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Featured Race:
Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 01 10 PM (Jan 23)
Property Menu
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 1/1A - 5 - 2
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 9 - 11
(Fair Value: These are the minimum odds at which I could reasonably bet. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
The two expected favorites in this first-level allowance for New York-breds are both dropping out of stakes events. Kenny Be (#2) might have a tactical advantage over his main rival since he possesses plenty of early speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be alone on the lead in a scenario favoring the frontrunner. He broke his maiden impressively in gate-to-wire fashion but then was forced to rate when he stepped up against winners in the Notebook. He was never beating the imposing filly Shoot It True, but he still stayed on gamely to secure second. He figures to get an aggressive from his inside draw, and appears to be the one to beat. Soontobeking (#4) couldn’t catch Kenny Be for second when they met in the Notebook two back, perhaps compromised by a lack of pace in that spot. He got a much more favorable pace setup when he stretched out in the Great White Way division of the New York Stallion Series last time. However, the trip failed to work out for him. He dropped far back, as he usually does, and had built up a ton of momentum coming past the quarter pole. However, Javier Castellano made a tactical error by angling inside for the stretch drive, and the horse ran right into the backs of the tiring frontrunners. Soontobeking arguably might have won that lucrative stakes if not for that trouble. Now he drops in class and gets Lasix, but his lack of early speed could be more of a liability against this group. George Weaver’s other runner Super Swift (#6) is mildly interesting getting back to dirt here. He won his debut on this surface, but that was a sloppy track in a race rained off the turf, so he’s never really been intended for dirt. He drew well outside and should appreciate turning back, but he does have some things to prove. My top pick is Fireballin (#3). This well-bred son of rising New York sire Honest Mischief hails from the female family of stakes winner Seeking the Ante. His dam’s only other foal to race is the multiple stakes winner Fingal’s Cave, so he’s bred to turn into a nice runner. This colt got dismissed at 7-1 on debut here last month but delivered a nice effort that was even better than the three-quarter length margin of victory suggests. He broke slowly but smoothly advanced along the inside to race into contention by the time the field hit the far turn. He traveled strongly in behind the leaders and produced a nice kick when wheeled outside in the stretch. I expect him to be more forwardly placed here provided a clean start, and that should lead to an improved performance.
Fair Value:
#3 FIREBALLIN, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 4
Quick Hammer (#3) makes plenty of sense in this spot after twice running well since being transferred into the Wayne Potts barn. However, he was a voided claim in October and then missed nearly 3 months of action before returning earlier this month. He set the pace before settling for second in a similar race at this level. Now he’s coming back in just 10 days so perhaps he can move forward. He just has to deal with some other speed drawn to his outside. I prefer the overall form of main rival Jake Rocks (#1), who had put together a string of solid efforts after getting claimed by Rob Atras this summer. He got the job done against a deceptively strong field at Parx two back with a gritty effort. His last race might look like a regression on paper, but you just have to draw a line through that performance. He got totally steadied out of contention while also veering extremely wide to avoid an injured rival. He now makes his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin, who has pretty good statistics in this situation. My top pick is Can’t Beat Me (#2), who comes back to NYRA from Finger Lakes. While I’m typically skeptical of runners coming in from that circuit, this horse has achieved 3 of his 4 career victories at Aqueduct. He even won in his first start of last winter at Aqueduct after concluding his Finger Lakes campaign, winning at 27-1 at a slightly higher level than this. His form obviously tailed off thereafter, but he hasn’t run as poorly as it might look in his last two starts. He had a right to need his start two back off a layoff, and last time he didn’t get the best ride when attempting to close through traffic. He gets reunited with Romero Maragh here, and seems to fit well at this level.
Fair Value:
#2 CAN'T BEAT ME, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 6
I have trouble trusting likely favorite Gallant Greta (#4). This filly has only tried dirt once in her career and she ran just fine while not doing much to justify an expected short price here. She did stay on for fourth, but got a very good trip after breaking a bit slowly, spending most of her trip on the rail over a track that was kind to inside runners. She did subsequently improved on the turf, but this isn’t a turf race. She was also entered on the dirt in October, and was a late scratch just prior to the start by the regulatory vet, getting declared unsound. She comes in with a spotty worktab and looks vulnerable at a short price. One key feature of this race is the lack of early speed signed on, and that should make Eastern Star (#5) dangerous. She’s another one who has had plenty of chances, and I’ve never been her biggest fan before. However, she did keep some decent company at this level prior to the layoff, and she figures to fall into a great trip here. She obviously possesses the most early speed of anyone in this field, and she might get to back down the pace a bit going this 7-furlong distance, which she has handled well in the past. David Donk doesn’t have a reputation for doing well off layoffs, but he is actually 7 for 42 (17%, $3.68 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in sprints over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#5 EASTERN STAR, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 7
Princess Becca (#6) is the obvious horse to beat in this first-level allowance for New York-breds as she steps up out of a series of starter allowance races. She’s been earning speed figures that are a little faster than her rivals, but I do have some concerns about her getting the one-mile distance. She does her best running towards the front end, and there is other speed in this race to keep her honest up front. While she has twice finished second at this distance, she’s not the strongest finisher, and I wonder if she’ll be fully cranked while returning from a 3-month layoff. I don’t really want other forward types. Chasing Daylight (#8) is probably the second most talented among those, but she just rarely wins anymore, settling for second or third in 6 of her last 8 starts. I want runners who should be closing from off the pace. Baroness Bourbon (#2) is one such option after improving first off the claim for Wayne Potts last time. She got a pretty good trip, saving ground on the turn before angling out to close in the stretch. She stayed on decently for fourth while never a serious threat. She lacks the speed figures of some others in here, but is in good form right now. My top pick is Brooklyn Dantz (#7), who actually outclosed Baroness Bourbon when running past that rival to get up for third at this level last time. She was a massive price that day, but it’s not as if that performance came out of nowhere. She has steadily been improving over her last four starts, and that last performance is even better than it looks when you watch the whole race. She was tough to handle on the far turn, and it briefly appeared as if Chris Elliott might be pulling her up as she was trying to get out around the bend. She eventually straightened up and put in a strong finish. If she can run a more completely race here with a proper pace setup, she should outrun her odds again.
