Property Menu
Featured Race:
Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 12 10 PM (Dec 27)
Property Menu
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 1A - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 8 - 5 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 9 - 10 - 8 - 1
Race 10: 12 - 6 - 10 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
She’s Wicked Smart (#3) showed promise on debut as a 2-year-old, checking in third at a big price behind eventual champion filly Just F Y I. However, she went to the sidelines thereafter, and was pretty disappointing when she returned at Saratoga this summer. The drop in class clearly worked for her last time, as she just missed against $20k claimers, getting back to a speed figure that was comparable to her debut effort. She proved her ability to get the 7 furlongs that day, and will be tough to beat here with a similar effort, even as she moves up in class. Among the alternatives is first time starter Panthea (#5), who has a nice pedigree for a filly who sold for just $25k at auction. Her dam won the first 3 starts of her career, including stakes on turf, dirt, and synthetic, and she’s produced a couple of nice turf horses. I’m just not sure this is the right surface, and David Duggan’s runners often need a start. Sandi’s Satire (#7) interests me a little more as she drops in class after debuting against maiden special weight company on turf. She really doesn’t have that much grass pedigree, and she looked like a filly that might have needed that first start for fitness. My top pick is Sally’s Gold (#4). She’s also dropping out of a maiden special weight race, though her debut came against weaker company at Finger Lakes. I just thought she was very green that day, breaking a bit slowly and then running awkwardly at the back of the pack for a trainer whose firsters rarely do much. She seemed to overreact to a drifting rival at the quarter pole and was never in contention from there. I think it’s pretty interesting that she’s switching into the Mike Maker barn and is picking up Dylan Davis for this second start. She has some pedigree to be a runner, and probably deserves another chance in this spot.
Fair Value:
#4 SALLY'S GOLD, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Elliptic (#2) other than the fact that her form is totally exposed. She’s coming off two consecutive victories against slightly weaker company, working out great trips both times. She stalked behind dueling leaders two back and found a convenient split on the far turn before coming on through to win easily. She had to work harder for her starter allowance win last time, and was game to fend off a late challenge, aided by a perfect ground-saving trip. She may have to improve a bi ton that 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field, but she is going out for a dangerous barn. Main rival Empire Magic (#4) is also stepping up in class, having just beaten maidens in her last start. It took her a while to run back to her encouraging debut, where she closed from well off the pace. She started showing more early speed after that, but couldn’t sustain that pace until last time, where she drew off an easy 5-length score. That 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive here, and she’s bred to get this one-mile distance. That filly could face some pace pressure, since Chasing Daylight (#3) and Red Burgundy (#5) figure to show speed on either side of her. The horse who might sit the best trip is Shezanarcticqueen (#8), who should be perched just outside the speeds stalking from mid-pack. This Finger Lakes invader has never raced on the NYRA circuit before, but she has been steadily improving at her home track this year. She really took a step forward when stretched out to route distances this summer, hitting the board in all four of her two-turn dirt races since then. She earned a competitive 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her July victory going this distance, and got back to a similar figure in her stakes placing last time. She didn’t get the best trip that day, as she was off a bit slowly and was pretty keen while racing wide and trying to make an early advance. She strikes me as one who will be well-suited to the one-turn mile configuration at Aqueduct.
Fair Value:
#8 SHEZANARCTICQUEEN, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 6
Likely favorite Volatile Situation (#7) has finished second in both prior starts, running well each time. He was no match for the talented Kenny Be on debut, but still fought on gamely in a strong race for the level. Then last time he drew the far outside post position and advanced willingly despite racing very wide throughout. He challenged for the lead in the stretch but lost a duel with Sir Kartrite, who will face winners for the first time in the next race on this card. He still improved his TimeformUS Speed Figure to 97, which makes him clearly the fastest horse in this field. He shouldn’t mind the extra half-furlong and figures to be tough if he holds his form. I’m just a little more interested in another horse from that Nov. 23 affair. Roofer (#1A) took some money to be 10-1 in that loaded field for connections that rarely get bet on debut. He broke a step slowly from the inside and rushed up down the backstretch before tapping on the brakes. He then made a second move into contention when switching outside on the turn before flattening out late. He showed some likeable qualities that day, and seems like a horse that should possess a lot more early speed if he’s able to break cleanly here. And now he's now even more appealing after his entrymate scratched, since I detest picking entries. For that reason, I also want to give consideration to the first time starter Fireballin (#2). This $100k yearling purchase is by Honest Mischief, who is just 2 for 27 with debut runners, but has really picked up the pace with his runners lately, sweeping both divisions of the New York Stallion Series yesterday. The dam won sprinting on dirt, and her only foal to race is multiple dirt stakes winner Fingal’s Cave, who was also Grade 2-placed. Furthermore, second dam Seeking the Ante was a Grade 2 dirt stakes winner, so this is a strong pedigree. Mike Maker doesn’t have the greatest stats with firsters overall, but I liked this colt’s Nov. 26 workout at Turfway. He was going slightly better than Panthor, who would come back to win a maiden claiming race off that drill.
Fair Value:
#1A ROOFER, at 3-1 or greater
#2 FIREBALLIN, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 3: 2B/2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 9 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 11 - 9 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 10 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 7 - 10
Race 10: 4 - 2 - 1 - 10
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
It’s hard to know exactly where the public will land in this $10k claimer where few horses appear to be in good form. I suppose that makes Jolly Miss Jill (#4) the default favorite, since she’s at least coming off a victory, the only horse in this field to even hit the board in her most recent start. However, that was probably the day to have her at 7-1, as she was finally stretching back out to her preferred one-mile distance. She might repeat the feat with a similar effort, but she doesn’t figure to offer much value. Reigning Chick (#2) will likely run better than she did when defeated by that rival on Nov. 8. Her overgirth came undone very early in that race and went flying off, and Jose Gomez rode her tentatively thereafter. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Orlando Noda’s father, who is deputizing for his son while suspended. However, it is worth noting that this mare actually began her career for the Nodas, so she’s getting claimed back by her original barn. My top pick is She Caught My Eye (#7), who makes her second start off a layoff and second start off the claim for Chad Summers. While I typically don’t like horses claimed away from Linda Rice, this mare had really gone off form for that barn, missing most of the 2024 season. Summers dropped her all the way down to this level off that brief freshening last time, and it played out like a prep. Six furlongs is clearly too short for this 5-year-old, but she was staying on well up the rail late and galloped out best of all. Now she’s stretching out to her preferred one-mile distance, and she should be much more comfortable breaking from the outside post.
