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Featured Race:
Race 6
Approx. Post Time: 02 40 PM (Nov 21)
Property Menu
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 5 - 2B
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 8 - 10
Race 6: 8 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 3 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
First Class Cat (#3) looks pretty formidable at first glance in this starter allowance event. She’s run speed figures that are simply faster than most of her rivals in this spot and has done so while competing against slightly tougher New York-bred allowance company. She appears to be in the best form of her career right now, and gets Flavien Prat back aboard. She’s almost a little too obvious, and that’s why I’ve pegged her as the odds-on favorite on the morning line. I won’t be at all surprised when she wins, but I do think there are some others to consider. Graceful Rose (#6) has some races from last winter and spring that would make her competitive here, but those were going longer distances. She fell apart over the summer, and this feels like a starting point off the layoff. Thirteen Red Flags (#2) also returns from a freshening after going off form. Yet the cutback in distance makes more sense for her, since she had success sprinting earlier in her career. She has to get faster, but she also has a right to do so with routine maturity. My top pick is Poseidon’s Mist (#5). She might appear inconsistent at first glance, but her form looks a lot more encouraging when you just isolate her dirt sprints. She ran well to win here back in May, and then just barely lost after leading into deep stretch at Saratoga in September in her next dirt sprint. She was claimed out of that race by Chris Englehart, and stepped up to the New York-bred allowance level last time. While she faded to last, she actually put in a good effort, getting mildly shuffled back into the turn before making a far turn move and flattening out. That was a stronger field than this one, and the 3 horses to run back from that race have all improved their TimeformUS Speed Figure. Six furlongs is a better distance for her, and she has the tactical speed to get the jump on her main rival.
Fair Value:
#5 POSEIDON'S MIST, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
It’s pretty clear that the best efforts Strapped (#2) is capable of producing will beat this field. However, he’s a little tough to trust after putting in a poor performance last time. I generally don’t like these types of Linda Rice runners who drop down after losing their form. He also is chronically slow away from the gate, which often puts him in difficult positions. Between the two likely favorites, I prefer D Day Sky (#7). He’s also coming off a poor effort last time, but he never had much of a chance to make up ground after getting mildly shuffled back into the turn in a race dominated up front. He met a much tougher field two back, and probably doesn’t want to sprint anyway. I like him dropping to this level and stretching back out to a mile. My top pick is Boys Code (#5), who just figures to be a better price, mostly because it’s been so long since he’s won a race. He has lost 16 races since breaking his maiden in April of 2023. However, he has picked up his fair share of minor awards during that time and has held his form pretty well until recently. It’s been a few starts since he’s put forth a competitive effort, but now he’s dropping in class to race for a tag for the first time in over a year. He is also getting a significant rider upgrade to Eliseo Ruiz, who has quietly ridden well with limited opportunities over the past few months. He figures to be a fair price for low profile connections, and will appreciate any pace that develops.
Fair Value:
#5 BOYS CODE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 5
Furry Fox (#6) debuted against a much tougher field at the maiden special weight level and really didn’t run that poorly to split the field. She was extremely wide around the far turn and still stayed on decently for 6th in spite of that ground loss. She was then a vet scratch when entered in a similar spot sprinting on Nov. 9, but now lands here stretching out. She’s bred to go longer as a half-sister to Albany winner Bossmakinbossmoves and 7-time turf route winner Barleewon. Yet the best thing she has going for her is Rick Dutrow as her trainer. Dutrow went 7:4-2-1 here last week many horses achieving career-best efforts. She’s the logical favorite. My top pick is Silent Sandy (#5), who has already raced for this tag on a couple of occasions. She has lacked speed in both prior sprint starts, but stayed on late to pass some tired runners each time. She was wide every step of the way last time, but maintained her stride pretty well through the stretch, steadily making up ground and galloping out strongly through and past the wire. I get the impression that added distance will suit her, and her sire Thousand Words has had some initial success with his progeny in dirt routes. Greg Sacco does decently with maiden stretch-outs, and she figures to be a decent price given her lackluster speed figures.
Fair Value:
#5 SILENT SANDY, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
A Maize Zing Dotie (#2) figures to take money again after clearing her N1X allowance condition as the favorite last time. She’s now won 4 of her last 5 starts, though three of those victories came at Finger lakes against inferior competition this summer. She disappointed in her initial venture to the NYRA circuit after getting embroiled in a fast pace in August, but she rebounded last time with a victory over today’s rival Mybronxbaby (#7). Both of these fillies possess early speed and they figure to vie for early supremacy once again. I give slight preference to Mybronxbaby between the two of them, since she’s drawn better outside, and appears to have moved forward since they last met. However, the presence of Sue Ellen Mishkin (#5) could complicate matters both of those rivals. This Linda Rice trainee hasn’t raced since March, but she possesses plenty of early speed and is almost always leading at the first call in her races. She did win at this level in January, but she took advantage of a strong rail bias that day. I don’t like her to win the race, but she figures to have an impact on the outcome. There are a couple of closers to consider. Foxy Cara (#4) is getting a significant rider upgrade to Dylan Davis and has faced slightly tougher company in her last two starts at this level. My top pick is Harlan’s Bond (#1). Unlike most others in this field, she is actually dropping in class after having faced a tougher group at this level last time in a race won by future stakes winner Cara’s Time. She’s been off for several months since then, but the break was probably needed after she had made all 21 prior career starts without a single layoff line. Now she’s gotten 5 months to freshen up for this return, and she shows a pretty consistent worktab for the comeback. Her form might seem like it tailed off this spring, but she wanted no part of the one-mile distance two back and was overmatched last time. Her prior efforts make her a strong fit here, she has the right running style for this spot, and she figures to be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#1 HARLAN'S BOND, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 7 - 10
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 8 - 11
Race 8: 9 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 1 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
She’s a Tempest (#2) is the key to this race as she returns from a layoff while switching into the Bill Mott barn. This filly had shown a high level of talent last winter in California for former trainer Steve Knapp. She achieved her only victory in a strong maiden race going a mile last January, defeating Ultimate Authority, who came back to win her next start improving by 10 TimeformUS Speed Figure points. She’s a Tempest then twice finished third in Grade 3 company, but was beaten by some pretty talented rivals including Kinza, who led that Southern California 3-year-old filly division early last year. She ascended to a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure in that most recent start in March, but subsequently went to the sidelines. Bill Mott is 6 for 32 (19%, $1.21 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days over the past 5 years. Her early speed should play well here, but she has to prove that she can be as effective sprinting. My top pick is Kid’s Last Laugh (#7), who also makes her second start off a layoff. This filly showed immediate improvement off the claim for Rick Dutrow last winter, winning a starter allowance before stepping up to this level. She put in an especially strong effort on Feb. 24 when closing for second behind Amaretti, who had set a slow pace up front. That 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive with this field if she can repeat it. Her last two efforts haven’t been as successful, but she rushed up after a slow start going a mile two back, and then was on the sidelines. Her return race in October is better than it appears, since she got shuffled back along the inside around the turn and then was coming on best of all late behind a gate to wire winner. She was flying across the wire and galloped out very strongly, suggesting that she finished with more left in the tank. She figures to hold her position better breaking from an outside post this time, and the extra half-furlong should benefit her.