Fair Value:
#7 BROOKLYN DANTZ, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
This is the DRF Race of the Day, which means you can access free Formulator and TimeformUS PPs here. For thoughts on each runner in the field, you can also watch Mike Beer and I analyze this race. Victory Way (#9) is probably the horse to beat as he makes his second start off an extended layoff. He chased home the classy El Grande O going 6 1/2 furlongs last time, but he had no trouble handling a mile when he stretched out as a 3-year-old in 2023, beating future stakes winner runner Film Star. Obviously, a lot of time has passed since then, but he got in that prep last time and will be tough for this field to handle with any step forward. For a race that attracted such a large field, there really isn’t much speed signed on. Runnin’ Ray (#11) could go forward from his outside post, but he’s not exactly a confirmed frontrunner. He only beat $40k claimers last time, but it was a solid field for the level, and that form was flattered when Giroovin came back to win his next start impressively. Runnin’ Ray has been competitive at this level in the past, and appears to be back in form now as a 9-year-old. General Banker (#2) might have benefited from a little more pace than he’ll get, but he is a pretty versatile runner who can race closer to the pace when necessary. That was the case two back when he arguably go too aggressive of a ride, making a premature move into a fast pace that ultimately collapsed. He didn’t run as well last time, but he was glued to the rail in the slop. This is a better spot for him. His ceiling isn’t quite as high as some others in here, but he should be a fair price. My top pick is Reddington (#1), who is another that should be forwardly placed from his inside post. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a horse who at times has looked reluctant to race inside of horses. That was the case two back when he got discouraged racing inside around the far turn before staying on late. He ran better last time with a wide trip, but just couldn’t handle the 6 1/2 furlong distance. He had been in great form prior to that, and I like him stretching back out to a mile where he’s had success in the past. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he’s quick enough to make the lead here, and I think he’ll prove tough to catch if he gets an aggressive ride from Sahin Civaci.
Fair Value:
#1 REDDINGTON, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 3: 7 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 11 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 10 - 6 - 5 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the minimum odds at which I could reasonably bet. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
There are few satisfying options in this conditioned claiming event to open the card. Iridescent (#6) could go favored, as is often the case since this horse is quite popular with the bettors. I wish she had run a little better first off the claim for Linda Rice last time, but that was a pretty ambitious spot. Now he’s dropping back down into the claiming ranks an drew well outside. He’s probably the horse to beat, but he isn’t the most appealing at a short price. Former Rice runner Augustine Red (#3) has the back class to beat a group like this, but his tendency to lug in has been an issue throughout his career and seemed to plague him again last time. He makes his first start off the claim for new connections here, but is tough to trust in this situation. My top pick is Vinsanity (#4). This gelding ran deceptively well in his first start for this barn in September, and then delivered a victory when he got back on dirt in October. Since then he’s been placed in some pretty ambitious spots. He obviously had no chance as a 160-1 shot in the Cigar Mile, and he was even facing a tougher group at the starter allowance level last time. He actually ran pretty well in that spot, contesting a fast pace and hanging in until the late stages. I don’t mind him turning back in distance here for a dangerous barn.
Fair Value:
#4 VINSANITY, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 4
D Day Sky (#2) would be a handful for this field if able to get back to any of his efforts immediately following the acquisition and transfer to Michelle Giangiulio last year. However, he tailed off into the fall, and was claimed out of a dull effort at this level in November. He did take a step back in the right direction off the claim for Wayne Potts last time, earning a solid 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which makes him the horse to beat here. However, he’s still not the most trustworthy sort given his recent inconsistency. The problem is that it’s hard to place too much faith in anyone in this field. Final Denile (#6) is another with plenty of back class, but his form had totally fallen apart for Christophe Clement prior to getting claimed by Horacio De Paz last time. Perhaps he’ll improve for the new barn, but this distance had always been a stretch for him in the past. Golden Purchase (#7) exits a good effort last time, but he’s another who lacks consistency, and it’s hard to endorse a horse who is just 1 for 44 lifetime. My top pick is new face Secret Treasure (#5), who ships in from Presque Isle and Laurel. He’s run slower than some others in this field recently, but he did earn some competitive speed figures when still contesting the maiden ranks over the summer. Since stepping up to face winners, he’s hit the board at or around this level on a few occasions. Most of those efforts came over synthetic, but he handled dirt without issue when he switched back to this surface last time at Laurel. The race got a slow speed figure, but he was compromised by an extremely slow pace, and actually closed well to just miss. He can sit a bit closer than that, and gets an intriguing rider upgrade to Dylan Davis for the dangerous Mike Trombetta barn.