Fair Value:
#7 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 4
High Heat (#1) figures to attract support off his victory at the $10k level last time, but he worked out such a perfect trip that day. He didn’t necessarily look like the clear speed on paper, but he got loose up front through moderate fractions and was able to hold on. The form of that race wasn’t exactly flattered when runner-up Classic Mark returned to finish off the board as the even-money favorite in his next start. Now he’s moving up slightly and has to deal with speed from others drawn outside. One of those pace pressers could be Khafre (#3), who looks to rebound from a poor showing last time. He set some quick fractions for the mile distance and traveled well into the stretch, at which point he got overhauled by the superior Runnin’ Ray. From there Joel Rosario just took him in hand as if he felt something go awry, easing him to the wire. I suppose it’s a good sign that he’s back in the entries just 3 weeks later, but he is dropping again. Honorary Degree (#8) was well-beaten by High Heat when they met on Nov. 14, but he's since been claimed by Rob Atras off very low-percentage connections. Claims like this don't always work out, and Atras hasn't exactly been on fire lately, but this horse has back class from the not so distant past that make him competitive here. My top pick is Perfect Flight (#9), another who is getting some minor class relief. He has faced some pretty tough fields at the $16k and $20k levels in his last couple of starts. Natural Harbor, the winner of that Oct. 5 race, came back to just miss against $32k claimers in his next start. Despite the drop in class he might have been facing a tougher field last time, as winner Giroovin came back to finish a good third against $40k claimers yesterday and Montebello won his next start with a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Perfect Flight got wide trips on both occasions, and actually did well to make a middle move last time before flattening out. Now he puts blinkers back on and finally drops to a realistic level. Lolita Shivmangal’s runners tend to get ignored, but she is 11 for 93 (12%, $4.56 ROI) in dirt claiming races at Aqueduct over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#9 PERFECT FLIGHT, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 6
The two fillies who finished in a photo for third in that Nov. 16 maiden race at this level figure to vie for favoritism in this spot. Miss Tiramisu (#7) just edged out Trulli Magic (#9) that day after both took some money in their respective unveilings. Miss Tiramisu did get a wide trip around the far turn, but she got the jump on her rival and was in contention in mid-stretch before flattening out late. Trulli Magic might have run the better overall race, since she was off to a poor start and had to make an early move around the far turn. She did flatten out in the late stages, but never stopped trying through the wire. Between the two, I have slightly more faith in Trulli Magic appreciating the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, since she’s a half-sister to a multiple route winner. I’m actually interested in another horse from that Nov. 16 race. Pretty Magical (#6) finished a good 6 lengths behind those two aforementioned rivals, but I thought she took a meaningful step forward in that spot. This filly had been very green on debut, just completely taking herself out of the race after reacting greenly to kickback. She was much more professional last time, but still didn’t seem totally comfortable racing inside of horses. She was staying on late, and would have finished closer at the end if she didn’t have to alter course in the lane. This daughter of Good Magic is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Highway Star. She’s bred to get better with added ground, and I think we’ll see another step forward going 7 furlongs here.
Fair Value:
#6 PRETTY MAGICAL, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
Bold Ambition (#9) figures to vie for favoritism in this $25k conditioned claimer after finishing second at this level in his most recent start. He lost as the 4-5 favorite that day, but was pretty game in defeat, battling back inside of Vinsanity, who would go on to finish 10th when overmatched in the Cigar Mile. His 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure represented a rebound from a poor performance against tougher company two back. He’s been a popular claim recently, changing hands in each of his last 3 starts, and going out for his 5th different trainer in just his 7th lifetime start. This time he’s in the barn of Michelle Nevin, who is 6 for 41 (15%, $2.05 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over 5 years. He also makes his first start as a new gelding, and is drawn well towards the outside with speed. D Day Sky (#11) is a little more interesting at a bigger price. He was in strong form when initially acquired by his former connections at auction last spring, but seemed to get discouraged when overmatched against allowance company over the summer. He failed to run well at Parx two back, and then was very disappointing when dropped in class down to this level last time. However, he didn’t get the right trip that day, as he broke a step slowly and then rushed up to lead through quick fractions. He paid the price, late, fading to 5th, but the performance isn’t as bad as it looks. Now he’s drawn outside again and should have an opportunity to get a more patient ride. My top pick is Scat Tu Tap (#8). This horse has spent most of his career on turf, where he would fit at this level. He’s 0 for 4 on dirt, but most of those performances came early in his career when he was still a maiden. He did earn a competitive 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure on dirt back in 2024, and then didn’t get back on that surface until last time. Dropped to this level and cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs, he showed uncharacteristic early speed to chase the pace before staying on for third. He only earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but galloped out strongly like a horse looking for more ground. I like him stretching out to a mile here, and he should be a fair price for a low-profile but highly capable trainer.
Fair Value:
#8 SCAT TU TAP, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
Likely favorite Sacrosanct (#2) has done nothing wrong so far in his career. He was professional right from the start, winning his debut at Saratoga before improving in two subsequent stakes scores. He absolutely dominated the Bertram F. Bongard, albeit with a favorable trip riding an advantageous rail, and then had to work harder at a short price last time in the Sleepy Hollow. I do like that he showed a new dimension to stalk the pace that day before taking over, but I wonder if he’ll be able to work out the same trip now breaking from the inside with other speed outside of him. Bold Fortune (#5) looks like the main pace rival after he’s gone gate to wire in each of his last two starts. He’s broken sharply from the gate each time and quickly established a clear lead, but he might not have that luxury here if Sacrosanct is ridden aggressively. Bold Fortune clearly has the talent to beat this group, but he seems like the one that’s committed to doing it the hard way on the front end. I prefer his uncoupled stablemate Soontobeking (#10), who has the opposite running style. He’s the most consistent member of this field, reliably putting in that strong stretch bid regardless of pace or distance. He was no match for Sacrosanct two back in the Sleepy Hollow, but he did finish well going a mile, giving some confidence that this 7-furlong distance will be right up his alley. He finished a photo for third with Smilensaycheese (#4) on that occasion, and I think the Mike Maker trainee might have more upside at a bigger price. This colt showed real talent on debut, overcoming some greenness on the far turn to pull away in an impressive victory. However, that lack of focus became more of an issue in subsequent starts. He bolted on the far turn of the Funny Cide, and then was getting out again in the Bertram F. Bongard. He finally ran a more professional race in the Sleepy Hollow, rating behind horses and finishing with interest once challenged for third late. He still has some mental issues to work out, but he does appear to be heading in the right direction. He has the talent to beat this group if he can finally figure out how to be racehorse, and he figures to be a generous price.