Fair Value:
#7 KID'S LAST LAUGH, at 8-5 or greater
RACE 5
Swiftsure (#6) is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to make it two in a row on turf after making the first 19 starts of his career on the dirt. He got dismissed at 11-1 last time when making that switch to grass, and the new surface obviously agreed with him. He chased an honest pace, took over willingly in the stretch, and had enough left to hold on. That was an optional claimer at Laurel and this is a slightly tougher spot, but it’s not as if this race came up all that tough for an N2X allowance affair. Some might view it as a slight negative that he’s in for the $62,500 tag, but he’s a 6-year-old gelding with limited upside. I prefer him to Call Me Harry (#2), who also races for the tag and figures to take money coming off a pair of victories against New York-breds. This just feels like a bigger step up in class for him. He did draw well towards the inside and Rick Dutrow’s horses have been running well lately, but I don’t see much value here with Irad Ortiz riding. Be Like Clint (#7) has been in great form lately, and finally broke through his N1X condition last time despite getting a difficult wide trip in that three-turn affair. The major question for him is the turnback in distance, since he’s concentrated on marathon trips recently. However, he has handled shorter distances in the past and appears ready for this class hike. My top pick is Magical Ways (#5). I’ve been chasing this horse a bit ever since he got on turf, and he has taken a step forward on the grass, running well despite going off at generous prices. He didn’t have a major excuse when he finished third at this level last time, but the pace did mostly hold together and he was finishing best of all late when finally hitting his best stride in the final furlong. He won going 9 furlongs on dirt, and it feels like this extra distance should work in his favor on turf. Rudy Rodriguez has sent out some live runners lately, and Romero Maragh seems to ride this gelding well.
Fair Value:
#5 MAGICAL WAYS, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
I’m not way against the two likely favorites in this first level allowance for New York-breds. Red Burgundy (#8) is probably the one to beat after twice finishing second for this condition. Her early speed is generally an asset, but it did put her against the race flow last time when the pace was pretty quick, which set things up for deep-closing winner Midnight Concerto. That filly came back to win her next start against tougher, which flatters the form. Red Burgundy also ran well two back after needing her return from the layoff at Saratoga. She’s very logical. Tongue Twister (#5) is moving up out of starter optional claiming races, but it’s not clear that she’s actually meeting a tougher field of New York-breds here. She really doesn’t have to improve much on that 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned last time. The knock against her is that she has gotten very nice trips in those last two efforts, but she does seem like the type that has the versatility to make her own good trips. My top pick is first time turfer Sweet Anniversary (#4). This filly has already shown quite a bit of talent on the dirt, so she doesn’t have to improve much on grass to beat this field. All 4 of her victories have come at Finger Lakes, so she also has to prove she can transfer that form to this circuit. I am optimistic that she will take to grass, since Solomini has had some mild success as a turf sire, and her dam has produced turf specialist Mr. Kringle. The dam herself also ran well on the turf without winning. She has the body type and stride of a horse who should be able to transfer to grass, and she’s drawn well with tactical speed.
Fair Value:
#4 SWEET ANNIVERSARY, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 8
Isle of Capri (#4) couldn't have been much more impressive on debut at Kentucky Downs. She showed excellent gate speed to establish an early advantage, and spurted away from that field in an instant when asked for acceleration in upper stretch. She was intended to make her stakes debut in the Jessamine in October at Keeneland, and made it all the way to the starting gate only to act up and get scratched by the vet. She now steps up against winners in this spot instead. Brendan Walsh is 5 for 15 (33%, $4.59 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts on turf over 5 years, so he has success with this move. However, she wasn’t facing the strongest field first time out, and she has to prove she can get added distance. My top pick is the other debut winner Laurelin (#9). This Irish-bred filly did everything right on debut, acting like one who had done it before. She didn’t have much speed away from the gate, but Kendrick Carmouche rode her with so much confidence. He asked her to make two distinct moves during the race, first advancing into mid-pack onto the backstretch, then making a wide run to the lead in upper stretch. She earned a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure in victory, and was flattered when 6th-place Winning Streep came back to win on synthetic. She doesn’t have to improve much to beat this field, and fits the same profile as Motion’s winner of the Central Park on Saturday. I primarily want to use her with Reining Flowers (#6), who won the slower division of two allowance races at Keeneland on Oct. 11. However, she ran a lot better than the margin or time suggests, since she was wide on both turns and had to close into a slow pace. She will be finishing strongly if any pace develops here.
Fair Value:
#9 LAURELIN, at 9-5 or greater
RACE 9
I don’t want to settle for the obvious short prices who all have major questions to answer. Calling Card (#8) might go favored, but I don’t want a horse that will take money based on turf races. He did close well for second behind Sounds Like a Plan, who came back to finish fourth in the Central Park on Saturday. The added distance worked for him, but now he has to prove he can transfer that form to grass. He has pedigree to do so, but I don’t want to take short prices on horses like this. Iron Max (#7) has at least run reasonably well on the dirt, but he benefited from a good trip riding the rail on Aug. 1, which featured an extremely strong inside bias. He was intended to be more of a turf horse early on, and he has been entered on turf since that last race, stuck on the AE list. It seems like his connections are only switching back to dirt because turf season has ended. Joker On Fire (#3) is the other runner who will attract support, and he does at least have some decent dirt form. However, I haven’t liked the way he’s finished off his sprint races, so I have major issues with him stretching out to a mile here. Chasing Colton (#2) is a viable option, having already run well going this distance on dirt. He seemed to improve with the stretch-out to a mile, though he might need another step forward to beat this field. There are also some bigger prices to consider. Asset Management (#1) is a total wild card as he makes his second start. He got a very strange ride and trip on debut just 15 days ago. He was in decent position early, but then Jose Gomez started to rise up in the saddle coming to the quarter pole and kept a strong tug on the left rein as he basically just eased this horse through the stretch, never asking him for any run. It appeared that the horse was trying to lug in badly, and Gomez struggled to correct him. He’s probably better than that, but I would demand a generous price on him given the antics he displayed on debut. My top pick is Oath of Omerta (#5), who makes his second attempt going this one-mile distance. He didn’t run that badly when third at this level on debut, and then the connections just got too ambitious trying a stakes in his next start. He stretched out to this distance last time and ran better than his fourth-place result indicates. He was in decent position on the turn, but got a very tentative ride from Jose Lezcano, who had trouble working him into the clear approaching the quarter pole. He ultimately found running room late and was staying on belatedly. I suspect he has more to offer than that, and he figures to benefit from the addition of blinkers. It’s a good sign that Lezcano keeps the mount, and the price will be right.