Fair Value:
#5 SECRET TREASURE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 6
It seems pretty obvious that Frizzante (#1) will win this race if he runs as well as he did in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice last out. Stretching out to this 9-furlong distance, he worked out a good stalking trip but seemed like he had little chance to catch breakaway leader Principe d’Oro at the head of the stretch. Yet he found another gear late to nearly nail that rival on the wire. His 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in this field, and his speed figures have generally been trending in a positive direction. He drew well towards the inside once again, and will be tough to handle if he holds that form. The only problem is that now he’s full exposed and thus going to be a short price. Traffic Master (#7) was similarly impressive in his most recent start at Laurel. He got a pretty good trip until the far turn, where he had to wait for room in behind a wall of horses. He found a seam inside in the lane and burst through to an impressive victory. He clearly handles added distance, and appears to be shipping to this circuit in top form. Melt With You (#5) was formerly in the Jamie Ness barn, registering an impressive last-to-first victory for that stable in December. He wasn’t successful in his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts last time, but he got an impossible wide trip. He had a right to bounce back here, but he still has to prove his quality at this level after beating weaker in prior starts. My top pick is Scat Tu Tap (#2), who is also stepping up out of cheaper races. He spent much of his career on turf with limited success, but he switched back over to dirt two back after getting claimed by Antonio Arriaga. He ran deceptively well in that 6 1/2-furlong sprint going a distance that is far too short for him. He stretched out to a mile last time against a decent field for that claiming condition, and put in a relentless finish to mow those rivals down. He now has to stretch all the way out to 9 furlongs, but he’s bred to go this far and acts like a horse that wants every bit of added ground he can get on this surface. I think he still has upside in this new barn, and he figures to be a square price even coming off that recent victory.
Fair Value:
#2 SCAT TU TAP, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
Bells Beach (#2) may vie for favoritism as she goes out for the popular Chad Brown barn. She ran pretty well to break her maiden going this distance in her second career start at Churchill Downs earlier last year before going to the sidelines following a disappointing effort in the Wilton. She was bet down to a short price in her return last time, but proved no match for stablemate Weigh the Risks and I didn’t love the way she finished after getting a good trip. Now she’s drawn inside while facing a much more competitive field at a short price. I am a little more afraid of the returning Prides Crossing (#5), who was pretty impressive on debut at Churchill back in May. She wasn’t beating the strongest field that day, but she did score in convincing fashion. This $1.3 million yearling purchase has some turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but the second dam was a Frizette winner, and this filly clearly handled dirt on debut. She makes her first start off a trainer switch to William Walden, who does well with this move. She appears to be working well, going slightly better than older allowance type Clear the Air in her most recent drill at Turfway. Another lightly raced filly who may attract some support is Points Is Points (#4), who was no factor when she tried this level on Dec. 27. Yet that was a day that featured an extreme rail bias, and Points Is Points was never on the inside. She’s better than that, but I still have some questions about her overall ability after she beat a field of suspect quality on debut. I’m most interested in a couple of fillies who are actually turning back in distance after running well at this level on Dec. 6. Fade to Grey (#11) might find this one-turn mile trip to be a bit short for her, having run the two best races of her career at 9 furlongs. She was arguably best last time when losing a narrow decision after going wide on the turns and making a premature move to take over. I’m a little concerned she will get outrun early here, but there is pace in the race and the outside post position should suit her. My top pick is Brown Suga Babe (#7), who had to settle for third behind Fade to Grey last time. She didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day, rated into a stalking position early before getting shuffled back in traffic past the half-mile pole. She got pushed wider on the far turn, and was finishing gamely once she wheeled out into the clear for the stretch drive. She’s now tried the 9 furlongs twice, and it’s clear to me that she’s better at this one-turn mile distance. Jamie Ness does well with his NYRA starters at the allowance level, and this filly appears to be in the best form of her career right now.
Fair Value:
#7 BROWN SUGA BABE, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1A - 5
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 2B - 1
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 1A - 8 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the minimum odds at which I could reasonably bet. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This $20k maiden claimer actually drew a pretty intriguing, well-matched group of 3-year-olds. None are going to develop into stars, but a few do shape with greater potential than you might typically find at this level. The possible favorite is Arcadian (#2), who most recently finished third against tougher auction-restricted maidens last time, clearly improving with the stretch-out to a mile. This horse was running on well late despite getting a pretty tentative ride through the middle of the race. Now he adds Lasix and drops to a realistic level. My only concern is that he looks like the type that may want even farther than this down the line. Broderick (#8) debuted in the same race as that rival over a sprint distance in October, and actually performed better. He didn’t achieve a better finish when he stretched out at the same level last time, but he did earn a respectable speed figure chasing home some superior rivals. The class relief may be even more significant for him, and he drew well outside. I just havenyr to take one more shot with Daytona Moonshine (#4), who drops in class after getting purchased at auction by Jamie Ness for just $17k, making this an appropriate level. This gelding has run in spots in both career starts. He seemed totally disengaged in his turf debut before finally getting asked for run in the last furlong, producing an unexpected finish, running his last sixteenth in 5.64 seconds. He ran a similar race on dirt last time, but actually broke much better. He raced with the leaders for a few strides before plummeting through the pack. He looked hopelessly beaten at the quarter pole, but responded once Manny Franco vigorously asked him, flying past rivals across the wire. Clearly there’s more ability here than he’s been showing, and perhaps Ness can get him to stay more engaged throughout the race at this lower level.
