form is probably Kenny Be (#1), who showed excellent speed from his inside post on debut before settling for second behind the talented Man in Finance. A repeat of that 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests that the first time starters have to possess some talent to beat this horse, and he does have a right to improve for David Duggan, who does much better with second time starters. Among the firsters, Wholesale (#4) figures to take money for Chad Brown as a son of excellent debut sire Vekoma. He appears to be working pretty well, but these types can get overbet for the Brown barn. John Kimmel’s Volatile Situation (#3) also has a pedigree to be precocious and shows some quick works for the debut. I would rather go for a first time starter at a bigger price who could fly under the radar. New Matthew (#9)might be that horse as he makes his debut for David Donk. The barn isn’t known for debut success, but he can have one ready on occasion. This horse has a nice pedigree, by versatile sire Flatter out of a dam who is a half-sister to graded stakes-placed My Name Is Michael. I got one glimpse of this horse working earlier this summer at Saratoga and he seemed like a very athletic type with great reach to this stride. He was actually entered debut during the Saratoga meet, but was scratched and missed some time. He’s gotten back on a consistent pattern since then, and should be a square price in this field.
Fair Value:
#9 NEW MATTHEW, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7
Top Gunner (#2) could go favored here after appearing to improve in his first start off the claim for Brad Cox at Parx. He wasn’t beating the strongest field that day and he got a very good trip, but he still finished with much better energy than we had seen out of him in his prior starts. A repeat of that effort makes him a major player in this field, but he figures to be a short price coming off that stylish victory. He’s going to pull in plenty of support going out for such popular connections, and he still has to prove that he’s ready to sustain this improved form against a tougher field. Main rival Scotland (#7) comes off a decent performance when finishing second behind the Breeders’ Cup bound Mufasa in the Vosburgh. That race was contested over a sloppy track and Scotland is probably a little better over fast going. He looked like a horse that was on the precipice of being a player in the sprint division with that impressive allowance victory going 7 furlongs two back. The major question for him is the turnback in distance, since he’s generally been most effective going a bit longer than this race’s 6 furlongs. Surveillance (#4) should be a square price in this spot, and he has races in his past that would make him competitive with this group. His recent form isn’t quite as strong, but he did show some hints of his old self in that turf victory at Saratoga in July. That effort did come for Flying P Stable at a time when they were winning races in bunches at the Spa, but I thought he ran similarly well off the claim for Wayne Potts in the off the turf Troy. He didn’t break well that day and still won under light urging. Then last time he was back on turf racing down inside over a course favoring outside paths. He needs to improve slightly, but he’s better than he looks. My top pick is My Buddy B (#5). He won a stakes at Parx two back that was of similar quality to the race won by Top Gunner, but this grey 5-year-old is going to be a much bigger price than that Cox trainee. He also got a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure, tied for the highest recent number earned by anyone in this group. My Buddy B was facing much tougher graded stakes company in his two races that surrounding that Parx victory. It seemed like the connections made a plan to rate him in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, which didn’t produce his best result. He also had little chance against horses like Nakatomi and Skelly, or even Federal Judge, who he chased home in the Phoenix last time. Now he’s landing in a race that features a very murky pace scenario. The Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners, and he figures to get a much more aggressive ride in this spot.
Fair Value:
#5 MY BUDDY B, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
I thought this Forty Niner was the most wide open stakes on this card. Coastal Mission (#7) is probably the horse to beat off his victory in the Parx Dirt Mile last time. His consistency makes him a reliable option in this field, but he’s not exactly a standout on speed figures, and I thought he got a great setup in that last victory as the only true closer in a fast-paced affair. Repo Rocks (#1) arguably ran the better race in the Parx Dirt Mile after contesting those quick fractions, but I didn’t like the way he seemed to idle in upper stretch. He’s just never gotten back to the brilliant races he ran on this circuit last year. Messier (#2) is a wild card returning from the layoff for Rick Dutrow, and he appears to be training very well. I just think his form from earlier in the year isn’t as strong as it looks, since he benefited from a strong speed bias in the Excelsior and beat Post Time when that rival got an overconfident ride in the Westchester. Among the horses exiting the Parx Dirt Mile, the one that I want the most is Film Star (#8). Unlike Coastal Mission, he’s not a natural late runner, so I don’t think he was really served by being ridden so conservatively last time. He was actually traveling well into the stretch but ran into some traffic late before flattening out. He has races in his past that would make him pretty tough for this group, and he should get a comfortable trip perched outside from this widest post with a long run to the turn. My top pick is Stage Raider (#3), who obviously needs to improve on his recent form. He has shown the talent to win a race like this in past seasons, including when he was first transferred into the barn of Cherie DeVaux. While it looks like that form has completely left him, I do think he’s run better than it appears in a few of his recent efforts. He actually might have been competitive in last year’s Clark if not spotting the field about 20 lengths at the start. This year, he was hardly disgraced chasing wide in the Salvator Mile, not finishing that far behind Coastal Mission. I didn’t like his trip in the Monmouth Cup, and then last time he was used up dueling with his stablemate for the lead in a race won by a closer. He figures to get the right tracking trip this time, and he’s training well into this realistic spot.
Fair Value:
#3 STAGE RAIDER, at 9-1 or greater
#8 FILM STAR, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 9
I’m not exactly sure who will go favored in this wide open optional claimer. Tidal Forces (#6) arguably has run the best recent turf race when finishing second at a huge price on July 13 at Saratoga. However, he wasn’t as effective two back, albeit when getting put in tight quarters through the stretch, and then was going too short last time. I like him stretching back out in distance, but I’m not totally confident that he can get back to his best form. Ocean Atlantique (#4) might be a slightly better option at a bigger price as he, too, looks to rebound from a subpar effort at the wrong distance. He just wanted no part of going a demanding 1 5/16 miles at Kentucky Downs, as he actually ran well into the lane before hitting a wall in the last quarter. He had run well there just 6 days earlier while running into some late traffic, and performed well at this level over this course in June. He drops slightly in class and appears to fit well in this field. My top pick is Magical Ways (#3), who gets back on turf after getting rained off the grass in his last couple of starts. He does run pretty well on the dirt, having started out his career on that surface with success. However, he has developed into more of a turf horse as of late, running his best speed figures on that surface this year. His runner-up effort behind next-out winner Floki’s Flight last time suggests he’s maintaining solid form, and now he’s getting back on his preferred surface. He projects to get a good trip saving ground from this inside post under Romero Maragh, who has ridden pretty well lately.