Fair Value:
#5 OATH OF OMERTA, at 7-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 8 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 1 - 8 - 9
Race 9: 4 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 10: 8 - 12 - 1 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Man in Finance (#1) may go favored in this Notebook Stakes after winning his career debut so impressively in September. He broke well and raced prominently throughout, finding another gear in the late stages to pull away from today’s rival Kenny Be. He was flattered when that foe came back to break his maiden by over 8 lengths in his next start, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure. Man in Finance’s 104 TimeformUS Figure is still the highest number in this field, but I wonder if he will be cranked up to run as well this time. Danny Gargan has been clear that the primary objective with him is that $500k New York Stallion Series stakes next month. He also mentioned a possible plan to rate him from this rail draw, which would put him in an unfamiliar early position. I just think there are enough questions surrounding him to be mildly against him in this spot. I much prefer his main rival Kenny Be (#6), who seemed to take a significant step forward in breaking his maiden last time. The pace was fairly slow, but it was still impressive that he was able to spurt away from that field with such a potent turn of foot through the lane. He has drawn the rail in both prior starts, which has forced him to get ridden aggressively to the lead, but it's unclear that he has to be ridden that way. Now he’s drawn towards the outside with the option to play the break. The David Duggan barn has been on a roll recently, and this gelding appears to have landed in a good spot to make it two in a row. He won’t be some huge price, but I view him as a very likely winner. Soontobeking (#3) is the best closing option in this field, but he probably needs some help from the two favorites if he’s to pick up all the pieces late. He seems like a good horse to key underneath my top pick. I’m also somewhat intrigued by the filly Shoot It True (#5), who will reportedly run here rather than Sunday’s Key Cents. She ran well on debut and then got involved in a pace duel that collapsed last time. She has some upside, but it’s unclear what kind of trip she’ll work out and these types often take too much money for Ward.
Fair Value:
#6 KENNY BE, at 7-5 or greater
RACE 4
Street View (#2) is obviously the horse to beat based on her recent dirt efforts. While she’s made the majority of her prior starts on turf, she seemed to take to the main track pretty well when second in that off the turf race in July at Saratoga. She then followed that up with an even better effort going this distance two back in her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. It might appear that she regressed on turf last time, but she got quite the trip in that race, getting shuffled back to last out of the chute and then went wide when trying to rally on the far turn. This is a softer spot, and she obviously handles the conditions. The only problem is that she’s an 0 for 12 maiden without much upside. The other Rice trainee Looks First (#3) is one to consider, and it’s mildly interesting that Jose Lezcano lands here instead. She has much more early speed than her stablemate, but distance is a big question for this filly who has never raced beyond 7 furlongs on dirt. She has been off for a long time since getting claimed by Rice in April, and notably is returning without use of the claiming waiver. My top pick is Promdatebonnie (#4), who drops into the softest spot of her career while also trying dirt for the first time. She had been working well this summer at Saratoga prior to making her return to the races at Aqueduct this fall. She chased the pace before fading against better company two back, and then regressed with a similar trip last time. However, her best workouts this summer came on the dirt, and it’s fair to wonder if she’s just been running on the wrong surface. Hard Spun is a versatile sire who can get dirt horses, and it’s not as if her dam’s side pedigree is overwhelming turf-oriented. She has the early speed to be prominent throughout in a race lacking much pace.
Fair Value:
#4 PROMDATEBONNIE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 5
Save Us Melania (#1) is the key to this first-level allowance race. There isn’t much early speed in here, and she should be able to control the pace from her rail draw. However, class is a major question for this filly, who only broke her maiden for a $20k tag two back. She did improve off the claim for Linda Rice going this distance last time, and she beat a pretty good rival in Princess Becca. That foe came back to win, but regressed by 6 TimeformUS points. She’s arguably the horse to beat, but I preferred the proven class of others. Sedona (#5) has the opposite problem, since she obviously fits at this level. Yet she just lacks any early speed and figures to be up against the race flow without a setup. I expect her to be picking up pieces late, but she’s tough to take as a win candidate, especially since she always goes off at short prices. Bells Beach (#6) is a bit more interesting as she returns from a freshening after disappointing in the Wilton early in the Saratoga meet. Perhaps racing off Lasix was a problem for her, as she just never seemed to be herself that day, out of position early and never making an impact. She had run well to break her maiden two back, and would be a serious threat here with a return to that form. My top pick is Best Impression (#3), who makes her second start off a layoff after fading in her return at Saratoga. She broke slowly that day and rushed up to chase a quick pace before getting tired on the far turn. She had a right to need that start after missing several months. This filly had shown promise early in her career, especially on debut where she overcame a slow start to just miss. She has the speed to be forwardly placed when she breaks cleanly, as she did in her maiden score. I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best of her, and she figures to be a square price.
Fair Value:
#3 BEST IMPRESSION, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
Autumn (#1) comes into this state-bred maiden special weight affair with the best overall form, but her 0 for 11 career record makes her difficult to rely upon as a win candidate. She’s run the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figures of anyone in this field, and it isn’t particularly close. She’s also come pretty close to getting her picture taken on a few occasions, narrowly beaten by some rivals who would be prohibitive favorites in a spot like this. She tried to cut back to 6 furlongs last time and was finishing with good interest, but just ran out of ground going that short. Stretching back out to this two-turn distance should suit her, and she’s drawn well inside. She is the horse to beat, I’m not inclined to take short prices on runners like this. There are a few lightly raced wild cards with upside. One of those is Just One More (#2), the younger full-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Voodoo Song. She didn’t show much ability when she debuted against open company in April, but perhaps she’s matured since then. The blinkers come off and she’s not catching the toughest field for this level. Elite Status (#9) also intrigues as she returns from an even longer layoff, having not raced since February. This will mark her turf debut, but she has some pedigree for this surface. Big Brown is a decent grass influence, and her dam was a 2-time turf winner who preferred this surface. However, she shows a short worktab, so it’s fair to wonder if she might need this start. If she wasn't a 27-start maiden, I might find She's a Natural (#8) a bit more interesting, since she had quite the trip when finishing behind Autumn in her Sep. 21 turf route. She's tough to endorse on top, but is one to consider underneath at a price. My top pick is Starlight Dancer (#5). This filly is moving up in class from the maiden claiming ranks, and I typically would shy away from a horse with this profile. However, this isn’t the toughest maiden special weight event, and she has been steadily improving over the course of her last couple of starts. She showed improved speed off a brief layoff two back, dueling with the eventual winner before settling for second. She then took a big step forward last time, again ridden aggressively from the rail but pushed by a pair of longshots through fast early fractions. She dispatched of those pace rivals fairly early and opened up a large lead on the far turn before getting caught in the stretch. The winner got a perfect trip, and Starlight Dancer finished over a dozen lengths ahead of both fillies chasing her early. Her 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure, boosted by a pace upgrade, was a career best. Now she gets to cut back a half-furlong and should be in position to control this race on the front end.