Fair Value:
#4 DAYTONA MOONSHINE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 3
Shesalittle Edgy (#1A) has to be considered the horse to beat in her current form. She had appeared to tail off for Linda Rice last year, but she has found new life since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. She was sent off at 11-1 for a reason when she contested that starter allowance event in October, but she produced her best effort in quite some time to beat that field by over 4 lengths. She then ran nearly as well against an optional claiming field last time, contesting a 3-way duel for the lead before putting away her pace foes to just miss in a battle to the wire. If she runs as well here, she’s going to be a handful, and it’s probably fair to regard this as a drop in class. I’m just not quite convinced that she will necessarily maintain this form, and now she’s going to be a short price again. There is other speed in here, so I could see this pace heating up. Killy Start (#2) should sit a good trip from mid-pack. She was no match for the likely favorite when they met in October, but she returned with an improved effort against allowance foes last time. That race was dominated towards the front by the improving Patricia Ann, and this mare stayed on well to secure second while well ahead of the rest. She’s the logical alternative. I just want to get a little more creative with a horse who figures to get overlooked. My Girl Jal (#3) will need the favorite to regress if she’s to be successful here, but that seems like a possibility. This longshot’s recent form looks pretty dismal, but she has been overmatched in both starts since returning from a layoff. She had no real chance to close into a slow pace off the layoff two back, and then last time she was wide against an extreme rail bias in a speed-dominated race. The excuses are there, and now she’s dropping into a more realistic spot. She has generally run well when she’s gotten class relief in the past, and now gets a minor rider upgrade to Christopher Elliott. She will need pace to develop, but she’s better than she looks at first glance and will be the right price.
Fair Value:
#3 MY GIRL JAL, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 8
I’m generally not inclined to take short prices on horses like Al’s Ruby (#3). She’s moving up in class off two visually impressive wins, and these types of runners are often underlays as bettors tend to overestimate their potential upside. Al’s Ruby does have some obstacles to overcome here, as she has gotten away with slow paces in both prior victories before spurting away late. I do like the way she finishes off her races, appearing to gain strength as she approaches the wire. I’m just concerned that she might get outrun early from an inside post position with so much other speed to her outside. One of her main rivals My Magic Wand (#11) has already proven that she can deal with a fast pace, having overcome some very swift fractions when she won her N1X condition last time. She did get pretty tired in the late stages, and only had to forge past the fainthearted Geopolitics in the late stages, but the slight turnback to 6 furlongs does figure to suit her. I’m just concerned she could get burned up in an early duel. I’m most interested in the horses who chased home the talented Speightful Lily in a fast race for the level on Dec. 12. The winner was clearly best, laying down some legitimate fractions before pulling clear late while not even on the best part of the track. I do want to give Mosienko (#1A) some credit for applying pressure to that rival early before fading in the final furlong. Mosienko has never quite gotten back to the best form that she produced during her long stint in Dennis Lalman’s barn, but her last race was a small step in the right direction first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. Turning back to 6 furlongs should suit her as well. Less distance is probably not ideal for Maggy’s Palace (#8), who closed mildly for second behind Speightful Lily last time. However, she’s a reliable late runner, and possesses the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. She’s been short prices recently, but may be more palatable odds here as some bettors choose neighbor True Empress as the preferred closer. I just have more faith in Maggy’s Palace, who has proven her class against tough fields on this circuit. My top pick is the third-place finisher from that Dec. 12 affair, Miss Lao (#4). She was edged out by Maggy’s Palace in a photo for second, but might have run the better race overall. That day produced many results that made it seem like outside paths were preferred, as a few runners who rode the rail performed worse than expectations. Miss Lao raced pretty close to the rail for her entire trip, never outside the 2-path. Considering that less than ideal journey, she stayed on very well through the late stages. She’s primarily contested longer races recently, but she possesses the versatility to work out a trip from mid-pack if this pace heats up. She certainly fits this spot from a class perspective, and is usually a fair price for the low-profile but highly capable Dennis Lalman.
Fair Value:
#4 MISS LAO, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 9 - 3 - 10 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 6 - 3 - 1A
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 8 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
I have very little faith in either favorite in this $10k claimer for fillies and mares. April Antics (#3) obviously owns the best dirt route form coming in, but her form has been on a downward slide recently. She was pretty chilly on the board when she was dismissed at nearly 7-2 when dropping in class to the $16k level last time, and she ran a dull race, barely able to get up for third. I don’t like that she’s now being dropped again after getting claimed back by Rob Falcone. This mare has never carried her weight that well, and I wonder if she’s just gone the wrong way after a period of consistent activity since last summer. The problem with this race is that her main rival It Takes Heart (#2) is similarly untrustworthy, since she’s totally unproven going this far. You also have to question her current form after she faded to fifth as the favorite against $12,500 claimers last time. Linda Rice had had some success stretching horses out in this situation in the past, and it’s obviously a good sign that the Rice barn has put together a flurry of victories since the start of the new year. I just don’t really see anything about this mare that suggests she’s supposed to get better with added ground, and she’s going to take money by default. The only alternative that I can make a case for is Sister Linda (#7). This mare has clearly seen better days and hasn’t run particularly well since getting claimed by Dominick Schettino. However, the outlook is a little more positive when you start to take those races apart. She actually ran a decent race when aggressively ridden and setting the pace along a dead rail on May 10, and then something may have gone awry in her next start, as she went to the sidelines thereafter. She probably needed her return in November, and then last time she was never in great position going 6 furlongs, always towards the rail and ridden conservatively. Now the blinkers come off and she moves into an outside post position. It also doesn’t hurt that she gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco.