Fair Value:
#4 SMILENSAYCHEESE, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 9
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Boston’s Phinest (#7). She held her own against With the Angels last time in the Maid of the Mist, and that filly would be a heavy favorite in this spot if she were eligible for this race. Boston’s Phinest had no issue stretching out to the mile that day, and looks like one that may ultimately want even more ground, so she definitely has the stamina to get 7 furlongs, which is a question for others in this field. That includes Stone Smuggler (#12), who did prevail in a pace duel in the Key Cents last time before getting overhauled by closers late, including With the Angels. She drew well outside of other speed in here, but I’m not as confident that the added distance is going to benefit her. There does appear to be plenty of pace in this spot, which could favor Storm Changer (#8). This filly didn’t earn much of a speed figure for her debut win in November, but she was visually impressive. Breaking last in the field, she settled at the back of the pack behind a pace that wasn’t particularly fast. Despite not getting a great setup, she advanced willingly on the turn, initially angling out in upper stretch before diving back down to the rail to run right past the leaders. The most impressive part of the race might have been the gallop-out, as she continued to charge into the turn, opening up over 10 lengths on the rest of the field after the wire. She obviously has to run a more complete race to beat this tougher field, but this filly has talent and the right running style. I prefer her to Princess Mischief (#10), who got a fantastic pace setup when she made a similarly impressive rally from off the pace to break her maiden. She also doesn’t have as much apparent upside as Storm Changer. Yet I’m going in a different direction for my top pick. Mischief Lady (#3) has to overcome other speed in the field breaking from an inside post, but I was encouraged by her maiden victory last time out. This filly clearly wasn’t quite ready for her debut this summer, which came on the wrong surface. She took a step forward in that stakes at Finger Lakes behind Stone Smuggler, and then put it all together last time. That was a pretty good former Baffert trainee that she outdueled, pulling away to earn a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest number in this field. She doesn’t strike me as one that needs the lead to be successful, but I do think she’s going to appreciate the added ground. Honest Mischief is a sire who looks like he will get progeny to stretch out, and this filly’s dam is a full-sister to top NY-bred dirt router Mr. Buff.
Fair Value:
#3 MISCHIEF LADY, at 4-1 or greater
#8 STORM CHANGER, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 2 - 1A
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 8: 1A - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Floki’s Flight (#2) will obviously be tough for this field to beat if he maintains his current form, but it’s fair to wonder why he’s dropping in class off two consecutive wins rather than moving up. This horse beat second-level allowance company, albeit in an off the turf race, two back, and he’s since dropped to the $50k level and now down to $40k after a voided claim last time. He might win again, but Linda Rice tends to place these horses realistically, and I’m concerned that she’s expecting a regression. One of his main rivals is a horse who recently exited the Rice barn, as Runnin’ Ray (#4) is coming off an 8-length victory against $20k claimers in his final start for Rice last time out. He was claimed out of that race by Gustavo Rodriguez, and he’ll obviously prove to be a serious rival for his former stablemate if he runs back to his last effort. I’m just concerned that he’s not quite the same horse that he once was for Joe Sharp, and Rodriguez just isn’t as effective with these types as Rice tends to be. Some may look to the Jamie Ness entry, though only one will participate with Ruben Silvera named on both. I would prefer Irish Exit (#1A) based on his form out of town, but it has to be concerned that he hasn’t run as well in his last two starts at Aqueduct. My top pick is Midnight Trouble (#3). I’m encouraged that this horse was claimed back by Tom Morley after he lost him at Saratoga this summer. He didn’t run well in a couple of starts upstate, but he was just badly overmatched in one of those, and he didn’t get a great trip in that 9-furlong affair two back when finishing well behind Runnin’ Ray. I thought he got back on track last time in the Morley barn, closing well for second behind Floki’s Flight in a race dominated on the front end. He had to steady briefly when attempting to rally on the far turn and did well to finish with vigor after altering course. This one-turn mile seems like his best distance, and he should get a fair pace ahead of him.
Fair Value:
#3 MIDNIGHT TROUBLE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
Favoritism in this maiden event could go to Exploration (#8), the lightly raced $900k yearling purchase. He debuted at Fair Grounds last winter for the Brad Cox barn, making a big far turn move to reach the leaders in upper stretch before hanging late. He was then off for most of the year, only returning last month at Parx for new trainer Brittany Russell. He again was sluggish in the early stages but made some progress into the stretch, and continued to run on to just miss. However, he did have dead aim at the winner and never got by that foe even on the gallop-out, suggesting he has some hang in him. This son of Curlin is out of a half-sister to Grade 1-winning dirt router Tara's Tango, so the distance isn’t supposed to be a problem. Brittany Russell is 11 for 36 (31%, $1.94 ROI) with maidens stretching out for the first time on dirt over 5 years. Stronsino (#5) ran some decent races for Steve Asmussen last spring at Oaklawn, picking up a couple of minor awards in dirt routes before fading at Churchill. He missed the summer, and got sold at auction for $80k in August. He made his first start for new trainer Jamie Ness last month, utilizing a ground-saving trip to get up for third in a fast race for the level. He shouldn’t mind stretching out to a mile here, and may have some upside in his second start off the layoff. I trust him slightly more given the recent form at this circuit. My top pick is Luca On Point (#3). This Chad Brown trainee was ignored at 15-1 on debut against a pretty tough field. He ran like a horse who badly needed the experience, as he was away awkwardly and struggled to keep up at the back of the pack early. He never passed a rival but was staying on decently across the wire, only finishing 5 lengths behind the third-place finisher. That form was flattered when winner Masmak returned to win again, beating a tough allowance field in his next start. Chad Brown is an impressive 41 for 131 (31%, $2.10 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years, and he is 11 for 26 (42%, $3.62 ROI) so far in 2024. He adds blinkers and should be capable of a better effort this time.
Fair Value:
#3 LUCA ON POINT, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
Likely favorite Catchphrase (#2) attracted plenty of support when she made her belated debut last month late in her 4-year-old season. She showed good gate speed and laid down some enterprising fractions before tiring late going a demanding 7 furlongs. She never quite threw in the towel as she battled gamely to the wire, earning a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which includes a significant pace upgrade. She was going out for William Walden that day, and now is in the barn of Amelia Green, the former Todd Pletcher assistant who just won with her first starter two weeks ago. This filly should be tough to run down with any progression. One longshot that I find mildly interesting, more so underneath, is Khali’s Storm (#10). She’s totally uncompetitive here based on her prior form, but it’s interesting that Chris Englehart brings her back in such an ambitious spot, and she has apparently been working well. That Oct. 26 gate drill matches Clancy Fancy, who came back to beat maiden special weight company right out of that drill. My top pick is Calling an Audible (#7). This filly ran pretty well here last winter, picking up a series of minor awards once she was switched over to dirt. She maintained that form into the spring, but then went to the sidelines. She failed to run well when returning from a layoff this summer, and then went back to the shelf. She now launches another comeback while turning back to 6 furlongs, a distance over which she ran pretty well back in April behind the impressive Al’s Ruby, who just won her second start in a row. The Ed Barker barn had a strong last few months at Aqueduct, and looks to keep the momentum rolling.