Fair Value:
#3 MAGICAL WAYS, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 11
Disco Star (#2) ran quite well on debut at Saratoga, chasing home the highly regarded Annascaul. She subsequently got rained off the grass last time but still ran on well to close for second. She’s now getting back on her preferred surface, and will be charging late if any pace develops. However, she does have to get a little faster to beat a few of the fillies exiting the Saratoga maiden event won by Marvelous Madison, who of course came back to blow the turn after leading the Miss Grillo. Wild Mischief (#4) achieved the second-best result that day, improving up on her dirt debut after chasing outside early. However, I think some of the second time starters from that affair might have a little more upside. Forever to Go (#9) was setting an honest pace along the inside on the turn before angling off the rail in the stretch. The inside was generally not the place to be on the Mellon turf course late in the meet, so she deserves some credit for hanging on for third. My top pick from that race is Giant’s Audible (#3), who finished fifth at a big price. She broke far the far outside post position and ran like a filly who probably needed the debut experience. She was chasing early but took some awkward steps on the far turn while trying to angle for position. She then regained her stride to briefly challenge in upper stretch before flattening out. I had liked this filly OBS June sales work, and I think she’s capable of better in her second start on grass for Rudy Rodriguez, who adds blinkers to help her focus. She’s drawn in a better inside post this time.
Fair Value:
#3 GIANT'S AUDIBLE, at 8-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 4 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
Former Baffert trainee Usha (#5) makes her first start against NY-breds switching into the John Terranova barn after facing tougher open company fields in California. She ran into graded stakes-winning stablemates in her last couple of starts, chasing home Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante winner Tenma and Grade 2 Oak Leaf winner Non Compliant. While she has shown good early speed in her races, she tends to shorten stride in the late stages. The drop in class may do the trick for this expensive daughter of Tiz the Law, but that sire’s progeny have won just 12% of their dirt sprint starts compared to 31% of all turf starts, which gives me slight cause for pause. Furthermore, the dam was a pretty nice turf sprinter, so I do wonder if dirt is really her best surface. Some may perceive her main rival to be first time starter Unwoke (#6), going out for Jorge Abreu, who is very dangerous with these types. Lord Nelson has decent stats with firsters, but there really isn’t a ton of pedigree on the dam’s side. She shows some quick workouts, so it won’t be a surprise if she has some ability. My top pick is Mischief Lady (#3), who moves back into maiden company after finishing second in the Lady Finger last time at Finger Lakes. This might actually be a tougher spot than that, but I still thought she ran well behind Saratoga debut runner-up Stone Smuggler. This Ed Barker trainee didn’t take to turf on debut, but she’s bred to be much more of a dirt horse, out of a full-sister to New York-bred dirt star Mr. Buff. She’s got real size for a 2-year-old and looks like one that may want even farther down the line. I expect her to apply pressure to the favorite from the start, and I have more trust in her to finish off this 6 furlongs for a barn that has been hot at the meet.
Fair Value:
#3 MISCHIEF LADY, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 2
This allowance optional claimer only drew a field of 5 runners, but there is some quality among this group. The horse to beat is probably Bendoog (#3), who narrowly missed in the Grade 2 Suburban three starts back at Saratoga. He was only beaten a half-length by Crupi, who would go on to finish a strong second in the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga. However, since then the results have been a little disappointing for Bendoog. He received plenty of support get bet down to 7-2 in the Charles Town Classic, but was never a factor behind Skippylongstocking. Then last time he went favored in a softer spot at Churchill and couldn’t reel in the frontrunner Pipeline. He now looks to bounce back in his return to the NYRA circuit. Another horse making his way back to New York is Law Professor (#1), who had plenty of success here over the past couple of seasons, winning the Queens County and Excelsior in 2023 before pairing up victories at this level earlier this year. He was sold at auction for $230k after that February victory and transferred to a different trainer. He didn’t show up at all for the new connections in one start at Oaklawn, but he’s had plenty of time since then and has been returned to Rob Atras. His best race will make him tough for this group to handle. My top pick is Classic Catch (#5). This horse showed talent as a 3-year-old, earning a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure when beating older rival Costa Terra at Saratoga in August 2023. He then was arguably best after getting away to a poor start in the off the turf Jockey Club Derby. Given that form, his 4-year-old results have been disappointing, but he has had more than his fair share of excuses. He was wide against a strong rail bias when he made his return on April 13 at Keeneland. He then should have won on June 12 at Churchill when his jockey spent too much time waiting for room inside, getting shuffled back to upper stretch before finding room too late. He didn’t run well in his most recent start at Saratoga, but he also had little chance to make an impact after getting hung 4 to 5-wide around both turns against a pretty tough field. He figures to get a smoother journey in this smaller field, and his best efforts put him right on par with the favorites.
Fair Value:
#5 CLASSIC CATCH, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 3
I’m not trying to beat gate to wire threat Granadilla (#1), who may finally be finding the right field as she attempts to snap a streak of minor awards. She’s obviously burned some money in her career, but she has run better than it appears on a few occasions, such as three back when she was contesting a very fast pace that collapsed. She then ran into the talented Cruise to Catalina two back, and last time was chasing outside against a rail bias in a tough race for the level. She figures to get a softer pace setup with the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, and there just doesn’t appear to be much speed in here to apply serious early pressure. Rick Dutrow adds Lasix, and it looks like today’s her best chance to get that diploma. I prefer her to main rival Gallant Greta (#5), who finished behind that filly on debut. While she did break slowly in that lone dirt start, she spent nearly her entire trip thereafter riding that gold rail, so I thought her performance was slightly enhanced. She subsequently switched right over to grass and ran well on that surface. While it was encouraging to see her show more tactical speed last time, I get the sense that she’s better on turf. Purpose (#6) seems like a more interesting horse to key underneath the top pick. She has to improve a little, but she arguably has the most upside of the main players in just her third career start. She wanted no part of that two-turn distance against stakes company last time, and cuts back in an appropriate spot.