Fair Value:
#7 SISTER LINDA, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 6
I’m against Smile Mon (#2), who could take money off a series of fast speed figures across his last three starts. He was beating up on much weaker company when he was winning two and three back by large margins. He did get a class test last time at the starter allowance level and ran on pretty well to be second behind Skylander, who is in razor sharp form right now for Rick Dutrow. That rival came back to beat a tougher group of first-level allowance foes in his next start. However, others from that Nov. 14 starter race have regressed a bit. I don’t love the slight cutback to 7 furlongs for a horse who has always been a confirmed router, and who is now drawn inside of plenty of other speed. Between the two pace players exiting that Nov. 14 affair, I prefer For Some Reason (#3), who owns better sprint form and should be quick enough to make the lead here over his main rival. Donk Donk has done a great job improving this $14k claim, and he figures to be a fair price again. The horse to beat might be Critical Threat (#6), who put forth that explosive effort to beat $16k claimers two back at Saratoga, drawing off by 12 lengths with a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He didn’t run quite as well when stepped up against starter allowance foes last time at Churchill, still with the same connections. However, he did put in a strong move into the stretch, briefly taking over before fading a race that fell apart late. He drew well outside of some pace, and appears to fit well in this spot. My top pick is Commerce Comet (#8), who returns on relatively short rest for Rick Dutrow, but that’s never really a concern for this barn. He had started to turn things around for Ed Barker, winning that Sep. 21 claimer impressively before getting a tough trip against tougher in October. He was always out of position that day, but stayed on well for fourth. He put it all together in his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow two back, and a repeat of that effort will make him tough here. His most recent start 9 days ago might look disappointing, but he was wide throughout against an extremely strong rail bias. He never had a chance that day, and now gets another opportunity at a similar level, albeit facing a tougher field.
Fair Value:
#8 COMMERCE COMET, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
Headline Numbers (#7) figures to be a clear-cut favorite in this second-level allowance as she cuts back in distance and drops in class. It made sense for Chad Brown to try the Grade 2 Mother Goose last time, since it was coming up a short field without a standout. This filly finished last despite taking money, but she was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths while just failing to stay on through the final furlong. She had been awarded her first-level allowance victory via disqualification at Saratoga two back, but even that day she seemed to struggle to put the race away through the final furlong. Even though she’s bred to go longer, she seems like one who might actually appreciate this cutback to 7 furlongs. She still has upside in just the fourth start of her career, but she’s going to take plenty of money for these popular connections, and I still think she has some things to prove at this level. I’m interested in a couple of horses coming off victories at the N1X level. Kid’s Last Laugh (#3) had shown improvement off the claim for Rick Dutrow here last winter before going to the sidelines after running poorly in March. She ran better than it appears in her return in October, losing some position on the turn before galloping out best of all. She put it all together last time, showing improved tactical speed before drawing off to an authoritative victory. This is a much tougher spot, but she appears to be back in great form for a dangerous barn. My top pick is Patricia Ann (#1), who also exits a convincing victory against N1X allowance competition. She was sharp off the layoff that day, contesting the pace from the start before drawing away when asked for her best in the lane. I liked the way she kicked away from that field in upper stretch to earn a very respectable 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure going a distance that may be a little short for her. The waters get deeper here, but this lightly raced 4-year-old still has plenty of upside. She improved significantly in her second start as a young 3-year-old before gamely chasing home the classier Value Area going this distance in March. She missed plenty of time after losing her jockey in that May allowance race, but she appeared to return as a more refined version of herself in that November allowance. I don’t love the rail draw for her, but there isn’t a ton of pace in this race, so she should be able to attain a good stalking position.
Fair Value:
#1 PATRICIA ANN, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
I don’t want to default to the obvious Street Jam (#7) at any kind of short price in an otherwise confusing finale. She ran fine when claimed back by Linda Rice last time, but she was supposed to get the job done at that level after having met tougher foes in her prior starts. She just hasn’t really panned out since Rice initially took her from Kentucky for $62,500 in 2023, and the fact that she’s lost her early speed is a little concerning as she sticks at this 6-furlong distance. If I’m going to take a horse from that same Dec. 12 race, I would rather it be Mysaria (#8), who had a right to need her return from a layoff that day. She wasn’t right on the rail, but she did race in the 2-path throughout on a day when the inside paths didn’t seem like the place to be. She had run better than that prior to the layoff, and could be ready to step forward. The horse to beat if she repeats her last performance might be Dashing Della (#3). On paper, this looks like a step up in class, but the field that she was beating at the N2L level last time might have actually been tougher than this beaten claiming group. She certainly earned a speed figure that would suggest that, getting a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her dominant performance. She did get a perfect trip, but she might work out a similar journey here, and she doesn’t figure to be that short a price for low-profile connections. I’m definitely using her. My top pick is Karen’s Honor (#6). If I’m going to take a horse that was towards the inside on Dec. 12, it’s definitely her. She contested the pace from an inside post and was never able to get off the rail before fading late. A mile has always been stretching her stamina to the limit, so I don’t mind her turning back to 6 furlongs here. She’s not a horse who needs the lead, and now she’s getting a jockey upgrade to Manny Franco. She’s a little hard to trust given her inconsistency, but she ran better than it looks last time and figures to be the right price here.
Fair Value:
#6 KAREN'S HONOR, at 6-1 or greater
#3 DASHING DELLA, at 7-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 1 - 6 - 8 - 10
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Tap It Easy (#4), who just missed in a similar spot last time. He got a good trip stalking outside and looked like a winner when he took over in upper stretch. However, he switched over to his left lead at the eighth pole, and then back to his right at the sixteenth pole, appearing to lose a bit of focus as he got nailed on the wire. This colt now adds blinkers and Lasix, as Michelle Giangiulio tightens the screws for this third attempt. He appears to have the tactical speed to get forward again, and should be tough to beat with any kind of forward move. I trust him to get the distance more than main rival Roofer (#8), who showed potential on debut, overcoming a poor start to make a mid-race move. He progressed to finish second last time but couldn’t quite see out the 7 furlongs when overhauled by a first time starter late. I would rather look to some second time starters with greater upside. One of those is Runamor (#6), who exits the same race as Tap It Easy and was pretty green in that debut effort for Linda Rice. He broke a bit slowly, but moved up willingly on the backstretch only to get keen racing in behind the leaders. Jose Lezcano had a tough time restraining him, and then was unable to motivate him properly in the lane as he tried to lug in when asked for run. I suspect this horse has some talent, and he gets Lasix for the second start. However, he needs to prove that he can get over his antics if he’s to be successful, and I don’t love that Jose Lezcano jumps off this horse to ride for Mitch Friedman instead. I have a little more faith in Outsource (#3), who stretches out in his second start for Rick Dutrow. He got off to a slow start on debut and lacked early speed in the mud. He was briefly wide on the turn before angling back in between horses for the stretch drive. It wasn’t until the final quarter mile that he started to do some running, but he was finishing best of all across the wire and galloped out with purpose. This son of Honor A. P. is bred to go longer on both sides of his pedigree, so he should relish this stretch-out in distance. I would also expect him to show better early speed this time as he gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco. Rick Dutrow is 8 for 22 (36% $2.86 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the last year.