Fair Value:
#7 CALLING AN AUDIBLE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Everyone in this field has questions to answer. Linda Rice sends out a coupled entry that figures to take money since both halves have some appeal. However, Save Us Melania (#1) still has to prove her class at this level after fading going a mile last time. She benefited from a favorable race flow against weaker when she beat starter allowance foes two back. Among the other short prices, Caldwell Luvs Gold (#5) seems more trustworthy as she turns back in distance and switches back to dirt. She ran pretty well on grass two back when finishing third in the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks, but she had previously handled dirt well and started out her career as an effective sprinter. I just wonder if there’s enough pace in here to set her up. She’s a Tempest (#6)probably deserves another chance after she put in a disappointing effort off the layoff for Bill Mott last month. She had shown real ability last winter at Santa Anita for Steve Knapp, running well in a couple of Oaks preps before going to the sidelines. Stretching out slightly should suit her better as she adds blinkers back. Horacio De Paz has a couple of entrants in this field, of which Striker Has Dial (#7) figures to attract more attention. She has run some of the fastest dirt speed figures in this field, but her last dirt effort at Parx was poor, and the subsequent switch to turf was mildly surprising. I just question her current form as she returns to the main track. My top pick is actually the other De Paz trainee Awesome Czech (#4). She obviously looks like even more of a turf horse at first glance, since she’s had the bulk of her success on that surface. Yet she never really was given a chance to develop into a dirt horse early, switching over to grass so early in her career. While she won her turf debut, she really didn’t show that much immediate improvement on grass. It was until she gained some maturity later in the year that she started to blossom. Her pedigree indicates that she’s supposed to handle both surfaces. Mendelssohn is a versatile sire, and her dam was best on dirt. She gets Lasix for the first time as she switches back to dirt, and she appears to train well over this surface. I think she’s interesting at a price.
Fair Value:
#4 AWESOME CZECH, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 6: 9 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 2 - 11
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Street Jam (#2) is obviously the horse to beat in this first of two consecutive N3L $16k claimers. She’s racing off the claim for Linda Rice, who has taken her for the second time. She first claimed this filly for $62,500 last year, then lost her off a layoff for $35k. She then dipped back in to claim her next time for $25k, and now drops her again to $16k. It seems like a curious move for a mare that doesn’t appear to be in the best form at the moment. She was facing a tougher field last time, and did run better when in Rice’s care two back. She’s just tough to trust given the trajectory. I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. One of those is Mysaria (#4), who gets needed class relief. She had been racing against state-bred allowance competition through the summer before getting a break. She was mildly against a rail bias when last seen on Aug. 2, but her prior speed figures put her squarely in the mix against this field. She’s returning from a layoff for Tim Hills and has run well over this track in the past. My top pick is Book of Wisdom (#7). She finished just behind likely favorite Street Jam when they met on Nov. 9, but that race was dominated on the front end and she never had a chance to get involved after dropping so far back from the rail. She ran better in her prior start when staying on well along the inside into the lane before stalling in traffic late. I think she’s subtly improved in the latter portion of her 3-year-old season. She’s another who gets slight class relief, and she should benefit from drawing outside this time.
Fair Value:
#7 BOOK OF WISDOM, at 6-1 or greater
#4 MYSARIA, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 3
At first glance it looks pretty tough to go against expected heavy favorite Spring Magic (#7), who just towers over this field based on speed figures, class, and form. I’m just always a little skeptical of favorites that look too good, especially at these lower claiming levels. Tom Morley is not the kind of trainer to just automatically drop a horse off the claim, especially a mare like this who has seemingly been in good form. Therefore this placement at the $16k level, where she is likely to change hands again, seems like a minor red flag. It’s also worth pointing out that the Morley barn has been pretty cold lately, struggling to get to the winner’s circle over the last several months on this circuit. There are enough questions for me to look elsewhere. The best alternative that I can come up with is Starry Midnight (#2), who has twice been beaten by the favorite this fall. However, she actually ran very well just behind that foe on Oct. 12, closing in a race that lacked much pace. She was then overmatched against allowance company before dropping back down on Nov. 9. I didn’t love the ride she got that day, as her rider seemed to overcommit to the rail path. She rebounded with a better performance against slightly softer company at Finger Lakes last time, and should fit well at this $16k level. I also don’t mind her stretching back out to a mile, since she’s run some of her best races routing on dirt.
Fair Value:
#2 STARRY MIDNIGHT, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
This $35k conditioned claimer is one of the toughest races on the card because nearly every horse is coming in from a different direction. The two shippers Merit (#1) and Normandy Hero (#5) are among the toughest to read. The former makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice after beating a weaker field at Keeneland last time out. He finally got back to the winner’s circle after a series of disappointments, but I’m not convinced that this horse really wants to go a mile against this level. Those stamina concerns are even greater for Normandy Hero, who looks like a pure sprinter. He did earn a nice speed figure at Keeneland two back, but he was pretty disappointing off the claim for Jamie Ness last time. It doesn’t seem like a good sign that he’s immediately being offered for a tag, since Ness tends to protect the horses he wants to keep. Chileno (#6) is another runner that is tough to trust after he put in such a disappointing effort as the odds-on favorite at this level last time. Yet it’s impossible to ignore that he’s been claimed by Brad Cox, who has had plenty of success with these types in recent months. His better efforts will beat this field, if he can get back to them, but I’m concerned that he won’t be much of a price. O P Firecracker (#3) seems more trustworthy. He’s seen better days, but at least his recent form is consistent, and he appears to fit well at this class level after trying tougher company in some prior starts. The one concern with him is his lack of early speed, since there isn’t much pace in this race. My top pick is Wake Surf (#7), and I’m hoping Eric Cancel can deliver a more aggressive ride than he’s gotten recently. He showed earlier in this career that he has the tactical speed to stalk the pace, and he seems like a runner who fares best when he can get involved early. He’s never won on the dirt, but he’s run some nice speed figures on this surface, and all of those starts have come against tougher company than this. He’s getting significant class relief as he returns on short rest, and his lackluster recent results could ensure a fair price.
Fair Value:
#7 WAFE SURF, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
You can really make a case for just about everyone in this highly competitive allowance optional claimer. Tricky Temper (#8) probably possesses the best overall form, having won a New York-bred stakes at Saratoga this summer. However, she failed to show up in the Prioress and was very disappointing when she returned two months later in the Iroquois, fading to last as the favorite. She really isn’t getting much class relief in this spot and needs to bounce back if she’s to beat this group. Everyoneloveslinda (#2) seems a little more trustworthy at comparable odds. She’s been remarkably consistent on dirt since getting claimed by Linda Rice earlier this year. She won this condition in May, and then stepped up to race competitively against tougher company over the summer at Saratoga. She was a little disappointing last time at Parx, but that was a tough race for the level won by the razor sharp Irish Maxima. She has a versatile running style and fits well here. There is plenty of pace in this race, which could be a problem for Fancy Azteca (#3), who goes out for the red-hot Rick Dutrow barn. Between the two Dutrow runners, I prefer Proud Foot (#4), who got a needed freshening after her form tailed off this summer in Kentucky. She was running competitive races at this level last winter and spring, and will be tough if she can bound back to that form for a barn that’s sending out nothing but live runners. My top pick is I’m Buzzy (#5). The TimeformUS Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a fast pace, and this mare will appreciate that kind of setup. Her ceiling may not be as high as some others, but she’s pretty consistent and ahs run well at this level in the past. I can also make excuses for most her recent underwhelming efforts. She’s been asked to go a mile three times in a row, and that’s just slightly too far for her. She’s also been wide against rail biases in 3 of her last 4 starts, making her look worse than she is. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Charlton Baker, and might get somewhat overlooked in this wide open affair.