Fair Value:
#5 STARLIGHT DANCER, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 9
Likely favorite Early Adopter (#9) delivered on debut at Saratoga, though it didn't come up particularly fast. He looked like a horse that was figuring things out during the race, and finished strongly. He took a step forward next time in the Pilgrim, making a move into contention in mid-stretch, where he got fouled by one of today’s rivals. He did well to regain his momentum and get up for third, suggesting that he’s capable of even better with a clean trip. That effort makes him the horse to beat here, and it certainly doesn’t hurt to pick up Flavien Prat. Smooth Breeze (#8) was the horse who impeded Early Adopter in the Pilgrim, appearing to shy from the whip as he dramatically drifted out into that rival’s path. He cost himself some momentum in that incident, but was probably going to finish fourth regardless. I thought this horse showed nice acceleration to win his debut, but that came against a weaker New York-bred field. He still has to confirm his quality against a field like this. There are a few New York-breds trying open company in this field, and the one that appeals most to me is Jack and Jim (#4). This Graham Motion trainee comes off a debut victory that was pretty fast for the level, and the speed figure has since been validated by runbacks. He was very professional for a first time starter, rating kindly in mid-pack before producing a strong kick through the lane. He had to alter course briefly when herded out in the stretch, but found another gear late. He doesn’t need to improve much on that performance to factor here. Jack and Jim is drawn well again, and has the right running style for a race that features plenty of pace.
Fair Value:
#4 JACK AND JIM, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 10 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 10 - 7 - 9 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
It’s hard to eliminate horses in this maiden race for 2-year-olds, since they all still have something to prove and only the first time starter Regal Alliance would be a massive shock. I’m not inclined to settle for a short price on anyone, though I do recognize Hard Circle (#3) as the most likely winner as he gets back on turf. This colt faced a nice field on debut at Kentucky Downs, chasing home subsequent stakes winner Warheart, as well as Aqueduct maiden winner City of Oscars. He didn’t care for dirt last time in the Laurel Futurity and also got the wrong trip, shuffled along the rail into the stretch. I like him getting back on this surface and he has enough sprint influences in his pedigree to not be too concerned about the turnback. Beach Invasion (#5) has a similar profile to that runner, but just hasn’t run as well yet. He also debuted at Kentucky Downs, getting a wide trip. He’s shown improved speed on dirt since then and probably deserves another chance on grass at a price. A horse like After Taxes (#8) could take money, but I need him to show more after disappointing on debut at Saratoga. That was a tougher field and he’s returning with some changes, but I would still need a square price to back him in this spot. I do want to consider the first time starter Snare (#10), who goes out for connections that can get a first time starter to run well. He is obviously bred to be a good one, by hot first crop sire Vekoma out of Grade 3 winning turf horse Keri Belle. The works seem decent, and the Oct. 31 drill matches this barn’s older allowance filly Quarrel. My top pick is actually the other Mike Maker trainee Flat to Da Mat (#4). This one is a recent addition to the barn after making two starts for a different trainer this summer. He was no match for a tough field on dirt in his Saratoga debut, racing greenly from the kickback. He got on turf last time but that was going longer. He actually seemed to handle the surface relatively well, but had little to offer late after a 2 to 3-wide trip. I like him turning back, and this is probably the softest field he’s met. It also doesn’t hurt to pick up a top turf rider like Dylan Davis.
Fair Value:
#4 FLAT TO DA MAT, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 6
The best race Two for Charging (#5) can produce will beat this field, but he’s awfully tough to trust. This gelding has lacked consistency of his entire career, and rarely puts top efforts back to back. He comes off a narrow loss at a slightly higher level than this, but he got a fantastic pace setup that day. The horse he was closing in tandem along with, winner Debate, came back to disappoint in two subsequent starts, so I wonder if they were just beneficiaries of race flow. There doesn’t appear to be nearly as much speed in this event, so I want others. The horse to catch might be Parkerness (#8), who ran pretty well in that Sep. 20 affair on this circuit. He was actually the one setting the pace that benefited Two for Charging, and he didn’t fade that badly to finish fourth. He’s since run twice out of town with mixed results, but he lands in a logical spot and is drawn well outside with speed. Watasha (#2) is another that participated in that Sep. 20 race, but he probably needed that start off a layoff, especially given that he was protected with the waiver. He ran better when dropped to this level last time and now puts blinkers back on. He has prior races from last year that would beat this field, and may be set for another step forward third off the layoff. My top pick is Heard On Thestreet (#7), who is yet another to come out of that common Sep. 20 race. He made the first move after Parkerness to break the race open before getting swallowed up by the two closers late. Since then he disappointed at this level on Oct. 13 but was never in great position. He ran better going a mile last time, but the distance seemed to take its toll late. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Fernando Abreu, who is 11 for 65 (17%, $2.75 ROI) with this move over 5 years. He has more tactical speed than he’s been showing in recent starts, and gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco.
Fair Value:
#7 HEARD ON THESTREET, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
This $32k claimer is one of the most competitive races on the card, lacking a clear favorite. Perhaps the public will go forNatural Harbor (#4) as he seeks to win his second in a row for the Brad Cox barn. This colt has prior races that make him a strong fit at this level, but he went off form earlier this year and then failed to show up when claimed by Fernando Abreu at Saratoga. Brad Cox claimed him at this level and dropped him in for $20k last time, which seemed to restore his confidence as he dominated that field on the front end. He’s best when he can be forwardly placed, but he doesn’t figure to get an easy lead here with other speed signed on. Squire Creek (#6) might be the quickest of them all early, but he’s exiting a disappointing performance as the favorite where he got to set a moderate pace over a track that was favoring inside speed. Even with those advantages, he still lost to today’s rival Secret Rules (#8). That 7-year-old gelding makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez after getting back into form for the Michelle Giangiulio barn. He won at this level over the summer, and was compromised by a wide trip last time. Rudy Rodriguez has gotten off to a strong start at this meet, and the outside draw should work for this horse’s style. Chief Ron (#1) is an interesting new face on this circuit after facing starter allowance and optional claiming fields at Delaware. He won three in a row this spring, but has settled for minor awards in his last few starts. However, he has kept good company in those races, beaten twice by the talented Spikezone this summer. Michelle Nevin doesn’t have particularly compelling statistics off the claim, but this horse should benefit from any pace that develops. My top pick is Commerce Comet (#7). He was defeated by a couple of today’s rivals at this level last time, but the trip just didn’t work out for him. He wasn’t aggressively handled away from the gate and got shuffled out of position in the first furlong. He’s a horse who generally does his best running up towards the front end, but he was forced to adapt to a closing trip last time. He raced in traffic for much of his journey, but was finishing with good interest when angled to the far outside in the stretch. That effort suggests he’s maintaining the good form that he displayed against weaker company two back. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow, who has had success with this move. Drawing towards the outside should help him get a better trip this time.