Fair Value:
#3 OUTSOURCE, at 7-2 or greater
#6 RUNAMOR, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7
Evaluation (#4) figures to go favored in this first-level allowance as she returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. She was professional and fast on debut, earning a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory. I don’t want to give her too much credit for beating the camera shy Geopolitics, but there was a big gap behind those top two finishers. The problem with that race is that Aug. 2 at Saratoga featured a strong rail bias, and Evaluation raced inside for much of her trip before angling out in the stretch. She stepped up against winners at this level in late August, and completely fell apart after chasing the pace. Now she’s gotten a freshening and looks to get back on track for a dangerous barn. I just doubt she’ll be much of a price, and I have trouble trusting a horse whose only competitive effort is a bias-aided victory. Another thing working against the favorite is the amount of speed in this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with multiple runners vying for the front end, including need the lead types such as Ariana Rye (#5) and Annieworkstoomuch (#6), who aren’t even shown as the quickest on the Pace Projector. I don’t want any of those frontrunners, and I think it’s a real possibility that this pace could come apart. There are a couple of late runners to consider. One of those is Valentine Gift (#2), who moves up in class out of a $25k conditioned claiming victory. Last time was probably the day to have her when she got dismissed at 11-1 getting back to dirt. I do think she has some upside on this surface, but she is stepping up into a much tougher spot this time. My top pick is Embraceable Gal (#3). This mare had concentrated on longer events during the early part of her career, but she turned back in distance this spring at Finger Lakes and seemed to respond well to those shorter trips. She really blossomed as a closing sprinter this summer, hitting the board in 6 consecutive starts at Finger Lakes before throwing in a clunker against slightly tougher in early November. She returned to the NYRA circuit last time, switching into the barn of Rob Atras, with something to prove at this class level. She was no match for impressive winner Al’s Ruby, but she was clearly second best while running deceptively well in defeat. She got off to a slow start, as is her custom, but advanced into the race under her own power and launched a wide rally into second. She made that impressive, wide run despite the fact that the pace was on the slow side. Now she figures to get a better setup and also receives an extra half-furlong.
Fair Value:
#3 EMBRACEABLE GAL, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
I originally wasn’t trying to beat McAfee (#8) in this Jerome, but after the scratch of that top contender I’m forced to reevaluate the race. While I respect likely favorite Studlydoright (#7), he’s not a horse that I’m inclined to bet in this spot. He’s obviously the most accomplished horse in this field as a two-time stakes winner on this circuit. However, he’s struggled with consistency. Perhaps he had an excuse in the Remsen, since he may not want to go as far as 1 1/8 miles, and he also missed some training time heading into that race. A repeat of his 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure from the Nashua would probably put him in the winner’s circle here, but he did get a perfect trip riding an advantageous rail path when he earned that number. One thing he does have working in his favor is the expected pace scenario of this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with four speeds signed on. That could work against fellow contender Cyclone State (#6), who has enjoyed pretty good trips in each of his last two victories. He got to set a pretty moderate pace when he beat maidens two back, and then was again able to control up front last time against an allowance field that didn’t turn out to be as strong as it appeared going in. He’s drawn well outside, but I get the feeling he’s already exposed. Ican (#3) is perhaps worth upgrading now that his uncoupled stablemate has scratched, but he would have to improve upon his runner-up finish behind Cyclone State. I want to go in a different direction with a horse who has more upside. Georgia Magic (#5) took plenty of money on debut, being the half of the entry that was attracting support. He put in a game effort, dueling for the lead along the rail before putting away his pace rival and holding off some late challenges. The race only got a 76 final time number, which was upgraded to an 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure due to the fast early pace. I believe he put in an even stronger effort than that number indicates, since the second and third place finishers both came back to improve in their subsequent starts. This colt would still need to improve if he were to beat this field, but he is bred to stretch-out, by 19% dirt route sire Good Magic, and Ray Handal has pretty strong statistics with last-out maiden winners over the last few years.