Fair Value:
#5 I'M BUZZY, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 6
Jamie Ness has had success on the NYRA circuit recently, but he is just 1 for 27 (4%, $0.32 ROI) with horses racing for a claiming tag at NYRA over 5 years. That statistic applies to his remaining entrant Melt With You (#1), who is in good form coming in from Parx and Laurel. He obviously fits well with this field after the major scratch of Paddington, but I didn't want to settle for a short price on him. Prove Worthy (#2) has the back class to be competitive in a spot like this, but he’s seeking to recapture his best form after taking a steep drop in class at Saratoga this summer. This deep closer often leaves himself too much ground to make up, but he was staying on well at this level last time and shouldn’t mind this stretch-out in distance. My top pick is Indianquest (#9). He may look slightly overmatched at first glance, but this gelding did show potential early in his career, winning his first couple of starts over a mile. His connections subsequently embarked on a turf experiment that just didn’t work out, and he hasn’t quite regained his best form since coming back to dirt. However, he had a right to need that return from a layoff in October when only beaten a length by former stablemate Prove Worthy. He was claimed out of that spot by low-profile trainer Emron Ibrahim and cut all the way back to 6 1/2 furlongs last time. This long-striding son of Nyquist wants no part of a sprint distance, and he was predictably outrun before staying on late. That race probably served as a means to an end, as he was gradually making up ground across the wire and galloped out with purpose ahead of the entire field. Now he stretches out to a distance that should suit him, and I’m expecting a much better effort at a square price.
Fair Value:
#9 INDIANQUEST, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 7
Speightful Lily (#8) returns from a layoff with much to prove. She started off her career in such promising fashion, winning her debut by over 14 lengths with a strong 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, she subsequently lost her first attempt against winners at a very short price. She then returned at Saratoga to beat a weaker N1X field, but did so with the help of a speed-favoring track. She stepped up to this level last time in an off the turf race, and raced awkwardly before bearing out on the turn. She now returns from another layoff looking to get back on track, and this is the toughest field she’s faced. I want others. Both fillies who finished directly behind Brown Suga Babe in the Nov. 7 race at this level make sense. Miss Lao (#1) maintained the strong form she displayed off the claim for Dennis Lalman, running even better checking in second at this level last time. She was wide throughout but was with the flow of the race. That was not the case for Maggy’s Palace (#2), who was shuffled back along the inside early, and had far too much ground to make up approaching the quarter pole. She did finish strongly, and should benefit from a strong pace this time. My top pick is Harlan’s Bond (#6), who makes her second start off a layoff. She’s had plenty of chances at this level without breaking through, but her last effort was a step in the right direction. She got a pretty good trip, and was finishing well through the lane to just miss getting up for second. I like her stretching back out to this 7-furlong distance at which she ran her career-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure in April. That form gives her a real chance here, and she seems like a candidate to step forward second off the layoff. She had previously been highly competitive against True Empress, who might be one of the favorites in this spot. Harlan’s Bond figures to be the right price, and may be landing in a spot that isn’t quite as tough as it appears at first glance.
Fair Value:
#6 HARLAN'S BOND, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
If Mama’s Gold (#7) repeats his Empire Classic effort, everyone else in this field is competing for second. This colt had proven before that he can pop up with a huge performance every now and then, and he did just that last time, beating a strong field decisively at odds of 40-1. That 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure was a new top for him, and he achieved it at today’s conditions. He does seem to be best around two turns, and he obviously loves this Aqueduct surface. The one major knock against him is that he hasn’t really put those big efforts back to back, so it is fair to be concerned about his potential for regression. Donegal Surges (#1) didn’t run nearly as well as Mama’s Gold in the Empire Classic, but he had beaten that foe two back. He seems to appreciate this distance, and drew well towards the inside. There isn’t anything particularly interesting about him at a short price, but he does seem like a legitimate contender. Yo Daddy (#3) is another that appears to fit this race well. A couple of turf experiments in stakes company didn’t work out this summer and fall, but he’s otherwise been in great form on the dirt, and proved that he can handle the 9 furlongs last time. He didn’t even get an ideal trip that day, making an early move and holding on late. He can be tricky to ride at times, but he’s talented enough to compete with these. My top pick is Summer Cause (#2), who takes another shot at this level after running deceptively well in a smaller field last time. He got involved in a three-way early duel through quick fractions, put away both pace rival, and battled on gamely late when passed by the two closers. The raw time may not be impressive, but he got a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, incorporating a significant pace upgrade. He looked like a runner that was starting to figure things out at Monmouth two back, his first start as a new gelding. He clearly relishes this distance, and he doesn’t seem like a horse that necessarily needs the lead to be effective.
Fair Value:
#2 SUMMER CAUSE, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 1 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I’m not trying to beat second time starter My Sherrona (#4), who ran quite well to be second on debut last month. She got a wide trip chasing the pace and issued a serious challenge to eventual winner Beauty Reigns in mid-stretch before getting turned away by that rival. This daughter of Not This Time appears to be an impressive physical specimen who shouldn’t mind stretching out in distance. She’s certainly bred to go longer, out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winning router racing on both dirt and turf. She’s worked twice since the debut to gain some additional fitness. I view her as a most likely winner who may not be as clearly defined in the favorite’s role as she deserves to be. I have more faith in her stretching out than I do her stablemate More Than Grace (#2), who faded to second behind the well meant debut winner Lucille Ball last time. She has pedigree to go longer, but I didn’t love the way she faded in the late stages last time, not striding out like a horse that was looking for more ground. I’d be more optimistic about Hay Evabody (#1) out of that race, since she was at least coming back at the end after getting turned away by the winner in upper stretch. The wild cards in here are the first time starters, of which Ramify (#6) has one of the best pedigrees. This daughter of Munnings is out of a dam who produced maiden Save Time, who has shown some ability. Notably her second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winning dirt route specialist Sightseek. Chad Brown just often gets overbet with these types, so I would rather side with the experience of My Sherrona.