Fair Value:
#7 COMMERCE COMET, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Things don’t get much easier in this allowance optional claimer sprinting on turf. Biz Biz Buzz (#5) could attract support after finishing second at this level in his first start for the Maker barn last time, especially getting the rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. However, he benefited from sitting on top of a slow pace, and the runbacks from that race have been a little disappointing. Among the shorter prices, I prefer Live High Live Low (#6), who exits a career-best effort when closing for second in the Carle Place against fellow 3-year-olds. That was his first ever turf sprint, and he seemed to really appreciate the shorter distance, which intensified his late kick. That form was boosted when third-place Works for Me came right back to beat older horses in the Aqueduct Turf Sprint last weekend. This George Weaver trainee took a while to come around, but he appears to fit well here in his current form. A few of these exit the Oct. 17 race at the same level won by Fluid Situation (#7). That was the day to have him at 12-1 when he got the right trip stalking a moderate pace. He was ready to go off a brief freshening that day, but he isn’t a horse who always puts top efforts back to back. We didn’t get to find out how Gaslight Dancer (#10) might have stacked up against that field when he lost his rider at the start. However, he actually ran quite the race without the jockey, bolting to the outside rail on the turn and then flying home outside in the stretch. If nothing else, that’s confirmation that he’s still dialed in following that strong winning effort against weaker in September. He is drawn well outside but the speedy Java Buzz scratching out doesn't help his cause. That scratch may help Charging (#4) most of all. This horse was unable to make the lead against much tougher in the Harvey Pack last time and got stuck chasing on the wrong part of the track, so I won't hold that against him. He had gotten a difficult trip in his prior start in the Get Serious, never in a comfortable spot chasing inside. He was in good form prior to that, and may have an opportunity to make the lead here under the more aggressive Ricardo Santana. My top pick is Seaver (#1), who arguably should have won that Oct. 17 event after a wide trip. He had decent position early, but then was shuffled back past the half-mile pole and angled wide for the stretch drive. He finished gamely once finally set down. It was a return to form for a horse who has had his fair share of excuses for poor results since the spring. He was on the wrong part of the course two back at Saratoga, and got less than ideal rides prior to that. Now he gets an upgrade to Javier Castellano and is drawn well inside.
Fair Value:
#1 SEAVER, at 5-1 or greater
#4 CHARGING, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 9
There is very little form in this finale, but I do think it’s an interesting race where a couple of horses have run better than their results suggest. Among the logical contenders, the least interesting might be Just Licorice (#3), who has run fine against tougher on turf, and now drops down on dirt. He did have trouble at the start two back and was wide last time, but I’m just not convinced that he’s really a dirt horse and thought others had more upside. Revivalism (#9) feels like a candidate to improve, but he really needs to take a big step forward after getting beaten by massive margins in both prior starts. He was against a strong rail bias on debut, and then last time seemed to react badly to kickback. Drawing outside will help him if he can get the distance. Daytona Moonshine (#7) is another dropping out of a maiden special weight race when disappointing in his turf debut. It looks like he didn’t do any running based on the margin of defeat, but he ran a strange race. Irad Ortiz put in a tentative ride that day, seeming to give up after he got so far back. Yet he asked this horse for run in the stretch, and he was absolutely flying across the wire. The Gmax sectional times confirm this, getting him running his final sixteenth in 5.64 seconds, by far the fastest closing fraction in the race. He’s better than he looks, and it’s not as if he has an overwhelming turf pedigree. I think he’s usable at the right price, but I’m concerned he’ll take too much money with Chad Brown as his trainer. My top pick is Romeo Void (#10), who is getting the class relief that he needs. This horse took some serious money on debut, but that was likely a function of Irad Ortiz taking the mount. He ran like a horse who wanted no part of sprinting, lacking early speed and just plodding along at one pace. He didn't run that well on turf last time, but he was extremely wide around both turns. His best sibling is actually Fade to Grey, who broke her maiden going 9 furlongs on dirt. He still looks like a horse that is supposed to appreciate going longer, and perhaps he just needs this dropdown on dirt. He’s drawn well outside and doesn’t need to improve much to factor here.
Fair Value:
#10 ROMEO VOID, at 7-2 or greater
#7 DAYTONA MOONSHINE, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 9 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 8 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 11 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 10 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
The horse to beat in the opener is obviously Well Suited (#9), who is getting significant class relief dropping out of a pair of maiden special weight events. He didn’t even run that badly on debut when picking up pieces to close for fifth behind some vastly superior rivals. More was expected on turf last time, but it’s not as if he has a ton of pedigree for that surface. He’s been gelded since then and is dropping to a level at which he should be competitive. My one concern is the turnback to 6 furlongs, since he doesn’t seem like a horse who is ideally suited to going this short. It may not matter. The interesting trip horse in the race is Real Eleve (#2), who got quite an eventful journey on debut, getting taken up at the start before dragging his rider forward to contest the pace. He was uncontrollable through the early stages, and was totally spent by the time they got to the quarter pole, stopping badly in the lane under no real pressure. My concern with him is the surface. He was entered for turf on debut, and he’s bred to be strictly a turf horse. Even new sire Authentic has had more success on turf than dirt so far with his progeny. This one feels like a trap to me. Tapwrits Temper (#3) may not have as much upside as that horse, but he certainly fits here based on his best effort from the summer at Saratoga. He dropped for a tag last time, but that was a much tougher spot. He fits here and figures to be a square price. My top pick is Papa’s Nico Boy (#4) could get similarly overlooked. He was just overmatched against maiden special weight rivals on turf this summer, and that’s not even a surface that he has much pedigree to handle. He got on dirt last time and showed some signs of life. He actually broke alertly and was briefly trying to contest the pace even though his rider had little interest in going forward. He traveled well to the half-mile pole, but got mildly shuffled back along the rail and was no factor thereafter. Yet that came up a fast race for the level, and now he’s getting significant class relief as he drops in for a tag. I like him turning back, and Ed Barker has been on a strong run over the last couple of months here.
Fair Value:
#4 PAPA'S NICO BOY, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 2
Backstretch Rose (#7) arguably comes into this starter allowance with the best overall form, having won going this distance for the same connections at Saratoga in August. However, that victory came during a time when Flying P Stable was having inordinate success at the meet, and the outfit has cooled off since then. This filly did hold her form well for different connections last time, but her lack of early speed was an issue, as it has been many times in her career. Her running style may be a liability again this time without much early speed signed on. Enigmatic (#5) figures to be in front early, but she is pretty tough to trust after twice disappointing at short prices at this level during the Saratoga meet. She’s returning from a brief freshening, and it’s a good sign that there’s no drop in class. It is fair to wonder if she was carried along by a rail-biased surface when she won in June, but she could encounter another favorable set of circumstances here. Horses like Elliptic (#3) and La Vita Sofia (#6) also make sense after winning against weaker claiming foes in their most recent stats, but the former also does her best running from off the pace, and the latter went to the sidelines following that victory. I’m going in a different direction with Roman Goddess (#8). Some may find her less appealing than other options due to her 2 for 22 lifetime record with 10 third-place results. However, her consistency is admirable, and she appears to have taken a step forward since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. I liked the grit she displayed to fend off Backstretch Rose for second in that Sep. 28 claiming event, and last time she gamely chased home the in-form Princess Becca at this level. She figures to get good forward position from this outside post under the typically aggressive Romero Maragh. I also don’t mind her stretching out to a mile even though she’s rarely gone this far. She strikes me as one who will handle it.