Fair Value:
#5 GEORGIA MAGIC, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
I don’t have anything major against the two logical favorites in this race. That’s Money (#6) is clearly the horse to beat after narrowly losing at this level last time. He got a wide trip around the far turn and stayed on gamely to just miss behind the in-form Beary Funny. He handled the 6 furlongs that day, but he shouldn’t mind this slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs, even though his prior attempts at this distance were a little disappointing. That said, he’s going out for a low-percentage barn at a short price. The same is true for main rival Thank You Jon (#8), who might have run the best recent race of anyone in this field when he finished second at this level on Nov. 8. He was part of a contested early pace that day, and did well to put away his pace rivals into the turn before getting reeled in by a late run from Chalky Cat as the race fell apart late. The problem is that he lacks consistency, and he returned to regress last time, finishing behind That’s Money with a similar trip. I like that he drew outside once again, but he’s a little tough to trust at this 7-furlong distance. Some might consider an alternative like Perfect Flight (#10), who comes out of some slightly tougher open claiming races. I just wish he had finished better in his last couple of starts. My top pick is Collect from Ike (#1), who also gets significant class relief. He’s been racing at higher claiming and allowance levels than this while meeting some pretty tough rivals along the way. That $25k conditioned claimer that he tried last time was much tougher than the field he encounters here. He was also done in by a hotly contested pace that came apart. This horse has generally done his best work on wet tracks, but he did run well over fast going in October, and his overall body of work on dirt is certainly good enough to make him a contender in this race. He figures to get an aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera, and should prove a gate-to-wire threat if he can get away cleanly.
Fair Value:
#1 COLLECT FROM IKE, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 1A - 7
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 5 - 1A - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
It probably isn’t reasonable to expect Bold Endeavor (#5) to get back to the form that carried him to a narrow loss against Maker’s Candy in a tough optional claimer back in January of last year. That 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure represented a career top for him, but he went to the sidelines thereafter and wasn’t seen for over 9 months. His return came against $40k claimers, and he lost as the 9-5 favorite while putting in a somewhat dull effort. He had every chance after stalking the winner’s pace, and just got tired late. He was a voided claim that day, and now he resurfaces dropping in class again all the way down to the $20k level. This vibes aren’t particularly positive with this runner, but he probably will beat this field if he merely repeats his return effort. It’s just a matter of whether or not you can trust him to do so at a short price. Trust is also the primary concern with a horse like Empty Tomb (#7), who has had a series of layoffs between his recent starts. He did win at this level over the summer at Saratoga, but he’s only managed one start since then, a mildly disappointing loss against $40k claimers after contesting a moderate pace. This subsequent dropdown probably makes sense for the now 9-year-old, and he did draw well outside. Majestic Frontier (#1A) is another horse looking to get back into form after winning at this level last winter while still in the Ralph D’Alessandro barn. He lost his form over the rest of last year, but he switched back into the D’Alessandro stable last fall and might now be heading in the right direction again. My top pick is Legal Deal (#3), who is making the opposite class move, rising up from the $16k level last time. He settled for third that day, but he was meeting a pretty strong group for that lower claiming tag, including next-out winner Montebello. He has gotten strange trips in each of his last two starts. He actually broke on top two back before getting shuffled all the way back to last by upper stretch, only to rerally for fourth. He did something similar last time, losing position on the far turn before finding his best stride late. I’m hoping that he can now run a more complete race as he makes his first start off the claim for Horacio De Paz. He has the tactical speed to get forward going this distance, and I believe he’s in better form than it might appear at first glance.
Fair Value:
#3 LEGAL DEAL, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
It’s hard to know exactly where the public will land in this confusing $40k conditioned claiming event. I suppose Boys Code (#7) has to attract attention for the sheer fact that he’s making his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow, who acquired him from a lower profile barn. The problem with Boys Code is twofold. He is a deep closer and this is a race that is severely lacking in early pace, so he could be compromised by the dynamics. Secondly, his form had significantly tailed off for his prior barn prior to him getting claimed, and it often isn’t so easy to resurrect these types even when they move into a more powerful stable. I won’t be surprised when he runs well, but there were enough red flags to make me look elsewhere. I don’t want to take a similarly short price on Fake Celebrity (#2), who has never run on dirt before. He does have some pedigree for this surface, but he’s now exiting the Chad Brown barn and he’s going to take money based on turf speed figures. The other logical alternative Tricolour (#5) has run the fastest recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of anyone in this field, but he’s awfully tough to trust as a win candidate. It took him 42 starts to break his maiden, finally doing so against a weak field as the even-money favorite. He did step up against winners last time and ran a decent race, but he was back to settling for minor awards. I’m most interested in a pair of alternatives who faced off at Finger Lakes. Incantation (#6) might be the more immediately appealing of the two, as he at least possesses some tactical speed in a race where he should have no trouble attaining forward position. He has to prove that he bring his Finger Lakes form to the NYRA circuit, but he did break his maiden over this course and distance as a 3-year-old, and it appears that he’s raced himself back into top form since returning from a lengthy layoff this summer. My top pick is Az U Chase Me (#3), who finished just behind Incantation when chasing home that rival on Oct. 21 and Nov. 11 at Finger Lakes. He didn’t get much pace to close into on either occasion, but he was staying on well late to pick up the pieces. He came to New York last time to contest a race at this level, and the trip just didn’t work out. He was asked for some speed leaving the gate, but had to steady out of position in the first furlong. He got too keyed up from there, running up on heels exiting the chute, forcing Javier Castellano to again check him out of position. From there, he was conservatively ridden at the back of the pack in a race dominated up front. He’s better than that, and now gets a switch to Sofia Vives, who has been riding well with limited opportunities this winter.