Fair Value:
#1 GRANADILLA, at 9-5 or greater
RACE 4
I’m not really against either favorite, but they’re both pretty obvious options. Scarlet Poppy (#7) faces the boys for the first time after getting pretty unlucky in her last couple of starts against her own gender. She was totally blocked in traffic when trying to move between horses in the stretch of that July 27 affair at Saratoga, never getting a chance to run. Then last time she got bumped and steadied out of position right at the start before making up ground in the lane. She’s better than that, which she showed three back chasing home the talented Risk Threshold. A repeat of that 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure might make her too tough for this group to handle. Main rival Summer in Erin (#1) exits a stronger race at this level at Saratoga, where he chased home favored second time starter Creditworthy. He was no match for the top two that day, but did lose some momentum angling inside of a clear path in the stretch. I am mildly concerned that the runner-up from that race returned to do so poorly next time, but it might not be that relevant. Firster Father Dalton (#5) is a little interesting for Mike Maker, but that barn has been pretty cold lately, and it’s not as if Maker is necessarily known for winning on debut anyway. I wonder if the flashy published workouts could pull in too much money. My top pick is Chou Chou d’Aven (#2), who gets on turf for the first time. It would appear that Ken McPeek just left this French-bred colt in that off the turf race to get some experience and fitness into him. He actually showed decent early speed to keep touch with the leaders before fading behind those two superior dirt horses. His pedigree is all turf, by a European sire out of a dam who has produced a Group 3 winner on grass in Australia. McPeek rarely runs horses in turf sprints, so he must feel this one is well suited to the distance to enter him back going short second time out.
Fair Value:
#2 CHOU CHOU D'AVEN, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
I’m mildly skeptical of the two horses that could vie for favoritism in this state-bred allowance. Just Step On It (#8) has obviously run speed figures two and three back that would make him too fast for this crew to handle. However, he was never a serious threat when fading to fourth in the Grade 1 Haskell, even though the number came up fast. I thought he ran better two back when second in the Smarty Jones, battling back gamely when passed by the talented Gould’s Gold in the lane. He obviously was no match for a tough group in the Pennsylvnia Derby, but I don’t love that he was eased that day, being a horse who typically fights on to the finish. The other horse who could take money is Get a Job (#1), who narrowly missed at this level last time. He got a perfect trip and pace setup when he broke his maiden two back, and ran a little better in defeat last time. I’m just not convinced he’s going to appreciate this stretch-out to 9 furlongs. I’m most interested in a couple of horses drawn outside. There’s nothing particularly exciting about Bad Larry (#6), but he just appears to fit this race pretty well. He’s handled the 9-furlong distance well enough in the past to suggest he handles it. He also is coming off the best race of his career when staying on for third in that common Sep. 29 race despite having to alter course in the stretch. I’m primarily using him in exotics. My top pick is that race’s 5th-place finisher Noonzio (#7). I’ve been chasing this colt a bit, but I want to give him one more chance at this level. He didn’t appear to be that comfortable vying for the lead on the inside last time when Kendrick Carmouche seemed intent to rush him forward early to secure that rail position. He battled on even when passed in the lane and actually galloped out better than those who went by him in the lane. He’s a long-striding son of Malibu Moon who gives off the vibe that added distance should benefit him. Michelle Giangiulio adds blinkers this time, and Ricardo Santana should fit him well. He seems like the kind of horse who wants to get into a comfortable rhythm, and he should have the opportunity to do that breaking towards the outside going a longer distance. The price should be fair.
Fair Value:
#7 NOONZIO, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
I don’t want to settle for a short price on Java Buzz (#7), who ran so well off the layoff in July but hasn’t quite recaptured that form in two starts since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. He was dueled into defeat two back at Saratoga, and then had little excuse to lose last time when setting the pace over a course that was kind to inside runners. This might be a slightly softer race for the level, but he could face some early pace pressure from a horse like Cadamosto (#1A) off the layoff. The entry is a tough pair to read with one coming off such a long layoff and the other showing such awful recent form. I’m inclined to let them beat me. Hilarious Affair (#9) might be the most reliable option after closing well for third in his last couple of starts at this level. He couldn’t quite reel in Java Buzz last time, but arguably ran the better race after getting away to a slow start. The problem is that he has a habit of breaking slowly, and it could be tough to close from last over this course when the rails are at 0 feet. Air Invasion (#4) is draw better for this configuration, but he's returning from a long layoff needing to improve. This half-brother to top turf sprinter Big Invasion is returning at the right distance, but his worktab is strangely thin for a barn that usually puts more training into them. I see two interesting alternatives to consider. The more logical of those is Feathers Road (#5). David Jacobson has been a little quiet at this meet, but some of his horses have been running well without winning. This horse ran very well to just miss at a huge price at Saratoga back in July, and then was chasing too close to a quick pace on Aug. 14. He was surprisingly effective going longer two back, and then was in too tough against a salty state-bred optional claiming field last time. He also didn’t get the right trip that day, breaking slowly and then going extremely wide early. He figures to save more ground here, which is important over this turf course, and he’s usually a generous price. My top pick is first time turfer Neuschwanstein (#3), who makes his first start off the claim for Ray Handal. He has to improve slightly stepping up in class, but I think there’s some pedigree evidence to suggest he will take to grass. His dam didn’t win on turf, but handled it in her only try, and his only sibling did place in a turf handicap in England. Damsire Dynaformer is obviously a good turf influence, and his sire Bayern is a highly underrated turf stallion. Bayern’s progeny collectively win 15% of their turf sprint starts, and many of his best runners have been turf horses. Ray Handal doesn’t have great statistics with this move, but the immediate intention to get on turf piques my interest, and he's drawn well inside with speed.