Fair Value:
#8 ROMAN GODDESS, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 3
Smile Mon (#8) figures to go favored as he seeks his third victory in a row. This horse has always had talent, but he went badly off form earlier this year, and initially looked like a disappointing claim for $50k by Rob Atras in the spring. His first few starts for the new barn were poor, but he has really turned things around since dropping in class. He regained some confidence in that $16k claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime in September, just dominating an overmatched group on the front end. He then faced a more competitive pace scenario last time, but drew off with authority again. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the horse to beat, but now he has to produce that form against a much tougher field with more speed signed on. He’s drawn well outside, but For Some Reason (#4) seems committed to going forward as he stretches out in distance. I’m just not sure that Smile Mon has the fortitude to overcome real pressure and hold off some more accomplished late runners. The obvious alternative to this favorite is Winnin’onweekends (#7), who drops slightly in class after facing allowance optional claiming foes last time. The distance may have been a little far for him, which helps to explain why he hung in the late stages. Yet he still ran well coming to this circuit after having been relatively consistent at Parx over the summer. I don’t mind him cutting back to one turn, and view him as a contender. The same goes for Skylander (#2), who has been pretty consistent despite changing barns a few times since early summer. He found $40k claimers to be slightly too tough two back, fading after making a menacing move at the quarter pole. He got back on track last time, producing a stronger finish after being reserved early. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow, who is capable with this move. My top pick is a horse who actually exits that same race. Kahala (#5) finished 6 lengths behind Skylander, but the pace scenario didn’t suit him at all. They crawled up front, depicted by all blue TimeformUS Pace Figures, giving him little chance to make up ground. He actually had a chance to show more speed after breaking alertly, but Joel Rosario seemed intent on dragging him off the pace. It didn’t work out, but he still ran on with good interest through the lane. Now he lands in a spot that is supposed to feature a contested pace scenario. He’s been steadily improving since the claim by Chris Englehart, and seems primed for a career-best effort under these circumstances.
Fair Value:
#5 KAHALA, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
The complexion of this race would drastically change if Relfexivity (#11) got the one necessary scratch to draw into the field. There isn’t much pace signed on for a turf sprint, and she would become the clear speed even from this outside post. Her TimeformUS Early Pace Rating of 112 is significantly faster than anyone else in this field. She’s also coming off a competitive effort at this level, having maintained her form nicely since the claim by William Morey. I wouldn’t expect her to be much of a price, but she’s definitely a major part of my play if she gets in. I’m not as sure about how to handle some of her rivals cutting back in distance. Collaboration (#4) arguably has the best form of anyone in this field, but she’s never gone shorter than a mile, and she figures to get outrun early cutting back to this distance. Therefore, she not only has to adapt to a new race configuration, but she also has to do so with a new running style. Striker Has Dial (#8) also cuts back, but at least she’s been competitive in one-turn races on the dirt. I still wonder if she has the pure speed to win going 6 furlongs, but she did at least take to turf pretty well last time. Golden Rocket (#7) might be the most reliable option among those with recent sprint form. She really seemed to take to sprinting on turf when turned back at Saratoga this summer, and confirmed that improvement with a victory against New York-breds two back. She even held her form nicely on dirt last time, suggesting that she’s still thriving in the Kantarmaci barn. The chief concern is her closing style in a race without much pace. I put By Any Other Name (#2) on top, but I would need a price to back her in this spot. She has major questions to answer as she makes her second start in the United States following a long layoff. She won going a mile in Australia, but she’s certainly bred to go shorter being a half-sister to Grade 1 Jaipur winner Oleksandra. She has a long way to go to match that sibling, but I do think she’s more likely to find success in this one turn race now that she has a start under her belt.
Fair Value:
#2 BY ANY OTHER NAME, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
I’m not trying to beat the logical Nolo Contesto (#7) in this finale. He’s dropping to the lowest level of his career and is actually in better form than his recent results would suggest. He ran better than it appears first off the claim for Rob Atras when getting involved in a 5-horse duel for the lead. He pushed the pace on the far turn and won that battle, but proved susceptible to a pair of late runners in the stretch. Then last time the trip didn’t work out at all. He broke a step slowly, and rushed up to contest the pace. Just as he was securing his position towards the front, he got cut off into the far turn and checked significantly. He never recovered after that, but also was ridden conservatively through the lane. Now he’s facing a softer bunch, and shouldn’t mind stretching back out to 7 furlongs. He ran one of his best races in a while going this distance at Saratoga over the summer. He hasn’t tailed off as much as it might appear since then, and I view him as a likely winner of this race. I would primarily use him with Winter’s Ghost (#6), who also drops in class. He ran well two back when involved in the pace going a mile, and then last time was just pushed too hard on the front end through unreasonably fast fractions. That race was dominated by closers, so he deserves a pass for fading in the stretch. The slight turnback shouldn’t bother him too much, and he’s capable of beating this field if the good version of Nolo Contesto fails to show up. The others do little for me.
Fair Value:
#7 NOLO CONTESTO, at 2-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 9 - 10
Race 5: 9 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 11 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
I don’t have much of a knock against Autumn Evening (#4), who figures to be the clear favorite as she drops back into allowance company after trying graded stakes in her last couple of starts. She got mildly shuffled back after the start last time in a race that was dominated on the front end by superior sprinters. She’s handled a mile in the past, so the stretch-out shouldn’t be an issue for her. Todd Pletcher elects to take the blinkers off this time, but she should have the natural speed to race forwardly throughout. Linda Rice has entered a pair of 4-year-old fillies to face her, but both have to improve slightly. I prefer Luna Moth (#5), who put in a big effort to close from last at Saratoga last time against a pretty good field for the level. That was 7 furlongs, but she’s handled longer distances in the past. The bigger problem is that she just lacked any early speed in that recent start, so she has to find more of the tactical speed she has showed in the past. My top pick is Sweetest Princess (#3), who makes her first start off the claim for Fernando Abreu. This barn is 11 for 64 (17%, $2.79 ROI) with that move over the past 5 years, and it has to be taken as a good sign that Abreu is moving her up in class in her first start for his barn. Her recent form looks poor, but she’s not a turf horse, so I can excuse the last race. Prior to that, she was asked to go too far on July 11, and she’s not at her best when racing without Lasix so those races may not be representative of her form. She’s back in the right spot, and gets a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz.