Fair Value:
#4 MY SHERRONA, at 7-5 or greater
RACE 3
Stormin Sammy (#3) could take money after finishing second against maiden special weight company at Finger Lakes. Those races are obviously softer than the same condition at NYRA, so this isn’t as much of a drop in class as it would be for those competing on this circuit. He did earn a field-best 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last performance, but he was fading late after showing speed, which has been a pattern in all three starts so far. I’m a little concerned about him getting the 7 furlongs, but his early zip makes him dangerous. The wild card in the field is Run of the House (#5), who is getting the most class relief of anyone in this field after facing far tougher rivals in that Saratoga maiden race on debut. While those horses were clearly a lot better than these, I still wish he had shown a little more in that race. He briefly chased the pace but was done around the far turn and just eased late. He returns as a new gelding in a better spot, but it’s unclear if he has much ability. My top pick is Bernie Goes Boom (#6), who just seems to be heading in the right direction now. His debut was pretty uninspiring as he lacked speed throughout, and a subsequent turf experiment was similarly dull. Yet he did take a small step forward when he attempted this level getting back on dirt last time. He was never a threat to win, but he was staying on late to catch today’s rival Papa’s Nico Boy for fourth before galloping out best of all. He looks like a candidate to really appreciate this stretch-out to 7 furlongs, and is generally progressing for connections that typically get youngsters to improve over time. He should be a fair price, and I believe he’s among the more likely winners in this field.
Fair Value:
#6 BERNIE GOES BOOM, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
The horse to beat in this Garland of Roses is Mystic Pleasure (#7), who has been in solid form since turning back to sprint distances in her last couple of starts. This Kentucky invader has really blossomed late in her 4-year-old season, beating a solid allowance field with a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure two back. She didn’t quite match that figure last time when rival Upper Case turned the tables on her at Churchill, but she still held on well for second after chasing a fast pace. She drew well and looks dangerous. I’m not quite sure what to do with Ellen Jay (#6), who figures to take money going out for the Brad Cox barn. This filly has significantly improved on turf lately, reeling off 3 consecutive victories on that surface. However, her first couple of dirt starts are better than the results suggest. She ran especially well on debut after a troubled beginning. I’m just not inclined to take horses like this who will get bet off grass form. Ain’t Broke (#2)was cross-entered in the Go For Wand on Saturday, but Linda Rice opts for this spot instead. She is coming off a significant layoff, so this might just be a starting point. However, the turnback in distance could suit a mare who has having trouble finishing off her races when last seen. She still ran well in the Distaff despite getting caught late, and she then got a nightmare trip in the Ruffian, where she reportedly bled. She’s been given ample time to recover, and certainly has the talent to compete in a spot like this if some pace develops. My top pick is Kant Hurry Love (#8). She obviously belongs with these based on her last few efforts. She just missed to Hot Fudge in this race last year and has hit the board in each start since then, culminating in that Dancin Renee score over the talented NY-breds Leeloo and Sterling Silver. That performance is surrounded by layoffs, as she’s only made that one start since early March, but she appears to be working well for the return and clearly fits with this field. She drew a perfect outside post position for a runner with speed, and may get somewhat overlooked coming off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#8 KANT HURRY LOVE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
Prince Valiant (#2) looks like the kind of first time starter that will take money for Todd Pletcher. He has some quick workouts showing for the debut, and that Nov. 9 gate drill matches Prancing Spirit, who won on debut here two weeks ago. This son of King for a Day doesn’t have much pedigree, and Pletcher does seem to get overbet with these types. I prefer horses with experience. Joker On Fire (#1) makes some sense turning back in distance after he just couldn’t get the mile last time. He had participated in a pretty tough maiden special weight event in his start prior to that, and might be finding a softer field here. Vekinda (#3) will also take money after getting edged out by the rail runner on debut. However, he was meant for turf that day, and he ran pretty well getting on turf last time. I wonder if he will have further upside on this surface. Free Dance (#8) might be a better option at a bigger price. He has steadily improved over his three starts, putting forth his best performance last time when contesting the pace before just failing to hang on for second. He drew a good outside post position here and may get somewhat overlooked. My top pick is Whiskey Frens (#7), who was entered for a tag last week but scratched out of that spot to contest this maiden special weight instead. This colt lost all chance on debut when breaking slowly and throwing his head up at the start, not getting into his full stride until the rest of the field had run away from him. He actually did well to regain contact with the pack, and was only beaten just over 6 lengths for second while earning a respectable speed figure. He’s likely to be more professional this time, and has a pedigree to be a nice runner. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rick Dutrow barn has been winning at over 50% during this current meet.
Fair Value:
#7 WHISKEY FRENS, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 11 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 10 - 2 - 8 - 1A
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 9: 9 - 11 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 5 - 4 - 11 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
The scratch of Trinity River turns this into a wide open affair. Tonal Silence (#1) now figures to inherit the favorite's role as he drops in class. He faced much better maiden special weight rivals on debut where she showed good speed before fading late. I like that he has that 7-furlong attempt under his belt as he now takes another try at that distance. However, he's picking up Irad Ortiz and is going to be a pretty short price breaking from this difficult inside post. I also worry that he has a bit more of a turf pedigree on the dam's side, so I wonder if his future truly lies on this surface. Solar Glare (#5) achieved an improved result last time against a weaker field at Penn National, but he was probably best that day after making a wide move on the clubhouse turn. I like the slight cutback for him, and I suspect he's better than his recent speed figures suggest. My top pick is Gunman Jayvo (#2). This horse took some serious money on debut for a Randi Persaud first time starter. Perhaps some of that is due to his pedigree, being a New York-bred son of Gun Runner. It’s obviously not a great sign that he only sold for $4,000 at auction given those bloodlines, but he did show some hints of talent on debut. He broke slowly and was outrun early before rallying mildly late to pass some tired rivals. He’s now back at the same level and seems likely to move forward with that experience under his belt, since Persaud rarely has his runners ready to do much on debut. He would need the pace to come apart a bit to upset the favorite, but the stretch-out to 7 furlongs with any kind of pace setup should help.
Fair Value:
#2 GUNMAN JAYVO, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 5
Christophe Clement sends out two of the top contenders in this state-bred allowance, led by the returning Al’s Ruby (#5). This filly was pretty impressive drawing away to win her debut by 4 lengths back in April. She didn’t appear to be traveling that well as she lost some ground on the turn, but she really finished powerfully once she straightened up in the lane that day. She’s been off since then, so something clearly went awry out of that victory. She’s been working well for this return to the races, but Christophe Clement is just 4 for 23 (17%, $1.14 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs in dirt sprints over 5 years. Peony (#7) will likely be a better price as she switches back to dirt following a turf experiment last time. That was her return from a layoff and she’s likely to benefit from getting that race under her belt. She does have some turf pedigree, but she already ran quite well on dirt earlier this year. She actually won the other division of Al’s Ruby’s maiden race on April 6, and was geared down in doing so. I expect a better effort here. My top pick is another 3-year-old returning from a layoff. P Mutter Pickle (#11) was impressive winning her debut as a 2-year-old last year, albeit while taking advantage of a rail bias. However, she confirmed her quality in her second start when contesting the pace and battling on for second behind stakes-placed Bernietakescharge. She has since missed most of her 3-year-old season, and came back in a very tough spot this summer at Saratoga in the Bouwerie. She drew a tough inside post position and basically had little chance once she failed to get forward. Now she’s returning from another layoff in a softer spot, and she also drew much better in this outside post. I don’t think she necessarily needs the lead to be effective, and Phil Antonacci can have a horse ready to fire fresh.