Fair Value:
#3 NEUSCHWANSTEIN, at 8-1 or greater
#5 FEATHERS ROAD, at 9-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 7 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 9 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 8 - 4 - 5 - 10
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 1A - 2
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 8: 8 - 2 - 1 - 10
Race 2: Lotsa Trouble (#1)
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I’m never inclined to take a short price on horses like Bourbon Chase (#6), who have a knack for hitting the board while rarely winning. This 4-year-old has finished second or third in 11 of his 16 starts to go along with just two victories. His character flaws have been on full display in his last couple of starts, as each time he ranged up like a potential winner at the eight pole before flattening out late. I’m also not confident that this son of Practical Joke will get better with added distance as he stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. His most obvious rival appears to be Engineer Empire (#5), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Christophe Clement, the second long break during his brief career. It’s a minor concern that he ran much better in his second start of each prior form cycle, so perhaps he will again need a start coming off a layoff. However, he does appear to be training well, and this 9-furlong distance obviously suits him. Christophe Clement also does very well in these situations, going 7 for 21 (33%, $3.51 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt routes over 5 years. I’m more interested in another horse looking to get back to his best form from last winter. Lotsa Trouble (#1) looked like a New York-bred on the rise when he won that first level allowance race in March, drawing off convincingly in the late stages to earn a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure, an encouraging number for a young 3-year-old. However, he then went to the sidelines, and he failed to make much of an impact when he returned earlier this month in a turf sprint. Yet that race had the feel of a prep, and now he stretches out switching back over to his preferred surface. This two-turn distance may seem like a stretch at first glance, but he had a major excuse in his only prior dirt route attempt, racing wide against one of the strongest rail biases of the entire year in New York. He also has some pedigree to go longer, being a half-brother to the talented Donegal Surges, who has run two of the best races of his career going this distance on dirt. This son of World of Trouble doesn’t look like a sprinter, with his long, loping strides, and I think we’re going to see a much better effort out of him in this spot.
Fair Value:
#1 LOTSA TROUBLE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 3
I don’t completely trust Sweet Anniversary (#3) to bring her improved Finger Lakes form back to the NYRA circuit. She was no match for one of today’s rivals when she tried this level at Saratoga three back. Perhaps she has just taken to routing in her last couple of starts, but she’s been beating up on vastly inferior competition and is going to take money based on those races. I much prefer main rival Nolita (#7), who finished ahead of the likely favorite when they met at Saratoga in August. She was no match for winner Cruise to Catalina, but that’s a filly with some real talent. Nolita subsequently disappointed as the favorite going a mile last time, but she got the wrong trip. She was mildly shuffled back heading down the backstretch, putting her out of position in a race dominated by forward runners. She also raced 3-wide against a strong rail bias on Sep. 27, which makes her performance look worse than it was. I don’t mind this distance for her, and she figure to be much more forwardly placed provided a clean break from the outside post this time.
Fair Value:
#7 NOLITA, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 5
Stamp of Approval (#5) didn’t run that badly in her first couple of starts on dirt, but it did appear that she took a step forward when switched to turf last time. She not only ran a much faster speed figure, but she performed better than the raw result indicates. That race was falling apart in the late stages and she did well to hold on for third after setting an honest pace. A repeat of that performance makes her the clear horse to beat. However, the fact that she’s dropping in for a tag could be viewed as a slight negative. She seemingly ran well enough to merit another shot against maiden special weight company, but now Chad Brown is dumping her in for $75k off a 4-month layoff. Perhaps it’s just a logical spot for a horse who probably isn’t bound for stakes, but I would be mildly skeptical at a short price. I also want no part of longtime maiden Positive Carry (#3), who just can't seem to find the winner's circle. I see a couple of interesting alternatives. One of those is Its Satisfactual (#4), who drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. She did compete in some optional claiming races for Florida-breds last winter, but was protected both times. She also got some crazy trips in those races, getting away slowly before making a wide run on Jan. 26, and then getting completely sawed off in traffic when rallying on Mar. 28. She was off for some time after that, and only got back on turf in August, where she had another tough trip at Colonial, going 4-wide on the turn before getting overhauled by a superior rival. She’s better than she looks and is landing in a logical spot. My top pick is Dazzling Cruiser (#8), who also drops in for a tag for the first time after a couple of maiden special weight attempts. Her debut was actually a pretty good effort. The race was dominated up front by a winner who set a controlled pace, and she was finishing best of all late before galloping out strongly. She went off at a big price that day, and again got little respect in her second start, where she disappointed. Yet perhaps she didn’t like the trip she got, as she was used to go forward early while angling off the rail to chase outside. She was 3-wide on the far turn with poor cover, and never could mount a rally. I sense she’s better than that, and now she’s dropping into an appropriate spot.
Fair Value:
#8 DAZZLING CRUISER, at 4-1 or greater
#4 ITS SATISFACTUAL, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 6
A few of these faced off in a similar auction restricted maiden optional claimer in late September. I had liked Western Wolf (#1A) that day based on his workouts, and he ran pretty well on debut, showing the early speed that I expected before getting tired late. However, now he’s returning as part of an entry, which I’m not thrilled about. Furthermore, he’s stretching out an extra half-furlong, which may not suit this speedy colt. I also wonder if he’s a horse who is ultimately going to be better on turf, being a son of Street Boss with a little bit of turfy action. Another second time starter who I find more interesting from that Sep. 28 spot is Chris’s Revenge (#7), who had a more eventful trip. He was off slowly and then quickly made progress down the backstretch, moving through inside to chase in mid-pack on the turn. He never stopped trying even into the stretch to get up for fifth. That was an encouraging debut for the level, and Brittany Russell does fairly well with second time starters. He just has to break more alertly this time. My top pick is a horse that might get somewhat overlooked with the experienced runners attracting most of the attention. Daw Samaa (#6) goes out for connections that aren’t known for winning with first time starters, but the Kantarmacis rarely get win-early types into their barns. This colt is certainly bred to be precocious, by 19% juvenile debut sire Omaha Beach out of a mare by Tiz Wonderful, another sire who would get progeny that develop early. The dam produced one fast debut winner as well as some other foals who didn’t do much on the track. I only found video of one workout, a slow fitness-building drill at Saratoga. Yet he looked like a well-developed horse with plenty of size and a nice stride on him. It seems like a good sign that Kendrick Carmouche is hopping aboard for connections that rarely use him, so I’ll take a shot at the expected price.