Fair Value:
#3 SWEETEST PRINCESS, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
Most of the runners in this field are exiting the Oct. 5 race at this same level. Run Curtis Run (#1) won that day, but did so with an absolutely perfect trip, saving ground along the rail on the turn and sneaking through inside in the stretch. A repeat of that performance makes him a contender here, but now he’s drawn towards the outside with the same advantage he had last time. I’m not inclined to take a short price on him now that his form is exposed. Tall Paul (#9) was game to hold on for second behind that foe after setting the pace last time. He raced under Bob Baffert’s name that day, but now he goes out for John Terranova, who handles the Baffert horses in New York. He took to turf much better than his pedigree suggested he might, and he looks like the main speed. Runningwcissors (#10) is one of the few horses coming out of a different race, as he drops from open company. He might have the best turf form of anyone in this field, racing competitive against tougher rivals recently. However, he’s stuck in this far outside post and appears to have a wide trip coming. Russi (#3) wasn’t quite quick enough to get forward in that Oct. 5 affair, and then got further shuffled back when bumped on the backstretch. He was staying on well through the lane, but was hitting his best stride too late to make an impact. He has more tactical speed than that, and might be capable of pulling a better trip here from his inside post. My top pick is Icy Flavor (#7), who finished behind most of these rivals when fading to last in that Oct. 5 race. However, his trip was a total disaster. He broke well but wasn’t ridden aggressively early and then got bumped and checked hard, badly shuffled out of position heading into the far turn. He lost all chance at that point and could never recover. He had previously run a race over this course and distance in April that would make him a win candidate here. Now he’s second off a layoff getting a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche. His tactical speed should play well here and he figures to be an enticing price.
Fair Value:
#7 ICY FLAVOR, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 5
High Beta (#1), one of two Chad Brown trainees, took all the money on debut at the Meadowlands facing a group that looked ripe for the taking. While he disappointed in defeat, he actually ran better than the bare result suggests. He got away to a slow start, and was wide without cover while making a premature move, then just got turned away late while lugging in a bit. The third-place finisher from that race did come back to finish second in a maiden race here with a vastly improved performance next time. Chad Brown is 21 for 70 (30%, $2.42 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years, and I think he’s a major contender. I prefer him to Chad’s other runner Constitution Road (#4), who has a nice pedigree for distance. These types just so often need a race for this barn. Among the first time starters, I prefer Radauti (#5), a son of Tonalist who is a full-brother to multiple dirt stakes winner Drake’s Passage. However, the dam was a stakes-winning 2-year-old on turf, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this colt showed more turf preference than his two prior siblings. Christophe Clement is 17 for 80 (21%, $3.51 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf routes over 5 years. He obviously knows this pedigree and entered him on turf anyway. My top pick is Laird of Magnolia (#9), who makes his second turf attempt after outrunning his 89-1 odds in his first try on the surface last time. He obviously didn’t show much on debut, but he is bred to be a turf horse on the dam’s side and showed some preference for the surface last time. He actually broke pretty well but then got mildly shuffled out of position heading out of the chute before settling towards the back. He made some mild progress into the lane and was finishing decently across the wire before galloping out well. I get the sense we haven’t yet seen the best of this gelding and won’t be surprised when he shows more tactical speed here.
Fair Value:
#9 LAIRD OF MAGNOLIA, at 10-1 or greater
RACE 6
This surely came up tougher than your average first level allowance race. Possible favorite Timeout (#5) is dropping out of the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby where he actually attracted some support to go off at 10-1 odds. He failed to deliver his best effort that day, but the race flow didn’t suit his style after the pace failed to develop. He had previously been running speed figures that would make him awfully tough for this field to handle, but I wonder if he will be able to produce those numbers cutting back to a mile. He had blossomed around two turns, and his one-paced, plodding style may not suit this distance as well. Masmak (#11) should also attract support off a visually impressive maiden score last time, which earned him a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, that form was called into question when runner-up Upstanding returned to disappoint as a heavy favorite on Friday. Yo Daddy (#2) is another with a massive number in his recent past performances, earning a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his starter allowance victory in August. He’s raced on turf in both starts since then, and it turns out that just isn’t his preferred surface. He has a right to do better returning to dirt here, but I wonder if he will be as effective as he steps up against tougher company. Pentathlon (#3) was a minor disappointment at this level last time when he turned back to this distance after tiring going two turns in his prior start. However, he did move into a pretty fast pace in a race that ultimately went to a closer. He hasn’t quite gotten back to the effort he put forth in that decisive maiden score at Saratoga, but he’s run reasonably well in his two starts and his speed may play better here in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of pace. Global Perspective (#8) is an intriguing wild card who returns from a layoff for Chad Brown, who obviously has solid statistics with this move. This son of Tapit debuted in a very live maiden race during his 2-year-old season at Saratoga, defeated only by future Preakness winner Seize the Grey and Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. He’s been working steadily for his return and can factor here with routine improvement. My top pick is another last-out maiden winner. Commuted (#1) showed promise in his debut at Churchill Downs this summer, closing resolutely to finish a narrowly beaten third behind Brad Cox trainee Most Wanted, who has since gone on to win 4 races in a row, including the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby. He then lost all chance after a tough start at Saratoga, but he rebounded last time with a game maiden victory going 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs. The runner-up was leaning on him throughout the stretch run, and he did well to battle on for the victory despite getting put in tight quarters. He was then sold at auction for $150k, but now he goes out Flying P Stables and Rob Falcone. The new connections entered him against a tougher field in last week’s Discovery before scratching in favor of this spot instead.
Fair Value:
#1 COMMUTED, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
No Show Sammy Jo (#8) might be the horse to beat as she seeks her fifth consecutive victory for Graham Motion. She needed her debut experience going too short last year, but has been unstoppable since then despite missing nearly a year between the last last two seasons. She has gotten a little better with each race this year, beating a tough field off the layoff in May, and then last time pulling clear of the classy Atomic Blonde going 9 furlongs. Stretching out to this three-turn marathon distance is new territory for her, but she’s bred to go this far. Her second dam specialized at distances even beyond this, so there’s stamina in her pedigree. I just don’t know how short a price I would want to take on a horse who is trying this distance for the first time. The reliable options in here exit the Waya Stakes over this same course and distance. La Mehana (#5) got the job done that day, but that may have been the time to bet this mare, who was dismissed at a ridiculous 9-1 despite coming in with competitive form. She got a perfect trip from Kendrick Carmouche, who saved every bit of ground over a course that was kind to inside runners. She had some excuses prior to that victory, and has really come into her own for Christophe Clement late in the year. However, now she’s going to be a shorter price after her form is more exposed. The horse I prefer from the Waya is runner-up Immensitude (#11). She’s still looking for her first U.S. victory after 5 starts in this country. She had shown some promise overseas, and has been a mild disappointment since coming into Bill Mott’s barn. That said, she has taken steps in the right direction in her last couple of starts. Her runner-up effort in the Waya was her best yet, as she was attending a pace that came apart even though it was ostensibly slow. She might have just really appreciated stretching out in distance, since she had shown stamina in Europe. This post isn’t ideal, but she has the tactical speed to get forward in ar ace that doesn’t feature an abundance of pace.