Fair Value:
#11 P MUTTER PICKLE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 7
Likely favorite Keewaydin (#5) participated in one of the strongest 2-year-old maiden races of the summer at Saratoga when just missing in a three-horse photo finish first time out. That form was flattered when Tip Top Thomas returned to finish second in the G1 Champagne and fourth-place Sovereignty won the G3 Street Sense. He found a much softer field when he won his next start at 1-5 odds. While the race came up fast, the horse who challenged him late came back to regress significantly in his next start. Keewaydin is bred to get a mile, but this distance might be a stretch. Chad Brown is 8 for 31 (26%, $1.03 ROI) with last-out maiden winners stretching out for the first time on dirt over 5 years. I’m actually more interested in Chad Brown’s other horse Aviator Gui (#2). He was intended for turf when he broke his maiden two back, but stayed in on dirt and unleashed a strong stretch rally to victory. That’s proven to be a solid race, as runner-up Cyclone State has returned to win his next couple of starts. Chad Brown finally got him on turf last time, but it didn’t work out, as a very wide trip played a role in the result. He’s bred for dirt, being out of a half-sister to Gun Runner, and distance shouldn’t be an issue. My top pick is Studlydoright (#4). It was starting to look like he might be a precocious flash in the pan as he disappointed a few times following that early season victory in the Tremont. However, he ran better it appears in the G1 Hopeful, where he was shut off in mid-stretch just as he was gathering momentum. He then got a very wide trip in the Laurel Futurity, so there were excuses for his lack of progression. He finally got back on track last time in the Nashua, racing with blinkers on. It shouldn’t be some great surprise that he improved with added distance, since he’s a robust son of Nyquist with a long stride. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a legitimate contender here, and he might not get the respect he deserves for lower profile connections.
Fair Value:
#4 STUDLYDORIGHT, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Muhimma (#1) figures to be a very short price as she stretches out and steps up against stakes company for the first time. She couldn’t have been much more impressive in her first couple of starts at Churchill, traveling strongly throughout before drawing clear with authority. She’s a mature-looking daughter of Munnings whose development seems a step ahead of her peers at this stage. However, it remains to be seen if that advantage she possesses will transfer to this 9-furlong distance. Munnings is a highly versatile sire, but not exactly a strong source of stamina. Her dam did win going long, but was a turf horse. Brad Cox, who has strong stats in a variety of categories, is just 4 for 28 (14%, $0.98 ROI) with horses trying a route for the first time in dirt graded stakes over 5 years. She’s the most likely winner, but I’m not keen to accept a short price on a horse trying something new for the first time. Beauty Reigns (#8) is an alternative some might consider after she gamely won her debut last month. However, it’s asking a lot for this filly to stretching all the way out to 9 furlongs in just the second start of her career. Ballerina d’Oro (#10) is perhaps a little more interesting given her foundation of two-turn races, even if they’re all on turf. She had worked well on dirt early in her career, and is bred to handle this surface. My top pick is Liam in the Dust (#2), who was easily beaten by the favorite last time. Yet I thought this filly showed some likeable qualities in defeat, as she got outrun down the backstretch after breaking well and never gave up, rallying into a clear second through the stretch. Some may question her ability to get this distance after she failed her only two turn test in the Alcibiades, but that result isn’t a true indicator of her ability. She was significantly steadied on the far turn before getting eased late. She’s bred to go longer, and moves like a horse who should relish added ground. She’s working well for this start, and I’m expecting a career-best performance.
Fair Value:
#2 LIAM IN THE DUST, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
This Cigar Mile drew an interesting field of 11 but it’s pretty easy to narrow the list of contenders down to the five shortest prices on the morning line. I tentatively made Mullikin (#5) the slight choice on the line, but any of four horses could reasonably go favored here. Mullikin returned for his 4-year-old campaign as a new horse, reeling off four consecutive victories while positioning himself as one of the top sprinters in the country. He perhaps wasn’t beating the strongest Grade 1 field in the Forego, but he won that race convincingly with a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was subsequently made the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where he could only manage a third-place finish. Yet he was hardly disgraced in defeat, closing well after getting outrun early. He acts like a horse who should handle this stretch-out to a mile, and Rodolphe Brisset is 16 for 63 (25%, $2.34 ROI) with first time routers on dirt over 5 years. Post Time (#11)also exits the Breeders’ Cup, coming off a strong second-place finish in the Dirt Mile. He found himself in last early and made an admirable rally from far off the pace, passing all but a winner who delivered the best performance of his career. It’s not the first time Post Time has run well against top level competition, having placed in the Met Mile and Whitney earlier this year. He won the Carter over this track this spring, and appears to have improved since then. He should be rolling late if pace develops. The two main players who skipped the Breeders’ Cup are both 3-year-olds. Book’em Danno (#1) opted to try softer company in the Grade 3 Perryville at Keeneland and lost as a heavy favorite. However, he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, stuck in traffic along the inside and not finding a clear path until it was too late. I’m just still slightly bothered by the fact that he’s run slightly worse than expectations in three consecutive starts. Locked (#7) could be a popular option as he steps back up into stakes company after missing much of his 3-year-old campaign. He obviously once had the talent to compete at this level, and his return from the layoff was certainly encouraging. It’s just asking a lot of this horse to face a field like this off one return race. My top pick is Senor Buscador (#9), last year’s runner-up in this race. Though he was beaten by 4 lengths, he arguably ran the best race in defeat, attempting to make a wide rally from the back of the pack over a course that was tilted towards inside speed. He’s coming into this year’s Cigar Mile off a similar pattern, having competed in the same series of races leading into this. His form had initially been disappointing when he returned from a layoff this summer, but he got back on track last time in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, arguably running better in that race than he had the prior year. The pace was in his favor, but he had to navigate some traffic trying to close inside as the race came apart. He will appreciate this cutback to one mile, and Joel Rosario appears to be a good fit for him. He also should be the best price among the main players.