Fair Value:
#6 DAW SAMAA, at 7-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 1A/1 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 10 - 11
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 3 - 10
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this opener, sending out the two likely favorites. The proven option isCatalyzed (#6), who has crossed the wire in second-place in all three prior starts. Despite that string of seconds, she has been improving with each race, putting forth her best performance last time when chasing an honest pace and catching her main pace rival before both were overhauled by the superior Vina Arana. She faces off against that same pacesetter Just So Pretty (#4) once again, and I do prefer her to that foe. However, now you have to take a pretty short price on a horse whose form is totally exposed. I’m more intrigued by Chad’s first time starter Counterinteligence (#5), who was purchased overseas for the U.S. equivalent of $456k. This daughter of Frankel is out of a dam who won a Group 3 in France and placed in a couple of Group 1 races including the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp. It appears that she’s been training well, as that Sep. 21 gate workout matches recent debut winner Fully Subscribed. Chad tends to do better with his older first time starters on turf, so this one would be no surprise. I’m just more interested in betting another debut runner at a bigger price. Selfless (#3) has obviously taken a long time to get to the races, now debuting in October of her 4-year-old season. She’s been in training for much of that time, having logged 41 timed workouts prior to this unveiling, with many stops and starts along the way. However, it seems like she’s been training pretty consistently since being brought back for this most recent cycle of drills. I caught video of one of her turf workouts at Saratoga this summer, in company with this barn’s maiden winner Perretti, who races on Friday. From a physical standpoint, she towered over that mate, and quickened nicely after just playing around early in the drill. I get the sense there’s a bit of talent here, and she’s bred to be a nice runner, by Into Mischief out of a dam who was a stakes winner on grass. Phil Antonacci has had limited opportunities with first time starters, but has won with a couple that were well meant.
Fair Value:
#3 SELFLESS, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 5
Coast Along (#1) left the New York circuit in May looking like a horse destined for maiden claiming races after fading to last in a two-turn race here. However, now he returns as the likely favorite in an N2X allowance. Turning this gelding back to sprint distances has transformed him, producing two blowout victories in the mid-Atlantic region and speed figures that make him the horse to beat at this tougher level. That 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for his most recent victory is no fluke, as the 2nd through 5th-place finishers all returned to improve in their next starts. Perhaps he’s now ready to continue his ascent against tougher company, but I’m not totally sold yet. This gelding set legitimate fractions but got away with uncontested leads in each of those last two starts, and we already know he’s a horse who needs to be alone in front to run his race. I just wonder how he's going to deal with pressure to his outside from Fore Harp (#9), who has the exact same running style as the favorite. I find a horse like Anaconda (#10) to be more trustworthy. He encountered some traffic in the stretch before rallying belatedly. Now he’s making his third start off a long layoff, and he might still have a step forward in him as he looks to get back to some of his superior efforts from the past. Fluid Situation (#2) is quick enough to be involved early, but is versatile enough to sit just off the two speeds up front. This John Terranova trainee is coming off two poor efforts, but he was basically eased last time at Saratoga, and prior to that had made a big mid-race move to overcome a poor start at Laurel. He’s returning to a course over which he’s had success and shouldn’t be underestimated at a price. My top pick is Seaver (#8). This gelding’s form is a little tough to read, since he ran some impressive speed figures at Gulfstream over the winter, and then failed to take that form north to Aqueduct in May. However, he ran better than it looks in that prior start at this distance since he got hung out very wide on the far turn and was actually staying on well late. He didn’t run that much worse than Twenty Six Black and Works for Me, who would both be contenders in this spot. Since then Seaver ran very well to close into a slow pace against superior company in the Select, and then last time was always out of position before being guided down to the rail on the Mellon turf course, which was not the place to be late in the Saratoga meet. He’s good enough to win here and figures to get somewhat overlooked.
Fair Value:
#8 SEAVER, at 6-1 or greater
#2 FLUID SITUATION, at 12-1 or greater
RACE 8
My Life Story (#9) has earned plenty of speed figures that are faster than those of his rivals in this state-bred maiden claimer. However, those numbers are trending in the wrong direction, and he’s already had his chances to break through at this level. He did run a decent race when cut back to this 6-furlong distance last time, tracking down a pace rival from a wide draw and before getting overhauled late. However, he once again lacked a late punch in the final furlong, which has been an issue for him even in his races going longer. Joel Rosario now takes over the mount, and will need to time this runner’s move perfectly if he is to be successful. That’s not the kind of horse I would want to rely on at a short price. I would prefer the filly Starsinthecity (#3) out of that Sep. 19 race. She hung a bit in deep stretch, but she did edge past My Life Story at the wire after stalking outside on the turn. She’s less exposed than that rival and drew well inside. I would still rather lean towards horses coming from different directions. The horse with the best form sprinting on turf is Scherzando (#10), but he’s had even more chances than My Life Story, seeing his first victory in his 26th lifetime start. Only 7 of those races have been turf sprints, and he’s hit the board in 5 of those efforts, all against maiden special weight company. This drop in class should help, but he has a layoff to overcome, and he drew a wide post. Spoken Bluntly (#2)might be the horse to beat as he drops back down into a maiden claiming race after trying maiden special weight foes last time. He chased the winner Master Freud and was just turned away by that rival in the lane. He might have run even better two back at this level when staying on for third against a strong field, which featured multiple runners who came back to improve their speed figures in their subsequent starts. His tactical speed should ensure him a good trip. My top pick is Cousin Ed (#1), who exits the same race as Spoken Bluntly, finishing just behind that rival. I thought this gelding might have run the better race as he was intentionally rated away from the gate, and raced in traffic around the turn. He had little chance to close given the slow fractions – indicated in TimeformUS by the blue-colored pace figures – which were set by eventual winner Master Freud. This horse had also run better than it appears on debut when getting too keen early, chasing a fast pace while hung wide on the clubhouse turn. I like that Christophe Clement is keeping him at a sprint distance, and now he’s dropping back down to the right level.