Fair Value:
#11 IMMENSITUDE, at 7-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 12 - 7 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 8: 10 - 9 - 6 - 11
Race 9: 8 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 13 - 10 - 15 - 12
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I’m somewhat against possible favorite Illuminare (#5), who was disappointing as the favorite last time out in the Harrods Creek at Churchill. He had won his first level allowance condition convincingly in his prior start at Saratoga, but that was not a particularly strong field for the level. I didn’t like the way he finished last time, really shortening stride before the wire. The turnback to 6 furlongs may help him, but he has other speed inside of him. Mariachi (#2) figure to go forward from his inside post, and he should be competitive here if able to reproduce his last effort from Saratoga. He finally paired up top efforts, defeating Dilger, who actually finished ahead of Illuminare at Churchill. The runner-up from that race, Classify, also finished behind Reddington (#3) when he won his first level allowance condition in September. That was a strong race for the level, as third-place finisher General Banker came back to win. Reddington has really taken his game to the next level since adopting a stalking style in one-turn races. This further turnback to 6 furlongs is a question mark, but he may be able to handle it in his current form for the red-hot Ed Barker barn. My top pick is Awesome Native (#6), who returns from a layoff switching into the barn of Abigail Adsit, who hasn’t started a horse in over 5 years. She had success on the NYRA circuit going back to the mid-2010s, getting nearly 15% winners from over 500 starters between 2014 and 2016. She has apparently had this horse training up in Saratoga for another comeback from a layoff. We haven’t seen much of Awesome Native in the last year, but did run well in June when attempting to close against a speed bias. The outside post position should help this horse who sometimes has issues getting away from the gate. He’s certainly capable of beating this field with one of his good efforts.
Fair Value:
#6 AWESOME NATIVE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 4
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Lu’s Redemption (#8), who put in a pretty good effort to be fourth at this level last time. She had shown the ability to race effectively on dirt three back in that off the turf race going this distance at Saratoga. She stayed on willingly to just miss by a horse, running nearly as well as in her prior turf starts. Her last effort wasn’t quite as encouraging, but she did have to advance outside before flattening out late. She’s the one to beat, but I wouldn’t be too excited about taking a short price on her. The horse I want out of that Oct. 20 affair is the runner-up Dream On Cara (#7). It might be tough for some to take an 0 for 21 maiden, but this might be the right field for such a horse. If you were evaluating her based solely on her last race, she’s a standout in this group. She finished second against some rivals she meets here despite getting a pretty tough trip. She broke last in the field and then made a long, sustained bid down the backstretch, running up into third by the time the field was rounding the far turn. She continued to advance willingly, but ran out of room, as Ruben Silvera was forced to take her in hand approaching the quarter pole. She then tried to squeeze through a tight opening on the rail, losing some momentum before staying on for second. That effort was the best she’s put forth in a long time, and she’s handled this one-mile distance in the past.
Fair Value:
#7 DREAM ON CARA, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t have a major knock against Determinstic (#3), who is pretty logical based on his last few turf efforts. He had to settle for second in the Jockey Club Derby last time, but he just isn’t quite as good as stablemate Carson’s Run, who might have wanted that 11-furlong distance a little more. This slight turnback benefits him, and he figures to work out another good trip. I don’t see much upside with him, but he’s fairly reliable. Main rival Cugino (#2) may have a higher ceiling as he looks to rebound from an uncharacteristically poor effort last time at Kentucky Downs. Perhaps the 1 5/16 mile was too far for him, but he was never seriously involved from the midway point home, just not seeming to handle the surface. He ran much better two back at Churchill when setting the pace, but he’s unlikely to make the lead here with Bartlett (#1) sending from the inside. I think there are also some bigger prices to consider. Desvio (#5) may not be a win candidate, having been beaten by Determinsitic twice in a row. However, he had little chance given his trip in the Jockey Club Derby last time, as he was steadied out of position early, and then made a premature to push a fast pace before fading. He’s better than that, and can get a piece of this at a price. Chad Brown also sends out an intriguing pair, both making their stakes debuts. I prefer Right to Vote (#6), who figures to be the bigger price as he steps up in class off a maiden win. He obviously needs a step forward to beat this field, but I liked the progression he showed in that 3-year-old debut, where he also flashed improved tactical speed. I think it’s meaningful that Chad Brown is running him here, still being eligible for an N1X allowance. He seems like a horse that’s still figuring things out, and can take another step forward. I’m just not thrilled with the logical options, and he figures to be the right price for top connections.
Fair Value:
#6 RIGHT TO VOTE, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 7
I understand the merits of a horse like Magnificent Mile (#9), who has posted competitive speed figures in his last few starts. He’s just done his best work against softer company than this, and this feels like a more competitive starter allowance that he encountered last time. He’s also wheeling back on short rest, returning just 8 days after that hard effort last Friday. Sorority Prank (#6) might be a little more reliable after settling for third in his first attempt against winners at this level last time. Het set a fast pace that day and held on pretty well for third going one furlong farther than this. He might be tough for some to endorse as a win candidate given his 1 for 15 career mark, but he obviously fits here and regains winning rider Irad Ortiz. Screaming Uncle (#3) arguably ran just as well out of that same Oct. 19 race, since he had to go very wide on the far turn while attempting to launch a rally before flattening out late. He should appreciate the slight turnback to 7 furlongs, and is a danger if he runs as well in his second start for this new trainer. My top pick is Beaver State (#7), who steps up in class out of a maiden victory at Laurel. He was a pretty convincing winner that day, getting a confident ride into the lane before responding to pressure late. The runner-up and third-place finishers from that affair both came back to win with Lord of Mischief taking his next two starts in a row. This gelding had shown promise in his prior dirt starts, closing against a very strong field on debut at Ellis Park before getting fouled when attempting to rally two back. He seems to be putting it all together now, and I like that he’s shipping to New York to run in a protected spot. It also doesn’t hurt to pick up Dylan Davis.
Fair Value:
#7 BEAVER STATE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
Senbei (#9) is a deserving favorite as he seeks to notch his second stakes victory in a row after taking the Grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint last month. This 5-year-old has finally found his niche as a turf sprinter after losing his dirt form and then getting some difficult trips last year and earlier this season. The trip worked out to perfection last time as he relaxed off an honest and contested pace before pouncing in the stretch. He easily defeated favorite Nothing Better, striding out impressively before galloping out well clear of that group. A repeat of that performance will make him tough for this field to beat, the only downside being that he will be a shorter price now that his best form is exposed. Alogon (#6) was easily beaten by Senbei last time, but he had the slightly more difficult trip, chasing those two speeds while racing 3-wide without cover. He failed to get by Nothing Better in the stretch, but he’s probably better when he can relax behind horses and make one run. He should have a better opportunity to do that this time with Irad Ortiz taking over the reins, but he still has to get back to his better efforts from last season. I’m taking a shot against the favorite with a new face. Shefflin (#10) has done the majority of his best work on synthetic at Turfway Park, but he did make his winning career debut on turf last fall at Churchill Downs. He subsequently faced some softer allowance fields over the winter, but he ran very well when stepped up against stakes company when last seen in March. The Big Daddy Stakes at Turfway has been a key race, from which winner Candy Overload came back to win a stakes at Woodbine, and also-rans Our Shot and Here Mi Song also went on to achieve stakes success later in the season. Shefflin is returning from a layoff, but William Morey has pretty good statistics with those types, as well as with horses switching from synthetic to turf. There isn’t an abundance of speed in this race, and he should get a good stalking trip.
Fair Value:
#10 SHEFFLIN, at 9-2 or greater
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