Fair Value:
#3 AZ U CHASE ME, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 6 - 1A
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 8 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Sand Devil (#1) figures to be a heavy favorite as he makes his second career start after making a positive impression on debut. He took significant money for a Linda Rice first time starter, getting bet down to 4-1, and he acted far more professional than most debut runners from that barn. He broke sharply, sat off an honest pace, and took over willingly in the lane. He got a strong 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, and it might be tempting to poke some holes in that number due to the fact that no one has yet run back out of the race. However, he did create some large gaps in behind him, beating the third-place finisher by 11 lengths, which validates the high number he received. The major question surrounding this favorite is the added distance. Based on pedigree, he’s not supposed to have any trouble handling it. His dam Mineralogist was a stakes winner going as far as 9 furlongs on the dirt, and her best progeny Can You Diggit also won a stakes routing at that distance. However, a few of her other foals have preferred sprint distances, and this colt is by speed influence Violence. Watching the debut, Sand Devil displayed a quick action that can sometimes be indicative of a sprinter. He figures to show speed from his inside post and may be too tough for this field if he runs back to that first performance. You just have to swallow a pretty short price on a horse trying something new for the first time. The only alternative I can really consider is main rival Smilensaycheese (#6). This colt had been so impressive in his debut at Saratoga where he bore out slightly on the turn and still found another gear to put that field away in a decisive score. However, the greenness that he displayed that day became more pronounced in subsequent starts, as he bolted on the far turn of the Funny Cide and again lugged out when failing to respond to his rider in the Bertram F. Bongard. He gave some hints that he was starting to figure out how to be a racehorse in the Sleepy Hollow where he at least battled back in a photo for third, getting back to his debut speed figure. Then last time in that lucrative Great White Way, it finally looked like the light bulb was turning back on. He seemed undeterred by racing amongst rivals early, and kept staying on late even when pushed inside in the stretch. It was no disgrace losing to a foe of Sacrosanct’s quality by just under 3 lengths. I don’t mind him stretching back out to a mile here, and the outside post can only help a horse who is still getting over his antics.
Fair Value:
#6 SMILENSAYCHEESE, at 7-5 or greater
RACE 3
A horse taking the kind of dropdown that we see from War Stride (#6) in this $25k conditioned claimer obviously merits some attention. He contested the pace against open N1X allowance foes in his last start, and is now meeting a much softer field. He had won his two starts prior to that, but both of those victories came against suspect competition at Finger Lakes. This is probably the right spot, as George Weaver is just getting realistic with a horse who has probably always belonged at this level. Neuschwanstein (#2) is now his main pace rival breaking from the rail under a typically aggressive Romero Maragh. This gelding appears to be rounding back into form for Ray Handal after a failed turf attempt in October. He stayed on decently for second at a slightly higher level last time and has earned speed figures going back to early fall which would make him highly competitive against this group. My top pick is Good Reunion (#3), who projects to sit a good trip from mid-pack, in behind the speeds. He’s another who appears to be steadily cycling up to a better effort. He clearly needed his return from a layoff where he found himself uncharacteristically close to the pace before fading. Then last time he launched a wide far turn move before flattening out against a tougher field than the one he meets here. I like the slight turnback to 6 furlongs for a horse who appears to have stamina issues, and Michelle Nevin is 9 for 38 (24%, $2.27 ROI) third off a layoff of 120 to 240 days over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#3 GOOD REUNION, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t fully trust likely favorite Break the Fall (#6), who appears to be a standout on paper as he drops in for a tag for the first time. Both of the speed figures he earned at the maiden special weight level this spring are faster than most of his rivals have run in any of their prior starts. I’m just a little skeptical that he can get back to that form after missing the rest of 2024. He had shown some promise on debut in a race that has proven to be considerably weaker than the speed figure it was assigned. He then strangely didn’t take any money for his second start and ran a dull race. Based on the numbers he’s earned, he would still fit nicely at the maiden special weight level (there was a 7-furlong event last weekend in which he might have been favored) but the connections are instead dropping him in for this $30k tag straight away. I see it as a red flag. Many others in this field don’t do much for me as alternatives. Stormy’s Dreaming (#4) just hasn’t gone on since his early races, and Burn Rubber (#7) was pretty disappointing when sent off as the favorite at this level last time. Though I suppose the latter runner’s early speed makes him dangerous again. Sicilianaire (#3) obviously has some upside off his belated rally on debut, but he has to break better than he did that day, and his running style is a concern. My top pick is Solo Flight (#1), who looks like the stronger half of this entry. He had shown some promise in his second start at Finger Lakes before getting wide trips in his efforts two and three back. He came to NYRA last time and ran pretty well in a more competitive spot than this one. He was extremely wide once again on the far turn, but he made a nice mid-race to move to challenge for the lead in mid-stretch before flattening out at the very end. I don’t mind him stretching out slightly to the 7 furlongs and Ralph D’Alessandro is due to get rolling at Aqueduct meet, where he usually sends out a few winners in the dead of winter.
Fair Value:
#1 SOLO FLIGHT, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Mr. Swagger (#8) is arguably the horse to beat after he beat a decent field at the $12,500 level to win his first start off the claim for the Wayne Potts barn last time. A repeat of that performance will make him tough for this group to handle. And it’s not like he had run much worse when competing for his prior barn this fall before throwing in a clunker in late November. I just don’t need to bet him at what is likely to be a short price this time. Pipes and Drums (#7) also makes plenty of sense as he gets needed class relief first off the claim for Ray Handal. This drop is pretty significant, and potentially a red flag. However, the horse’s form has been on the decline, and Handal is probably just acknowledging they didn’t make a great claim and is willing to move on. I actually don’t mind him stretching back out in distance, since he did have success going longer early in his career. I’ll try to beat these two obvious contenders with Venge (#1). This gelding had been racing well against weaker company at Finger Lakes through the fall, at least developing some consistency, which he had lacked for different connections on the NYRA circuit earlier in his career. He returned to Aqueduct last time and actually ran pretty well against a decent field at the $12,500 level. Winner Khafre would likely be favored against this group, and Venge was staying on well towards the inside late. I don’t mind him trying a mile here, and I like the inside draw for a horse who sometimes has a tendency to lug in towards the rail.
Fair Value:
#1 VENGE, at 5-1 or greater
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