Fair Value:
#1 COUSIN ED, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 1/1A - 11
Race 6: 9 - 7 - 8 - 10
Race 7: 4 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 9 - 10 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 7 - 1 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
A couple of horses who could take money in this $25k conditioned claimer exit the Sep. 14 race at this level won by Montebello. Magia Nera (#4) just missed by a head that day settling for second, but that’s a pretty familiar scenario for him. He’s finished in the runner-up position in 7 of his 19 career starts with just 2 victories. He had every chance to get there in his last start and just couldn’t withstand the late charge of the winner. He’s been in solid form recently and clearly took a step forward off the claim for David Jacobson. I just don’t totally trust him to seal the deal. Neuschwanstein (#9)was only beaten a length by Magia Nera last time, but he didn’t have much of an excuse after getting away with some pretty soft fractions up front. I think he has to run better to beat this field, and it remains to be seen if he will hold that form after being claimed away from Wayne Potts. I prefer a couple of runners dropping down out of a tougher $35k conditioned claimer on Sep. 20. Watasha (#2) was entered for the claiming waiver that day, and ran like a horse who needed a race off the layoff. He was a little slow away from the gate and moved up to chase the pace before fading late in a race the was dominated by a pair of deep closers. This horse has races from the latter half of 2023 that would make him awfully tough for this field to handle. Perhaps he’s just not that same horse anymore after spending so much time on the shelf, but he has a right to take a step forward second off the layoff. My top pick is Heard On Thestreet (#7), who exits that same Sep. 20 affair. He got bumped around soon after the start and was initially towards the back of the pack before making an early backstretch move into contention. He continued to go forward pressing the pace to lead just past the quarter pole, essentially breaking the race open. He ultimately got swallowed up late by the two dropdown closers Debate and Two for Charging, but he held on well for third. This 3-year-old had been steadily improving since mid-summer, and I thought he took another step forward getting back into the Wayne Potts barn last time. He’s drawn well towards the outside here and should sit a good stalking trip in a race that doesn’t appear to feature that much pace.
Fair Value:
#7 HEARD ON THESTREET, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 3
The lack of pace in this Grade 3 Knickerbocker makes it a very difficult race to handicap. The horse to beat is probably Siege of Boston (#6), who sports the best overall form coming into this affair. However, his lack of early speed and outside post position make me concerned that he might be relegated to an outside chasing trip. He also has been a little too content to settle for minor awards over the past year, finishing second or third 7 times in his last 9 starts without winning. Chad Brown has entered a pair of runners, including the most intriguing horse in the field, Redistricting (#1). This gelding created a stir on debut over a year ago when he won so impressively at Belmont. Chad Brown subsequently got very ambitious with him, trying him in Grade 1 stakes in two of his next three starts. Something obviously went wrong in the Hollywood Derby when he bolted on the turn, and he's gotten plenty of time off since then. He returns in another ambitious spot despite still being eligible for an N2X allowance, and he might have the tactical speed to get forward in his paceless race. Chad’s other horse Andthewinneris (#2) has slowly been coming around since returning from a layoff this summer, running his best race to date last time. He got a good trip saving ground along the rail but still put in a strong finish to just miss in a race that featured some extremely fast closing fractions. My top pick is Reckoning Force (#4). I thought this 4-year-old ran quite well to beat an N2X allowance field two back, applying pressure to main rival Mondego on the front end before putting that foe away and holding off the closers late. That aggressive style clearly worked for him, and Eric Cancel would be wise to go forward with him here, since he looks like the best candidate to take advantage of a lack of early speed in this field. Reckoning Force stepped up against stakes company last time but was always out of position after getting squeezed back at the start. That race featured some quick fractions but was dominated on the front end, and he was finishing well late. I like him stretching back out to 9 furlongs, and it seems like Walsh has found a good spot for him.
Fair Value:
#4 RECKONING FORCE, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 4
Wine Responsibly (#3) could go favored as he drops down in class for Linda Rice. This horse is going to get claimed as they are giving him away for less than he appears to be worth after just one decent return effort at Saratoga. You would think that he might get a chance to move forward off that start, but he is instead dropping down to this bottom level conditioned claimer. He handled a mile when he broke his maiden as a 2-year-old and figures to be tough for this field to handle if he moves forward at all on that last race. Main rival York Tavern (#6) seemed to improve coming to this circuit for Wayne Potts last time after making a couple of starts for that barn at Monmouth. He did get a very good trip just chasing superior winner Smile Mon in a race dominated on the front end. The winner got away with very comfortable fractions and this horse just followed him home. I would rather take Assertive Attitude (#5) out of that spot. He has been steadily progressing through three starts at this level since breaking his maiden against cheaper company at Monmouth this summer. He was a step slow away from the gate two back and finished decently in a race dominated up front at Saratoga. Then last time he finished 3 lengths behind York Tavern, but I thought he ran just as well. He hit the gate and got bumped at the start, putting him pretty far back early. Yet he made steady progress through the pack and was finishing best of all across the wire in a speed-dominated affair. I’m hoping Jose Gomez can keep him more engaged early this time, and I think he can outfinish his two main rivals if he’s in contention at the quarter pole.
Fair Value:
#5 ASSERTIVE ATTITUDE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
I don’t have a major knock against City of Oscars (#7), who is the proven turf horse in this lineup. He ran pretty well on debut, where he got fouled approaching the quarter pole and overreacted by drifting out before straightening up to finish with interest. Then last time he was chasing home the same horse that fouled him on debut, and looked like a winner in deep stretch before getting turned away at the wire. He still ran a strong race, though the form wasn’t exactly flattered when Warheart came back to finish 7th in the G2 Bourbon. Moment’s Notice (#5) ran well in his 3 prior dirt starts while facing some good horses, including subsequent G3 Iroquois winner Jonathan’s Way. However, he has lost twice in a row at short prices, so now the connections are trying something a little different. More Than Ready is a solid turf influence, but there’s limited pedigree on the dam’s side. Christophe Clement is 11 for 34 (32%, $3.04 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time in sprints over 5 years, but I still wouldn’t want to take too short a price on this one. King Express (#10) put in an encouraging effort on debut, lacking early speed before finishing with good interest. He did lug in a bit in upper stretch, and has a right to improve here if able to run a more professional race. There are also some first time turfers to consider. McHale (#8) doesn't have an abundance of pedigree from his dam, but Maclean's Music is a 15% turf sprint sire, and he runs like a horse that might appreciate this surface switch. My top pick is another first time turfer, Pure Money (#9). The connections paid up for this pedigree based on a 10 1/5 workout at OBS March. He didn’t take any money on debut last month and ran a like a horse who probably needed the race. He has some pedigree for turf, being by burgeoning turf influence Collected. There isn’t a ton of obvious turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but the dam is a half-sister to turf winner Gangbuster, who ran well in stakes on turf and synthetic. Most importantly, this horse has the action of a turf runner, looking especially turf meant in that OBS drill. I think he’s going to appreciate getting on this surface.