Fair Value:
#9 SENOR BUSCADOR, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 10
I’m not thrilled with a couple of the short prices in this first-level allowance finale. Reynolds Channel (#7) could go favored as he returns from a brief freshening, but he needs to get back on track after two off the board finishes. It’s easy to excuse his fifth-place result in the H. Allen Jerkens, where he actually ran pretty well against a tough field. However, more was expected of him when he dropped to this level last time at a distance that should have been to his liking. He ranged up on the far turn like he was going to make an impact and just flattened out through the lane. He missed some workouts in October after that, but has gotten back on a consistent pattern recently, so perhaps a better effort is forthcoming. I’m even more skeptical of Quick to Accuse (#8), who ran well when initially switched into the Brad Cox barn early this year. However, he hasn’t run quite as well since moving up to face open company at this level. I think this is an even tougher spot than last time, and he may get overbet for a popular barn. Commuted (#4) is a little easier to endorse after running so well in his first start for Rob Falcone last time following an auction purchase. The only problem is that he was 11-1 that day, and now he’s going to vie for favoritism after his form is exposed. I think there are a couple of bigger prices to consider. The one with more to prove is Iridescent (#11), who is confidently placed at this level in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who isn’t known for getting overlay ambitious with her acquisitions. He’s never gone this far before, but he’s run some of his best races going 7 furlongs, and gets Lasix for the first time as he moves into the Rice barn. I’m expecting him to outrun his odds. My top pick is Air of Defiance (#5), who makes his second start off a layoff. This colt had shown real talent last year in the Brad Cox barn, chasing home champion Fierceness on debut before easily breaking his maiden at Keeneland. Something obviously went badly awry with him to miss nearly a year, and it’s probably not a great sign that he was given to Chad Summers for his return to action this season. Yet I do think he ran better than the result suggests in that comeback race, as he was chasing an extremely fast pace against a very strong field for the level. That race came up fast, and horses have run back to actually flatter that form. He’s bred to get this one-mile distance, and I’m expecting him to take a step forward, especially if he gets a more patient ride here.
Fair Value:
#5 AIR OF DEFIANCE, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 3: 1/1A - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 7 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
The expected heavy favorite El Grande O (#5) returned to action following a 236-day layoff in late October. He had gone to the sidelines in the best form of his career, hitting the board in a series of Derby preps, including the Withers and Gotham. Despite missing all of that time, he came back from the layoff looking better than ever last time. Turning back to a sprint distance, he comfortably rated off the pace before ranging up inside at the quarter pole. He had to angle off the inside to challenge leader Toxic Grey in deep stretch and forged past that rival, earning a career-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number was validated when Toxic Grey returned to win, earning a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Those looking to take a shot against the favorite may consider Victory Way (#4), who returns from a lengthy layoff, having not raced since August of 2023. He had trouble at the start of that last race when attempting two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones, and was basically eased late. He had run well off a much shorter freshening prior to that when earning a career-best 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for an allowance victory, but that was going a mile. Now he turns back to 6 1/2 furlongs, and I wonder if this is just a stepping stone to a longer target. My top pick is Reddington (#6). This gelding improved significantly this summer when turned back in distance to one-turn races. He put in a performance that was much stronger than the result suggested on June 27, where he was steadied early and got a wide trip against a minor rail bias. He then delivered going 7 furlongs against starter allowance company at Saratoga before stepping up to defeat a much tougher field at the N1X allowance level in September. The fact that he got dismissed at 36-1 that day speaks to the quality of horses that finished behind him. Given that strong form, some might be disappointed in his last effort. However, 6 furlongs is probably a tad short for him, and he also looked uncomfortable racing inside of horses on the turn. He seemed to get discouraged mid-race, but was finishing well across the wire and galloped out strongly. Now he’s drawn in a much more favorable outside post, and he should get the right kind of stalking trip going a half-furlong farther.
Fair Value:
#6 REDDINGTON, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
I would typically be skeptical of a horse like Boss Tweed (#1), who has been a fairly fainthearted frontrunner and seems like a stretch at this 7-furlong distance. However, it’s impossible to ignore the claim by Brad Cox, who has had inordinate success with this move since expanding his claiming operation over the past year. Cox is 9 for 17 (53%, $2.74 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past year. This colt had tailed off for his prior connections, but he’s now moving into a high-percentage barn that apparently isn’t afraid to drop him in class significantly. I’m definitely afraid of this horse, but I don’t really want to bet him at a short price. I just also have questions about others who could take money in this spot. Castle Island (#4) has prior speed figures that would crush this field, but he’s excelled over two-turn route distances. He’s also coming off a layoff for this turnback to a sprint while dropping in for a tag that seems lower than what he should be worth. All of that seems like a bad sign for connections that don’t run on this circuit very much. Abadin (#6) looks more appealing at first glance, facing slightly tougher company in his last couple of starts at Churchill Downs. However, the speed figures for those races look slight inflated based on the runbacks, and it’s hard to envision him working out the right trip since he’s likely to find himself chasing Boss Tweed and he isn’t one that readily passes rivals. Lotsa Trouble (#5) is slightly more interesting as he turns back to a sprint. The 9 furlongs was just too for much for him to handle last time, but I was still disappointed that he threw in the towel so early. It’s unclear if he’s come back as the same horse following a layoff, but this is a better spot. My top pick is Good Reunion (#8). He had a right to need that return at this level last time, where he got ridden a bit too aggressively to chase the pace before fading. He also found himself along the inside in a race that featured an outside flow. Previously his style had been to sit off the pace and launch one run, and he figures to return to those tactics here in a race that features more early speed. He may need to improve slightly on his best to beat this field, but there are many question marks in here and he seems like a good candidate to move forward second off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#8 GOOD REUNION, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
Laird of Magnolia (#2) was never a serious factor in his debut on this surface, but he nevertheless earned a respectable speed figure chasing home three quite talented rivals. He subsequently switched to turf, a surface that he does have some pedigree to handle. He put in a decent effort two back with a good trip, and then was a little disappointing last time, though after going wide and encountering minor traffic. He now drops in class to an appropriate level and gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. He appears to be a bit one-paced, but is nevertheless a logical contender at this level. Brave Bear (#7) already tried this level last time when he got a much more aggressive ride than he had on debut stretching out to this one-mile distance. He paid the price late, fading after contesting that honest pace. However, he should have gained some fitness from that effort and could fare better here. I just wonder if he will ultimately prove best on turf given his dam's side pedigree for that surface. My top pick is second time starter Arcadian (#1). This well-bred son of Maclean’s Music somehow only sold for $22k at his last auction despite being out of a multiple stakes-winning dam, who herself is out of Grade 1 Go For Wand winner Aldiza. He didn’t show much of that family’s talent on debut when breaking very slowly and never making a serious impact. However, he had a right to need that experience, and was staying on late like a horse that would appreciate some added ground. He now makes his second start while racing as a new gelding. It’s a little interesting that John Velazquez takes this mount for Greg Sacco, and it’s not as if he’s encountering a particularly tough field for the level.
Fair Value:
#1 ARCADIAN, at 3-1 or greater
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