Fair Value:
#9 PURE MONEY, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 7
I’m not thrilled with the short-priced options in this $10k claimer. Cumberland Blues (#8) is the ‘now’ horse, having won at this level last time out with a respectable speed figure. However, I didn’t like the way he was drifting out through the stretch, and I don’t fully trust him to win two races in a row as he steps up against a field that’s a little tougher than the one he faced last time. Barese (#9) seems like the other logical contender as he drops down out of a tougher $16k claimer. He’s obviously proven to be a poor claim for $45k, as the Kantarmacis have been unable to resurrect his past form. However, he did at least show some signs of life in his most recent start, flashing improved early speed before fading a bit late. He’s coming back on relatively short rest but figures to be a factor with a similar type of effort. There is some speed signed on in here, so I think there’s the possibility some closers could get involved. Commandperformance (#1) has become a deep closer these days, so he definitely requires a setup. Yet perhaps this class relief will be enough to wake him up, as he has been chasing home much better foes through all of his recent starts. It’s been a while since he’s put forth a competitive effort, but this drop in class figures to suit him. My top pick is Rock the Weekend (#4), who dropped down to this level last time when returning from a brief layoff. He actually had good early position in that race before losing contact with the leaders on the turn. It looked like he was going to fade out of contention, but then he was staying on again late. Katie Davis was riding him for the first time, and should have gotten familiar with some of his quirks. I don’t mind him stretching back out to a mile here, and I think he’s capable of producing a better performance at this level after spending so many races running against tougher competition through the spring and summer.
Fair Value:
#4 ROCK THE WEEKEND, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
I suppose Starlight Dancer (#1) is the horse to beat after twice finishing second at this level in her last two starts. She got a very good trip last time, setting a measured pace up front as the two speeds dominated that affair during a time when the inner turf course was kind to forwardly placed runners. Now she’s being asked to get 9 furlongs, which seems like a stretch for a daughter of War Dancer. She drew well once again, but I’m reluctant to take a short price on her. I have some interest in Hayes Bay (#7) getting on turf for the first time. Mike Maker and the connections have clearly wanted to get her on grass in her last couple of starts, and she’s been rained off both times. She has some dam’s side pedigree for this surface, and may get somewhat overlooked in the wagering after all of those lackluster dirt performances. My top pick is Lady Laoban (#5). She’s had more chances than some others in this field, but she ran a lot better than it appears last time. As stated above, that Sep. 14 race was dominated by forward runners, and she was always out of position after stumbling at the start. She was still far back at the quarter pole and actually did some running through the lane to just miss getting up for fourth. She also had a tough trip on June 8 at Saratoga when chasing a fast pace that ultimately collapsed. She’s held her own against tougher maiden special weight rivals and deserves another chance at this level.
Fair Value:
#5 LADY LAOBAN, at 5-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 2B - 9
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 11 - 8 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 9 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 11: 2 - 10 - 11 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Dillinger (#7) could go favored in this starter allowance off a fading second-place finish at the same level at Saratoga. He got a very good trip that day dueling for the front end before shaking loose in the stretch. The race was flattered when winner Bramito came back to win against a tougher field last week. He’s a contender, but his form is totally exposed. I prefer that races third-place finisher Tommy Two Socks (#1), since he advanced to press the pace while racing wide before fading to third. He’s improved since the claim by Linda Rice, but is part of an entry with Master of Arms (#1A), which will mitigate any potential value if both run. The speed horse that might offer the best value is Night Effect (#3). He arguably ran the best race of anyone in this field last time when second at this level behind the vastly improved Brad Cox trainee Emirates Road. He’s another who prefers to be forwardly and has been in great form recently. The only concern is the slight cut back in distance to 7 furlongs since he appears to be best at a mile is drawn inside of those two main pace rivals. Given the apparent speed in this field, I believe there is the potential for the race to come apart late. That would suit Debate (#6), who is coming off a victory against weaker $35k claimers. He made a bold run from well off the pace, albeit with a good setup, and outdueled a fellow late runner to win going away late. He’s been in deceptively strong form since getting claimed by Michelle Giangiulio, running particularly well three back on Aug. 1 when making a wide move against a rail bias going a distance that is too far for him. He ran well at this 7-furlong distance last time and has prior races that suggest he can run fast enough to handle this step up in class. The Michelle Giangiulio barn has been performing at a high level over the last several months and Kendrick Carmouche is her go-to rider.
Fair Value:
#6 DEBATE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 4
My primary opinion in this $16k claimer is that I want to play against Rider’s Special (#9), who figures to go favored as he drops down in class for Linda Rice. He obviously has form that would beat this field, but he’s steadily regressed since winning his return from a layoff in June. He ran a strange race on July 14, breaking with the leaders before dropping back around the turn only to come on again in the stretch to just miss. He showed that same tendency to disengage from the race on the turn last time, and never recovered. Now Rice is dropping him all the way down to this $16k level, raising some red flags. There are other options to consider in this wide open affair. There doesn’t appear to be that much speed signed on, which could help Ryan’s Cat (#2B), if he is the half of the Potts entry to start (one must scratch). He rarely competes this cheaply, but he has run well in his few starts at or around claiming levels like this. He’s not the quickest away from the gate, but there aren’t many other confirmed frontrunners in this field, and he has run well when able to control slow paces. It also doesn’t hurt that he switches into the barn of Wayne Potts, who is having a strong meet. Pogi (#7) has battled ‘seconditis’ for much of his career, and hasn’t won a race since the end of 2022. Yet his last two dirt sprints for the Michelle Giangiulio barn make him a contender in this spot. He chased home a superior rival on May 19 and then was pretty game to just miss in a blanket finish against a tougher field in July. He didn’t run well last time, but he’s just not a two-turn horse. He’s dropping into a realistic spot off the slight layoff, and I’m using him. My top pick is Nolo Contesto (#6). He ran a race that would make him tough for this group to handle just three starts ago in July when chasing home the consistent Amundson. He then tried turf, and last time found himself in an unusually tough $16k claimer on closing weekend at Saratoga. That day featured a mild rail bias, and he was chasing very wide on the turn before fading. He’s now claimed by Rob Atras, and should fit well against this group if able to get back to any of his fast track dirt performances from earlier in the spring and summer. He also has more tactical speed than he’s shown recently if Ricardo Santana can take advantage of it.
Fair Value:
#6 NOLO CONTESTO, at 4-1 or greater
#7 POGI, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t have major issues with the two favorites in this Sands Point, though I wonder how much upside either of them still have. Spaliday (#2) might have reached her ceiling in the Lake Placid last time as she got a great trip, saving ground over a course that was kind to inside runners, and was just fourth-best. That said, the three fillies who finished ahead of her would all be favored against this group, so this is probably a drop in class even though it’s another Grade 2 race. She doesn’t have much early speed, but has consistently improved this year and is a contender. Main rival Style Points (#6) may get the jump on her, since she possesses more natural tactical speed. She’s another whose form is relatively exposed, having gotten a great trip when she dead-heated for the victory in the Virginia Oaks last time. She may not need to improve on that performance to win here, and is a contender. The toughest call in the race is deciding what to do with Macanga (#4), who might have the most raw talent of anyone in this field. It’s just been difficult for her to harness her speed through her recent starts. Given that propensity to run off with her riders, I have no idea why she was entered in the 11-furlong Jockey Club Oaks last time. It was easy to predict what would happen, as Lane Luzzi couldn’t prevent her from setting a ridiculously fast pace for the distance. She actually did well to lead the field to mid-stretch before getting swallowed up. Cutting back to 9 furlongs is better, but Jose Lezcano needs to find a way to get her to relax early. My top pick is Mo Fox Givin (#1). She feels like the horse that could slip through the cracks here as she comes off a poor effort last time at Kentucky Downs. Yet I don’t want to be too hard on horses for failing to perform at that venue. She never looked comfortable, and probably doesn’t want to go that far anyway. She also never had her best chance to run two back in the Pucker Up when covered up in traffic for much of her trip until it was too late. She ran well in prior starts against some serious competition, earning speed figures that put her right on par with the two favorites. She figures to be the right price, and drew well inside under Dylan Davis.
Fair Value:
#1 MO FOX GIVIN, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 8
Bettrluckythangood (#5) has been in excellent form through his recent starts at this level, improving in each successive race. He got a wide trip trying to close against an inside bias on the inner turf at Saratoga two back. Then last time he again tried to make a wide move around the far turn and was finishing best of all late. He needs a strong setup, and he figures to get that here with the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. Locke and Key (#8) has a similar running style, but he ran a different sort of race when they met in that Sep. 15 affair. After taking up his usual position towards the back of the pack early, he launched a wide backstretch move, advancing without cover before going on to press the pace into the turn. He ultimately flattened out late, but the early move detracted from his finishing ability. He’s another who has been in great form recently, and he might be a slightly better price. My top pick is Clear Conscience (#2). He finished much farther back in that Sep. 15 race, but his trip was a disaster. He got badly hampered at the start, bumped hard between horses and completely steadied out of position. From there he found himself at the back of the pack, giving Jose Lezcano few options. He chose to launch a premature move to get back into the race on the far turn, but got spun 4-wide around that bend, and flattened out from there. He’s much better than that, as he displayed in his prior start, beating a strong N1X allowance field with a competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That effort suggested he had improved off a trainer switch to Mark Casse, and he can build on that form here at a price. I also want to upgrade Agent Creed (#11), who draws into this field after the scratch of Runningwscissors. He also participated in that Sep. 15 affair where he just fell out of position in the early stages, finding himself last past the half-mile pole. He doesn't have to rally from that far behind, and I would hope that Romero Maragh shows a little more initiative from this outside draw. He figures to get somewhat overlooked as he sneaks into the field, and he ran a race two back at Saratoga that is much better than it looks on paper. He was wide without cover for muc of the way and didn't perform any worse than a few of the aforementioned rivals who also took part in that event.
Fair Value:
#2 CLEAR CONSCIENCE, at 7-1 or greater
#11 AGENT CREED, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 11
This isn’t the type of horse I usually highlight, since he could be the favorite. I’m just not trying to beat Atomic Age (#2), who may be a fair price even as the lukewarm public choice in this finale. This horse ran a lot better than it looks on debut. He broke a step slowly and was relegated to the back of the pack behind a dawdling early pace. The race was won on the front end by Simulate, who got to walk on the lead, and most of the horses who were effective behind him rode the inside path over a course that had the rails taken down. Atomic Age was only briefly inside in the opening furlongs before angling to the outside on the backstretch and proceeding to race wide around the far turn. He angled out widest of all into the lane, and then was pushed further out by drifting runners in upper stretch. He actually finished with decent interest, but couldn’t make up ground into some extremely fast closing fractions. Horses have come back out of the race to prove it was a stronger affair than it appeared at the time. States’ Rights (2nd), Warlander (3rd), and Barricade (5th) all came back to win their next starts with improved TimeformUS Speed Figures while West Beach (4th) and Flying Mohawk (6th) were each second next time out with improved figures. Even 8th-place finisher Spurgeon came back after a wide trip to finish a good second on the dirt. Atomic Age has gotten in plenty of works since the debut, and seems like a strong candidate to move forward in his second start. Chad Brown is 20 for 69 (29%, $2.41 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years. I would use him with the logical Davy Crockett (#4), who was a little disappointing last time and lacks the upside of the top pick but is nevertheless a contender. Yet the two more interesting horses to throw into the mix with my top pick are Tom’s Way (#10) and Tiz Freedom (#11). The former is a first time starter with plenty of pedigree that has been working decently for Shug McGaughey, who has solid statistics with these types. The latter goes out for Bill Mott and switches to turf after catching future stakes winners Showcase and Jonathan’s Way in his first two starts. He switches to turf as a son of Tiz the Law, whose progeny are an impressive 10 for 28 (36%) in their turf starts so far.
Fair Value:
#2 ATOMIC AGE, at 2-1 or greater
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